MI SD-19: An Introduction

In a widely (and rightfully) praised diary profiling the 2010 state Senate elections in Michigan, SSPer Menhen provided a good overview of what we can expect in my home state next year. I don’t have much, if anything, to add to most of what he wrote, but I would like to give everyone a somewhat closer look at one race in particular. This is arguably one of the three most important races of 2009, ranking alongside VA-Gov and NJ-Gov, and could be a better bellwether for 2010 than either of those races.

I am talking, of course, about the special election in Michigan’s 19th Senate District.

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MI SD-19 is the race that the DLCC specifically singled out from Menhen’s diary as one that they “will watch very closely.” And in the world of media narratives and post-election spin, a Republican victory might mean bad news for John Cherry, good news for Mitt Romney, a repudiation of Granholm and Obama, and, of course, great news for John McCain.

But that’s getting way too speculative, and as SSP election prediction contests have shown, I’m absolutely awful at that. Instead, let’s focus on what we know about MI SD-19.

Before I continue, I should make a note about the maps that I’m using. One of my hobbies this summer has been getting myself acquainted with Google Earth, yet another step in Google’s plan for global domination through amazingly useful tools. All of the maps used in this diary were generated with Google Earth from cartographic boundary files provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. What’s more, every map is clickable, taking you to a page I’ve set up that will allow you to interact with the map. I think that tools like this could add a lot to blogging and political analysis, especially for those of us who can’t afford to create our own electoral scoreboard, but are still interested in some sort of visual representation of election data.

Also, before we get too far, I’ll add that I do not live in the district, nor do I have any special knowledge, and honestly, I haven’t been following state politics as closely as I used to. In other words, any opinions or analysis expressed here might be completely wrong. But at least I’ve got maps.

This is what Menhen had to say about SD-19 in his diary:

District 19 VACANT (D)  Calhoun County (Battle Creek) and most of Jackson County

This is the Senate seat that Mark Schauer left vacant when he moved up to Congress last year.  It is usually a swing district, although President Obama won it with votes to spare.  Because this seat is vacant, there will be a special election to fill it later this year.  The Primary will be August 4th and the General on November 9th.

The Democratic candidates are State Rep. Martin Griffin of Jackson, and Sharon Reiner, who ran for congress in 2006 and 2008, narrowly losing to Tim Walberg and then losing badly in the primary to Mark Schauer.  Griffin is backed by the State Democratic Party and should win the Primary.  The Republican candidates are State Rep. Mike Nofs of Battle Creek and Sandstone Township Supervisor C. James Wellman.  Nofs, who is a moderate and popular in the Battle Creek area, should win the primary.  

The fact that 1. Nofs is very moderate 2. He’s very well known and liked in the Battle Creek area and 3. This will be a low turnout special election makes this a tough race for us.  Both parties with certainly spend a lot of money here.  Martin Griffin is from the Jackson area, which is an advantage, as Mark Schauer lost Jackson County in 2002 when he first ran for the State Senate.  If we lose this race it will make it that much more difficult to retake the Senate, so in some ways, whether or not Democrats can gain the trifecta and control redistricting depends on this race.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Candidates:  

Martin Griffin (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Sharon Reiner (D)

Mike Nofs (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

C. James Wellman (R) Sandstone Township Board Memeber

Rating: Tossup

For the purposes of this diary, we’re going to assume that both Griffin and Nofs win their respective primaries on August 4th. That’s the most likely result, though if we’re lucky we could see some wingnut action on the Republican side, and if we’re unlucky we could see another Sharon Renier surprise performance on the Democratic side.

A brief introduction to the candidates:

Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek) – Website

Nofs is, basically, our worst nightmare for a special election like this. He’s moderate– or, he is at least very good at projecting that image. Thanks to six years in the state House, 10 years on the Calhoun County Board of Commissioners, and a couple of decades at the Battle Creek state police post, Nofs is really popular in the generally Democratic-leaning city of Battle Creek. The importance of this will become clear soon.

Nofs was term-limited out of the Michigan House of Representatives in 2008. He represented HD-62, now held by Kate Segal (D).

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Martin “Marty” Griffin (D-Jackson) – Website

To begin with, let me say that I’m extraordinarily happy to see that Griffin actually has a website. The last I had seen, Griffin was “not sure” if he’d put one up. In other words, don’t expect him to come to the Netroots looking for support.

