Author: Fitzy

In a widely (and rightfully) praised diary profiling the 2010 state Senate elections in Michigan, SSPer Menhen provided a good overview of what we can expect in my home state next year. I don’t have much, if anything, to add to most of what he wrote, but I would like to give everyone a somewhat closer look at one race in particular. This is arguably one of the three most important races of 2009, ranking alongside VA-Gov and NJ-Gov, and could be a better bellwether for 2010 than either of those races.

I am talking, of course, about the special election in Michigan’s 19th Senate District.

(Interactive Map)

MI SD-19 is the race that the DLCC specifically singled out from Menhen’s diary as one that they “will watch very closely.” And in the world of media narratives and post-election spin, a Republican victory might mean bad news for John Cherry, good news for Mitt Romney, a repudiation of Granholm and Obama, and, of course, great news for John McCain.

But that’s getting way too speculative, and as SSP election prediction contests have shown, I’m absolutely awful at that. Instead, let’s focus on what we know about MI SD-19.

Before I continue, I should make a note about the maps that I’m using. One of my hobbies this summer has been getting myself acquainted with Google Earth, yet another step in Google’s plan for global domination through amazingly useful tools. All of the maps used in this diary were generated with Google Earth from cartographic boundary files provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. What’s more, every map is clickable, taking you to a page I’ve set up that will allow you to interact with the map. I think that tools like this could add a lot to blogging and political analysis, especially for those of us who can’t afford to create our own electoral scoreboard, but are still interested in some sort of visual representation of election data.

Also, before we get too far, I’ll add that I do not live in the district, nor do I have any special knowledge, and honestly, I haven’t been following state politics as closely as I used to. In other words, any opinions or analysis expressed here might be completely wrong. But at least I’ve got maps.

This is what Menhen had to say about SD-19 in his diary:

District 19 VACANT (D)  Calhoun County (Battle Creek) and most of Jackson County

This is the Senate seat that Mark Schauer left vacant when he moved up to Congress last year.  It is usually a swing district, although President Obama won it with votes to spare.  Because this seat is vacant, there will be a special election to fill it later this year.  The Primary will be August 4th and the General on November 9th.

The Democratic candidates are State Rep. Martin Griffin of Jackson, and Sharon Reiner, who ran for congress in 2006 and 2008, narrowly losing to Tim Walberg and then losing badly in the primary to Mark Schauer.  Griffin is backed by the State Democratic Party and should win the Primary.  The Republican candidates are State Rep. Mike Nofs of Battle Creek and Sandstone Township Supervisor C. James Wellman.  Nofs, who is a moderate and popular in the Battle Creek area, should win the primary.  

The fact that 1. Nofs is very moderate 2. He’s very well known and liked in the Battle Creek area and 3. This will be a low turnout special election makes this a tough race for us.  Both parties with certainly spend a lot of money here.  Martin Griffin is from the Jackson area, which is an advantage, as Mark Schauer lost Jackson County in 2002 when he first ran for the State Senate.  If we lose this race it will make it that much more difficult to retake the Senate, so in some ways, whether or not Democrats can gain the trifecta and control redistricting depends on this race.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Candidates:  

Martin Griffin (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Sharon Reiner (D)

Mike Nofs (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

C. James Wellman (R) Sandstone Township Board Memeber

Rating: Tossup

For the purposes of this diary, we’re going to assume that both Griffin and Nofs win their respective primaries on August 4th. That’s the most likely result, though if we’re lucky we could see some wingnut action on the Republican side, and if we’re unlucky we could see another Sharon Renier surprise performance on the Democratic side.

A brief introduction to the candidates:

Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek) – Website

Nofs is, basically, our worst nightmare for a special election like this. He’s moderate– or, he is at least very good at projecting that image. Thanks to six years in the state House, 10 years on the Calhoun County Board of Commissioners, and a couple of decades at the Battle Creek state police post, Nofs is really popular in the generally Democratic-leaning city of Battle Creek. The importance of this will become clear soon.

Nofs was term-limited out of the Michigan House of Representatives in 2008. He represented HD-62, now held by Kate Segal (D).

(Interactive Map)

Martin “Marty” Griffin (D-Jackson) – Website

To begin with, let me say that I’m extraordinarily happy to see that Griffin actually has a website. The last I had seen, Griffin was “not sure” if he’d put one up. In other words, don’t expect him to come to the Netroots looking for support.

Griffin served as mayor of Jackson for 11 years. In 2004 he very narrowly lost a race for the state House, only to win the rematch in 2006 and win reelection in 2008. As Menhen noted, Griffin’s base is in Jackson County, where Democrats have previously been weak. It’s worth noting that the city of Jackson claims to be the birthplace of the Republican Party. It’s previously been a pretty solidly Republican seat.

Griffin currently represents HD-64, of which all but Summit Township lies in SD-19.

(Interactive Map)

So we have two state Representatives, each representing hostile territory and yet popular enough to win reelection. Thus far, it sounds like a pretty even match-up.

