Michigan Senate – Swing State Project

Michigan State House and Senate: September 2010

(Cross-posted on ML, BFM, and WMR-pb)

(photo by Tom Gill of beautiful Lake Michigan)

As we celebrate a beautiful Labor Day weekend, we can also rejoice in the unofficial start date of the 2010 campaign season. While many voters were bombarded with attention from campaigns over the past few months during primary season, the general election season will be upon us now with full vigor. Labor Day weekend also nicely coincides with the post-primary filing date for Michigan’s legislative campaigns. Candidates must report the amount of money they have raised and spent between July 18 and August 23, and must also declare their cash on hand at the end of the reporting period.

Thus we can see the financial condition of candidates entering to the last 61 days before Election Day in the contours of Michigan’s political landscape. As in previous analysis of the State House and Senate candidates, I have collected the reported financial data that can be obtained through a subscription. Please feel free to contact me at peterbratt@gmail.com.

State House

While signs of a Republican edge in the 2010 election have emerged over the past few months, the reality of Michigan’s political geography will reduce the number of competitive seats in the state to no more than fifteen. Using electoral data from the past four cycles, I’ve created a House District matrix that is shown in the linked Google document. Both parties have a number of safe seats that are not going to attract the attention of the opposing party; the Democrats have 31, the Republicans have 25. The filing date backs the electoral data. 22 Republicans have filed financial filing waivers, meaning they will raise no more than $1,000 for the 2010 election cycle, meaning they will most assuredly lose in November. Thirteen other Republican candidates have raised less than $1,000, and are already being heavily outspent by their Democratic opponents. Thus, for all intent and purpose, the Democrats will have at least 35 Representatives in January 2011.

27 Republicans will also most assuredly return to Lansing with these 35 Democrats. 17 Democrats have filed financial waivers, while six Republicans are unchallenged this fall (Peter Lund-36th, Kenneth Kurtz- 58th, Bob Genetski-88th, Joe Haveman-90th, Jim Stamas-98th, Wayne Schmidt, 104th). Say what you will about the Michigan Republican Party, but they ran candidates in every State House District, something that the Democrats didn’t do this cycle. The remaining four Republicans face rather nominal opposition, although Democrat Garry Post has self-financed his campaign against incumbent Republican Cindy Denby in the 47th District (northern Livingston County).

The remaining 48 districts are more competitive. Of these seats, I have classified 18 as Democratic leaning districts and fourteen as leaning Republican. Of the 18 Democratic seats, only 16 are potentially competitive since two Republicans have filed financial waivers. Eleven of these 18 Democrats are incumbents and are generally in a stronger financial position than their Republican opponents. Democratic incumbents Marty Griffin (64th-Jackson County) and Judy Nerat (108th-Menominee County) are the only two incumbents in less than robust financial positions against their opponents. Democrats will be most concerned about the seven open Democratic-leaning districts, six which the Democrats are defending. In the 15th (Dearborn), Republican Suzanne Sareini has double the money that her opponent Democrat George Darany has, which could make this seat one the GOP could put in play. In the 26th (Royal Oak), Democrat James Townsend is fresh off an expensive primary, while his Republican opponent Kenneth Rosen has a significant financial edge due to his self financing. In the 55th (Monroe and Washtenaw Counties) and the 75th (eastern Grand Rapids) the Democratic candidates Michael Smith and Brandon Dillon have significant financial advantages over their opponents, making the likelihood of the GOP House Caucus spending funds in these races much less likely. In the 110th (western Upper Peninsula) Democrat Scott Dianda has a financial edge over Republican Matt Huuki, although both candidates have not raised much money. The 31st District is a Republican-held seat in Macomb County that could be a potential Democratic pickup opportunity, and Marilyn Lane is facing Republican Dan Tolis, who has poured more than $100,000 into his campaign coffers.

