Rasmussen (12/2, likely voters)
Chris Matthews (D): 43
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4.5%)
That object looming in Arlen Specter’s rearview mirror may in fact be as large as it appears… it’s Tweety’s giant head. The bluening of Pennsylvania seems to be continuing unabated, as Rasmussen’s first look at the 2010 senate race in Pennsylvania sees 28-year veteran Specter looking surprisingly weak against Matthews, a figure many would describe as ‘polarizing.’ Specter has an overall 60% favorability in the poll, but as much as Democrats seem willing to respect him (he gets a 48% favorable among Democrats, while only a 70% favorable among Republicans), they still seem to be in a 2006-08 mindset where they’d just rather vote for a Dem.
The 68 78-year-old Specter can’t be looking forward to a double gauntlet of Pat Toomey in the primary and now this. (Speaking of which, maybe Rasmussen should try polling the Specter vs. Toomey matchup.) For that matter, maybe Rasmussen should try polling some other Democrats (starting with Allyson Schwartz), in case the Chris Matthews noise turns out to be bluster.
Politico reports today that, on the one hand, Matthews is discussing the possibility of leaving MSNBC and relocating to Pennsylvania to focus on the race. But on the other hand, NBC insiders think it’s a ploy to renegotiate his contract, which expires in 2009. Right now, a renegotiation is not anticipated to be as rich as his current $5 million per year (and which will leave him lagging way behind fellow pundit Keith Olbermann)… threatening to run for Senate instead of jumping to another network is kind of a new wrinkle in the usual pattern, though.
UPDATE by Diego Infierno: Joe Sestak has withdrawn his name from consideration.
but I think it suggests that we need to find a stronger candidate than Matthews. I have little doubt that we will.
Wikipedia reports Arlen was born February 12, 1930. He’ll be 80 in time for the slugfest.
40-27, and 46-43. What they clearly agree upon is that Specter is unbelievably weak. If we run someone like Sestak or Schwarz the margins in Southeast PA will be incredible and we should win this. With Matthews, who knows.
I really don’t want him to run because he would be an embarrassment, even if he polls competitive with Arlen Specter. With that said, he won’t win the Democratic primary. Anything he said on Hardball can be used against him in campaign commercials, and it would be very effective. He heaped praise on George Bush and other Republicans when it was popular, and that won’t look good in 2010.
Isn’t her district likely to be carved up? That might provide some motivation.
Chris Matthews is literally three points behind Specter. Yet I’m still not convinced he’ll beat the long time serving Republican incumbent. The last media personality the party ran, Al Franken, is currently hanging onto hopes a recount could turn the tide in his favour, or possibly have the U.S Senate itself decide the election.
I don’t want to relive that experience. Pennsylvania has such a talented crop of political heavyweights, why the hell are they even considering running a carpetbagger, loud mouthed windbag like Chris Matthews?
Please, Keystone State, think about this!
I don’t think Matthews breaks 40% in a two person race, or 25% in a three way race. The misogyny alone will likely sink him, and the voting for Bush, lack of any notable Pennsylvania ties in the last thirty years and general incoherence will just make his defeat embarassing.
I could see Michael Doyle of PA-14 being a viable candidate (he’d probably clear up in Pittsburgh and environs, which would get him through a primary with two Philly candidates). He’s anti-abortion, though, so I personally wouldn’t favour it. I could also see Bob Brady making a go of it, although I think most of his congressional colleagues would beat him in the primary.
Otherwise, it’s kind of depressing how the congressmen being talked about are all recent entrants to the House. Shows how much Pennsylvania has been a disappointment in the past.
how others will fair if Matthews is only 3% down.
I will bank my apartment, car, and no sex for 2 years that Arlen or any GOPer including Toomey wins if Matthews is the Dem candidate.
If Matthews is runnign that clsoe to Specter it makes me think serious candidates liek Sestak, Schwartz, etc. might actually be ahead.
…is they strongly reflect name ID. Governors for example always rock very early polling. The most important thing however to look at is negatives. And even then in the case of someone like Matthews who is known but only superficially known you still have to look at the high potential for those negatives to rise.
Matthews ia very personable and engaging. He is one of those folks who just enjoys talking with people and he’d make a great campaigner. I have no doubt if you put him into a room of senior citizens he could charm them.
But part of his shtick as a host is being a provacateur. He takes positions just to get his guests to react. Or sometimes seemingly just because he enjoys the sound of his own voice. He has as much if not more statements than Franken waiting to be mined by the opposition.
He’s better than some people we’ve thrown at Specter but we certainly have people on the Democratic deck (paging Ed Rendell) who’d do FAR stronger and present fewer risks.
Particularly since I could easily see this scenario playing out. Specter bows out, Tom Ridge comes in.
Overall I kind of like Arlen. While I’m a diehard Democrat, he one the 5 or so Republican Senators that I respect. I only remember one time being truly mad at him, and that goes back to the line of questioning concerning Anita Hill in the Clarence Thomas hearings for Supreme Court Justice.
He’s shown signs of working with Democrats in some progressive causes, and he generally appears to be pro-choice. He also did not vote “yea” in the Clinton impeachment trial. I think he voted something like “not proven”, but his vote was cast as “nay”.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d vote for a strong Democrat over Specter, but Specter all in all has not been an awful Senator.
I will not support Chris Matthews. I don’t care what any poll says. I will fight for whoever is challenging him in the primary.
Remember that Arlen Specter has had a recurrence of Hodgins Disease in less than four years. The prognosis for men over 40 years old with his stage III Hodgins is not good. Democrats better start thinking about this seat right now as Governor Rendell may make an appointment BEFORE the 2010 election. And my bet is that he will NOT appoint Cris Matthews.
I like Specter but he is too old…
REALIST
will be a Senator from PA. Maybe he is trying to muscle his way in but if he is the Dem nominee, expect the Republicans to get Jim Gerlach or some top pol to whack him. If Matthews doensn’t run or actually loses and Specter retires, I still expect Jim Gerlach or Charlie Dent to make the run; Dems should go with Patrick Murphy or even Ed Rendell or another statewide office holder. Matthews would throw the seat away in the Philly suburbs where elections are won or lost in PA.
and he doesn’t have a Philly accent.
Yes, there are places where that would matter.