440 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  5. Markos opined today that Snowe should just switch parties now.

    She gets 2 years to establish her bona fides to Dem voters in 2012 and have an easy primary win. She avoids having to do a Jeffords, or to go the Crist independent route without a major party machine behind her re-election.

    Otherwise she’s of course facing an ugly Repub primary.

    http://www.swingstateproject.c…

  10. I’ve never tried suggesting an open thread question yet, and I hope this is not all too tangential, but here goes:

    As a foreigner obsessively following US elections, I always wonder about the possible counterparts I might have on your end. You guys are among the proudest and best-informed political geeks around. Are there elections abroad which you follow closely as well?

    If so, do you have favoured parties or candidates? Which countries do you know well enough, politically, to say: If I lived there, I would vote for person/party X? I’d love to know who the Xs would be, of course. 🙂 Any fans of Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, the Spanish PSOE, the German Greens?

  13. Thinking about NH and DE primaries. On the bright side, after Tuesday, all the tough primaries are over, and I can be happy again thinking about Nov without worrying about Erick Erickson and crew fucking it up.  

  15. I thought it would be interesting to see from everybody what October surprises we might see this year that would effect the outcome of the election.

    Until earlier this week I thought the game changing October surprise would be Obama and the Dems in congress coming out for extending the Bush tax cuts for another 2 year.

    The thought was this would knock the wind out of the sails of the GOP and make the Dems the party of tax cuts right before November. But the way the debate is shaping up I am growing doubtful Obama will do this.

    So any thoughts on October surprises? Attack Iran? Get a middle east peace deal? Capture Osama bin Laden? What do the SSPers think?

  18. tonight. he really is hilarious, and seems like a great guy. my dad got to talk to him, 30 years after being ignored at a town hall due to being too young. wyden might be up there with klobuchar as one of the funniest senators.  “i have a perfect face for radio” is one of his good quotes.

    i also got offered an internship, but i live in the wrong state, so unless i go to dc for college, idk…

  23. Kathleen Rice or Eric Schneiderman?  

    I’ve been trying to figure out who has the advantage turn-out wise but this race really has had very little polling.

    If turnout is decent on Long Island, I think Rice has a good chance of pulling it out, she may even draw even with Schneiderman in Queens.

    NYC will probably be Schneiderman country otherwise, just by name recognition (though I see Rice ads on TV too).

    Upstate…I have no idea.

    Any thoughts?

    Oh, and I hope Chris Cox wins in NY-01.  The ads you-know-what themselves.

  24. http://www.theatlantic.com/pol…

    Based on data between ’84 and ’08 —

    All data based on ratings made before election day…

    Across 11 elections (1984-2008) the Cook Report correctly called races rated “solid, likely or leaning to the Republicans” a whopping 97.5 percent of the time. On the Democratic side, the Cook Report was right 97.8 percent of the time.

    w/r/t tougher races:

    But Campbell broke out those races and the predictions were still very good (85.7 percent).

    and toss-ups

    Even the Cook Report’s “toss up” category was accurate: Republican-held seats rated “toss up” stayed Republican 55 percent of the time, Democratic toss ups, 49.2 percent of the time.

  26. Dave Loebsack went up with a positive tv ad district wide on Thursday. View it on his campaign website. I did a transcript and a brief analysis of the race at Bleeding Heartland. It turns out Mariannette Miller-Meeks considered dropping out this summer after her husband lost his job.

    Loebsack hasn’t released any internal polling, but since this is a positive ad I hope his polling isn’t too bad! IA-02 is D+7 but has pockets of very high unemployment.

  29. does anyone think SSP’s model of election discussion would work in real life.  There are very few political clubs at my new school (not even a political science league/club) and I’m thinking of trying to start a political elections club, but I’m skeptical there are enough people interested (after the general election at least).

  30. Any updates from locals or close followers? A Fenty loss seems likely according to polling but polling can be wrong. Will his opponent make a good Mayor? Is he as progressive? What is his stance on gay issues? Is Fenty in trouble just because of anti incumbency or is there anything in particular? I remember Chris Matthews mentioned his poor handling of the snow storm and mentioned his poor relation with the City Council.  

  31. was just wondering something about NY-23. Had Scozzafava not endorsed Owens would he have won? I think not. It was narrow and I personally think it put Owens over the top. Any thoughts?

  32. What if, instead of Ed Cox, NY Republicans would have elected the guy Rudy and Pataki both strongly supported as chairman? Do you think they both would have run this year, to make him successful? Do you think Cox winning had an effect on them not running, just to spite him?  

  37. A sample:

       U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte pondered her political future using her state Department of Justice e-mail account, according to a review of thousands of e-mails sent and received by the former state attorney general.

       “Bottom line though when will an opportunity like this come along again?” Ayotte, who is seeking the Republican nomination in Tuesday’s primary, wrote about her Senate candidacy in an April 25, 2009, e-mail to Rob Varsalone, who is now a campaign consultant. “Do you see it? And without risk, there is no gain.”

    From this article:

    http://www.unionleader.com/art…

    It’s also on DK:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

  39. There is a list of Democratic House districts that are popularly thought (by people like Silver, Cook, Sabato) to be ripe for a Republican takeover that I have my doubts about. So I’m watching these to see if the Republicans can pull out a win here. Some of these districts are:

    NV-3

    PA-8

    OH-1

    OH-15

    NH-1

    MI-7

    NC-8

    WV-1

    FL-24

    AZ-1

    NY-24

    We’ll see, I guess.  

  42. Don’t forget that this is a poll of registered — not likely — voters.  As we have seen this cycle, most likely voter screens tend to improve GOP candidate margins by several percent.  Accordingly, one can conclude that had Mason Dixon utilized a reasonable likely voter screen, Angle might be ahead by a couple of percent.  

