Author: MassGOP

It’s officially redistricting season, and I wanted to take a look at how the 435-member cap that the House of Representatives imposed on itself in 1911 affects overall membership. Most districts in the USA have a population between 625,000 and 675,000, as a result of apportionment of districts between states. Yet apportionment–and therefore, district population–cannot be fully equal so long as the current rules stand, because the Constitution mandates that each state have at least one district of its own. That means that Wyoming, the smallest state, gets WY-AL, which has an estimated population of 544,000–that is, about 100,000 fewer people than the average CD.

In response to this inequality–a vote for Congress in Wyoming means comparatively more than a vote for Congress in other states–some folks have proposed a “Wyoming Rule” that would toss out the cap and make district sizes equal to the population of the smallest state. That is, each district would have 544,000 people.

I decided to test out the “Wyoming Rule” on the state where it would have the greatest effect: California, which would gain 16 new districts as a result of the overall reduction in district size. Below is one way that California could be drawn with 69 districts. I did a little bit of everything here: gerrymandered to protect incumbent parties (not incumbents themselves), tried to create as many VRA districts as possible, and sought to keep counties intact in the cases where partisan or racial numbers wouldn’t be affected.  

Northern California:

CA-01 (blue): OPEN, 77% White, D+15, Obama 67%

–This North Coast district pulls fully out of the Bay Area. I would expect Mike Thompson to move north and run.

CA-02 (green): Wally Herger (R), 80% White, R+10 McCain 55%

–Not much has changed from Herger’s current district. The loss of the southernmost portion of the district has shifted the PVI slightly to the left.

CA-03 (purple): Tom McClintock (R), 81% White, R+9, McCain 54%

–The only district to border both Oregon and Nevada, the 3rd contains some of the most conservative areas of California offset somewhat by liberal towns in the Sierra Nevada. McClintock is safe in this exurban/rural hybrid.

CA-04 (red): Dan Lungren (R), 70% White, R+8, McCain 52%.

–Lungren’s new district pulls out of the Sierra Nevada and now includes Sutter County and part of Yolo. The base remains in the northern Sacramento suburbs, and the district has flipped from Obama to McCain.

Sacramento and the North Bay:

CA-05 (yellow): Doris Matsui (D), 42% White, 22% Hispanic, 16% Asian, D+19, Obama 72%

–Almost entirely co-terminous with the City of Sacramento. This is the first of many, many majority-minority districts on the map and is safe for Matsui.

CA-06 (teal green): John Garamendi (D), 65% White, D+1, Obama 55%.

–The eastern and souther suburbs of Sacramento County give us our first tossup, which is slightly D-leaning but appears to have voted for Bush in 2004. Most of this is currently Lungren’s territory, and he could probably win here, but he would prefer to run in my 4th. Garamendi, on the other hand, does live here, but might choose to run in the 13th.

CA-07 (grey): Lynn Woolsey vs. Mike Thompson (D), 68% White, D+17, Obama 71%.

–This is basically Wine Country plus some western suburbs of Sacramento. Thompson’s inconvenient choice of residence puts him here along with Woolsey, who is from the population base in Sonoma County. As I said above, Thompson would probably run in CA-01 to the north.

CA-08 (lilac): Nancy Pelosi (D), 65% White, D+36, Obama 80%.

–The new 8th crosses the Golden Gate Bridge from Marin County into the wealthy and cosmopolitan northern neighborhoods of San Francisco, including the outgoing Speaker’s Pacific Heights. Pelosi should have no problem appealing to liberal Marin, although there is another San Francisco district that she could choose to run in if she’d rather not cross the bay.

CA-13 (peach): OPEN, 47% White, 17% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 15% Black. D+14, Obama 68%.

–Solano County with a sliver of Contra Costa to make the population match. John Garamendi represents much of this now but lives just to the east in southern Sacramento County. He may well choose to run here rather than in the tossupy 6th.

Bay Area

CA-09 (cyan): Barbara Lee (D), 37% Black, 21% Hispanic, 20% White, 17% Asian. D+36, Obama 89%.

