Author: Anesthetic

Senate 08 – Fill in the Blanks

There are still many Senate races that are up in the air, without a Democratic challenger, or without the preferred Democratic challenger.  I thought it would be interesting to get a pulse on what the SSP community has in mind, as far as predictions on how these races will develop in the coming months.

 

As I see it, there are currently four races where the Democratic candidates are, for all intents and purposes, agreed upon:

Colorado – Mark Udall
Maine – Tom Allen
Idaho – Larry La Rocco
Oklahoma – Andrew Rice

I believe there are also currently three races where the primary is already set and will look exactly like it does now on primary day:

Texas – Noriega v. Watts
Minnesota – Franken v. Ciresi
Oregon – Merkley v. Novick

The “Unknowns” are:

New Hampshire – Does Shaheen jump in?  If so, do the other three all jump out?

Virginia – Sure Warner is retiring, but is it a certainty that our Warner decides to run?

Nebraska – What the hell?  If Hagel retires, does Kerrey get in or does Fahey?  Is it possible that both would decline on a Hagel-less race and pass the torch to Kleeb already?

Corruption:

Alaska – The possibility that Stevens will face an aggressive primary challenge is looming large.  Will Begich decide to go for it?  Will Stevens just decide to call it quits?

New Mexico – Is Don Wiviott really who Democrats are going to rally behind?  Is the possibility of Madrid getting in the race almost gone?  Is a Chavez/Denish gubernatorial primary already set, or will one get in this one?

Southern seats:

Kentucky – Stumbo seems to be itching for a fight and give Mitch some hell.  Will KY Dems let him have at it, or will Charlie Owen and Andrew Horne get in the mix too?

North Carolina – Easley, Cooper and Miller are all no-go’s, earlier talk seemed to surround Grier Martin or Kay Hagan making the challenge – what happened there?  Is an announcement coming from either, or will NC Dems have to find another prospect to challenge Liddy?

Mississippi – Does everyone agree that Cochran is staying put? Damn.

Competitive, or not?
Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Kansas, Wyoming 1 and 2:  Do any of these get top Democrats to compete, or are these the sacrificial lamb races?  Will Sparks rethink his earlier statements regarding the race?  Do Dems decide to let their progress in Kansas stall and not put up an aggressive challenger to Roberts?

I’m really just curious what everyone thinks these 22 races will look like on, let’s say, New Year’s.  Who gets in, who gets out, and which Repubs will ultimately get a pass.  Also, which Dems have the edge in their respective primary races.

Thanks and I look forward to the responses!

Seven Southern Senate Seats

When reading about the top targets for Democrats in the Senate, most point to the same five seats that will receive much of DSCC money and recruiting attention (Colorado, New Hampshire, Maine, Oregon, Minnesota) and the possible open seats (Virginia, Nebraska, New Mexico, Mississippi). 

However, I’ve been most interested in a group of seven seats that should be aggressively challenged.  Of these seven incumbents, four of them are seeking their first re-election bid, one is off his rocker and needs to be videotaped for the next 18 months, one is the Leader of his Party, and the other seems headed for a showdown with one of the Netroots’ biggest 08 sensations that many of us learned of from a live chat with DSCC Chair Schumer.

Now, not a single one of these seats will be easy to win.  In each case, it would seem that the Democratic challenger would enter as a slight or even sizable underdog – that is fine.  We cannot follow the 2006 success stories (which gave the country Sens. Tester and Webb, among others) with uninspired sacrificial lambs, just because these states are tough territory.  And, even though the chances of winning all of these seats at the moment seems slim, we would at the very least make the GOP spend money in these states and not for Republican candidates in the Top 5 targets or against Landrieu.  Also, an aggressive statewide run that is well-organized would position these potential candidates, if unsuccessful in 2008, for future runs.  Some of these races have an active online presence trying to draft candidates or just talk up the races, but others are pretty silent.  If anyone knows of information on any of these races, please share.  Info on possible Democratic candidates, those who aren’t interested, or just general dynamics of the race will be greatly appreciated!!

Here is a rundown of each state:

NORTH CAROLINA – Elizabeth Dole.

Senator Dole was elected in 2002 against Clinton aide Erskine Bowles, 54% to 45%.  She is known to not really know her way around NC; however, she seems kind enough to visit the state she represents in Senate every few years.  Many believe that she is very vulnerable and has on several occasions polled below 50%.

