After spinning our wheels for months in the recruitment process against GOP Sen. Richard Burr, it looks like Democrats have a strong chance of enticing North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marhsall to jump into the race. In an interview with Hotline On Call, Marshall stresses that Burr, being both “beatable” and “worse than Mrs. Dole”, is shaping up to be an appealing target, but it’s going to come down to money:
NC Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) is seriously considering a run for NC SEN and plans to make her final announcement about a run against [Burr] in the fall. In an exclusive interview with On Call, she said the key to her decision was money.
“Let’s face it, it’s hard to run a campaign in North Carolina,” Marshall said. “You can’t do it without some outside money. So these are the things I’m assessing.”
Marshall said she expected a serious bid against Sen. Richard Burr (R) race would require “in the ballpark” of $15M, the same amount now-Sen. Kay Hagan (D) spent in ’08 to defeat ex-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R). She said she’s about to make her second trip to DC this year to meet with nat’l party officials and donors to “test the waters” on a run.
Marshall, having won statewide office four consecutive times, would be an instantly credible foe for Burr. A March poll from Public Policy Polling had Burr leading Marshall by 43-35… which is a pretty unimpressive margin considering that 53% of voters in that survey had no opinion of Marshall whatsoever. There’s no question that Marshall would have to step up her game for a Senate campaign, but it’s a challenge that she thinks she’s up to:
“Not many people know how to run statewide here,” she said. “It’s hard to get your feet wet here. But I’ve proven I know how to do it.”
But a race for Sec/State — a job which many NCians don’t really understand — is vastly different than a SEN bid that’s likely to get nat’l attention in ’10. Marshall admitted she spent “around” $500K to win her lopsided victory in ’08.
But Marshall said she’s up for the challenge. “I know how to do it,” she said. “I was the second highest vote-getter [among NC Council of State candidates] last time around. I’m a person who can deal with the urban and the rural. I’m ready.”
With the members of NC’s Democratic House delegation reluctant to pull the trigger on a run, and the current pair of prospective candidates (Durham attorney Kenneth Lewis and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham) being complete unknowns, Marshall may be our best bet.
RaceTracker wiki: NC-Sen
PPP has been polling potential Burr matchups like crazy.
Last March they polled Marshall vs. Burr
43% Burr
35% Marshall
22% undecided
This poll shows she is way ahead of Kay Hagan’s first poll against Dole. I also think she has advantages that Hagan did not have since she has won 4 statewide elections by large margins. Run Marshall run!
Obviously she wants some assurances with regard to funding from Menendez and the DSCC. I would assume that will be forthcoming.
I voted for her in the 2002 Democratic Primary for US Senate. She came in third, behind Erskine Bowles and Dan Blue. I thought she was the most electable of the three, and probably the best candidate at that time.
My only concern with Elaine is her age…she will be 65 when/if she is sworn in in January 2011. On the flip side, she’s done a great job as Secretary of State since 1997 (she defeated Richard Petty in 1996…that was no small feat either).
I don’t know if I would classify her as a first-tier candidate since 53% of the electorate has no opinion of her, but at the same time Richard Burr has close to the same problem.
On election day Marshall would be 64 which would only be 3 years older than Jeane Shaheen was on election and 9 years older than Kay Hagan was on election day.
By 2011, NC and MO could both be represented by two female Senators. It’s pretty great that that can happen in states that aren’t of the “coastal, sophisticated” variety (like CA or ME). In fact, if Marshall runs and wins, wouldn’t all of the big 3 offices in NC be held by women, then?
Honestly, I think that unless the democrats really screw up Elaine Marshall would most likely win. Richard Burr is a very weak candidate who does not come off as a likeable candidate. On other hand Elizabeth Dole was extremely likeable, a political celebrity, and considered to be a strong candidate. If Kay Hagan could take out Dole then Marshall would probably crush Burr. When Burr first ran for congress he lost in a very republican district and then had trouble winning against Erskin Bowles, someone Dole beat by 9 points just two years before with out any republican coat tails. All in all I dont think it would take 15 million dollars to unseat Richard Burr. In addition, I would love to see Burr’s congressional sucessor Virginia Foxx unseated in 2010.