Seven Southern Senate Seats

When reading about the top targets for Democrats in the Senate, most point to the same five seats that will receive much of DSCC money and recruiting attention (Colorado, New Hampshire, Maine, Oregon, Minnesota) and the possible open seats (Virginia, Nebraska, New Mexico, Mississippi). 

However, I’ve been most interested in a group of seven seats that should be aggressively challenged.  Of these seven incumbents, four of them are seeking their first re-election bid, one is off his rocker and needs to be videotaped for the next 18 months, one is the Leader of his Party, and the other seems headed for a showdown with one of the Netroots’ biggest 08 sensations that many of us learned of from a live chat with DSCC Chair Schumer.

Now, not a single one of these seats will be easy to win.  In each case, it would seem that the Democratic challenger would enter as a slight or even sizable underdog – that is fine.  We cannot follow the 2006 success stories (which gave the country Sens. Tester and Webb, among others) with uninspired sacrificial lambs, just because these states are tough territory.  And, even though the chances of winning all of these seats at the moment seems slim, we would at the very least make the GOP spend money in these states and not for Republican candidates in the Top 5 targets or against Landrieu.  Also, an aggressive statewide run that is well-organized would position these potential candidates, if unsuccessful in 2008, for future runs.  Some of these races have an active online presence trying to draft candidates or just talk up the races, but others are pretty silent.  If anyone knows of information on any of these races, please share.  Info on possible Democratic candidates, those who aren’t interested, or just general dynamics of the race will be greatly appreciated!!

Here is a rundown of each state:

NORTH CAROLINA – Elizabeth Dole.

Senator Dole was elected in 2002 against Clinton aide Erskine Bowles, 54% to 45%.  She is known to not really know her way around NC; however, she seems kind enough to visit the state she represents in Senate every few years.  Many believe that she is very vulnerable and has on several occasions polled below 50%.

Possible Challengers:
Congressman Brad Miller
Attorney General Roy Cooper.

A ‘Draft Miller’ campaign has been active for quite a while and has caught the attention of many, including Brad Miller.  AG Cooper stated earlier that he intended to run for re-election, but recent polling has showed him as a favorable challenger against Dole.

Others:
State Senator Kay Hagan
State Representative Grier Martin

If Miller and Cooper decline to run, State Senator Kay Hagan might become interested.

TEXAS – John Cornyn.

Senator Cornyn was elected in 2002 against Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, 55% to 43%.  Box Turtle is one of most unpopular Senators in the nation and has also consistently polled below 50%.

Potential Challengers:
State Representative Rick Noriega
Congressman Nick Lampson
Mikal Watts, attorney

A ‘Draft Rick’ movement is in place to persuade Lt. Col. Noriega that he would have the necessary support to challenge Cornyn.  Congressman Lampson is in a very red district that would be a challenge to defend in 2008, though his district is not as red as the one Chet Edwards represents, but still very difficult.  He has stated that he is seriously looking at the race.  Mikal Watts recently raised $1.1 million for the DSCC and seems to be very interested in the race.  Regardless of the nominee, the big fundraisers in the state have promised to raise a vast amount of money to challenge Cornyn with.  Hopefully that isn’t under the condition that they get to pick the nominee and keep out potentially more attractive candidates.

Others:
John Sharp, fmr. Land Commissioner
State Representative Pete Gallego

Sharp’s name keeps getting thrown around and he might jump in, but I only think he does if Lampson/Watts stay out and that does not seem very likely.  He might try for a 2010 race, instead.  Rep. Gallego is a great legislator and definitely should be looking at a statewide within the next two cycles, but I?m not sure if he risks getting in this primary.

ALABAMA – Jeff Sessions.

Probable Challenger:
Agriculture and Industries Commissioner Ron Sparks.

‘Sparksmania!’ hit the internet a few months back and the excitement for this man has spread like wild fire.  All signs indicate that he will probably go for it and challenge Senator Sessions.  Awesome.

OKLAHOMA – Jim Inhofe.

Governor Brad Henry, Attorney General Drew Edmondson, and Congressman Boren have all turned down the race, leaving Oklahoma Democrats searching for a challenger.  It seems that they might have found one.

