Rasmussen (10/5, likely voters, no trend lines):
Charlie Melancon (D): 36
David Vitter (R-inc): 46
Some other: 5
Not sure: 13Charlie Melancon (D): 33
Jay Dardenne (R): 46
Some other: 6
Not sure: 15
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen’s first look at the Louisiana Senate race shows us about what I’d expect — Republican incumbent David Vitter holds a 10-point edge over Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon. In fact, it’s the same spread as a 47-37 internal poll by Anzalone Liszt last month that the Melancon camp was sufficiently pleased with to release. Vitter is below 50, so it’s not an insurmountable edge, but one that indicates the severity of Louisiana’s current lean toward the Republicans (and probably also that Melancon isn’t known well in the northern parts of the state, which is something that can be fixed over the next year).
Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne hasn’t made any moves toward running against Vitter in the primary, although he’s the one prominent figure left in the state who hasn’t ruled it out either. It turns out he matches up a little better against Melancon than does Vitter (apparently, not getting caught in a prostitution ring is worth an additional 3% in Louisiana). Also, apparently, being a Democrat is a bigger sin in Louisiana these days than being a john, if you compare Vitter’s 56/34 favorable vs. Melancon’s 43/39.
RaceTracker Wiki: LA-Sen
so I would consider this a best-case snapshot for Vitter right now. This will be an uphill battle, but not a hopeless one.
That is my first question.
The DSCC needs to play offense in a least a few places against incumbents. LA and NC to be sure.
Dodd might lose when he has been cleared off all wrong doing yet Vitter probably skates. As I said sickening.
Old adage of Louisiana politics: All things being equal, Cajuns vote for Cajuns.
Let’s pray that holds true for ole Congressman Mel-lawn-sawn come election day.
Also, a prostitution scandal is just -3% in popularity in Louisiana? Hilarious. Of course, I guess the survey probably used the name Senator Vitter instead Diaper Dave Vitter.
Vitter for being a hypocritical backbencher and Dodd for his scandals with that mortgage company. He may have been cleared by the Senate panel but the stuff with Countrywide still stinks. Not to mention he was chair of the Banking Committee when Wall Street firms were getting away with murder. Of course its not all his fault, but I like to be consistent. If this were a republican I’d feel he/she didn’t deserve reelection.
Chris Dodd has earned the right to run for re-election. He has been a champion for good, liberal causes for decades. If some wants to primary him fine, but he deserves better treatment than he is currently getting. That is for sure.
Charlie Melancon will give Vitter a hell of a fight. We’ve got the small business owner this time and they’ve got the Ivy League lawyer and of course it’s okay to be Ivy League when you’re a partisan hack like David Vitter.
Is everyone here going to put him down like they do Lincoln?
That Vitter hasn’t been critically wounded by his indiscretions has been known for a while. That Melancon is only ten points behind, despite limited statewide visibility and being a Democrat at what will (hopefully) be the nadir of the party’s polling (especially in conservative Louisiana), seems quite promising.
Still a very uphill climb, but not at all discouraging.