What kind of a district is SD-19?

Or, perhaps the better way of phrasing it: What does it take for a Democrat to win in SD-19?

As Menhen noted, President Obama did carry the district in 2008, 52.7 to 45.6. Here’s how he did it:

(Interactive Map)

(All election data, except where otherwise cited, was obtained via the Michigan Secretary of State’s Election Precinct Results Search tool.)

Notice that there’s an awful lot of red and only a few patches of blue, yet Obama still won. Most of the townships in the map just don’t have many people in them, meaning that big victories in the small cities of Battle Creek and Jackson (and, to a lesser extent, the other cities) are enough to put a Democrat over the top.

Just to demonstrate, I’ve adjusted the opacity on that map to show how the population is distributed.

(Interactive Map)

Now, that’s not an especially fair map, but I think it makes the point. Battle Creek made up about 20 percent of the voters in the district in 2008 (23,394 votes out of 116,135 total), while many of the rural townships of the district made up only one or two percent. That’s not to say that rural areas don’t matter. Winning big in the rural areas (especially in Jackson County) and keeping the cities close is how to win, if you’re a Republican. Rural votes are just as good as urban ones. But the cities (and Battle Creek in particular) are the foundation of Democratic victories.

That can be seen in then state Rep., later state Sen., and now U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer’s SD-19 victory in 2002:

(Interactive Map)

Results:

County	Mortimer (R)	Schauer (D)
Calhoun	15,673	24,514	40,187
Jackson	16,608	15,159	31,767
Totals	32,281	39,673	71,954
Percentage	44.86	55.14	100

Schauer won SD-19 even more convincingly in 2006– 61-39— but as I remember it (and I don’t live in the district), it wasn’t heavily contested. I think 2002 is better for the current situation.

As Menhen noted, Schauer lost Jackson County, but he made up for it by winning most of Calhoun County, and most of all, by winning Battle Creek convincingly, 66-34.

So that’s the route that other Democrats have taken to win SD-19. Will it work for Marty Griffin?

Let’s look at the electoral histories of HD-62 and HD-64.

First, Griffin in HD-64:

2004

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Baxter (R)	Griffin (D)	Ross (Write-In)
18,787	18,429	498	37,714
49.81	48.87	1.32

2006

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Baxter (R)	Griffin (D)
14,178	15,703	29,881
47.45	52.55

2006

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Prebble (R)	Griffin (D)
14,454	24,260	38,714
37.34	62.66

It took Griffin two tries to get into the state House, but once he got there, the Republicans weren’t able to field a decent candidate against him. Leland Prebble was not especially strong competition.

Griffin’s first two campaigns, though, are the cause of more worry. Rick Baxter, Griffin’s 2004 and 2006 opponent, isn’t a Mike Nofs-like moderate. He’s a rabid, incredibly frightening far-right lunatic, and an ally and former staffer of ex-U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, whose “worst day” of his single term in the legislature was the day they raised the minimum wage. And all the same, Baxter made the race close. That speaks less about Griffin and Baxter and more about just how conservative much of the district is.

The city of Jackson contains about a third of the voters in HD-64 and about 11 percent of the voters in SD-19. I think Griffin can probably still count on that base, but if a guy like Rick Baxter could win the rest of the district, Mike Nofs certainly has that potential.

Can Griffin carry Battle Creek and make some inroads in Calhoun County? Can he follow the same winning path as Obama and Schauer?

Against Mike Nofs, that’s going to be tough. Let’s look at Nofs’ electoral history in HD-62:

2002

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Nofs (R)	Dearing (D)
13,619	11,986	25,605
53.19	46.81

2004

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Nofs (R)	Haley (D)
20,935	18,289	39,224
53.37	46.63

2004

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Nofs (R)	Haley (D)
15,639	13,533	29,172
53.61	46.39

So that’s that. Nofs was elected to three full terms (the maximum allowed under Michigan’s term limit laws), and while he never ran away with it, each time he held even or improved, and each time, he improved his margin in Battle Creek. It’s not that Nofs had to win the city, it’s that he had to make it close enough that his natural advantage in all of the little small villages and towns in the rest of the county carried him over the top. And, of course, the fact that he won Battle Creek in 2004 and 2006 (a strong year for Democrats) was just icing on the cake.

What now?

This leaves us with a frustrating situation. We’ve got the candidate who, on paper, seems like he’d be perfect. His base of support is right in the heart of the Republican part of the district, and he has a history with the voters there.

The problem is, that’s what the other side did, too, and their guy has a history with the bigger city, the one that we generally rely on. It’d be like if our presidential nominee were from Texas, but the Republicans nominated a long-time politician from California. (I feel like that would make for a great seventh season of some sort of television show…)

But all is far from lost. Let’s look at the Obama and Schauer maps again:

(Interactive Map)

(Interactive Map)

There’s a fair amount of territory there that’s not currently represented by either Griffin or was never represented by Nofs. They don’t necessarily have a lot of people, but some of them– especially the townships adjacent to Battle Creek– have a fair number of voters who aren’t nearly as conservative as their neighbors further from the city. The city of Marshall, too, offers Griffin a chance to pick up some more votes.