Potential Challenger:
State Senator Andrew Rice

Rice has become one of Oklahoma?s rising political stars and seems destined for a bright future.  If his fellow Okie Democrats aren?t willing to take on Inhofe (whether because they are waiting to take on Coburn, replace Henry, or fight a poultry battle), then I see no reason for Senator Rice to not take the fight to Inhofe.  He is also getting some press about a possible run (as well as a draft website) and met with Schumer recently at a DSCC fundraiser in Dallas. A strong contrast can be a good thing in a political battle and this would be contest between two opposites.  Also, it seems to be an absolute certainty that Inhofe will say at least one or thirty things to piss off and offend various groups of people.  Keep a videotape on him at all times and we?re sure to see dozens of Inhofe YouTube hits.  I hope he decides to do it.

KENTUCKY – Mitch McConnell.

Since getting elected in ’84, McConnell has not had to endure too many tough battles and he isn?t extremely loved in his state, either.  His choice for governor was defeated last night and there are even mentions of a possible primary challenge.  The DSCC has already mentioned this race as a possible target.

Potential Challengers:
Charlie Owen
Greg Stumbo
Jonathan Miller
Bruce Lunsford

Prior to the gubernatorial primary, Owen was the only name that was routinely said to be very interested in the race.  However, I expect a few more names to be making the rounds, very shortly.  Greg Stumbo has been included in some polling, along with unlikely (but very likely for 2010) challenger Ben Chandler.  Bruce Lunsford might have chosen to be more graceful in his exit this time around because he was looking for goodwill within the Party for a run next year.  Jonathan Miller is young and is a favorite among the netroots, his exit from the primary was also lauded and will be remembered; however, some believe that he might be rewarded by Beshear with the State Party Chairmanship.

GEORGIA – Saxby Chambliss.

Chambliss had an unexpected victory in 2002, when he defeated decorated veteran Max Cleland by using reprehensible ads superimposing images of Hussein and bin Laden onto Cleland.  I thought there would be more of a call for revenge and reclaiming this seat, but so far things have been quiet.  All we really know is that Sen. Cleland will not be seeking a re-match.

Potential Challengers:
Congressman Jim Marshall
Jim Butler, attorney
Cathy Cox, fmr. Secretary of State

Okay, so we do have Vernon Jones.  Now let’s discuss serious challengers.  Marshall has recently been mentioned as being much more interested in this race, due to the attempts of the NRCC to recruit Army Major Rick Goddard for Marshall’s seat.  His re-election in his district is nowhere near a certainty, so a statewide run might actually be worth it.  Attorney Jim Butler’s name had been making the rounds earlier in the cycle, but I have not heard any follow-up info.  Has he declined to run or made any noise at all?  He seemed like an interesting candidate and could self-fund.  Cathy Cox did not run the best of campaigns last year for governor, but her name was also making the rounds.  However, I believe she recently accepted a job (what the job actually is is escaping me, University Presidency somewhere?) and might not be in the running anymore.

TENNESSEE – Lamar! Alexander.

Lamar! lost his Whip race and might be vulnerable to a challenge.  This would be his first re-election campaign (although he was obviously Governor in the late 70s-early 80s) and might test whether he really wants it.  He announced last month that he will seek re-election.  I know that this isn’t a first or second-tier race, but I think there might be an opening with the right type of challenger.  What would be the strategy to making Lamar! sweat?

Potential Challengers:
Bill Purcell, mayor of Nashville
Bob Tuke, fmr. State Party Chair
State Senator Rosalind Kurita
Tipper Gore
Harold Ford, fmr. Congressman

Ford is the wildcard and seems to not want to get in, he might possibly run for Governor in 2010 or maybe even a Cabinet post.  He made waves earlier in the cycle by saying he was looking at the race, but has backed off since then.  Purcell’s political career doesn?t feel like it will be through after his mayoralty and the primary for Governor in 2010 might prove to be very crowded, so a run here might make sense.  Not sure what in the hell Kurita was thinking throwing Republicans the Senate Presidency, but maybe future aspirations were in at work?  I know she was made Pro-Tem, but is that what she was really gunning for?  I’m not sure how she will now play to the Democratic primary voters, so this might not be plausible anymore, but we should keep our eye on her. If not this race, maybe she’ll make a Congressional run against Blackburn?  Tipper’s name has been thrown around (like in ’02) and I have no idea how seriously to take the idea, but I thought I’d include her.  No doubt she?d be formidable, but don’t really know if she has any political aspirations.  Bob Tuke (who I?m not very familiar with) has been said to be a pitbull and recently ended his tenure as State Chair.  Did he step down to run for an upcoming race, or was it the end of his term?  Would his personality play well in Tennessee? 

Well, there you have it.  North Carolina, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Georgia, and Tennessee.  Any info on these seven races, possible challengers, gossip, anything at all would be great!!!!