–Now this is where the Wyoming Rule gets fun! Smaller districts allow you to draw VRA districts where you previously could not, because the population thresholds are lower. For example, this district is a new plurality-black district in the Bay Area. It combines Oakland in Alameda County with Richmond in Contra Costa and a small portion of heavily-black southeastern San Francisco. CBC chairwoman Barbara Lee will love it.

CA-10 (magenta): OPEN, 52% Hispanic, 21% Asian. D+28, Obama 81%.

–Here’s a new, heavily gerrymandered Hispanic-majority district in the West Bay. The 10th is a thin strip that hugs the bay coast, connecting parts of San Francisco with Hispanic neighborhoods in San Jose, along with certain Hispanic pockets in Daly City and Palo Alto. I’m pretty sure this would be a wide-open Democratic primary, probably favoring a Hispanic from San Jose.

CA-11 (lighter green): OPEN, 43% White, 34% Asian. D+29, Obama 82%.

–Southern San Francisco and northern San Mateo combine to form another ultra-blue open seat (assuming Pelosi runs in the 8th.) It is very telling that despite three VRA seats in the Bay Area, this “leftovers” district is still majority-minority. Much of the SF city council would be interested in the primary here, and an LGBT representative would make sense given the area.

CA-12 (periwinkle): Mike Honda (D), 50% Asian, 25% White, 17% Hispanic. D+15, Obama 70%.

–More VRA fun, as we can now draw an Asian-majority district in the Bay. Anchored in eastern San Jose, the district picks up heavily Asian precincts in Fremont and Union City (Alameda County) before jumping across the Bay into southern San Francisco. I don’t know if Mike Honda lives within the lines, but I obviously drew this with him in mind.

CA-14 (brown/green): Jackie Speier (D), 68% White. D+18, Obama 73%.

–Speier sheds her part of San Francisco (and a few PVI points in the process) and now has a San-Mateo centered district with a small part of Santa Clara. This is the heart of Silicon Valley and home to Stanford.

CA-15 (orange): Anna Eshoo (D), 53% White, 28% Asian. D+15, Obama 70%.

–This is intended to be Eshoo’s district, although she will have to move slightly south if she wants to live in it (why, Cali Dems, must you live so close to each other?) Essentially, these are the northern and western suburbs of San Jose plus a portion of the city itself.

CA-16 (bright green): Zoe Lofgren (D), 59% White, 21% Hispanic. D+13, Obama 67%

–Lofgren gets the San Jose leftovers, plus southern Santa Clara and a largely unpopulated part of Santa Cruz. Here district is a few points less Democratic than before but nowhere near the point where she needs to be worried.

CA-17 (deep purple): Pete Stark (D), 37% White, 28% Hispanic, 20% Asian. D+20, Obama 75%

–Yet another super-Democratic stronghold, this time in Alameda County. Stark is safe in this district that is majority-minority by accident (that is, this is what was left over after drawing 3 VRA districts, and it’s still less than 40% White.)

CA-18 (yellow): Jerry McNerney (D), 73% White. D+18, Obama 73%

–Jerry McNerney is rewarded for holding down a tough district in 2010 with the greatest gift you can give a Democrat: Berkeley. Also takes in McNerney’s home base of eastern Alameda and a slice of Contra Costa.

CA-19 (olive): George Miller (D), 61% White, D+13, Obama 67%

–No, I didn’t forget about Miller…..I just dropped his district number from 7 to 19. He is plenty safe in this surprisingly small district in northern Contra Costa County. This area looks like a wonderful place to live, by the way.

Central California

CA-20 (pink): OPEN, 65% White, R+6, McCain 52%

–This is a more Republican version of the current CA-11, covering much of San Joaquin, southern Contra Costa, and part of unincorperated Sacramento. David Harmer would run here if he ends up being declared the winner after the recount in CA-11, and he might anyway even in he loses. It’s not a certain win, especially with Obama on the ballot, but the Republicans would be favored here.

