39 Steps Update, Six Weeks Out

This is a post-primary version of a diary that I wrote almost 2 months ago, that detailed the most likely route Republicans would have to take to reclaim the House–in other words, if the GOP were to win the chamber by one seat, which districts would they have to flip? A lot has changed since late July–more forecasters are calling a takeover “likely,” but many Democratic incumbents have put out polling showing that they are in better shape than some had thought. In addition, some races that weren’t on many people’s radars are now hotly contested. So, six weeks before the election, here’s a suggested path to 39.

1. Tennessee’s 6th (Middle TN)–Rep. Diane Black. She’d best get used to the title, it could be hers for a long time. (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. New York’s 29th (South Tier)–Likewise, Corning Mayor Tom Reed can start thinking about how he wants to decorate his office, although he’ll be potentially vulnerable after redistricting. (PR: 4)

3. Louisiana’s 3rd (South)–The October 2nd runoff is the last primary race of interest, and the late date is annoying for likely winner Jeff Landry. But not too annoying. (PR: 2)

4. Arkansas’ 2nd (Central)–Smooth sailing for Tim Griffin. Arkansas looks like trouble for Democrats, both now and over the next decade. (PR: 3)

5. Kansas’s 3rd (KCK)–Stephene Moore is doing little to suggest that she’s going to hold this seat, and Democrats may have a better chance at breaking through in KS-04 (more on that matchup later) than hanging on here. Kevin Yoder is a good match for this area. (PR: 7)

6. Ohio’s 1st (Cincinnati)–The Buckeye State looks like it’s going to be fertile ground for Republicans this fall. Call me crazy, but the gubernatorial and Senate races could both end up 58/42 if Democrats don’t do something to get their voters to the polls. But either way, Driehaus is in a deep hole and is probably looking to 2012 and a chance for revenge with Obama coattails. (PR: 11)

7. Indiana’s 8th (Southwest)–The famed Bloody 8th never stays with one party for too long, and although Brad Ellsworth had a strong hold on this district, it looks like it’s ripe to change hands again. Larry Bucshon would, I believe, be the only member of the House Cardiovascular Surgeon Caucus, if he defeats Trent Van Haaften. (PR: 8)

8. Virginia’ 5th (Southside)–Even this loyal Republican will admit that Tom Perriello is everything a Congressman should be: hardworking, principled, and honest. And if he lived one district south, in NC-13, he’d be assured of a long career. But this district is just too conservative for a progressive Democrat to hold this year, and all polling has Rob Hurt in the lead. (PR: 9)

9. Virginia’s 2nd (VA Beach)–Glenn Nye represents a district politically and demographically similar to Perriello’s, but is a more conservative Democrat. On the other hand, he has a much better challenger in Scott Rigell, who grabbed the lead here a while ago and has shown no signs of fading. (PR: 13)

10. Ohio’s 15th (Columbus)–Mary Jo Kilroy has been in trouble since the day she took office after a squeaker of a victory, and Steve Stivers has been running for almost 4 years now. In a neutral year, Stivers would probably be a slight underdog, but the environment and upticket races make him the favorite. Look for the Ohio GOP to pull its hair out over trying to protect him in redistricting. (PR: 14)

11. Maryland’s 1st (Eastern Shore)–Frank Kratovil’s internals show that he’s not out of this, but Andy Harris’ strong primary victory over credible opposition suggests that the GOP is more united this time. The 1st is 22 points more Republican than Maryland, meaning Ehrlich will romp here and Mikulski will lose if she’s held under 70 statewide. (PR: 6)

12. Mississippi’s 1st (North)–This race hasn’t really changed much. Travis Childers and Alan Nunnelee have recently each posted leads in internals. While not a particularly representative area of the rest of the country, it’s a great night for Democrats if they hold this one. (PR: 10)

13. North Dakota–The DCCC pulled out, which is as strong an indicator as any that Rick Berg is ahead of Earl Pomeroy here. This remains below the other seats because Pomeroy has survived tough cycles before and there’s time for him to pull an electoral rabbit out of the hat. Remember, 70% of people who vote in this election will do so just after voting for John Hoeven. (PR: 13)

14. New Hampshire’s 2nd (West)–A bit of a downgrade here, as Charlie Bass underwhelmed in his primary while Annie Kuster posted a strong showing. Nonetheless, Bass has led in every public poll, and Kuster’s fate probably hinges on late magic from Paul Hodes in the Senate race. (PR: 5)

15. Pennsylvania’s 7th (Western Philly Suburbs)–Pennsylvania may not be the bloodbath Ohio is, but the GOP looks poised to win several statewide races and House seats. Senate nominee Joe Sestak’s open seat remains the best opportunity, but…..