That’s not going to be easy against Nofs, whose roots in Calhoun County span many decades. Even so, I think it’s possible. It’s also something Griffin might be able to get some help with, as the voters in Calhoun County think Mark Schauer walks on water and recently elected state Rep. Kate Segal (D) 62-38. Democratic state Rep. Mike Simpson also represents the parts of Jackson County that Griffin doesn’t represent, so some good, old-fashioned Democratic teamwork might make this happen.

And in a low-turnout special election, moving your base will be essential. If the GOP base isn’t thrilled with Nofs, that will hopefully give our side a little bit of breathing room. It’s nothing to count on, but it is something.

Possibly connecting to that, there’s also a Libertarian candidate in the race– Greg Merle. From his campaign website:

Man made Global Warming is a complete hoax , can not be proven and is just simply another government scheme to raise taxes on businesses and individuals. […] Our problem is that these enviro nut jobs won’t even debate us on the issue. Their only goal is to loot the American public while at the same time giving China and India a pass.

[…]

Strong supporter of the Fair Tax and eliminating the IRS .

We need to finish up in Iraq and get out post haste, ditto Japan, Germany, South Korea, Kuwait etc. Our Armed Forces have done their job. Besides, those nations hate us anyway. Let’s give these America hating college professors as well as the UN something to really complain about when we pack up and go home.

The Free Market will solve our economic problems if we could only get government out of the way, let leaders lead and creators create.

Hopefully this guy makes enough noise to win over some of those Walberg/Baxter voters who aren’t comfortable with Nofs. Again, it’s nothing to count on, but it’s still something. (You should really read the rest of his issue positions, they’re wonderful. I especially like the link on his Second Amendment plank.)

And on top of all of that, Michigan really does seem to be trending more Democratic in the last few years. Nofs didn’t have to face reelection in 2008, but I’d be willing to bet the Obama coattails would have brought whomever his challenger would have been the 2,000 votes they’d need to overtake him. If Michigan really is becoming more Democratic, Nofs might not have as easy a time as he’s had before.

What will this election tell us?

To be absolutely honest, I don’t think this will tell us much of anything. If it’s a close race and we win, it tells us that Griffin was a good candidate and picking someone from the Jackson County side of the district was a smart move. If it’s a close race and Nofs wins, it means that Nofs was a really good candidate and had a history with the Battle Creek voters. It’s all stuff we already knew, and anything more will just be spin.

We only learn something if it’s a blowout either way, and I’ll be surprised if it is. That said, if Nofs wins with 60 percent or more, I’m going to start to get really nervous about 2010 in Michigan.

Of course, if you’re so inclined, it might be worth sending a few dollars toward Griffin’s campaign anyway.

It promises to be a tough Election Night for me and my Michigan 7th. If I had my way, I’d be sitting in front of the computer with a bag of popcorn from about noon until 3:00am. I really get into elections. And I’m ready to be done with the Mark Schauer versus Tim Walberg race. But sadly, I won’t be able to watch the beginning of the drama I’ve waited so long to see.

From 7:00pm to 9:00pm, I'm going to be away from a computer– and, in fact, away from any televisions, radios, or other devices which report election results. During arguably the most exciting portion of the night, when Virginia may be called for Obama, or when the returns start coming in for the Georgia Senate race, or when our own district begins reporting, I won't be able to be a part of it.

For a political junkie like me, that's like missing the World Series, the Rose Bowl (Go 'Cats! I believe in you!), and the World Cup all at once, which, by the way, are also on Christmas. Tomorrow could be a really amazing day, and I’m disappointed that I’ll be missing a big part of it.

But when I do get to a computer, I’ll be looking for a few things. I don’t claim to have a secret formula or know which tiny town will be the bellwether, and I’m definitely not a Grebner-like expert. But I can tell you what I think a Schauer victory might look like, and where I’ll be looking for it.

Turnout in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties

With 98 percent of Michigan’s voting population registered, there are a lot of people who could show up to vote. That’s got to worry Tim Walberg, whose victory in the 2006 GOP primary was thanks to what former Congressman Joe Schwarz called a “motivated minority” of 7.8 percent in a low-turnout primary. (Schwarz also called them “quasi-theocrats… infiltrating the party power structure”). Granted, a general election is very different from a primary, but a Walberg victory will depend on certain people not showing up, namely in Calhoun County, where Mark Schauer could run up the margin.

But Walberg has someone working against him: Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has done a phenomenal job of registering new voters who are trending Democratic. But they didn’t ask prospective voters for a partisan affiliation before they registered them, nor should they have. In a Republican-leaning district, is it possible that the Obama campaign might have just registered a bunch of new Republicans?

Maybe, but judging from where the new voters are coming from, probably not. With help from the Detroit Free Press (who got the data from the Michigan Secretary of State), here’s a fun table:

County Reg. Voters New Voters % Change (Jan. – Oct.)