CA-21 (maroon): OPEN, 40% Hispanic, 37% White. D+8, Obama 62%

–A Hispanic plurality district including Stockton and western Stanislaus County. Dennis Cardoza does not live here but may run. Republicans won’t compete here until they learn how to better appeal to Hispanics.

CA-22 (brown): OPEN, 78% White, R+10, McCain 54%

–This district is centered in Modesto and runs to the northeast, picking up several conservative counties in the Sierra Nevada. No incumbent lives here, but a Republican would almost certainly win here.

CA-23 (aqua blue): Jeff Denham (R), 64% White, 22% Hispanic, R+10, McCain 54%

–Almost identical to its northern neighbor, the 23rd is based in Fresno and includes the rural, beautiful Yosemite Valley. Newly-elected Rep. Denham will cruise here.

CA-24 (purple): Jim Costa (D), Dennis Cardoza (D), 59% Hispanic, D+9, Obama 63%

–The trouble with the Wyoming Rule is that VRA districts don’t have to be as stretchy as they normally do. With four plurality-Hispanic districts in the Central Valley now, Costa and Cardoza are unfortunately both stuck in this one. Most of the population comes from Fresno, which would favor Costa.

CA-25 (salmon): Sam Farr (D), 52% White, 35% Hispanic, D+19, Obama 74%

–We jump back to the coast now and find a safe seat for Farr around the Monterey Bay. Surprisingly, the district is over a third Hispanic.

CA-26 (darker grey): OPEN, 58% White, 32% Hispanic, R+1, Obama 53%

–Every good map has at least one pure tossup, and this Central Coast seat is as evenly divided as they come. Democratic Monterey, slightly Democratic San Benito, heavily Republican Kings, and swingy San Luis Obispo combined to vote right at the national average in 2008, although this district voted more Republican than the nation in 2000 and 2004. California is trending Democratic, but Republicans hold most seats like this one for now. I’m sure that both sides would put up strong candidates for this one year in and year out.

CA-27 (electric green): Devin Nunes (R), 45% Hispanic, 43% White, R+9, McCain 53%

–Returning to the Central Valley, we find Nunes losing a few points off his PVI but still looking good in a Hispanic-plurality district south of Fresno. Low Hispanic participation and very conservative white voters keep this district in the Republican column.

CA-28 (pinkish purple): Kevin McCarthy (R), 65% White, R+19, McCain 65%

–By far the most Republican district in California, the dark-red 28th is based in Bakersfield (Kern County) and runs all the way to the Nevada border, picking up mountain and desert areas as well as the leftovers of Tulare County. McCarthy is safe for a long, long time.

CA-29 (earthy green): OPEN, 56% Hispanic, R+4, Obama 50%

–We round out our tour of the Central Valley with another swing seat that leans slightly Republican despite its status as a VRA Hispanic-majority seat. Many of the Hispanics are non-citizens who work the fields of this agricultural region, and the white voters in Bakersfield give the GOP the slight edge here. This would be an intriguing open-seat race in 2012.

West of Los Angeles

CA-30 (peach): Lois Capps (D), 46% White, 44% Hispanic, D+15, Obama 69%

–The sweetheart gerrymander lives on! Capps gets to keep her coastal Democratic district, but the Wyoming rule allows this district to shrink to just Santa Barbara and Oxnard.

CA-31 (pale yellow): Elton Gallegly (R), 63% White, R+5, 50% McCain

–Gallegly will always be Capps’ (electoral) sweetheart, and can thank her because he basically gets to keep the district he has now. Inland Santa Barbara and Ventura lean slightly Republican, and that should be good enough to keep the sun from going down on Elton, unless the Democrats get serious about recruiting in districts like these.

CA-33 (royal blue): Henry Waxman (D), 74% White, D+6, Obama 60%

–We’ve arrived! The first of many districts to take in part of Los Angeles, the 33rd starts in Thousand Oaks in Ventura, grabs Malibu, and ends up in the mostly residential far western reaches of LA. Waxman’s PVI is not nearly as robust as his old one, but he should hold on just fine.