Of the fourteen Republican leaning seats, six are held by GOP incumbents, five are open Republican seats, and three were vacated by term-limited Democratic incumbents. Three Democrats have filed financial waivers, meaning that only eleven seats are active elections. All GOP incumbents have a strong financial edge, while in the five open Republican seats, two Democratic candidates has filed a financial waiver (District 79 and 81), and in two races the Republican candidate has a large financial edge (Districts 33 and 61). Only in the 80th District (Van Buren County) does Democrat Tom Erdmann have a narrow financial advantage against Republican Aric Nesbitt, who spent a lot of money in a six-way Republican primary. Of the three Democratic-held district, two (District 83-Sanliac County, District 107-eastern Upper Peninsula) appear to be Republican pickups, as the Democratic candidates in each district have raised very little money in a tough political environment. In the 20th District vacated by Representative Marc Corriveau, Democrat Joan Wadsworth has a significant financial advantage over Republican Kurt Heise, who has largely self-financed his campaign. If Wadsworth can hold the 20th, which covers Plymouth Township and Northville in Wayne County, it will be a testament to her political skill.

The remaining sixteen seats are swing districts, with five held by the GOP. The five Democratic incumbents (District 1, Tim Bledsoe; District 21, Dian Slavens; District 24, Sarah Roberts; District 39, Lisa Brown; District 70, Mike Huckleberry) all have large financial advantages over their Republican opponents, an advantage which the Democratic State House caucus will certainly supplement over the next two months. The six open-Democratic held seats are much more open to a Republican takeover. The Republicans look especially competitive in Districts 52 (western Washtenaw County), 65 (Jackson County) and 91 (Muskegon County), thanks to three self-financing candidates in Mark Ouimet, Mike Shirkey and Holly Hughes. While I suspect that Christine Green will be able to benefit from strong institutional support in Washtenaw County, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shirkey and Hughes win their districts. The 106th also looks like a possible flip, with Republican Peter Pettalia out raising Democrat Casey Viegelahn. The two remaining open Democratic seats seem to be much safer for their party, with Van Sheltrown in the 103rd District (Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, and Iosco Counties), and Harvey Schmidt in the 57th District (Monroe County) each have an active local party, a financial edge and strong support from the departing Democratic incumbents. MDP will likely steer resources towards these two districts.

Of the five Republican held swing seats, all are open seats. Of these, Districts 30 (Sterling Heights), 97 (Clare, Gladwin, and Arenac Counties), and 99 (Isabella and Midland Counties) all look like potential Democratic pickups opportunities in November. Each Democratic candidate has a significant financial edge over their Republican opponent. Districts 71 (Eaton County) and 85 (Shiawassee County) are also potential opportunities, although the Republican candidates might be aided by a better political climate this fall.

With two months to go, I expect the Democrats to lose between four and seven seats in the Michigan State House. While the political environment is not favorable for the Democratic Party this cycle, the Michigan Democratic House caucus has a two to one financial advantage over the Republican House caucus (As of July 20, 2010 the Democratic House Caucus had $850,469 versus the Republican’s $394,231) that will be used to effect over the next few weeks. While a Republican gain might be larger, I suspect the state party will choose instead to focus money on regaining control over the Michigan Supreme Court and retaining the State Senate. For folks interested where these house districts are located, please see the maps below

http://i303.photobucket.com/al…

State Senate

The financial situation in the Michigan State Senate is a 180 degree reversal of the State House. The Republican Senate caucus has a three to one money advantage, with $1,584,502 cash on hand versus the Democratic Senate caucus total of $505,007 (as of July 20). This deep financial advantage, along with the unfavorable political environment will make it difficult, but not impossible, for the Democrats to take control of the State Senate.

Of the 38 seats, 30 are open in the 2010 cycle. While the turnover in senators will be significant, the partisan makeup of the chamber will not be significantly altered. Eleven seats are safe in the hands of the Democratic Party, while the Republicans will assuredly return eight senators in January 2011. Of the eleven Democrats running for safe seats, nine have Republicans who have filed financial waivers, while Republicans Michael Ennis (District 9) and Kyle Haubrich (District 23) have raised insignificant amounts of funds, ensuring that Democrats Steve Bieda and Gretchen Whitmer will be reelected in November. Of the eight safe Republicans, two are incumbents (Mike Nofs in District 19 and Mark Jansen in District 28) and their opponents filed financial waivers. Democratic candidates also filed financial waivers in the 24th and 30th Districts, while none of the remaining four Democratic candidates have raised more than $5,000 against well-financed opponents.