Branch 31,805 683 +2%

Calhoun* 103,707 3,950 +4%

Eaton 80,023 2,781 +4%

Hillsdale 33,327 724 +2%

Jackson 115,357 4,672 +4%

Lenawee 71,552 2,170 +3%

Washtenaw* 273,955 24,962 +10%

Note that both Calhoun and Washtenaw Counties have portions not in the 7th District. This is especially important in Washtenaw County, where Ann Arbor (and the University of Michigan) probably accounts for most of the voters and most of the growth. However, Battle Creek, which is in the district, is the major population center for Calhoun County, and is probably responsible for most of that growth. So for our simplified purposes here, let’s ignore Washtenaw County but keep Calhoun County.

As you can see, the most new voters were added in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties (both in absolute number of voters and in proportion to their populations). Calhoun County is generally considered safe territory for Mark Schauer, who has represented the voters there in the state House and Senate since 1996 and is generally very popular. Jackson and Eaton Counties, meanwhile, are the major “battlegrounds.” Not only are they vote-rich, but they were divided pretty evenly in the 2006 election (Eaton: Renier 50 Walberg 48; Jackson: Walberg 51 Renier 46). Although Schauer currently represents much of Jackson County in the state Senate, I’m expecting it to be a major battleground again. Neglected in the voter registration drives were the Walberg strongholds of Branch and Hillsdale Counties, and to a lesser degree, Lenawee County (more on it in a minute).

I don’t have solid data behind me, but I’m going to guess that if they turn out to vote, the new voters in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties will break Democratic. If they were registered by the Obama folks, they were probably targeted as students or underrepresented populations, which is probably good news for Mark Schauer. At least, that’s what I’m hoping.

In 2006, Calhoun County had 47.5 percent turnout, Eaton County had 59.9 percent turnout, and Jackson County had 51.8 percent turnout (data here and here). If turnout is higher than that in those three counties (and especially Calhoun County), new voters and Schauer loyalists could run up enough of a margin to offset losses in the southern part of the district. If the turnout is really big in Calhoun County, that might be the whole ball game.

Is that a possibility? Could central-west Michigan see a massive surge in turnout? I don’t know, but it sounds like Kalamazoo County (one west from Calhoun County) is getting ready for one:

KALAMAZOO — Bracing for a very long and very busy Tuesday, area election officials say they're "as ready as we'll ever be" for the 2008 presidential election.

"We're in good shape," Kalamazoo County Clerk Tim Snow said. "We've been preparing for this all year. We knew this was going to be big."

A surge in voter registrations and predictions of a higher rate of participation means the county could have as many as 144,000 voters this year, compared to the 120,000 who cast ballots four years ago.

The city of Kalamazoo, in particular, has taken steps to avoid long lines Tuesday, putting in a minimum of 14 voting stations at each precinct and substantially increasing the staffing.  

[…]

On Tuesday, polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. People who are in line at 8 p.m. will be allowed to vote. The forecast calls for sunny skies and a high near 70 degrees.

 

Lenawee County

This is where Tim Walberg should win. He represented Lenawee County for 16 years in the state House of Representatives, and the mostly rural county is famous (or infamous) for its conservative politics and sometimes frightening tendencies. (Anyone else remember “Radio Free Lenawee”?) This is where I’m from, and I can say that it is a conservative place.

At the same time, though, people don’t really like Tim Walberg all that much. Oh, sure, some do. Whenever I was canvassing, I was bound to run into someone who would say, “I plan to vote for Tim, I’ve known him for years” or something like that. But I’d also meet someone who’d say, “Walberg? I can’t believe we keep electing that guy!” The solidly-Republican state House seat Walberg vacated has been in Democratic hands (albeit moderate ones) for ten years. With state Representative Dudley Spade basically guaranteed reelection, it’ll stay that way for at least two more years.

Meanwhile, the county is changing. Before the economy got really bad, a lot of people were moving out to Clinton or Tecumseh from Ann Arbor or metro Detroit for the cheaper properties, willing to put up with the couple-hour commute. They don’t have a relationship with Tim Walberg, and some of them are even (gasp) Democrats.

And the Schauer campaign has taken the county seriously, opening an office in downtown Adrian and hiring a full-time field organizer to staff it and coordinate with the Obama and Spade campaigns. Whenever he’s in the county, Mark Schauer is certain to mention his great relationship with Doug and Dudley Spade, both of whom carry a lot of weight. (Side note: Their secret to success? They’re actually really good representatives. If you go to Dudley Spade with a problem, he’ll do everything he can to solve it.) Throw in the Obama organizers, and you’ve got a real chance for 2008 to be a year of Democratic revival in Lenawee County.