Los Angeles County

I’ve labeled the districts on the map so you can tell which one is which (they’re all kind of small, and they don’t quite go in numerical order because I wanted to keep similar colors away from each other.)

CA-32 (red-orange): Buck McKeown (R), 57% White, R+6, McCain 49%

–This includes the entire northern half of the county, including the part cropped out of the image (more or less everything north of the San Gabriel Mountains.) McKeown drops the sprawling desert portion of the district but surprisingly, his partisan numbers actually improve. Who would’ve known?

CA-34 (Irish green): Howard Berman (D), 69% White, D+22, Obama 76%

–Bright lights! Big Stars! The place where dreams are realized! It’s Hollywood, and it belongs to Berman. This is the last white-majority district we’ll be seeing in quite some time. Swanky Beverly Hills is also in the 34th, so you can pick your favorite actor or actress to succeed Berman.

CA-35 (Laker purple): OPEN, 55% Hispanic, D+16, 70% Obama

–A new Hispanic-majority district in northwestern Los Angeles. Yes, Los Angeles is going to produce a LOT of Hispanic-majority districts.

CA-36 (yellow-orange): Brad Sherman (D), 58% Hispanic, D+20, 74% Obama

–Sherman’s district is now Hispanic-majority as well, which could make him vulnerable to a primary challenge. However, his current district is majority-minority, and he seems pretty well liked by the base. The 36th includes Burbank and the area north of downtown LA.

CA-37 (Dodger blue): Xavier Becerra (D), 65% Hispanic, D+26, Obama 80%

–One of the smallest and most densely populated districts in the country, the 37th is comprised of Downtown Los Angeles and is home to the Dodgers, Lakers, Clippers, and Kings. It has a Hispanic supermajority, and along with the 35th is one of two districts fully within the City of Los Angeles.

CA-38 (pale green): Lucille Roybal-Allard (D), 67% Hispanic, D+28, Obama 82%

–Who? Yeah, Lucille Roybal-Allard, who has actually been around for 18 years now but keeps a rather low profile, especially compared to some of the other Los Angeles Democrats. Anyway, LRA is safe in East LA, in a district so Hispanic it almost violates the VRA.

CA-39 (off-white): Karen Bass (D), 52% Black, 39% Hispanic, D+39, Obama 93%

–This Inglewood and LA district is distinctive for two reasons. First of all, it’s the most Democratic in California and probably one of the three most Democratic in the nation (along with the Harlem and Bronx districts in NYC.) Second of all, it is the only black-majority seat out of the 69, and it may no longer be possible to draw a black-majority seat except under the Wyoming Rule. California still has a significant black population, but most of the state’s African-Americans live in areas that are even more heavily populated by Hispanics. Bonus: this district is 3% white. Wow.

CA-40 (maroon): Jane Harman (D), 54% White, D+19, Obama 73%

–Stretching from Santa Monica to Redondo Beach, this district in south-central LA county is one of the few white-majority areas around. Nevertheless, it has a strong Democratic majority and Harman needs only worry about the primary.

CA-41 (white/grey): Dana Rohrabacher (R), 64% White, R+6, McCain 50%

–The token Republican district in LA County south of the San Gabriels, the 41st is similar to Dana’s current district, starting in Torrance and hugging the coast until it reaches dark-red Huntington Beach in Orange County.

CA-42 (lime green): Maxine Waters (D), 73% Hispanic, 24% Black, D+38, Obama 92%

–One of the most Hispanic and Democratic districts in the country, the new 42nd is made up of the troubled neighborhoods of Watts and Compton. Maxine Waters is the ethically-plagued incumbent, although I would expect her to get a strong Hispanic primary challenger.

CA-43 (bright magenta): Laura Richardson (D), 41% Hispanic, 25% White, 16% Black, D+ 19, Obama 73%

–Long Beach is another area in need of a cleaner Representative, but for now, Laura Richardson will represent this coalition district.