10 seats are leaning Republican for a number of reasons. Republicans Jack Brandenburg (District 11-Macomb County) and Philip Pavlov (Lapeer and St. Clair Counties) face opponents who filed financial waivers, and Jim Marleau in the 12th District (Oakland County) and Mike Kowall in the 15th (northern Oakland) have significant financial advantages over Casandra Ulbrich and Pamela Jackson respectively. Incumbent Republican senators John Pappageorge (13th District-eastern Oakland County), Randy Richardville (17th District-Monroe and Washtenaw Counties), and Roger Kahn (32nd District-Saginaw County) have significant cash on hand advantages over their Democratic challengers. However, Aaron Bailey in the 13th and Debasish Mridha in the 32nd have raised significant funds that would allow them to make a play at these seats in a better political environment. A similar situation exists in the open 16th and 36th district seats, where popular Democrats Douglas Spade and Andy Neumann are running against Bruce Caswell and John Moolenaar. Neumann narrowly lost in 2002 in a bid for a senate seat, and it appears that Moolenaar has a significant financial advantage of more than $200,000 at the beginning of September. Democrats might consider making a play at the 16th District, where Douglas Spade will face Caswell, who provided a personal fortune for his attempt for higher office. Finally, in the 37th District, while Republican Howard Walker’s campaign account was depleted after a bitter primary battle, Democrat Bob Carr hasn’t caught on fire financially.

The four Democratic-leaning seats are a mixed bag for the defending party. Incumbent Glenn Anderson (6th District-Livonia and Westland) and Jeff Mayes (Bay County and the Thumb region) have significant cash on hand advantages, meaning they will avoid being targeted by the Republicans. However, in the 10th (Macomb County) and 38th (Upper Peninsula) Districts, two excellent candidates for each party (Paul Gieleghem versus Tory Rocca in the former and Michael Lahti and Tom Casperson in the latter) mean that there will be a contested race with significant funding from each party. While the Republican candidates are strong, the seats both have historic Democratic leanings, which will be crucial to retaining these seats in November.

The five remaining seats will decide control of the Senate. If the Republicans can hold two of their four seats, they will have a 20 to 18 edge in the chamber. The Democrats need to hold the 26th District (Genesee and Oakland Counties) and pick up three of the Republican seats. The problem for the Democrats is that their candidates in two of the five districts are in at a distinct financial disadvantage. In the 20th District Democrat Robert Jones has just over $10,000 on hand (and has loaned himself an equal amount), and is going up against Tonya Schuitmaker, who is personally wealthy and willing to spend significant sums to hold this Kalamazoo County seat, although she only has $6,000 on hand after an expensive primary. Democrat David LaGrand ($30,648 cash on hand) trails opponent David Hildenbrand ($134,352 cash on hand) by more than $100,000, and edge that the senate Democrats will have to try and overcome to contest this seat. Democratic candidates in the 7th (Kathleen Law with $21,577 cash on hand), 26th (Paula Zelenko with $23,041 cash on hand) and Mary Valentine ($49,231) are at rough financial parity with their Republican opponents Patrick Colbeck ($13,267), David Robertson ($10,648), and Geoff Hansen ($57,371).

Given the number of strong candidates in each party competing in some competitive districts, it seems that the parties will likely exchange some seats. However, given the Republican Senate caucus’ strong financial edge, I suspect the Democratic gain will be limited to a one to two seat gain, keeping the Republicans in control of the upper chamber.

Politics is about candidates and their message competing in a political landscape strongly shaped by partisan boundaries. With two months to go, both parties will be racing to the finish line. So, enjoy the last few weeks of peace and quiet before the robocalls start, and enjoy some beautiful state senate district photos below.

http://i303.photobucket.com/al…

MI SD-19: An Introduction

In a widely (and rightfully) praised diary profiling the 2010 state Senate elections in Michigan, SSPer Menhen provided a good overview of what we can expect in my home state next year. I don’t have much, if anything, to add to most of what he wrote, but I would like to give everyone a somewhat closer look at one race in particular. This is arguably one of the three most important races of 2009, ranking alongside VA-Gov and NJ-Gov, and could be a better bellwether for 2010 than either of those races.