Will Mark Schauer win it? … No. It just won’t happen. But he can keep it close. Governor Jennifer Granholm managed to take 47 percent of the vote in 2006, and if Schauer can get a similar share of the vote and hold Walberg to 51 or 52 percent, it could mean a lot. If Schauer opens up a big lead in Calhoun County and Washtenaw County, then there just aren’t enough voters in Branch and Hillsdale Counties to make up for it. Walberg needs to win Lenawee County convincingly. If Lenawee County is as tight as the other “battlegrounds,” it’s going to be a rough night for Tim Walberg.

And what if Mark Schauer wins Lenawee County? Then short of something really unexpected happening, Schauer will win the district. But like I said, Schauer won’t win Lenawee County. I’m not going to let my hopes get that high.

Obama

Barack Obama is going to win the state of Michigan. The only question left is “How big?” Since John McCain pulled out of Michigan, it’s started to look pretty big. Here’s the Pollster.com chart for Michigan:

That’s quite a sight, isn’t it? The final Pollster average puts it at Obama +16, which would be a bigger margin than Bill Clinton’s +13 win in 1996. That year, with the help of Ross Perot, Bill Clinton carried four of the counties that currently make up the 7th District: Calhoun, Washtenaw, Lenawee, and Branch. Calhoun and Washtenaw are to be expected, but Lenawee and Branch surprised me when I looked back at them. After all, these are supposed to be the conservative parts of the district.

Supposing Obama has similar success, picking up Calhoun, western Washtenaw, and at least one other county, is there any way Mark Schauer can lose? I’m not sure what the Obama-Walberg voter looks like, and I’d be shocked to see Obama carrying Jackson County by a wide margin but Schauer losing it. Maybe it’s possible, but Mark Schauer has done a good job presenting himself as a moderate and a hard-working, dependable public servant. If Obama wins big, I can’t imagine any reason for the Obama voter to choose “more of the same” and Tim Walberg.

*****

Upon re-reading all of that, I’m worried that I’m being too optimistic and tempting fate for another disappointing election night. It’s possible. Even so, and despite not having any idea of what I’m doing, I think that most of my reasoning has some foundation to it. I think one of the three factors above (if not all of them) could contribute to a Schauer victory.

That’s what I’ll be looking for, sometime around 9:15pm Eastern Time. It’s possible that there will be a clear leader by the time I arrive on the scene. We’ll see soon enough if any of this is right.

Cross-posted from Walberg Watch

In August of 2006, a man named Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) defeated incumbent Congressman Joe Schwarz (R-Battle Creek) in the Republican primary. Those that live in Michigan's 7th District may remember the vicious primary campaign, in which Walberg– funded by the Club for Growth and other radical right-wing groups– destroyed the name and good work of a dedicated public servant. Schwarz was conservative, but he was honest and hard-working, and was one of the few “good” Republicans left. And Tim Walberg, a former far-right minister, attacked Schwarz without mercy.

A few days after the primary, I started a blog called Walberg Watch. Originally hosted on Blogspot, I wanted to create an online record of Walberg's extreme positions as the 2006 election approached, facing the terribly underfunded Democratic nominee Sharon Renier. Walberg won that election by just four percent, and I found myself with a new blogging mission: following Tim Walberg's adventure through what will hopefully be his only term in the United States House of Representatives.

Over the last two years, a lot has changed, with much of it building toward the re-launch at the new www.WalbergWatch.com. Below the fold, I'd like to walk you through some of the additions to Walberg Watch. I'm excited by what we can accomplish in the next 126 days as we work to bring about better representation. I hope that by the time you're done reading this, you are too.

The Blog

In addition to all of the new features, the original Walberg Watch blog is still up and running, with a new, blue look. I'm still writing about Congressman Walberg's voting record and all the issues of the campaign, and all the other contributors are still more than welcome to post to the new site.

That's not the exciting part. The exciting part is that you can post, too. No, we didn't switch over to Scoop or SoapBlox… that's more work than I'm ready for right now, and we are focused on only one congressional district. So, no diaries for us.

Instead, we've got a nifty form for you to submit your own content. It's not WYSIWYG, but it's got everything you need to start blogging.

Why is this a good idea? It's another level of people-powered politics. I can't tell you how many times readers have left comments saying things like, “Fitzy, why aren't you writing about X?” or “I was at Walberg's town hall and he said…” This is the perfect medium for sharing your thoughts and your stories. Let's face it, I'm not always on top of things. I miss votes, I miss stories, and sometimes, I'm just plain busy. If you're not satisfied with my blogging, or you just want to help out, this is hwo you do it! There is a slight delay, because I'll check over each post before it goes online to prevent spam.

This system can work on so many levels, and it's probably the part that I'm the most excited about. Suppose you're just an ordinary reader, but you just got back from a campaign event with Mark Schauer and you're really excited. Tell us about it! Suppose you're a well-respected Michigan blogger who, in addition to running a major Michigan blog, regularly posts items about Congressman Tim Walberg. Disappointed that Walberg Watch hasn't linked to you yet? Do it yourself!

Anything that you submit through this form will be posted to the Walberg Watch blog under the “Guest Blogger” user, and you'll be credited at the top of the post.