CA-44 (red-violet): Grace Napolitano (D), 68% Hispanic, D+10, Obama 64%

–We’re into the eastern suburbs of Los Angeles now, and Napolitano’s PVI has dropped a little bit (it was D+18). The congresswoman is safe, however, in the heavily Hispanic cities of Whittier, Montebello, Pico Rivera, and her hometown of Norwalk.

CA-45 (sky blue): OPEN, 42% Hispanic, 24% White, 16% Asian, 15% Black, D+15, Obama 69%

–The Port of Los Angeles is one of the most important shipping centers in America, and its next representative could conceivably be of any race in this wide-open coalition district. Carson is also included in this Democratic stronghold.

CA-46 (burnt orange): Judy Chu (D) vs Gary Miller (R), 51% Asian, D+2, Obama 56%

–The wishbone-shaped 46th, to the northeast of Los Angeles, is probably my favorite district on the map. It is Asian-majority, and surprisingly, a true swing district that George Bush narrowly carried and Barack Obama decisively won. Chu’s home city of Monterey Park, is at the tail end of the northern fork, Walnut and Diamond Bar in the Inland Empire make up the central core of the district, and Cerritos is the southernmost point. Chu is not safe here, but she makes sense for the time being. Miller lives in the eastern part of the district and could conceivably defeat Chu with a good campaign, but it would be a tough fight for him.

CA-47 (light lavender): Adam Schiff (D), 47% White, 27% Hispanic, 18% Asian, D+11, Obama 66%

–I moved back north of LA to draw the 47th in Pasadena and Glendale. These are fairly reliably Democratic suburbs, and they are combined with some leftover Hispanic precincts in LA itself to make this district safe for Schiff. Once again, this is a majority-minority seat.

CA-48 (tan): Linda Sanchez (D), 71% Hispanic, D+19, Obama 74%

–One final urban district in East LA, also with a Hispanic supermajority. Linda Sanchez lives just outside the district (her hometown of Lakewood is in Rohrabacher’s GOP-leaning 41st), but she represented a good chucnk of this area before and would fit in perfectly here.

CA-49 (terra cotta clay red): OPEN, 60% Hispanic, D+13 67% Obama

–A new Hispanic-majority district in the San Gabriel Valley, this looks somewhat like Hilda Solis’ old stomping grounds. The major centers of population are El Monte, Baldwin Park, and La Puente.

CA-51 (chocolate brown): OPEN, 56% Hispanic, D+11, Obama 65%

–Another new Hispanic-majority district in the San Gabriel Valley. This is the slightly-less Democratic northern twin of the 49th, anchored in Pomona, and is also an open seat. Hispanic Democrats would have plenty of primaries to choose from if this map were to be enacted.

Orange County

CA-50 (pale blue): David Drier (R), 58% White, R+7, 52% McCain

–No, this district isn’t anywhere near Orange County, but it has to be written up somewhere. The well-dressed Rules Chairman gets a better district for his electoral future in the northeastern corner of Los Angeles County and rural western San Bernardino. Drier probably wishes this plan would be enacted, because his current district is vulnerable to being ripped apart.

CA-52 (forest green): OPEN, 43% White, 27% Hispanic, 25% Asian, R+6, 51% McCain

–If Democrats really think Orange County is trending their way, they’ll have to prove it by winning districts like this one, which runs from Cypress through Garden Grove and Fountain Valley and ends up in Huntington Beach. This would start out as Lean R in a neutral year, and you could see a Vietnamese Republican run against a Hispanic Democrat. One thing about California that has surprised me is that Republicans are competitive in many majority-minority districts.

CA-53 (almost white): Loretta Sanchez (D), 66% Hispanic, D+10, Obama 66%

–Sanchez’s district sees little change in racial figures but does get a healthy jump in PVI to protect the congresswoman against future challenges. It is based in Santa Ana with tendrils into Irvine and Anaheim.

