If Obama were to somehow win Alabama in 2012 and be the first Democrat to since Carter, here’s how it would go:
As you can see, this victory map roughly parallels Alabama’s “Black Belt” in the Southern portion. Counties like Greene and Sumter are Democratic even in huge Republican years, and the large Montgomery County is also growing more and more liberal. However, more rural, split counties like Conecuh and Choctaw, which Gore won but Kerry and Obama couldn’t, are tougher nuts to crack; they’re trending away from us. Of course, I haven’t even touched on the large urban counties that Obama would need to win: Tuscaloosa, home of the University, would be more possible, with a high college and Black turnout, as would Mobile, with its Black turnout. Jefferson, containing Birmingham, was narrowly won by Obama two years ago. The toughest part are the next few counties: more rural Coosa, Tallapoosa, and Chambers in the East are not that African-American, and Madison, containing Huntsville, NEVER is in contention. Neither is Lee, which contains Auburn and the large university there. I would have to say that while this map is not quite as impossible as I would have expected, it is very improbable, and Obama probably could never win counties like Mobile, Madison, and Lee.
Now for Arkansas
I actually think this is less likely than Alabama. There are fewer Blacks (only 15 counties are even 1/3, and Obama already won 8 of those), and there’s a huge trend away from us. Kerry won some of the counties here that Obama wouldn’t even win while winning 60% nationwide. Now, back to the map: I thought that this looked similar to Gore’s results until I saw that Obama would have to win Washington Co. Now this is a college county (U of Ark. is there), but it’s also in Wal-Mart, AR-3 territory. Clinton only won it once, I believe. So I don’t think Obama could really ever win this; he won’t be more popular than Clinton. Other than that, it’s the standard (for both Arkansas and Ohio) East and South, with a large city in the center (Little Rock for AR, Columbus for OH). However, OH is more Dem because of the North, a very Republican region here. Overally, I say this is pretty
far out of reach.
California:
I don’t think I need to say much. I find this map ridiculous. Obama losing Sacramento? Really?
Please do Utah next. Then show us how Mitt Romney can win Vermont.
I am just kidding. This was an interesting read. What percentage would Obama need nationwide to make this possible? 60%?
to when Reagan and GHW Bush carried it in the 80’s. It looks like it’s been the bluing of the SoCal suburban counties that has transformed California from a swing state to the Democratic bastion it is now.
That map is probably what Tom Campbell (or Fiorina, I guess) would need to produce to unseat Boxer, although I think Campbell would overperform in the Bay Area a little since he used to represent San Jose in Congress.
Would you mind if I copied the Arkansas image and used it on Blue Arkansas? (full credit given of course.) I agree that an Obama 2012 win is, to put it likely, unlikely, but I think that map could be used as a template for other candidates and races, perhaps even as a general idea for what activists here can do to help the nominee in 2016 carry the state, whoever he or she may be.
Would you mind?
I thought Obama would win more counties in Arkansas. He did not even win counties in the southwest that Kerry carried. This is really interesting.
Are you assuming a uniform swing or using a more complicated analysis?