 

Video – Ours and Theirs

The written word can say so much, but sometimes, hours and hours of blogging could be summed up so much more simply with a few simple images and a little audio. That's why Walberg Watch now features a Media Center, which will be the center of 7th District-related media. We already have included every video created by the Schauer campaign and have added the 2006 campaign ad from Sharon Renier and the independently-produced videos from the 2006 and 2008 cycles. As more are created, they'll be added. As Congressman Walberg begins to advertise, I'll be working to include all of that as well.

But it's not just going to be copying other people's work. I'm entering the exciting (and slightly frightening) world of video myself, with weekly Walberg Watch videos. Here are the first two:

Like the blogging above, I'm more than open to adding more content produced by readers as well. Think you can make better videos than I can? Well, I agree, and I'd love to see them!

 

Campaign Calendar

There's no better way to judge a person by actually showing up and listening to what he or she has to say. I've seen Tim Walberg up close, and you should to. It'll give you a clear idea of what a smooth talking, career politician with a radical agenda looks like.

And what about Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier? We've got two Democratic candidates and a primary just over a month away. Sure, you could read their positions on the issues (here and here), but why not ask them questions in person, too?

We've got the answer for that in our Calendar page. Upcoming candidate events are conveniently listed, and there's a handy map which shows where candidates are going and where they've been

Go, ask Tim Walberg the tough questions! Get to know Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier. And remember, Walberg Watch is always there for the latest updates. 

 

Online Resources

It's not just enough for people like me to type away at a keyboard all day. There are a lot of voters in the 7th District that don't know much about Walberg, or are dissatisfied but aren't yet sure about his potential replacements. It's going to take a lot of hard work to unseat Congressman Walberg, which is where you have to come in. Luckily for you, I've got some things that could help out.

At our new Action page, we're compiling all sorts of resources that will help you talk with friends and neighbors about their representative. There's Tim Walberg's voting record, and, coming soon, a printable document outlining what a progressive Democrat representing the district would do differently. There's information on how to register to vote (or how to register others), plus important deadlines. We can show you where to go if you want to contribute to or volunteer with a Democratic campaign in the 7th District, and you can sign up for weekly updates and e-mail action items (which start going out next week).

What kind of action items would those be? We'll be sending out suggested topics for letters to the editor and issues for letter-writing campaigns to Tim Walberg. And, of course, we'll be providing resources for making your letters even better, too.

 

Organize!

The new and improved Walberg Watch is more than just a new domain (www.walbergwatch.com). Following a reader suggestion, I created a Walberg Watch page on PartyBuilder, the social networking site hosted by the Democratic National Committee.

Why is that a good thing? Through PartyBuilder, you can connect with like-minded voters who are as eager as you are to elect someone new. Coming from Lenawee County (and just a short drive away from Tim Walberg himself), I can tell you that for some of us, it can be kind of lonely being a Democrat. There's nothing that energizes you more than learning that you're not alone!

But “connect” is such a vague term. What does that actually mean? Using PartyBuilder tools, it could mean organizing a letter-writing campaign to voice your opinions to Tim Walberg. It could mean coordinating efforts to write letters to the editor in area newspapers. It could mean organizing independent canvassing in more remote parts of the district.

The best part is, any organizing can be done independently of Walberg Watch itself. That's the power of grassroots energy and people-powered campaigning.

That image, of course, is a little out of date… we now have five members, not just one, and I'm hoping to see many more join as I promote the page over the coming weeks.

 

What YOU Can Do

Hopefully, by now, you're as excited as I am. If you're a voter in Michigan's 7th Congressional District, and even if you're not, here are five steps you can take today:

1. Visit Walberg Watch. I'm eager to show off the new look, and to discover technical bugs. Since I'm not a web designer and did the upgrade myself, the new site is a mix of Blogger, Google Page Creator, customized HTML, and a little bit of PHP I had to pick up. I've been fighting bugs for a week and hopefully have
   found most of them, but I could use your help in finding whatever is left.
2. Update your blogrolls. The new location dropped us off the map for Google searches, so if you're currently linking to the old Blogspot page, updating that link will help a great deal. (If you're not already linking to us… well, why not?)
3. Sign up for e-mail updates. You, too, can get the latest on Tim Walberg and action that can help end his time in Washington.
4. Join our PartyBuilder page. Connect with other Democrats and help come up with ideas for advancing progressivism in the heart of southern Michigan.
5. Blog! Start writing about why Tim Walberg needs to go, and help make Walberg Watch a better resource for everyone.

Thank you very much for your time. I hope to see all of you over at Walberg Watch sometime soon!

Cross-Posted from Michigan Liberal and Blogging for Michigan.

Walberg Watch, which covers Michigan’s 7th Congressional District and the far-right Congressman Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) is excited to announce the first of (hopefully) many candidate interviews. Who’s first? Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek).