CA-54 (light beige): Ed Royce (R), 49% White, 32% Hispanic, R+8, McCain 53%

–Don’t be deceived, this district is very Republican, with Obama’s exceptionally strong performance lowering the PVI somewhat. Anaheim, Yorba Linda (Nixon’s birthplace) and Royce’s home city of Fullerton are the key players. I believe Mickey Mouse is a constituent, although he and the rest of Disneyland may be in the 53rd as well. You may see Gary Miller make a run at this one instead of challenging Chu, but the primary geography would favor Royce.

CA-55 (darker purple/brown): John Campbell (R), 60% White, R+6, McCain 51%

–Cambell moves inland and in the process gets a McCain district instead of his slight Obama district. The giant suburbs of Orange and Irvine make up the vast majority of this one.

CA-56 (blue): OPEN, 78% white, R+9, McCain 54%

–The most Republican district in Orange County is an open seat that stretches from Newport Beach to San Clemente, and then inland to Santa Margarita.  Gary Miller represented a small portion of the 56th but would have to move about 50 miles to make a run. More likely, there would be a competitve primary that would favor a Laguna-area Republican.

CA-58 (purple): OPEN, 44% Hispanic, 40% White, D+2, Obama 57%

–I can’t figure out whether this new district may have just barely voted for Bush in ’04, but it certainly leans Democratic. The largest city in the district is Ontario; it also has Chino and part of Riverside. You would probably see a Hispanic Democrat and a white Republican face off here, favoring the Democrat in presidential years but a tossup in a good GOP year like 2010.

CA-60 (yellow): Ken Calvert (R), 53% White, 31% Hispanic, R+6, McCain 51%

–This is mostly a Riverside district but I’m covering it here because it crosses the Santa Ana Mountains to take in the easternmost part of the OC. Calvert, like many of his GOP colleagues, now has a district McCain won, in this case centered on his home city of Corona.

Inland Empire

CA-57 (green); Joe Baca (D), 60% Hispanic, D+16, Obama 70%

–A Hispanic-majority district in San Bernardino County, centered on the county’s namesake city. Baca is safe.

CA-59 (red): Jerry Lewis (R), 60% White, R+10, McCain 54%

–This massive district takes up most of San Bernardino County, but a lot of that is desert. The population comes from the city of San Bernardino and the suburb of Highland, and there are a few lonely Mojave outposts like Barstow in the mix too. Lewis actually lives just outside the district in my new 61st, but he’d be most comfortable here.

CA-61 (teal green): OPEN, 42% White, 35% Hispanic, 12% Black, D+2, Obama 56%

–This southern SB/northern Riverside district is trending Democratic and would probably favor a Democrat from Moreno Valley or Loma Linda in a presidential year. Certainly not an area the Republicans are ready to give up on though.

CA-62 (grey): OPEN, 66% White, R+8, McCain 53%

–This longtime GOP stronghold in central Riverside County has trended Democratic as well, but is still fairly safe territory for Republicans for the foreseeable future. Hemet and San Jacinto are the nucleus of the district.

CA-63 (lilac): Mary Bono Mack (R), 51% White, 41% Hispanic, R+6, McCain 51%

–Republicans will want Bono Mack to run here instead of the safer 62nd. Her home city of Palm Springs is split between the two districts, but it is the heart and soul of the 63rd and an outlier of the 62nd. Like Bono Mack’s current constituency, it runs all the way to the Arizona border and leans Republican in a normal cycle.

San Diego

CA-64 (cyan): Darrell Issa (R), 57% White, R+11, McCain 55%

–We’re almost there. This is the safest seat for the GOP in Southern California. The investigation king takes in some wealthy areas along the coast north of San Diego, along with the very conservative inland part of the county.

CA-65 (magenta): Brian Bilbray (R), 65% White, R+6, 50% McCain

–More wealthy towns north of San Diego that historically vote Republican. Obama ran strongly here, but Bilbray is probably safe for the next decade.

CA-66 (electric green): Susan Davis (D), 68% White, D+13, Obama 67%

–Davis gets the white liberals along the coast, centered in San Diego and running north to Encinitas and south to Imperial Beach and the Mexican border. The Pacific Fleet of the US Navy is headquartered in this district.