I am talking, of course, about the special election in Michigan’s 19th Senate District.

(Interactive Map)

MI SD-19 is the race that the DLCC specifically singled out from Menhen’s diary as one that they “will watch very closely.” And in the world of media narratives and post-election spin, a Republican victory might mean bad news for John Cherry, good news for Mitt Romney, a repudiation of Granholm and Obama, and, of course, great news for John McCain.

But that’s getting way too speculative, and as SSP election prediction contests have shown, I’m absolutely awful at that. Instead, let’s focus on what we know about MI SD-19.

Before I continue, I should make a note about the maps that I’m using. One of my hobbies this summer has been getting myself acquainted with Google Earth, yet another step in Google’s plan for global domination through amazingly useful tools. All of the maps used in this diary were generated with Google Earth from cartographic boundary files provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. What’s more, every map is clickable, taking you to a page I’ve set up that will allow you to interact with the map. I think that tools like this could add a lot to blogging and political analysis, especially for those of us who can’t afford to create our own electoral scoreboard, but are still interested in some sort of visual representation of election data.

Also, before we get too far, I’ll add that I do not live in the district, nor do I have any special knowledge, and honestly, I haven’t been following state politics as closely as I used to. In other words, any opinions or analysis expressed here might be completely wrong. But at least I’ve got maps.

This is what Menhen had to say about SD-19 in his diary:

District 19 VACANT (D) Calhoun County (Battle Creek) and most of Jackson County

This is the Senate seat that Mark Schauer left vacant when he moved up to Congress last year. It is usually a swing district, although President Obama won it with votes to spare. Because this seat is vacant, there will be a special election to fill it later this year. The Primary will be August 4th and the General on November 9th.

The Democratic candidates are State Rep. Martin Griffin of Jackson, and Sharon Reiner, who ran for congress in 2006 and 2008, narrowly losing to Tim Walberg and then losing badly in the primary to Mark Schauer. Griffin is backed by the State Democratic Party and should win the Primary. The Republican candidates are State Rep. Mike Nofs of Battle Creek and Sandstone Township Supervisor C. James Wellman. Nofs, who is a moderate and popular in the Battle Creek area, should win the primary.

The fact that 1. Nofs is very moderate 2. He’s very well known and liked in the Battle Creek area and 3. This will be a low turnout special election makes this a tough race for us. Both parties with certainly spend a lot of money here. Martin Griffin is from the Jackson area, which is an advantage, as Mark Schauer lost Jackson County in 2002 when he first ran for the State Senate. If we lose this race it will make it that much more difficult to retake the Senate, so in some ways, whether or not Democrats can gain the trifecta and control redistricting depends on this race.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Candidates:

Martin Griffin (D) State Rep. (2006- )

Sharon Reiner (D)

Mike Nofs (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

C. James Wellman (R) Sandstone Township Board Memeber

Rating: Tossup

For the purposes of this diary, we’re going to assume that both Griffin and Nofs win their respective primaries on August 4th. That’s the most likely result, though if we’re lucky we could see some wingnut action on the Republican side, and if we’re unlucky we could see another Sharon Renier surprise performance on the Democratic side.

A brief introduction to the candidates:

Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek) – Website

Nofs is, basically, our worst nightmare for a special election like this. He’s moderate– or, he is at least very good at projecting that image. Thanks to six years in the state House, 10 years on the Calhoun County Board of Commissioners, and a couple of decades at the Battle Creek state police post, Nofs is really popular in the generally Democratic-leaning city of Battle Creek. The importance of this will become clear soon.

Nofs was term-limited out of the Michigan House of Representatives in 2008. He represented HD-62, now held by Kate Segal (D).

(Interactive Map)

Martin “Marty” Griffin (D-Jackson) – Website

To begin with, let me say that I’m extraordinarily happy to see that Griffin actually has a website. The last I had seen, Griffin was “not sure” if he’d put one up. In other words, don’t expect him to come to the Netroots looking for support.