Some background from his website:

Mark Schauer, a resident of Battle Creek, currently serves as the Senate Democratic Leader. He also serves as the Democratic Vice Chair for the Senate Government Operations and Reform Committee and as a member of the Campaigns and Election Oversight Committee. Before being elected to the State Senate, he served three terms in the Michigan House of Representatives.

Prior to serving in the State House, he was a Battle Creek City Commissioner. Sen. Schauer also previously served as the Coordinator for the Calhoun County Human Services Coordinating Council; Executive Director of the Community Action Agency of South Central Michigan; and as Urban Planner for the Calhoun County Planning Department.

As a state legislator for nearly 10 years, Mark has been a consistent advocate for quality and safe schools, early childhood development and investing in prevention, job training and economic development, and access to health care. He has also worked hard to provide neighborhood and community safety through community-oriented policing, to protect consumers and small businesses, and to reduce the cost of prescription drugs.

His community involvement includes Food Bank of South Central Michigan; Habitat for Humanity; Urban League of Battle Creek; Chambers of Commerce; and Lifespan and Kids ‘n’ Stuff board of directors.

Mark holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Albion College, a Master’s Degree in Public Administration from Western Michigan University and a Masters Degree in Political Science from Michigan State University where he is also all-but-dissertation in Political Science & Urban Studies. He is married to Christine and has three stepchildren.

If you have any questions for Senator Schauer about his career, his candidacy, or Congressman Tim Walberg, leave them in the comments. Just remember, I won’t be asking him anything like “When did you stop beating your wife?” If you really want your question to be answered, make sure it’s a serious, fair question.

All four announced Democratic candidates– Jim Berryman, David Nacht, Sharon Renier, and Mark Schauer– have been approached or have contacted Walberg Watch about doing interviews. Each is at a different stage of preparation, but I look forward to speaking with all of the candidates.

Two weeks ago, Michigan Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) expressed an interest in joining the field of candidates seeking the Democratic nomination against far-right incumbent Congressman Tim Walberg (R-Tipton). After two weeks of rumors and discussions of his possible candidacy comes this news out of Michigan’s 7th District, from the AP:

  LANSING, Mich. (AP) – State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer said Thursday he will seek the Democratic nomination to challenge freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg in the 2008 election after declining earlier overtures to enter the race.

  “Tim Walberg is not doing the job,” Schauer told The Associated Press on Thursday. “He is serving a very narrow interest. He’s really been a servant of the Bush-Cheney administration and the extreme special interests in Washington.”

I heard the news early this afternoon. Around 2 PM I received a phone call, and 45 minutes later, Senator Schauer visited Walberg Watch, the blog I started to cover the race. He wanted to discuss his decision with me, my fellow bloggers, and the readers of the blog.

Read what Senator Schauer had to say and more in the extended entry…

I’ve been asked to cross-post this to a few different blogs. Here’s what Senator Schauer had to say:

Today I created a committee to become a candidate for the 7th Congressional district. I did so because Tim Walberg is the wrong person for this district, and he’s not working for us in Washington. And I did so because I believe that my passion for public service can make a real difference in Washington for the people and issues I care about.

As you’ve noted in thorough detail on this site, Walberg continually obeys the extreme Republican agenda in DC, instead of the practical views of the constituents who depend on him. He has voted against a minimum wage increase, but for privatizing social security. He opposed expanding health care to more than 4 million uninsured kids, and he refused to support recommendations from the 9/11 commission that would help keep us safe. He didn’t have a problem putting out a press release claiming credit for critical local funding, but couldn’t bring himself to actually vote for the bill.

The people of the 7th district deserve better.

I’ve always put my community first and done whatever it takes to make sure we get results for south central Michigan, so I won’t stand for anyone who abandons our district time and time again. I will continue serving as state Senate Democratic Leader and fight to the finish the effort to put Michigan on sound financial footing for the future. In fact, the encouragement I’ve received and support I’ve been offered from my constituents, friends and colleagues is what makes this effort possible. I also owe so much to my amazing wife, Christine, and my understanding family for being willing to accept the sacrifices that this kind of undertaking will require.

With that said, I believe I am the strongest candidate to take this seat back from Tim Walberg. No one will work harder than me, and no one will knock more doors than I will. When the national Republican machine kicks in to try to save this seat, I’ll take them on and win because I have a history of building the kind of broad, bipartisan coalitions necessary to win in tough Republican districts. My experience raising the level of funds a race like this demands will make sure we can stay competitive with the deep pockets of the Club for Growth and others.

There are honorable public servants and friends who have also expressed interest in this race. I have a great deal of respect for each one of them, and I’ll work hard to make sure we all come together to achieve our shared goal – replacing this incumbent. I have a proven track record of bringing people together, and that’s what I would do with Democrats, Independents, and Republicans in this district, because one thing the current Congressman doesn’t seem to understand is that this job means you represent everyone. You’re not there just for the folks who think exactly like you do, or the special interests that fund your campaign, or George W. Bush and his cronies in DC. The interests of the district, the state and the nation come first.