CA-67 (pale blue): Bob Filner (D), 56% Hispanic, D+14, Obama 68%

–Enough of that silly tail to Imperial County! Filner now has a compact, Hispanic-majority district made up of South San Diego and Chula Vista. The busiest border crossing station in the state is here, so immigration must be a hot topic among the constituents.

CA-68 (peach): OPEN, 65% White, R+1, Obama 53%

–One final open seat, and one final tossup. The fightin’ 68th is home to the majority of the City of San Diego and is comfortable voting for either party (although it was historically very Republican.) Expect a great fight here in 2012.

CA-69 (green/brown): Duncan Hunter (R), 43% White, 38% Hispanic, R+5, McCain 50%

–The final district in the state can be summed up in one word: leftovers. More accurately, these are the very Republican suburbs and exurbs of San Diego and the Democratic bastion of Imperial County, which doesn’t really fit anywhere in SoCal (it belongs with the Central Valley.) The San Diego County portion of the district is more populous, hence the Republican lean. And oh yeah, lots of the Mexican Border.

Current Map

34 Democrats, 19 Republicans

25 White majority, 9 Hispanic majority, 13 White plurality, 6 Hispanic plurality

0 Black plurality, 0 Asian plurality

Wyoming Rule Map

44 Democrats, 25 Republicans (giving 6, 26, 46, and 61 to the D’s, 29 and 68 to the R’s.)

35 White majority, 15 Hispanic majority, 2 Asian majority, 1 Black majority, 10 White plurality, 5 Hispanic plurality

So what did my incumbent-party-protection Wyoming Rule map create? Well, it did its job–the new delegation is expected to be made up of 64% Democrats, just like the old one! The most notable accomplishment was eliminating the “Obama Republican” districts; that is, the 8 districts located mainly in SoCal that voted for President Obama but sent a Republican to Congress. All eight of those Republicans now have a McCain district, with Buck McKeown having the most tenuous hold of any of them. Previously there had also been three “Bush Democrat” districts, whereas now there is one: Judy Chu’s CA-46, and only because I saw no other way to make that district majority-Asian. There are also six open seats that can be considered competitive for 2012.

My other goal was to create as many VRA districts as possible. Sure, I had to create 7 new white-majority districts, but that’s to be expected when you need to make 16 new districts overall. Hispanics are big winners with this map, as they gain five new VRA majority seats and also upgrade one of their plurality seats to a full majority. African-Americans now have a majority seat in Inglewood and a plurality seat in Oakland. Finally, the Wyoming Rule creates the first two Asian-majority districts outside Hawaii, one in the Bay Area and one in Greater LA.

This exercise has proven to me firsthand that California is a ticking time bomb for Republicans. The “average” Democratic district on my map gave about two thirds of the vote to President Obama–in other words, a very safe blue seat. On the other hand, the “average” Republican district gave about 54% of the vote to John McCain, rendering many of the red seats vulnerable if California continues its Democratic trend. If there’s any consolation for Republicans, the are competitive in a surprising number of majority-minority seats, which is uncommon outside of California. However, they will need to do much better with minority voters, particularly Hispanics, if they are to make any serious comeback in the state.

Thanks for making it all the way through. As always, I appreciate and enjoy your feedback.

I took a preliminary look at Senate leadership in the upcoming Congress yesterday. However, that’s the minor leagues compared to what’s going to happen in the backrooms of the House between now and January. In addition to a new majority, you have a Democratic leadership in transition, Republicans looking to move up, and a whole host of committee turnover created by term limits, retirements, and losses. Like before, I encourage you to suggest Congressmen and Congresswomen that you’d like to see in leadership, or think will be in leadership, for either party.

DEMOCRATS

The biggest story on the left side of the aisle is that leadership will have to contract–the loss of the majority means that the Democrats will have only a floor leader rather than a floor leader and Speaker like they had the past four years.

