MS-03: Could Mike Moore Run?

With the surprise retirement announcement of Republican Rep. Chip Pickering on Thursday, the bulk of the attention has been focused on potential Republican candidates for the seat (see here).  Given that Pickering’s district has a strong Republican lean (R+14.1), such speculation is certainly understandably.  But a Democratic bench does indeed exist in Mississippi’s third, and with the obvious Republican heavyweight, Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck (herself a former Democrat), declining the opportunity to run according to the Commercial Dispatch, the field could get a lot more interesting on both sides of the partisan divide.

One such Democratic bench member with ties to the district is none other than former state Attorney General Mike Moore, and currently practices law in Jackson, a city partially located within the 3rd Congressional District.  Moore, who left a stellar record during his time as AG, was considered a likely Democratic candidate for Senate in the event of a Trent Lott or Thad Cochran retirement.  But with Cochran likely to run again, Haley Barbour looking mostly strong in his gubernatorial re-election bid this year, and the AG post safe in the hands of Democrat Jim Hood, Moore could not satisfy his statewide ambitions for at least another four or five years (either for a gubernatorial bid in 2011 or a run at Lott’s Senate seat in 2012, if open).  And while Moore was very popular during his four terms as AG from 1988-2004, the last time that his name was on the ballot was in 1999–a considerably long political hiatus.

If Moore wanted to keep his name recognition alive and well, running for–and more importantly, winning–a rare open Mississippi House seat would certainly help him keep his name in the public consciousness.  So will he do it?  The early answer, delivered via a surrogate, is no:

Former state Attorney General Mike Moore – a Democrat who ran for the U.S. House in 1989 – said he’s not interested in seeking Pickering’s seat, according to Jonathan Compretta, an associate in Moore’s law firm who’s campaign manager for current Attorney General Jim Hood.

Under normal circumstances, that would be that.  But are Mississippi Democrats willing to take that as their final answer?  According to Will Bardwell, the locals are at least putting in the effort to persuade Moore to look seriously at the race:

Word around the campfire is that Democrats are attempting to schedule a meeting with former Attorney General Mike Moore to persuade him to run for Chip Pickering’s congressional seat.

The move would make all the sense in the world for Moore, whose ultimate goal is the U.S. Senate but whose name recognition and political stock have been collecting dust since he left state government in January 2004. A seat in Congress would be an ideal launching pad and would keep Moore’s name recognition fresh while he waits for a Senate seat to open in either 2012 or 2014.

The only drawback is that, as of now, Moore carries no real political baggage, which would inevitably change in a hurry after a few years in the House of Representatives. Still, manageable political baggage may be less of a hurdle in 2012 than nearly a decade of political decay.

So on the one hand, Moore could keep his profile alive by risking controversial votes on issues such as the war in Iraq, abortion, and immigration (assuming he wins), or he could risk facing a bit of a “whodat” factor in future statewide races by not having his name on any ballot in twelve or thirteen years.

If Moore is firm in his “no”, the Democratic bench is not short on other potential recruits, such as former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, and former Reps. Wayne Dowdy and Ronnie Shows (the latter of whom lost badly to Pickering in 2002 when their districts were merged after the 2000 census).  Shows, for his part, seems like a strong possibility to give this district another crack:

Shows said he’s antsy to get back in Congress and might seek the seat again.

“Certainly I’m interested in it, but I got to think about it,” he said today.

“I’m looking at it very strongly. … I miss being there, but I’ve been pretty successful since leaving,” he said.

In any event, with open seats an especially rare occurrence in Mississippi, state Democrats have pledged to field a serious contender for the open seat.  While there’s no doubt it would be an uphill climb, would-be challengers could look to Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor, who won his Mississippi House seat with 65% of the vote in a special election in 1989 less than a year after Michael Dukakis collected an ugly 30% of the district’s vote, for inspiration.

UPDATE: Cotton Mouth offers more possible Democratic and Republican candidates.