Griffin served as mayor of Jackson for 11 years. In 2004 he very narrowly lost a race for the state House, only to win the rematch in 2006 and win reelection in 2008. As Menhen noted, Griffin’s base is in Jackson County, where Democrats have previously been weak. It’s worth noting that the city of Jackson claims to be the birthplace of the Republican Party. It’s previously been a pretty solidly Republican seat.

Griffin currently represents HD-64, of which all but Summit Township lies in SD-19.

(Interactive Map)

So we have two state Representatives, each representing hostile territory and yet popular enough to win reelection. Thus far, it sounds like a pretty even match-up.

What kind of a district is SD-19?

Or, perhaps the better way of phrasing it: What does it take for a Democrat to win in SD-19?

As Menhen noted, President Obama did carry the district in 2008, 52.7 to 45.6. Here’s how he did it:

(Interactive Map)

(All election data, except where otherwise cited, was obtained via the Michigan Secretary of State’s Election Precinct Results Search tool.)

Notice that there’s an awful lot of red and only a few patches of blue, yet Obama still won. Most of the townships in the map just don’t have many people in them, meaning that big victories in the small cities of Battle Creek and Jackson (and, to a lesser extent, the other cities) are enough to put a Democrat over the top.

Just to demonstrate, I’ve adjusted the opacity on that map to show how the population is distributed.

(Interactive Map)

Now, that’s not an especially fair map, but I think it makes the point. Battle Creek made up about 20 percent of the voters in the district in 2008 (23,394 votes out of 116,135 total), while many of the rural townships of the district made up only one or two percent. That’s not to say that rural areas don’t matter. Winning big in the rural areas (especially in Jackson County) and keeping the cities close is how to win, if you’re a Republican. Rural votes are just as good as urban ones. But the cities (and Battle Creek in particular) are the foundation of Democratic victories.

That can be seen in then state Rep., later state Sen., and now U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer’s SD-19 victory in 2002:

(Interactive Map)

Results:

County	Mortimer (R)	Schauer (D)
Calhoun	15,673	24,514	40,187
Jackson	16,608	15,159	31,767
Totals	32,281	39,673	71,954
Percentage	44.86	55.14	100

Schauer won SD-19 even more convincingly in 2006– 61-39— but as I remember it (and I don’t live in the district), it wasn’t heavily contested. I think 2002 is better for the current situation.

As Menhen noted, Schauer lost Jackson County, but he made up for it by winning most of Calhoun County, and most of all, by winning Battle Creek convincingly, 66-34.

So that’s the route that other Democrats have taken to win SD-19. Will it work for Marty Griffin?

Let’s look at the electoral histories of HD-62 and HD-64.

First, Griffin in HD-64:

2004

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Baxter (R)	Griffin (D)	Ross (Write-In)
18,787	18,429	498	37,714
49.81	48.87	1.32

2006

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Baxter (R)	Griffin (D)
14,178	15,703	29,881
47.45	52.55

2006

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Prebble (R)	Griffin (D)
14,454	24,260	38,714
37.34	62.66

It took Griffin two tries to get into the state House, but once he got there, the Republicans weren’t able to field a decent candidate against him. Leland Prebble was not especially strong competition.

Griffin’s first two campaigns, though, are the cause of more worry. Rick Baxter, Griffin’s 2004 and 2006 opponent, isn’t a Mike Nofs-like moderate. He’s a rabid, incredibly frightening far-right lunatic, and an ally and former staffer of ex-U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, whose “worst day” of his single term in the legislature was the day they raised the minimum wage. And all the same, Baxter made the race close. That speaks less about Griffin and Baxter and more about just how conservative much of the district is.

The city of Jackson contains about a third of the voters in HD-64 and about 11 percent of the voters in SD-19. I think Griffin can probably still count on that base, but if a guy like Rick Baxter could win the rest of the district, Mike Nofs certainly has that potential.

Can Griffin carry Battle Creek and make some inroads in Calhoun County? Can he follow the same winning path as Obama and Schauer?