Thanks again for all that you do and all you’re going to do throughout this campaign. Your great research and the time you spend raising awareness of the importance of this race and the failures of the incumbent are not going unnoticed. I plan to be a regular visitor to this site and look forward to working together to return this seat to the people of the 7th district.

Here’s more from that AP article:

  Schauer filed paperwork to run in the 7th District, which includes parts of seven counties in south-central Michigan. It has been targeted by Democrats because Walberg, of Tipton, failed to capture 50 percent of the vote in last year’s election.

  Schauer, who had pledged to Senate Democrats to serve out his full four-year term as minority leader through 2010, said he will keep being the Democratic leader while running for Congress. He said he changed his mind about running after being approached by both rank-and-file constituents and party leaders.

  The push by others for him to join the race “almost became deafening,” Schauer said.

Three other Democrats have already either filed or announced their intention to challenge Tim Walberg– former state Senator Jim Berryman, attorney David Nacht, and 2004 and 2006 nominee Sharon Renier. Nacht out-raised Walberg in the second quarter, at $160,000, and Berryman made raised a respectable $55,000.

Schauer becomes the only candidate to announce that is from the western half of the district, which includes Battle Creek, the district’s largest city. Berryman and Walberg are from Lenawee County, Nacht is from Washtenaw County, at the edge of the district, and Renier is from Munith, just east of Jackson. At this point, it’s not clear what role geography might play in the primary or general election.

This was already a top-tier race before Senator Schauer’s announcement. Now, we have four announced candidates, all of whom have a great shot at winning next fall.

(From the diaries with light editing for formatting. A Mark Schauer candidacy would immediately make this race into a knock-down, top tier contest. Schauer has a solid base in the heart of the district and a strong resume as Minority Leader in the State Senate. I hope he tosses his hat into the ring. – promoted by James L.)

State Senator Mark Schauer, a Battle Creek Democrat, was mentioned quite a bit last fall and early this year as a potential candidate for Congress in the 7th District. He's been a fantastic party leader in the legislature, supporting the netroots and working to solve the Michigan budget crisis. His name was even tossed around by supporters of Joe Schwarz in 2006 as a reason not to vote for Tim Walberg, suggesting that Walberg in 2006 would inevitably lead to a Schauer victory in 2008.

Schauer and his staff quashed most speculation this spring, promising to stay on as leader of the Democratic caucus in the Senate until the end of his term in 2010. Most observers– including journalist Jack Lessenberry— thought he would have been a formidable candidate, but Schauer seemed determined to sit this election out.

But all of that might be changing.

For those that don't recall, Michigan's 7th District is currently represented by far-right wing Congressman Tim Walberg. Walberg is one of those conservatives who opposes little things, like taxes and the separation of church and state. He defeated the well-respected moderate Congressman Joe Schwarz (a Republican also from Battle Creek) in a very nasty primary funded mostly by the Club for Growth.

But back to Mark Schauer.  Starting last night, I started hearing rumors that Schauer might be reconsidering his previous decision. Then the subscription-only MIRS News service reported that Schauer would contact Jim Berryman and David Nacht sometime today to let them know whether or not he would “seriously consider” running in 2008. Then the AP picked it up:

    LANSING, Mich. (AP) — State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, may challenge U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg in the 2008 election after brushing off earlier overtures to enter the race.

    Schauer, who had pledged to Senate Democrats to serve out his full four-year term through 2010, said Wednesday he is discussing a bid for Congress with family, colleagues and constituents before making a “final decision.”

    “I would bring the same commonsense, results-oriented approach to this role as I have to my entire career in public service,” Schauer, 45, said in a statement.

    Schauer said it had become “painfully clear that Tim Walberg cares more about what's best for Republican leadership in Washington than what's best for Michigan's 7th district. […]

    Former Rep. Joe Schwarz, R-Battle Creek, said Wednesday he spoke to Schauer earlier in the day and the state senator told him “he was looking at” the congressional race. Schwarz said Schauer did not indicate when he would make a final decision.

    Schwarz, who was defeated by Walberg in last year's Republican primary, said he had not made a decision on whether he would re-seek his old congressional seat.

    Schwarz, a physician, is chairing a task force on health care needs in southeast Michigan and said he would not announce any plans on the congressional race until his task force releases a report in September.

The plot thickens further with Michigan Liberal's lpackard's discovery that the domain schauerforcongress.com has been registered.

I've been following this all day today with e-mails and phone calls to a bunch of different people, and this is what I've got: Schauer has not announced whether or not he'll run, and likely hasn't made a final decision. As is suggested by the article above, we're now in a period where he may be watching to see what kind of support he may have. “Testing the waters,” as it were.

In other words, if you want Mark Schauer to run for Congress, now would be the time to let him know about it.

Adapted from a post at Walberg Watch. (Thanks to Michigan Liberal.)

UPDATE: Apparently, MIRS is reporting that a DCCC poll conducted showed Schauer leading Walberg by three percent, and by eight percent when positives and negatives of each are read.