    Plus, undecideds (six percent in this poll) tend to vote against the incumbent.  Assuming that Angle wins these undecideds two-to-one over Reid (not incredibly unrealistic) her margin would improve by another two percent or so.  

    So, if you want to look at the glass as half-empty, you could walk away from this poll projecting a 50-46 Angle win.  

    Just saying . . .  

  43. PPP tweets that Coons chances look better than a month ago regardless of who wins the primary. Something is telling me Beau Biden regrets not getting in this thing. Also as someone else posted both NH and Delaware primaries are single digits and earlier PPP tweeted that O’Donnell has a better shot than Ovide. Anyone who votes for O’Donnell over Castle needs a mental examination.  

    http://twitter.com/ppppolls/st…

  47. Im interested in hearing what people from MA, particularly MassGOP think about this. There are two guys running write in campaigns for AG as Republicans, since no one filed to run against Martha Coakley. They need 10k write in votes/sticker votes to be the nominee. One, James McKenna, has actually picked up some establishment support. My question is: Does anyone think he can actually get the 10k votes, and 2. Is Coakley even vulnerable?

    1. The % are the chance of winning, not vote total. Conceivably, if there were a district of 51% Democrats who always vote and 49% Republicans who always vote. The Republican would get 49% of the vote but have 0% chance of winning under Nate’s model. Assuming that Cook, campaign committees, etc. knew the nature of the district.

      I think there’s enough close polling that it has to be toss-up, and that Whitman ad featuring Bill Clinton is devastating.

  48. Predixs for Delaware and NH PPP results tonight? PPP tweeted that both results will be within single digits and Delaware is closer than NH.

    I’ll throw one out for Delaware

    Castle- 44

    O’Donnell- 40

    Undecided- 16

    1. You’re right. If I were Nate, I wouldn’t have been that specific. I would have just listed the top number. There’s no way you can project vote totals. Some losers vote will collapse. Others will run good campaigns, etc. etc.

    1. The problem is that most of the Republicans that will win in November are not going be the types that would support his psychotic bid to be leader.  His pipe dream is fading fast as only Miller and Paul probably will support his bid.  I doubt that Toomey or Rubio would break ranks.  Buck might, but I suspect in the end he would fall in line too.  The rest including Castle would never vote for DeMint.

  51. is PPP releasing their numbers? I am anxious. I could use some good news with the Colts losing tonight. I am not happy. A narrow Castle lead would make up for a Colts loss.  

    1. usually isn’t a year or so long endeavor.  it takes a long time and unless demint subscribes to the “i don’t care about turns, i do what i want” aspect of politics, he probably knows it.  mcconnell won’t stay leader for long, especially when his favorables are constantly under water.  As long as demint knows he’s playing a waiting game he could be leader one day,.  

    2. These are the senators that would or could vote for DeMint.  The first 14-16 are almost a lock.  They either room with DeMint, or have been endorsed by him or are his idealogical twin. This assumes 51 or more GOPers in the next Senate.

      DeMint

      Coburn

      Inhofe

      Lee

      Angle  

      Buck

      Rubio

      Toomey

      Paul

      Miller

      Johnson

      O’Donnell

      Moran

      Vitter

      Lamontage (sp?)

      Ensign

      From those add 10 more from these 16:

      Sessions

      Boozman

      Burr

      Isakson

      Chambliss

      Wicker

      Barrasso

      Hoeven

      Enzi

      Crapo

      Risch

      Roberts

      Johanns

      Graham (same state)

      Rossi

      Fiorina

      Remember, this will be a secret ballot vote. Also, if the Senate goes GOP, the House definitely will flip. The resulting emboldened Tea Party/Limbaugh/Palin crowd will DEMAND that the GOP heed it’s call for more conservative leadership.

  55. In the Republican House Primary for Delaware at large Glen Urquhart leads Michele Rollins 50-38% with Rose Izzo way back at 3%.

    I don’t know much about this race but Urquhart leads with liberals and conservatives and Rollins leads with moderates.

    1. I think Castle will still win pretty comfortably, probably with a margin in the range of 15-20%. O’Donnell has lots of national buzz, but I highly doubt it’ll translate into much on the ground. As I’ve said many times before, Delaware Republicans are some of the most moderate, mainstream, sensible Republicans around – they went 80% for McCain/Romney in the ’08 primaries.

    2.  Is like all the public employee unions for Bill Halter in Arkansas. The NRA is not big in Delaware. The Republicans there are mostly Republican for economic reasons, not God, guns and gays. It may help in rural southern Delaware but most of Delaware’s population is urban. An endorsement from Scott Brown or Chris Christie would have been way more helpful for O’Donnell. I wonder if Palin will actually hurt more than help here. She will raise money but actual votes…

      It’s a bit too late for all the momentum. Still, this is a year with surprises.

    3. People don’t want to vote for Democrats this year, but they have their lines in the sand they won’t cross to vote for Republicans, and Ovide always has been on the wrong side of that line in NH.  He might not necessarily be as batshit crazy as Angle, but he’s very far right, and Hodes is going to be in great shape the rest of the way if he gets to run against Lamontagne.

    4. He’s been winning Republican primaries for decades against much better candidates than O’Donnell, who is much too far right for Delaware and has serious character issues. He’ll get all the “strategic votes” since he will be a heavy favorite in the general while O’Donnell would be a hopeless underdog. If Delaware had an open primary he might be vulnerable to mischief-making independents and crossover Democrats, but it’s a closed primary.  

    1. know they were brought about for all of the wrong reasons but I think runoffs are a great thing. I really do think you should get a clear majority to be a winner. I mean 70% of the district voted against him yet the corrupt slimebag gets another term.  

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