Field Poll (pdf) (9/18-10/6, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jerry Brown (D): 47
Gavin Newson (D): 27
Undecided: 26Meg Whitman (R): 22
Tom Campbell (R): 20
Steve Poizner (R): 9
Undecided: 49
(MoE: ±4.5%)Jerry Brown (D): 50
Meg Whitman (R): 29
Undecided: 21Jerry Brown (D): 48
Tom Campbell (R): 27
Undecided: 25Jerry Brown (D): 50
Steve Poizner (R): 25
Undecided: 25Gavin Newsom (D): 40
Meg Whitman (R): 31
Undecided: 29Gavin Newsom (D): 38
Tom Campbell (R): 33
Undecided: 29Gavin Newsom (D): 39
Steve Poizner (R): 30
Undecided: 31
(MoE: ±3.2%)
His name is ex-Governor Jerry Brown; his aura smiles and never frowns. Soon he will be Governor. Again.
Brown is posting 20-point leads in both the Democratic primary and the general. The only possible obstacle is Dianne Feinstein, who certainly doesn’t seem like she’s about to jump into the race, but would win the Democratic primary with 40% (to 27 for Brown and 16 for Newsom) if she got in. The previous Field Poll (from March) polled primaries only; Brown led Newsom 26-16 then (although that included Antonio Villaraigosa, John Garamendi, and some minor players as well). The one bit of good news here for Gavin Newsom is that, unlike the recent Rasmussen and R2K polls, Field finds him comfortably beating his Republican rivals in the general, if he somehow wins the primary, presumably with a lot of help from new BFF Bill Clinton.
On the Republican side, undecideds still rule the day in the primary. (In March, Whitman led Campbell and Poizner, 21-18-7, so people have made little progress toward making up their minds.) One thing I find strange is that the media have designated frontrunner status to Meg Whitman (despite the flames pouring out of her candidacy while it’s still on the launch pad) or else frames it as a Whitman/Poizner race; this poll should make it abundantly clear that moderate ex-Rep. Tom Campbell is in position to potentially win the primary (although he doesn’t have the money of his opponents, which could hurt him down the stretch). It’s also worth noting that Campbell matches up, a few ticks better, against the Democrats than Whitman or Poizner.
RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Gov
Splitting the conservative vote though I realise Poizner has some maverick in him. So I imagine Campbell has a chance but the money angle will likely do it for Whitman.
Don’t get me wrong, I really don’t have a dog in this hunt as I’m not a huge fan of either candidate to say the least. But there’s still a way for Newsom to win.
First and foremost, he needs to put out a vision for the state that sets him up as an alternative to Brown, framed as the past vs the future. He hasn’t done anything of the sort yet.
Second, he hasn’t hit Brown where it counts for the primary. Brown is coasting on his reputation from years back. He’s like a ghost from a distant, much better past, and he’s got a reputation for being very progressive. In reality, the guy has a lot of quirks and some right wing positions to take aim at. He doesn’t support any new taxes to fix the California budget mess, and in fact wants to cut taxes. He also is opposed to reforming the state prison system and sided with the Glenn Becks of the world in investigating ACORN. Add all that in with his past support for regressive taxes and throw in that clip of him jumping on Hillary Clinton in the debate with Bill many years back and Newsom could unload the political equivalent of a double-barrel shotgun.
Third, there are a lot of new voters that could be brought in to the Newsom camp. Not just young voters, but also the growing latino population in California. Villaraigosa’s exit left a huge vacuum there, and Newsom could well take advantage of it.
Now again, I don’t really like either of these guys. Brown, I think, is a crackpot. Newsom, to me, is a douche. Both are way more conservative than they let on. My only point here is there’s still a path for Newsom to win.
Jerry Brown, Meg Whitman, and Carly Fiorina are gonna win their respective fields. I think with this specific poll, however, Whitman has a problem on her hands – no longer does she appear to be the most competitive against Brown among the GOP contenders; she needs that sort of polling in order to win the nod.
And, I’ve gotta say, I still don’t believe Gavin Newsom is electable in a general. Despite these polls. I feel like in a Newsom/Whitman race, she wins Independents by 20%.
Some days I am leaning towards Brown, other days I am leaning towards Newsome.
