AZ-03: Shadegg To Retire

Cue the “Dems are doomed! Wave of retirements! Rats jumping ship!” narrative! Another retirement! Oh, wait… another Republican?

Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.), who briefly announced his retirement last cycle but then opted to seek another term, will not run for reelection in 2010, a GOP source confirms.

Shadegg becomes the third Republican to announce his retirement in recent weeks. He joins Reps. Henry Brown (R-S.C.) and George Radanovich (R-Calif.).

Shadegg, as you might recall, attempted to retire in 2008 but thought better of it (or was made to think better of it); he faced a solid challenge from Democrat Bob Lord, although he won by double digits in the end. Looks like he decided 2010 was a safer year, in terms of helping the party retain the seat, for him to hit the exit.

Right now, all the Dems seem to have on the plate is attorney and former Gary Hart staffer Jon Hulburd, although maybe an open seat will generate some interest higher up on the totem pole (this R+9 seat in middle-class and mostly white northern Phoenix, Republican as long as it has existed, doesn’t seem to have much Democratic bench though). As for a candidate on the GOP side, Shadegg’s Chief of Staff, Sean Noble, may be interested in succeeding his boss.

UPDATE: OK, it sounds like the Dem establishment will be happy to have Jon Hulburd stay in the race: he’s about to report $300,000 raised last quarter, and that’s from donors, not from his own wallet (although apparently he can self-fund too if need be). That might change the assumptions about Shadegg’s motivations, too — not wanting to face another tough race, rather than departing out of confidence. This race will be worth keeping an eye on.

RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-03

13 thoughts on “AZ-03: Shadegg To Retire”

  1. I know this is a bad year for dems and blah blah blah, but that guy was a total machine when it came to fundraising, so who knows. Especially if the political climate improves between now and November.

    Has Lord ruled out another run?

  2. McCain on the ticket can’t have helped. Yet despite that he won it by less than Bush did in 2004.

    2008 McCain 57-42%

    2004 Bush 58-41%

    2000 Bush 54-42%

    Dems need to find some offense and this seems as good opportunity as any outside the usual suspects.

  4. Jon Hulburd or another random rich guy is probably our best bet.

    We do have one State Rep, Eric Mayer, who is in his first term and represents a district at the southern end of AZ-03 that includes Arcadia, Camelback Mountain and Paradise Valley (and is, IIRC, Shadegg’s home turf). He’s a potential rising star if he wants to be, but seeing as he passed up the chance to go for his district’s open State Senate seat this year, I doubt he’s interested in jumping into a house race that would be much more difficult.

  6. is apparently advising Hulburd.  The two are friends.  I don’t see any internecine warfare here.

    Republicans should be able to hold this seat, but the problem is that the entire Republican part of the state legislature is absolutely loathed by the electorate right now, and has been for a very long time.  Of the six previous Republicans to win open Congressional seats in Arizona, only one was a sitting state legislator (Matt Salmon back in 1994), while of the four Democrats who’ve been newly-elected since then, three were sitting state legislators (Kirkpatrick, Mitchell, and Giffords).  That’s a pretty impressive differential.

    So a Republican who held this seat would need to be some sort of countywide elected official (a Maricopa County Supervisor, for instance) or statewide appointed official, or else someone with a background outside politics, like those of J. D. Hayworth, Jeff Flake, and Rick Renzi.

  7. I contributed to him in 2008 and I just got this email.  He’s apparently milking his list to promote other causes:

    The Bondurant School is proud to support the organization below.  We are passing along this information in hopes that more lives will be saved.

    All:

    Many of you were kind enough to help me last year in my campaign for Congress.

    I hope you’ll consider helping in a new campaign — a non-partisan (and tax deductible!) campaign to save thousands of lives and spare untold misery to surviving family members.

    Cellphone use behind the wheel literally is killing us. A Harvard study now estimates the number of cellphone driving related deaths at 2600 per year, according to the New York Times. And virtually all of it is unnecessary. You’ve all read the reports and know that laws are being considered and undoubtedly will be passed. But those laws won’t be enough. In the places where laws have been enacted, they’re already being ignored by thousands of drivers. And do we really want to place the burden of this problem on our police, who already are over-burdened in their effort to fight crime?

    So, my friend Steve Farley and I have established a new charitable organization, Citizens for Cellphone Sanity, to raise public awareness of the dangers of cellphone use by drivers. Our goal is to launch a campaign along the lines of the “Don’t Be a Litterbug” and “Buckle Up” campaigns, which, as you know, were so successful in reaching their goals. If we’re successful, we’ll help to change public behavior, and save thousands of lives. I’ll hope you’ll help us by visiting our website, http://www.cellphonesanity.org, reading a little bit more and making a contribution.

    If you’d like to make a contribution of any amount, you can donate by clicking here.

    Thanks so much in advance for your help.

    Bob Lord

  8. has a good insidery post on potential candidates for this seat.  The most likely name on the Republican side seems to be State Rep. Sam Crump, with some other state reps and possibly some statewide officeholders on tap.  For the Dems, there’s talk that Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon might run, but Gordon makes Joe Lieberman look like a loyal Democrat — he’d get crushed in a primary by Hulburd.

Comments are closed.