16. Pennsylvania’s 11th (East Central)–Not by much, as the 11th looks likely to flip as well. Paul Kanjorski can thank President Obama for extending his stay in Congress by 2 years, but it’s hard to see how he does it on his own this year. Lou Barletta may finally win despite himself. (PR: 17, 20)

17. Colorado’s 4th (East)–Steady as she goes for Cory Gardner, who continues to impress in his campaign to unseat Betsy Markey. (PR: 21)

18. Arkansas’ 1st (East)–This race, like the whole state, has really slipped away from Democrats recently. Chad Causey’s most recent internal has him up 2, but he’s trailed in all other polling and Rick Crawford has proven to be a worthy opponent, which may be all he needs this year. (PR: NR)

19. Illinois’ 11th (Exurban Chicago)–Likewise, things have gotten out of hand for Debbie Halvorson since late July. She appears to be trailing Iraq vet Adam Kinzinger in a district Brady and Kirk will both win on Election Day, and her campaign has not exactly caught fire like it did in 2008. (PR: 41)

20. Illinois’ 14th (North Central)–The race in the neighboring 11th has gotten much more of the attention, but this contest is strikingly similar. Super-freshman Bill Foster has never run in anything but a good environment for Democrats, has never had to deal with upticket problems, and has never faced an opponent as strong as Randy Hultgren. (PR: 19)

And, if Democrats can hold their losses right there, it will be cause for celebration from Martha’s Vineyard to San Francisco. But let’s keep going……

21. Washington’s 3rd (Southwest)–Jaime Herrera surprised many with her strong performance in the top two primary, and now must be considered a slight favorite to win this open seat. Denny Heck is a strong nominee as well and will keep this interesting. Polling has Herrera up but the race tightening. (PR: 36)

22. Michigan’s 1st (North and UP)–This race moves up slightly because the governor’s race looks safer for the GOP than it did last time. The Democrats have a strong nominee, but the Republicans did the right thing in nominating Dan Benishek, who is both a Yooper and an outsider. These are the kinds of open seats you can’t really lose if you want to take the House. (PR: 24)

23. Wisconsin’s 7th (Northwest)–Sean Duffy is a candidate who has over-performed to this point, as many considered this district safe for Democrats even without Dave Obey. But the former reality star has run a great show to this point, and the DCCC seems worried about Julie Lassa’s ability to keep up with him, hammering him with attacks that may or may not stick. (PR: NR)

24. Florida’s 24th (Space Coast)–Suzanne Kosmas has not done much to endear herself here, and changing her vote on HCR may be a fatal mistake. GOP nominee Sandy Adams is neither the strongest nor the weakest challenger I’ve ever seen, but she looks capable of getting to 50%+1. Democrats are hoping that Adams’ views will come off as “extreme,” but in the age of O’Donnell they’ll have to do a lot better than attacking her on the 17th Amendment. (PR: 25)

25. Ohio’s 16th (South of Cleveland)–Nothing has changed about this race since my last installment, but Ohio as a whole has become more hostile to Democrats, and Jim Renacci remains a very difficult opponent for freshman John Boccieri, whose path to victory is narrowing. (PR: 28)

26. Florida’s 2nd (Tallahassee)–Allen Boyd barely survived his primary and faces a fairly generic Republican in Steve Southerland. This one comes down to the Dixiecrats: do they stick with the Blue Dog, who flipped his vote on HCR, or do they go with the outsider, who’s looking to join Charlie Wilson in the House Mortician Caucus? Crist could save Boyd here. (PR: NR)

