The tenth district of Texas was once a liberal bastion held by such notable Democrats like Lyndon Johnson and Lloyd Doggett until Tom DeLay’s redistricting scheme diluted the seat’s liberal bent by stretching eastward and incorporating some very conservative areas of the Greater Houston region. Under the current lines, it has a PVI of R+13. However, the trend is positive: while Gore scored only 34% in this district in the 2000 Presidential election, the Democratic performance improved to 38% four years later.
But the real story here is Republican Mike McCaul’s performance in the 2006 election. After going unopposed by Texas Democrats in 2004, McCaul’s share of the vote sagged dramatically last year:
Mike McCaul (R): 55%
Ted Ankrum (D): 41%
Michael Badnarik (Libertarian): 4%
McCaul’s 55% was easily the weakest performance from a Republican incumbent in Texas other than Henry Bonilla. On top of that, Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian Presidential candidate in 2004, outspent fightin’ Democrat Ted Ankrum by a hefty $400k margin and only walked away with 4% of the vote to show for it. Numbers like that would indicate that the Democratic base is pretty solid in this district.
Now, what could be the source of McCaul’s weakness? Is it possible that lingering resentment over the mid-decade redistricting carried over into 2006? Looking at a few of the other beneficiaries of the scheme who were freshmen during the 109th Congress, Representatives Poe, Gohmert, and Conaway all improved on their 2004 margins of victory, although Poe & Gohmert faced sitting incumbents in 2004 and Conaway was unopposed last year. Rep. Marchant (TX-24) did slip a little over the two years, but only by 4 points. No matter how you slice it, 55% is a terrible performance for an incumbent Republican in a district that delivered 62% of its vote to Bush in 2004, even in a rocky year like 2006. There is a weakness here, revealed by Ankrum’s challenge, that perhaps an aggressive challenge can exploit.
One such challenger has already stepped up: Democrat Dan Grant, an international development worker who has worked on USAID projects in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. (He even posted a diary here last week.) I don’t know enough about Grant and his organization to tell whether he’d be a serious nuisance to McCaul, but he has managed to raise nearly $25k on Actblue in just a week or two, a year and a half from election day–and that’s more than one quarter of what Ankrum spent during his entire campaign. He could be a guy–and this could be a district–worth keeping an eye on.
Race Tracker: TX-10
PS: There is another Democratic candidate in this race: Larry Joe Doherty. He looks a little… flavorful.
I thought Ted Ankrum was a terrific candidate, as far as his views on the issues were concerned. I was a little puzzled by the lack of interest in his campaign, in the blogosphere. He said he wouldn’t run again, though.
As to why McCaul did so poorly in 2006, especially when his fellow TX freshmen did quite well?
I polled this district twice in 2006. The first poll was released under ‘Forensic Economics Data Consulting’ and got pretty good coverage in the blogs. Curious name for a pollster though…
I polled again about a week before the election just for my own curiosity. Ted only found out because I called his wife. Looking at the final results, I was dead on for Ankrum and Badnarik, within a half percent for each. But there was a large percentage that polled undecided, and ended up staying with the incumbent. Ted didn’t have the funds to make his case and close the deal, but there were a lot of voters that were open to change.
It won’t be easy, but I think this district is within reach.
Larry Joe Doherty’s TV website is not what you expect of a candidate’s website but folks in the TrueBlue10 group have said he should be taken seriously. Lorenzo Sadun, the Dem candidate for the district in 2004 says:
The Travis end of the district is a lot more friendly, so Houston connections could be the key to painting the district blue. Not taking sides, just making the point that there are two good candidates with different strengths.
Based on county results and this map
Results from the Austin market: 54/40 Ankrum (83K votes)
Results from the Houston market: 70/27 McCaul (90K votes)
(Burleson is in the Waco Market, and went 54/43 for McCaul)
Harris County makes up 66K of those 90K votes and Travis County makes up 74K of 83K votes.
In the Austin market outside of Travis County, McCaul won 52/43.
In the Houston market outside of Harris County, McCaul won 65/31.
I think the key is someone who can afford to make enough of an impression on Harris County to get a good percentage there. Along with a very good Travis County showing.
If this district is retooled, it can make a very interesting swing district, of the blue Travis County parts (outside of Doggett’s district), the red Harris County parts, and a purple filling in-between.
Here. Basically, boosting Travis turnout and nuding Harris performance to the 32% range ought to be enough to win this seat. Tough, but doable. And McCaul really didn’t do that well compared to Republican statewide candidates.
Dan is the Dem consensus candidate to beat McCaul. Larry Joe has no real endorsements, and his experience is playing a judge on a TV show that was a cross between Judge Judy and Jerry Springer. He may be “colorful” but I am looking for a little more than hokey personality in my Comgressman. I have met Dan a few times now and am proud that such a young man has simply a desire to serve and gets what public “service” is all about. If we had more Dan Grant’s in Congress the people’s business would get done instead of simply giving people the business. Good Luck Dan.