Q-Poll: Specter Plastered by Toomey

Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey 41 – 27 percent in a Republican primary for the 2010 Senate race, with 28 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Moreover:

Voters approve 52 – 33 percent of the job Specter is doing, with a 71 – 16 percent positive score from Democrats and a 41 – 37 percent boost from independent voters, off-setting a 52 – 36 percent disapproval from Republicans. This is Specter’s highest approval among Democrats and lowest approval among Republicans since Quinnipiac University began polling Pennsylvania in 2002.

Even Better:

Pennsylvania’s junior Senator Robert Casey gets a 52 – 23 percent approval rating. The Democrat’s 35 – 39 percent score among Republicans is better than Specter’s negative score.

Wow.

The meaning of all of this? Unless Specter is able to carve out a miraculous recovery with Republicans, he is apparently on a path to committing political suicide by primary next May.

These numbers suggest that he should have either switched parties or gone directly to the independent route–which I think his favorability numbers suggest he probably could have used to win.

This is frankly a little bit unreal. I thought Specter might be behind or a little bit weak in the Republican primary, but these numbers suggest that he has no chance at all. We need a real Democrat in this race, so I really hope Joe Torsella is up to raising they money.

58 thoughts on “Q-Poll: Specter Plastered by Toomey”

  1. But he is certainly burning. Voting against Card Check probably isn’t enough to save him him the primary and even if it did he is screwed for the general – those D and I approvals will disappear without the support of labor. The only chance he has is if Toomey backs off now Specter has promised to vote the Club way but I have to say from his statement that looks unlikely.

  2. …now that he’s stabbed them in the back, they should register remembers as Republicans to vote AGAINST him in the primary.

  3. Seems crystal clear from these numbers that the smart play for Specter, politically speaking, would be to switch parties and support Employee Free Choice.  With Rendell’s and labor’s backing, I think he would have either cleared the D primary field or crushed any opposition and also rolled in the general.  But, he obviously made a conscious decision not to go that way with his announced opposition to EFCA.  I can’t see how opposing EFCA is gonna help him in anything other than the R primary and doubt it will do much good there either.  By opposing EFCA, Specter seems to have shut the door on running as a D and will have a harder time running as an I.

  4. who voted for Specter in large numbers in the Philly area switched parties in large numbers to vote for Obama or Clinton in 2008 and stayed Democrats.  Since it takes effort to switch back for Specter, most of them won’t.

    The other base for Specter is the traditional Repubs in Central PA, who backed Specter in large part because Bush and Santorum endorsed him.  Those endorsements are gone.

    Specter is done.  Even if it is Toomey, Luskik, and Specter, Toomey will win the primary.

  5. should consider getting in now.  She is one candidate that could completely neutralize Specter in Philly metro, and more likely crush Toomey there.

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