27. Tennessee’s 8th (West)–GOP nominee Steven Fincher won his primary convincingly and now faces a strong Democrat in Roy Herron. That this race has moved down has less to do with any developments here as it does to do with positive movement for the GOP in other districts. If Fincher wins, it will represent the end of an era in West Tennessee politics. (PR: 23)

28. New York’s 19th (Hudson Valley)–Dr. Nan Hayworth has been running a solid campaign under the radar for a while now, and the first poll of this race shows her slightly ahead of John Hall. Plenty of time for Hall to turn it around, but Hayworth’s cash advantage is not going to make things easy for him. Joe DioGuardi, who is doing surprising well in his longshot Senate race, is from this area. (PR: 32)

29. New York’s 24th (Central Upstate)–Mike Arcuri, who barely held on two years ago, apparently realized the importance of campaigning hard and early this time around, as he’s led in the last two polls of this race. But Richard Hanna still has room to define himself, especially in the rural areas of the district, and can use Arcuri’s HCR waffle to his advantage. (PR: 16)

30. New Hampshire’s 1st (East)–Carol Shea-Porter is still her quirky self, but she now knows her opponent: Frank Guinta, the former mayor of Manchester. That’s good news for her, as Guinta has less money and more baggage than some of his primary opponents. But he also carries a strong home base into the general, and the Granite State may be growing tired of CSP’s antics. (PR: 22)

Since the last installment, the playing field has changed to the point where anything under 30 seats picked up will be a disappointment for Republicans. The following 13 seats separate an “adequate” night from a very good one.

31. Florida’s 8th (Orlando)–I don’t know what to make of this race. Alan Grayson is essentially a louder form of Jerrold Nadler transported from Manhattan to a slightly Republican area of Central Florida. But he’s also a machine of a fundraiser and touts a poll that seems almost too good to be true. Daniel Webster emerged rather decisively from a crowded primary and has a long history in the district (good news for him), but has little money and has a Tea Party candidate to deal with (bad news.) In the end, this will be a battle of The Bold and The Bland, and the district could go either way in the upticket races. (PR: 15)

32. Pennsylvania’s 8th (Berks County)–Laddies and lassies, we’ve got a fine O’Tossup on our hands. Mister Murphy and Mister Fitzpatrick both be claimin’ they’re ahead, and they’ve each run some fine ads on the telly. I tell ye, it may come down to how well Mister Toomey does here. Pour yerself a pint o’ Guinness, political junkies–this one’s going to be fearful close! (PR: 38)

**Apologies to my fellow Irish SSP readers for this stereotyping of our ethnic community**

33. South Carolina’s 5th (Midlands)–John Spratt is more of an institution than an elected official in this area, but he seems to have lost a step on the campaign trail, and being Budget Chairman in 2010 is not going to help him. Mick Mulvaney seems to know what he’s doing here, and this once-unthinkable upset is looking more and more possible. (PR: 35)

34. Pennsylvania’s 3rd (Northwest)–The fundamentals of this race remain the same. Kathy Dahlkemper is vulnerable, and Mike Kelly is non-controversial enough to win. Whether those facts will translate into votes for Kelly on Election Day is unknown, so for now this one stays right where it was. It’s amazing how much better Democrats would be doing if everyone had taken a position on HCR and stuck by it. (PR: 34)

35. Michigan’s 7th (South)–The GOP bungled the primary and nominated retread Tim Walberg, giving second life to freshman Mark Schauer. But Schauer only defeated Walberg by 2 points last time, and this is a bad year for Democrats in Michigan, so he’s not out of the woods yet. It should be noted that the Green Party isn’t running a candidate this year; the Green took 3% in ’08. (PR: 29)

36. New Mexico’s 2nd (South)–Few incumbents appeared as endangered as Harry Teague over the summer, but then again, few incumbents have seen as many good polls over the past month as Teague. In retrospect, the GOP could have done better than Steve Pearce here, but Teague’s vote for cap-and-trade may yet do him in. This should be a good fight. (PR: 12)

37. Arizona’s 5th (Scottsdale)–Harry Mitchell faces off against David Schweikert again after decisively winning Round 1. A Republican pollster has Mitchell down 7, which probably means this race is a tossup, which means this is a good place for it. (PR: 30)