Griffin served as mayor of Jackson for 11 years. In 2004 he very narrowly lost a race for the state House, only to win the rematch in 2006 and win reelection in 2008. As Menhen noted, Griffin’s base is in Jackson County, where Democrats have previously been weak. It’s worth noting that the city of Jackson claims to be the birthplace of the Republican Party. It’s previously been a pretty solidly Republican seat.

Griffin currently represents HD-64, of which all but Summit Township lies in SD-19.

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So we have two state Representatives, each representing hostile territory and yet popular enough to win reelection. Thus far, it sounds like a pretty even match-up.

What kind of a district is SD-19?

Or, perhaps the better way of phrasing it: What does it take for a Democrat to win in SD-19?

As Menhen noted, President Obama did carry the district in 2008, 52.7 to 45.6. Here’s how he did it:

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(All election data, except where otherwise cited, was obtained via the Michigan Secretary of State’s Election Precinct Results Search tool.)

Notice that there’s an awful lot of red and only a few patches of blue, yet Obama still won. Most of the townships in the map just don’t have many people in them, meaning that big victories in the small cities of Battle Creek and Jackson (and, to a lesser extent, the other cities) are enough to put a Democrat over the top.

Just to demonstrate, I’ve adjusted the opacity on that map to show how the population is distributed.

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Now, that’s not an especially fair map, but I think it makes the point. Battle Creek made up about 20 percent of the voters in the district in 2008 (23,394 votes out of 116,135 total), while many of the rural townships of the district made up only one or two percent. That’s not to say that rural areas don’t matter. Winning big in the rural areas (especially in Jackson County) and keeping the cities close is how to win, if you’re a Republican. Rural votes are just as good as urban ones. But the cities (and Battle Creek in particular) are the foundation of Democratic victories.

That can be seen in then state Rep., later state Sen., and now U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer’s SD-19 victory in 2002:

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Results:

County	Mortimer (R)	Schauer (D)
Calhoun	15,673	24,514	40,187
Jackson	16,608	15,159	31,767
Totals	32,281	39,673	71,954
Percentage	44.86	55.14	100

Schauer won SD-19 even more convincingly in 2006– 61-39— but as I remember it (and I don’t live in the district), it wasn’t heavily contested. I think 2002 is better for the current situation.

As Menhen noted, Schauer lost Jackson County, but he made up for it by winning most of Calhoun County, and most of all, by winning Battle Creek convincingly, 66-34.

So that’s the route that other Democrats have taken to win SD-19. Will it work for Marty Griffin?

Let’s look at the electoral histories of HD-62 and HD-64.

First, Griffin in HD-64:

2004

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Results:

Baxter (R)	Griffin (D)	Ross (Write-In)
18,787	18,429	498	37,714
49.81	48.87	1.32

2006

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Results:

Baxter (R)	Griffin (D)
14,178	15,703	29,881
47.45	52.55

2006

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Results:

Prebble (R)	Griffin (D)
14,454	24,260	38,714
37.34	62.66

It took Griffin two tries to get into the state House, but once he got there, the Republicans weren’t able to field a decent candidate against him. Leland Prebble was not especially strong competition.

Griffin’s first two campaigns, though, are the cause of more worry. Rick Baxter, Griffin’s 2004 and 2006 opponent, isn’t a Mike Nofs-like moderate. He’s a rabid, incredibly frightening far-right lunatic, and an ally and former staffer of ex-U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, whose “worst day” of his single term in the legislature was the day they raised the minimum wage. And all the same, Baxter made the race close. That speaks less about Griffin and Baxter and more about just how conservative much of the district is.

The city of Jackson contains about a third of the voters in HD-64 and about 11 percent of the voters in SD-19. I think Griffin can probably still count on that base, but if a guy like Rick Baxter could win the rest of the district, Mike Nofs certainly has that potential.

Can Griffin carry Battle Creek and make some inroads in Calhoun County? Can he follow the same winning path as Obama and Schauer?