I would really need to see these guys in a debate before I could make a decision
And a note about Fienstein, I would love to see her moderation out of the senate, and maybe elect a dem as good or better than Boxer.
This poll is not worth much, but as a former CA resident I expect the following will occur: Whitman will win the GOP nom, Jerry Brown has a ceiling but even if she runs the best race possible, she will come closer than any Fiorina but fall short of beating him by btw 5-8% points and yes, Newsom is completely unelectable in the general.
(1) Whitman wins GOP primary: basically, even the few wingnuts left in the state know only a RINO or moderate Dem with an (R) next to his/her name can win the CA GOV. An oustider with little or no voting record is better than a GOP public officer with one and Whitman can appeal to indies/women etc with her busy high-tech record.
(2) Jerry Brown still comes across as kinda kooky to some and really is unchange from his previous stint as Gov. Luckily for him, he’s been elected statewide recently and most of the conservatives who hounded him in office are dead or moved to AZ, CO and TX. Nonetheless, he has a ceiling because he is not a fresh face and he’s a political incumbent and Californians know thier state government needs radical branch to root change cos the recurring budget and prop-mandated form of government that has crippled the state from Duekmejian to Schwarznegger is not working.
(3) Newsom is unelectable cos he’s just too too far out there and even beyond his Prop 8 bogeyman face, he’s a bit too celebrity-ish for the traditional Dem voters in Soutern CA (where most of the votes are) to be take him seriously. Don’t get me wrong, he could win the nomination but I just think he’d have a hard time running a hard campaign against Whitman (absent some major fumble on her part) to probably hold enough Dems and Indies to beat her in Nov.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
– Only 2% remain undecided.
– A 22% gender gap.
– Corzine only retains the support of 67% of those who voted for him in ’05.
– Christie wins every age group except 65+.
– Christie nets 18% of Dems; Corzine takes 12% of Republicans.
– Daggett’s winning nearly 20% of Hispanics.
I met him at a fundraiser last April. He was a nice person and pretty impressive. As a Californian, I will fully support Brown or Newsom but I’m leaning towards Newsom. If Newsom can’t get it together, I will probably go for Brown.
I am pretty shocked that no clear Hispanic has emerged in the primary. In the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, Hispanic turnout was at 30% without a Hispanic on the ballot. If a Hispanic could win most of the Hispanic and win about 20% of everyone else, that Hispanic should win. It would be a three way race.
As for Newsom, the only supporters he has are the young voters. I am not sure if Newsom is winning San Francisco. Basically, he splits the Bay Area with Brown while Brown wins everywhere else except MAYBE in the University counties like Humboldt and Santa Cruz. Newsom needs to connect with baby boomer Liberals. I do not see him reaching out to organized labor so those boomer Liberals are his last hope. Basically, Newsom is doomed not just by the poll numbers but by demographics.
why Campbell is getting so much support in these polls? I expect them to change once Poizner and Whitman start tossing bundles of money at each other but for Campbell to be a legitimate contender in the polls is quite remarkable.
The Repubs are debating among three losers. Whitman pointlessly called California civil servants arrogant, and LA Times columnist George Skelton turned the adjective back on her in a merciless critique. He called her a demagogue to boot. And he’s a centrist. The arrogance theme is underlined by the fact that Whitman has barely ever bothered to vote, being “too busy” with her family obligations–as if spending fifteen minutes every two years is just too much for someone as important as Whitman. I think that Whitman is now branded as “arrogant.” And her problems only deepen from there.
Poizner has just the personality that his name would lead you to guess. And Campbell, the best of the three, has a long history of being sane, which disqualifies him for the cave-people who dominate the California Republican party. I think they’ll stay home or vote American Independent or Libertarian rather than vote for the RINO Campbell. I’m surprised that Campbell is polling as well as he is. It’s partly name familiarity–he’s been around forever–and partly the weakness of the other two.
I think the Democratic primary will decide the election. I know many here have said that Newsom has killed himself with one thing and another (the Prop 8 ads were devastating), and I do agree that he’s injured himself. But a savvy campaign and some tactical self-reinvention could change everything. He’s young, handsome, and has the aura of a celebrity. We’ll just have to wait for the actual campaign to know. Either Brown or Newsom would be a step up from what we have now.