Public Policy Polling (9/2-6, likely voters, 6/19-21 in parens):
Bill White (D): 42 (43)
Rick Perry (R-inc): 48 (43)
Undecided: 12 (14)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
PPP’s switch from a registered to a likely voter model gives Rick Perry a six-point lead. Interestingly, that switch only translated into a 52-41 McCain sample from a 51-41 sample in June. However, the sample is significantly more Republican (47R-30D from 43R-37D in June) and whiter (70% from 66%).
Despite Perry’s edge, Tom Jensen calls White, along with Colorado’s John Hickenlooper, “one of the two strongest new Democratic candidates in the country this year”. That’s evidenced by White’s promising 44-29 favorable rating, especially when stacked up against Perry’s 36-49 approval rating. More:
The race is confounding the major trends we’re seeing in most contests across the country. White is winning independents 53-34. Republicans have the lead with them most everywhere else. White’s winning 82% of Democrats while Perry’s getting 77% of Republicans. Republican voters are more unified than Democrats most everywhere else. But there are a lot more GOP voters than Dems in Texas so Perry’s still ahead anyway.
PPP also tested the Lt. Governor’s race, and finds incumbent David Dewhurst up by 54-34 on his spirited Democratic challenger, Linda Chavez-Thompson. That Bill White is poling competitively while the lower-ticketed races look like Solid R affairs is both a testament to White’s strength – and Perry’s weakness.
Meanwhile, PPP’s Dustin Ingalls takes a look at an issue that may have some resonance in Texas this year (much as it did in 1994): term limits.
and 15%-25% in most other states.
PPP’s turnout models are so illogically inconsistent it’s hard to even imagine how they can release these polls.
It seems like, with Dems basically conceding TN, OK, KS, and losing badly in MI and PA, all that remains is to shore up IL (not a lost cause a la MI just yet), OR, MD, NM (very good bang for buck I would imagine here), and play offense in CA (still very gettable), FL, and TX. I’m taking it as a given that Vermont’s gonna swing, and that Maine isn’t as bad as it looks.
The DGA can afford to cut Bernero lose if his numbers don’t improve late September, and Onorato has the 8 year governor’s switch working against him in an awful political climate for Democrats. If the Dems scale back their resources, conceivably we can come out of the 2010 midterms with a net loss of only 2, which is marginally acceptable even though those states are where the mansion would help big time.
White and Sink look to be extremely and surprisingly competitive this year, and winning those two enormous states can very much mitigate gerrymanders and ensure that the delegations remain fair.
but I can’t help thinking that the top-lines wouldn’t be so great if they hadn’t asked the Perry approval question first. 🙁 I mean, yes, Texans hate Rick Perry, but there is just a huge GOP partisan advantage down here.
looks like result was not primed by homeowner’s insurance question, but might have been primed by prior Texas right track/wrong track question
Still, looks like pretty good evidence of the home-owner’s insurance issue as a way to attract ticket-splitters.
Another good strategy would be to remind voters that a vote for Rick Perry is a vote for Rick Perry.