Possible Challengers:
Congressman Brad Miller
Attorney General Roy Cooper.

A ‘Draft Miller’ campaign has been active for quite a while and has caught the attention of many, including Brad Miller.  AG Cooper stated earlier that he intended to run for re-election, but recent polling has showed him as a favorable challenger against Dole.

Others:
State Senator Kay Hagan
State Representative Grier Martin

If Miller and Cooper decline to run, State Senator Kay Hagan might become interested.

TEXAS – John Cornyn.

Senator Cornyn was elected in 2002 against Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, 55% to 43%.  Box Turtle is one of most unpopular Senators in the nation and has also consistently polled below 50%.

Potential Challengers:
State Representative Rick Noriega
Congressman Nick Lampson
Mikal Watts, attorney

A ‘Draft Rick’ movement is in place to persuade Lt. Col. Noriega that he would have the necessary support to challenge Cornyn.  Congressman Lampson is in a very red district that would be a challenge to defend in 2008, though his district is not as red as the one Chet Edwards represents, but still very difficult.  He has stated that he is seriously looking at the race.  Mikal Watts recently raised $1.1 million for the DSCC and seems to be very interested in the race.  Regardless of the nominee, the big fundraisers in the state have promised to raise a vast amount of money to challenge Cornyn with.  Hopefully that isn’t under the condition that they get to pick the nominee and keep out potentially more attractive candidates.

Others:
John Sharp, fmr. Land Commissioner
State Representative Pete Gallego

Sharp’s name keeps getting thrown around and he might jump in, but I only think he does if Lampson/Watts stay out and that does not seem very likely.  He might try for a 2010 race, instead.  Rep. Gallego is a great legislator and definitely should be looking at a statewide within the next two cycles, but I?m not sure if he risks getting in this primary.

ALABAMA – Jeff Sessions.

Probable Challenger:
Agriculture and Industries Commissioner Ron Sparks.

‘Sparksmania!’ hit the internet a few months back and the excitement for this man has spread like wild fire.  All signs indicate that he will probably go for it and challenge Senator Sessions.  Awesome.

OKLAHOMA – Jim Inhofe.

Governor Brad Henry, Attorney General Drew Edmondson, and Congressman Boren have all turned down the race, leaving Oklahoma Democrats searching for a challenger.  It seems that they might have found one.

Potential Challenger:
State Senator Andrew Rice

Rice has become one of Oklahoma?s rising political stars and seems destined for a bright future.  If his fellow Okie Democrats aren?t willing to take on Inhofe (whether because they are waiting to take on Coburn, replace Henry, or fight a poultry battle), then I see no reason for Senator Rice to not take the fight to Inhofe.  He is also getting some press about a possible run (as well as a draft website) and met with Schumer recently at a DSCC fundraiser in Dallas. A strong contrast can be a good thing in a political battle and this would be contest between two opposites.  Also, it seems to be an absolute certainty that Inhofe will say at least one or thirty things to piss off and offend various groups of people.  Keep a videotape on him at all times and we?re sure to see dozens of Inhofe YouTube hits.  I hope he decides to do it.

KENTUCKY – Mitch McConnell.

Since getting elected in ’84, McConnell has not had to endure too many tough battles and he isn?t extremely loved in his state, either.  His choice for governor was defeated last night and there are even mentions of a possible primary challenge.  The DSCC has already mentioned this race as a possible target.

Potential Challengers:
Charlie Owen
Greg Stumbo
Jonathan Miller
Bruce Lunsford

Prior to the gubernatorial primary, Owen was the only name that was routinely said to be very interested in the race.  However, I expect a few more names to be making the rounds, very shortly.  Greg Stumbo has been included in some polling, along with unlikely (but very likely for 2010) challenger Ben Chandler.  Bruce Lunsford might have chosen to be more graceful in his exit this time around because he was looking for goodwill within the Party for a run next year.  Jonathan Miller is young and is a favorite among the netroots, his exit from the primary was also lauded and will be remembered; however, some believe that he might be rewarded by Beshear with the State Party Chairmanship.

GEORGIA – Saxby Chambliss.

Chambliss had an unexpected victory in 2002, when he defeated decorated veteran Max Cleland by using reprehensible ads superimposing images of Hussein and bin Laden onto Cleland.  I thought there would be more of a call for revenge and reclaiming this seat, but so far things have been quiet.  All we really know is that Sen. Cleland will not be seeking a re-match.