38. Wisconsin’s 8th (Northeast)–This was the majority-maker last time, but GOP fortunes in Wisconsin have improved greatly since then. Ron Johnson should win this district even if he loses to Feingold, and Reid Ribble looks like a solid challenger to sophomore Steve Kagan, who seems like a pretty generic, party-line type. (PR: 43)

39. Nevada’s 3rd (Las Vegas suburbs)–Dina Titus is another incumbent who has posted leads in independent polling since last time around, and Harry Reid has also improved his standing. This remains a winnable race for Joe Heck, but he’s going to have to contend with what looks to be a strong Democratic GOTV operation in this area. Both sides really need this one, and it’ll be a fight to the end. (PR: 26)

There’s your 39th pickup, but of course, even the most ardent Republicans are conceding that Democrats will pick up a few seats of their own, and some Democrats think they could take as many as 10 Republican seats this cycle. For now, I’m going to limit Democratic pickups to:

Delaware, which can say hello to Rep. John Carney (order the business card!)

Hawaii’s 1st, which even Colleen Hanabusa (the Dino Rossi of the South Pacific) should manage to win

Louisiana’s 2nd, where I think Joe Cao will lose, but by less than expected

Illinois’ 10th, which is far from a done deal, but where Dan Seals is the better match for the district

That’s four right there, with several others also in play. However, if the Republicans are going to win the House, they have to hold all of those, so let’s only add four more pickups to their side.

40. Indiana’s 9th (South)–Baron Hill has drawn a cocky, young, and surprisingly not-Mike-Sodrel challenger in Todd Young, who has led in the only released poll of the race (an internal) but doesn’t seem to fit with the district for some reason. However, Hill touted a tie in the generic ballot as good news for his campaign in a recent letter to supporters, which shouldn’t instill confidence in anyone. (PR: NR)

41. West Virginia’s 1st (North)–Steady polling leads for Mike Oliverio here, but we haven’t seen a poll of this one since the Raese surge in the Senate race, and I’ll bet it’s a much closer race now. This is the most Republican district in West Virginia, so if Raese runs close to Manchin, you can expect him to win here and drag David McKinley across the finish line. Also, there have been rumors that Oliverio would change parties if elected, perhaps even before he’s sworn in, so that would count as a pickup as well. (PR: 37)

42. Alabama’s 2nd (Southeast)– Yes, Bobby Bright has become popular here and aside from voting for Pelosi has given his constituents no reason to fire him. Yes, this is 2010 in Alabama, Bright barely won last time, and the GOP nominee is credible. I’ve heard both sides of the argument several times, and since anything to do with this race incites passion, I’ll be noncontroversial and won’t move it. (PR: 42)

And, the district that swings the nation is…..

43. Texas’ 17th (Central)–The majority-making seat was a tough call, but it’s become harder and harder to see how Chet Edwards survives if the GOP does indeed take the House this fall. Bill Flores has proven to be the strongest opponent Edwards has ever faced, and the incumbent looks vulnerable in his ads, where he’s having a hard time landing punches on his challenger. This was the one seat that the DeLay-mander did not deliver for Republicans, and Flores seems like the right guy to both win this seat and cast the 218th vote on January 3rd. (PR: NR)

Majority Padders (Democratic seats that would not be among the first 43 to flip, but are endangered nonetheless): MA-10, CT-05, NY-01, NY-23, PA-10, PA-12, NJ-03, VA-11, NC-08, GA-02, GA-08, FL-22, TN-04, OH-13, OH-18, MI-09, IL-17, IA-03, IN-02, SD-AL, MO-04, TX-23, NM-01, CO-03, AZ-01, WA-02, OR-05, CA-11

Other Democratic Targets: CA-03, CA-45, KS-04, FL-12, FL-25, MN-06, PA-06, PA-15

If you think Democrats will pick up 6 seats instead of 4–which is not a stretch at all–add AZ-01 and NC-08 as the 44th and 45th pickups. Go ahead and draw the cutoff line wherever you like, and feel free to argue that races should be moved up, down, off of, or onto the list!