Against Mike Nofs, that’s going to be tough. Let’s look at Nofs’ electoral history in HD-62:

2002

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Results:

Nofs (R)	Dearing (D)
13,619	11,986	25,605
53.19	46.81

2004

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Results:

Nofs (R)	Haley (D)
20,935	18,289	39,224
53.37	46.63

2004

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Results:

Nofs (R)	Haley (D)
15,639	13,533	29,172
53.61	46.39

So that’s that. Nofs was elected to three full terms (the maximum allowed under Michigan’s term limit laws), and while he never ran away with it, each time he held even or improved, and each time, he improved his margin in Battle Creek. It’s not that Nofs had to win the city, it’s that he had to make it close enough that his natural advantage in all of the little small villages and towns in the rest of the county carried him over the top. And, of course, the fact that he won Battle Creek in 2004 and 2006 (a strong year for Democrats) was just icing on the cake.

What now?

This leaves us with a frustrating situation. We’ve got the candidate who, on paper, seems like he’d be perfect. His base of support is right in the heart of the Republican part of the district, and he has a history with the voters there.

The problem is, that’s what the other side did, too, and their guy has a history with the bigger city, the one that we generally rely on. It’d be like if our presidential nominee were from Texas, but the Republicans nominated a long-time politician from California. (I feel like that would make for a great seventh season of some sort of television show…)

But all is far from lost. Let’s look at the Obama and Schauer maps again:

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There’s a fair amount of territory there that’s not currently represented by either Griffin or was never represented by Nofs. They don’t necessarily have a lot of people, but some of them– especially the townships adjacent to Battle Creek– have a fair number of voters who aren’t nearly as conservative as their neighbors further from the city. The city of Marshall, too, offers Griffin a chance to pick up some more votes.

That’s not going to be easy against Nofs, whose roots in Calhoun County span many decades. Even so, I think it’s possible. It’s also something Griffin might be able to get some help with, as the voters in Calhoun County think Mark Schauer walks on water and recently elected state Rep. Kate Segal (D) 62-38. Democratic state Rep. Mike Simpson also represents the parts of Jackson County that Griffin doesn’t represent, so some good, old-fashioned Democratic teamwork might make this happen.

And in a low-turnout special election, moving your base will be essential. If the GOP base isn’t thrilled with Nofs, that will hopefully give our side a little bit of breathing room. It’s nothing to count on, but it is something.

Possibly connecting to that, there’s also a Libertarian candidate in the race– Greg Merle. From his campaign website:

Man made Global Warming is a complete hoax , can not be proven and is just simply another government scheme to raise taxes on businesses and individuals. […] Our problem is that these enviro nut jobs won’t even debate us on the issue. Their only goal is to loot the American public while at the same time giving China and India a pass.

[…]

Strong supporter of the Fair Tax and eliminating the IRS .

We need to finish up in Iraq and get out post haste, ditto Japan, Germany, South Korea, Kuwait etc. Our Armed Forces have done their job. Besides, those nations hate us anyway. Let’s give these America hating college professors as well as the UN something to really complain about when we pack up and go home.

The Free Market will solve our economic problems if we could only get government out of the way, let leaders lead and creators create.

Hopefully this guy makes enough noise to win over some of those Walberg/Baxter voters who aren’t comfortable with Nofs. Again, it’s nothing to count on, but it’s still something. (You should really read the rest of his issue positions, they’re wonderful. I especially like the link on his Second Amendment plank.)

And on top of all of that, Michigan really does seem to be trending more Democratic in the last few years. Nofs didn’t have to face reelection in 2008, but I’d be willing to bet the Obama coattails would have brought whomever his challenger would have been the 2,000 votes they’d need to overtake him. If Michigan really is becoming more Democratic, Nofs might not have as easy a time as he’s had before.

What will this election tell us?

To be absolutely honest, I don’t think this will tell us much of anything. If it’s a close race and we win, it tells us that Griffin was a good candidate and picking someone from the Jackson County side of the district was a smart move. If it’s a close race and Nofs wins, it means that Nofs was a really good candidate and had a history with the Battle Creek voters. It’s all stuff we already knew, and anything more will just be spin.

We only learn something if it’s a blowout either way, and I’ll be surprised if it is. That said, if Nofs wins with 60 percent or more, I’m going to start to get really nervous about 2010 in Michigan.

Of course, if you’re so inclined, it might be worth sending a few dollars toward Griffin’s campaign anyway.