Potential Challengers:
Congressman Jim Marshall
Jim Butler, attorney
Cathy Cox, fmr. Secretary of State

Okay, so we do have Vernon Jones.  Now let’s discuss serious challengers.  Marshall has recently been mentioned as being much more interested in this race, due to the attempts of the NRCC to recruit Army Major Rick Goddard for Marshall’s seat.  His re-election in his district is nowhere near a certainty, so a statewide run might actually be worth it.  Attorney Jim Butler’s name had been making the rounds earlier in the cycle, but I have not heard any follow-up info.  Has he declined to run or made any noise at all?  He seemed like an interesting candidate and could self-fund.  Cathy Cox did not run the best of campaigns last year for governor, but her name was also making the rounds.  However, I believe she recently accepted a job (what the job actually is is escaping me, University Presidency somewhere?) and might not be in the running anymore.

TENNESSEE – Lamar! Alexander.

Lamar! lost his Whip race and might be vulnerable to a challenge.  This would be his first re-election campaign (although he was obviously Governor in the late 70s-early 80s) and might test whether he really wants it.  He announced last month that he will seek re-election.  I know that this isn’t a first or second-tier race, but I think there might be an opening with the right type of challenger.  What would be the strategy to making Lamar! sweat?

Potential Challengers:
Bill Purcell, mayor of Nashville
Bob Tuke, fmr. State Party Chair
State Senator Rosalind Kurita
Tipper Gore
Harold Ford, fmr. Congressman

Ford is the wildcard and seems to not want to get in, he might possibly run for Governor in 2010 or maybe even a Cabinet post.  He made waves earlier in the cycle by saying he was looking at the race, but has backed off since then.  Purcell’s political career doesn?t feel like it will be through after his mayoralty and the primary for Governor in 2010 might prove to be very crowded, so a run here might make sense.  Not sure what in the hell Kurita was thinking throwing Republicans the Senate Presidency, but maybe future aspirations were in at work?  I know she was made Pro-Tem, but is that what she was really gunning for?  I’m not sure how she will now play to the Democratic primary voters, so this might not be plausible anymore, but we should keep our eye on her. If not this race, maybe she’ll make a Congressional run against Blackburn?  Tipper’s name has been thrown around (like in ’02) and I have no idea how seriously to take the idea, but I thought I’d include her.  No doubt she?d be formidable, but don’t really know if she has any political aspirations.  Bob Tuke (who I?m not very familiar with) has been said to be a pitbull and recently ended his tenure as State Chair.  Did he step down to run for an upcoming race, or was it the end of his term?  Would his personality play well in Tennessee? 

Well, there you have it.  North Carolina, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Georgia, and Tennessee.  Any info on these seven races, possible challengers, gossip, anything at all would be great!!!!

Questions about Draft Movements, People-Powered Candidates, and 08 Senate races

In every cycle, the DSCC has a handful of targets that it aggressively focuses on, along with any Democratic Senators that might be deemed vulnerable.  However, there are also those races that escape the DSCC’s radar for a little while (or a long while) and are vehemently trumpeted by the netroots and grassroots.  My question is, in those cases of netroots and grassroots joining hands and backing a candidate, how effective do these efforts tend to be?  Or are there not enough examples, due to the young lifespan of the netroots, to really know for sure? 

We all point out (correctly, I might add, as many have praised these efforts, including DSCC Chair Schumer) that Jon Tester and Jim Webb were greatly benefited by the efforts of the netroots/grassroots – “people powered”-candidates, if you will.  So, if 2006 was a starting point, can these types of efforts be effectively spread out to several states?  How early do they need to begin and what tools are most useful in persuading a potential candidate to make the jump?  Or are draft movements even the best way to go about getting an attractive candidate in?  Also, in presidential years it seems that the most well-known possibilities in red states are very cautious about jumping in, so these movements seem to focus on less conventional nominees, am I correct in that observation?  I will run down what I believe to the DSCC’s current top priorities, races that have heir apparents upon the retirement of an incumbent, and then 7 races that I believe would benefit from a candidate in the mold of Senators Tester and Webb.

It seems that the DSCC has five definite targets, at this point in the cycle, although each race has different dynamics going on.

COLORADO – Mark Udall, who seems well on his way to a cleared primary.