Against Mike Nofs, that’s going to be tough. Let’s look at Nofs’ electoral history in HD-62:

2002

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Nofs (R)	Dearing (D)
13,619	11,986	25,605
53.19	46.81

2004

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Nofs (R)	Haley (D)
20,935	18,289	39,224
53.37	46.63

2004

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Nofs (R)	Haley (D)
15,639	13,533	29,172
53.61	46.39

So that’s that. Nofs was elected to three full terms (the maximum allowed under Michigan’s term limit laws), and while he never ran away with it, each time he held even or improved, and each time, he improved his margin in Battle Creek. It’s not that Nofs had to win the city, it’s that he had to make it close enough that his natural advantage in all of the little small villages and towns in the rest of the county carried him over the top. And, of course, the fact that he won Battle Creek in 2004 and 2006 (a strong year for Democrats) was just icing on the cake.

What now?

This leaves us with a frustrating situation. We’ve got the candidate who, on paper, seems like he’d be perfect. His base of support is right in the heart of the Republican part of the district, and he has a history with the voters there.

The problem is, that’s what the other side did, too, and their guy has a history with the bigger city, the one that we generally rely on. It’d be like if our presidential nominee were from Texas, but the Republicans nominated a long-time politician from California. (I feel like that would make for a great seventh season of some sort of television show…)

But all is far from lost. Let’s look at the Obama and Schauer maps again:

(Interactive Map)

There’s a fair amount of territory there that’s not currently represented by either Griffin or was never represented by Nofs. They don’t necessarily have a lot of people, but some of them– especially the townships adjacent to Battle Creek– have a fair number of voters who aren’t nearly as conservative as their neighbors further from the city. The city of Marshall, too, offers Griffin a chance to pick up some more votes.

That’s not going to be easy against Nofs, whose roots in Calhoun County span many decades. Even so, I think it’s possible. It’s also something Griffin might be able to get some help with, as the voters in Calhoun County think Mark Schauer walks on water and recently elected state Rep. Kate Segal (D) 62-38. Democratic state Rep. Mike Simpson also represents the parts of Jackson County that Griffin doesn’t represent, so some good, old-fashioned Democratic teamwork might make this happen.

And in a low-turnout special election, moving your base will be essential. If the GOP base isn’t thrilled with Nofs, that will hopefully give our side a little bit of breathing room. It’s nothing to count on, but it is something.

Possibly connecting to that, there’s also a Libertarian candidate in the race– Greg Merle. From his campaign website:

Man made Global Warming is a complete hoax , can not be proven and is just simply another government scheme to raise taxes on businesses and individuals. […] Our problem is that these enviro nut jobs won’t even debate us on the issue. Their only goal is to loot the American public while at the same time giving China and India a pass.

[…]

Strong supporter of the Fair Tax and eliminating the IRS .

We need to finish up in Iraq and get out post haste, ditto Japan, Germany, South Korea, Kuwait etc. Our Armed Forces have done their job. Besides, those nations hate us anyway. Let’s give these America hating college professors as well as the UN something to really complain about when we pack up and go home.

The Free Market will solve our economic problems if we could only get government out of the way, let leaders lead and creators create.

Hopefully this guy makes enough noise to win over some of those Walberg/Baxter voters who aren’t comfortable with Nofs. Again, it’s nothing to count on, but it’s still something. (You should really read the rest of his issue positions, they’re wonderful. I especially like the link on his Second Amendment plank.)

And on top of all of that, Michigan really does seem to be trending more Democratic in the last few years. Nofs didn’t have to face reelection in 2008, but I’d be willing to bet the Obama coattails would have brought whomever his challenger would have been the 2,000 votes they’d need to overtake him. If Michigan really is becoming more Democratic, Nofs might not have as easy a time as he’s had before.

What will this election tell us?

To be absolutely honest, I don’t think this will tell us much of anything. If it’s a close race and we win, it tells us that Griffin was a good candidate and picking someone from the Jackson County side of the district was a smart move. If it’s a close race and Nofs wins, it means that Nofs was a really good candidate and had a history with the Battle Creek voters. It’s all stuff we already knew, and anything more will just be spin.

We only learn something if it’s a blowout either way, and I’ll be surprised if it is. That said, if Nofs wins with 60 percent or more, I’m going to start to get really nervous about 2010 in Michigan.

Of course, if you’re so inclined, it might be worth sending a few dollars toward Griffin’s campaign anyway.