Tag: Chris Matthews

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/8-10, likely voters):

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 43

Pat Toomey (R): 28

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±5%)

Chris Matthews (D): 24

Patrick Murphy (D): 19

Allyson Schwartz (D): 15

Undecided: 42

(MoE: ±5%)

Chris Matthews (D): 28

Patrick Murphy (D): 21

Undecided: 51

Chris Matthews (D): 30

Allyson Schwartz (D): 18

Undecided: 52

Patrick Murphy (D): 23

Allyson Schwartz (D): 20

Undecided: 57

Chris Matthews (D): 44

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±4%)

Patrick Murphy (D): 36

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 48

Allyson Schwartz (D): 35

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 49

Chris Matthews (D): 46

Pat Toomey (R): 35

Patrick Murphy (D): 44

Pat Toomey (R): 36

Allyson Schwartz (D): 42

Pat Toomey (R): 36

Every possible configuration of the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race you can imagine is here, courtesy of Research 2000 for Daily Kos. Arlen Specter can’t be liking what he’s seeing. Thanks to Rasmussen last week, we already knew that Specter was vulnerable against Chris Matthews (they found Specter up 46-43). R2K finds an even closer race in that configuration, with Reps. Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz trailing Specter by 10+ points but holding him below 50%. (Consider this mostly a measure of name recognition at this point; Matthews has a national platform, but Murphy and Schwartz are little known outside their districts and right now are basically “generic D.”)

But guess who else is holding Specter below 50%? Pat Toomey, who looks to be taking the controls for yet another kamikaze mission by the Club for Growth. If the free-market fundamentalist Toomey wins the primary, the general is effectively over, with even Murphy and Schwartz thumping him in head-to-head matchups.

Considering that Specter won the primary against Toomey in 2004 by only 2 points (with a slightly different-looking Pennsylvania GOP, where many of the remaining moderates hadn’t yet jumped ship), Toomey winning the primary this time is a distinct possibility, given a Republican base with an even purer, less diluted conservatism. Specter pulls in only 43% in the primary matchup, which points to the balancing act he’ll have to negotiate in the next two years: either burnish his RINO credentials and support most of the Obama agenda in order to survive the 2010 general, or join the southern GOP rump’s obstructionist efforts in order to survive the 2010 primary. I believe the technical term for such a situation is “damned if you do, damned if you don’t.”

Rasmussen (12/2, likely voters)

Chris Matthews (D): 43

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That object looming in Arlen Specter’s rearview mirror may in fact be as large as it appears… it’s Tweety’s giant head. The bluening of Pennsylvania seems to be continuing unabated, as Rasmussen’s first look at the 2010 senate race in Pennsylvania sees 28-year veteran Specter looking surprisingly weak against Matthews, a figure many would describe as ‘polarizing.’ Specter has an overall 60% favorability in the poll, but as much as Democrats seem willing to respect him (he gets a 48% favorable among Democrats, while only a 70% favorable among Republicans), they still seem to be in a 2006-08 mindset where they’d just rather vote for a Dem.

The 68 78-year-old Specter can’t be looking forward to a double gauntlet of Pat Toomey in the primary and now this. (Speaking of which, maybe Rasmussen should try polling the Specter vs. Toomey matchup.) For that matter, maybe Rasmussen should try polling some other Democrats (starting with Allyson Schwartz), in case the Chris Matthews noise turns out to be bluster.

Politico reports today that, on the one hand, Matthews is discussing the possibility of leaving MSNBC and relocating to Pennsylvania to focus on the race. But on the other hand, NBC insiders think it’s a ploy to renegotiate his contract, which expires in 2009. Right now, a renegotiation is not anticipated to be as rich as his current $5 million per year (and which will leave him lagging way behind fellow pundit Keith Olbermann)… threatening to run for Senate instead of jumping to another network is kind of a new wrinkle in the usual pattern, though.

UPDATE by Diego Infierno: Joe Sestak has withdrawn his name from consideration.