MAINE – Tom Allen, is expected to announce shortly and will also have no serious opposition.

NEW HAMPSHIRE – Steve Marchand and Katrina Swett are already announced candidates but could defer if the DSCC is successful in getting Jeanne Shaheen to run.  Either way, this will remain a top pick-up opportunity.

MINNESOTA – Al Franken and Mike Ciresi are in, however, there remains the possibility of an announcement being made by a state legislator.

OREGON – Speaking of draft movements, a very well-known one is underway to convince Pete DeFazio to make the jump.  In the meantime, Steve Novick has announced and, if DeFazio declines, Earl Blumenauer will be the next to be courted by the DSCC.

Those five races seem to be DSCC targets and will probably remain among their top priorities throughout the cycle.

Then there are these next four seats that could possibly become open and, in that event, likely gain heavy attention from the DSCC.

VIRGINIA – Mark Warner has been making waves about getting in and John Warner has been making waves about getting out.

NEW MEXICO – Richardson will either be on the ticket or Sec. of State, Udall or Chavez seem to only jump if it’s indeed open, Homans seems intent on going after Wilson, but Madrid might make the jump.

NEBRASKA – If Hagel is out, Fahey seems to be in.  If Fahey declines, then expect a netroots-driven draft movement to get Scott Kleeb to run.

MISSISSIPPI – It seems a little less likely that Cochran will retire, but Mike Moore goes in if he does.

That leaves what I believe to be a group of seven states that have incumbents that might be more vulnerable than pundits seem to believe and are also ripe for “people powered”-candidates in the mold of a Tester or a Webb. In fact, many of these states already have draft movements underway.  In the other four, I’m seeking information on whether a draft movement would even work in those states and, if so, what potential candidates (but still realistic) would be able to knock off the incumbent.

1)  NORTH CAROLINA – Brad Miller.  A draft movement has been going on for months (led by blue south, I believe) and seems to be gaining much traction.  Miller has recently stated having serious interest in the race.

2)  ALABAMA – Ron Sparks.  Sparks was mentioned in Schumer’s advice thread at dKos and has been the center of much attention since.  He also has shown interest and will make an announcement,  regarding his decision, soon.

3)  TEXAS – Rick Noriega.  Also a subject of netroots support.  The Texas House is currently in session, so, understandably, no announcement is expected until after May, from any Texas legislators.

Then there are the four states that a populist candidate could make it a competitive election.

4)  OKLAHOMA – The big names (Henry, Edmondson, Boren) have been contacted and declined, for various reasons.  State Senator Andrew Rice would be a great prospect for a draft movement.  Are there any indications he’s open to it?

5)  TENNESSE – Bredesen either thinks he’s on someone’s VP list, or doesn’t want to leave his office open to the GOP Senate Pres.  If Ford doesn’t jump in, would there be any chance of persuading Nashville mayor Bill Purcell to get in?  Are there any other Tennessee Dems that have been under the radar, but would be great for this race?

6)  KENTUCKY – Any progress on the U.S. Senate race will probably have to wait until the gubernatorial primary is over.  Who do Kentuckians want to see in this race?  Is Owen really the assumed nominee?

7)  GEORGIA – After Saxby’s distasteful 02 campaign, it would seem that this race would be getting more attention.  Anyone heard of attorney Jim Butler’s plans?

Others:
IDAHO – Larry LaRocco is our nominee, whether Craig is the nominee or not.

ALASKA – I wish Mark Begich could be persuaded to make this race, even if just for the added benefits of higher name ID for the 2010 race against Lisa Murkowski.

WYOMING, KANSAS, and SOUTH CAROLINA – No clue on any of these three.  Trauner might go for a House rematch, Sebelius won’t go for it, and I have no real knowledge about SC politics, so there’s that, lol.

So, what say you?  Are the seven races I identified actual possibilities?  Are there potential candidates that have been showing any level of interest, not just being mentioned as pipe dreams?  I know that we should all be backing our candidates, even if they are already going to have the full-backing of the DSCC, but it seems that if the more “longshot” of races were the ones that the grassroots and netroots spent most of their attention on, that would benefit all involved and expand our playing field.

I know I haven’t said anything that hasn’t already been touched upon, but I am just really interested in how candidates are drafted into the tougher races and how much success such efforts are met with.

(Also, this is my first diary, so pardon the length and lack of proper editing skills, lol.)