Minority Leader:There is neither a clear field nor a clear favorite here. All discussions, however, have to begin with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and whether she plans to serve in the minority or pack up and let the Democrats rebuild under a new face. You can’t fault her for making either choice, but I tend to think that she’ll step aside. If it’s not Pelosi, the default choice is Steny Hoyer, who did nothing wrong as Majority Leader but may not be the preferred choice of the progressive wing of the party. John Larsen or Jim Clyburn could conceivably challenge Hoyer from the left, or a younger up-and-comer like Debbie Wasserman Schultz could make a bid if the Democrats really want to turn the page on the past. I’m sure most of you have opinions on this, and I encourage you to discuss your preferred leader for the Dems.

Minority Whip: This position will be settled after the Democrats pick a floor leader, as it may be used as a negotiating tactic (giving Whip to a moderate, for example, in exchange for a progressive Speaker.) However, if incumbent Jim Clyburn wants the job, he’ll probably keep it. Deputy Whip John Lewis is also a natural successor to Clyburn should the incumbent step aside or pursue the Minority Leader role.

Caucus Chairman: Again, a potential bargaining chip, but also John Larsen’s if he wants it again. Larsen will be easier to dislodge than Clyburn, however, as Democrats will want to keep a CBC member in leadership. If Larsen moves up or steps aside, Xavier Becerra would be a strong candidate for this job.

Caucus Vice Chairman: At risk of sounding like a broken record, this is Becerra’s in case he decides to move up, or in case Dianne Feinstein retires and he chooses to focus on a Senate run. This job would be wide open in Becerra’s absence, and might be a good place for a younger Democrat to be brought into leadership.

DCCC Chair: The incumbent is Chris Van Hollen, whom many Democrats really like and see as a future party leader. However, the Democrats just lost 64 seats under Van Hollen’s watch, and while many of those losses were inevitable, he may get some blame for the wave being as large as it was. If the party decides to go in a different direction, you could see the ambitious Debbie Wasserman Schultz or Joe Crowley here, or perhaps Jared Polis, another young Democrat tapped as a future leader.

Elsewhere, George Miller and Rosa DeLauro look set to return as Steering and Policy Chairs, and Mike Capuano will still be Organization Chair. The party’s whip team is likely to be smaller this time to reflect the reduced size of the caucus, but John Lewis will be back as Senior Chief Deputy Whip unless he moves up to Minority Whip in which case Ed Pastor, who appears to be next among the whips in seniority, would succeed Lewis.

REPUBLICANS

Speaker of the House: John Boehner. It doesn’t look like he’ll get a Tea Party-backed challenger, but even if he did, he’d be a lock anyway.

Majority Leader: Eric Cantor. The future Speaker waits in the wings as Boehner’s top lieutenant.

Majority Whip: Kevin McCarthy, the current Chief Deputy Whip, looks set for a promotion. Pete Sessions had floated the idea of running for this position, and would have had strong support among the freshmen class, but it appears that he will stay at the NRCC, where he did excellent work in the last Congress.

Conference Chair: Now things get fun. Mike Pence is out, choosing to focus on his run for governor of Indiana. The first candidate to declare was Michele Bachmann, the Tea Party Queen, who would be highly polarizing and a likely drag on the Republican leadership. Jeb Hensarling of Texas is also running for the position, and he appears to be consolidating establishment support. Bachmann will have support from the Tea Party bloc, which included many of this year’s freshmen, but Hensarling is conservative enough that he should be OK.

Policy Committee Chair: It is unclear as to whether the wonky, uninspiring Thad McCotter will seek another term, but even if he does, this will be a competitive race. Tom Price, chair of the Republican Study Committee (the right-wing answer to the Progressive Caucus), is interested in running and would likely have the support of the RSC members, and Connie Mack is also testing the waters. Price is probably the favorite, as the freshmen elected this year look to be quite conservative.

The other Republican positions look to be settled: Cathy McMorris Rogers will remain as Conference Vice Chair, John Carter will return as Conference Secretary, and Pete Sessions, as indicated above, will serve a second term as NRCC Chair.

COMMITTEES

Now this is the fun part! All 22 committees will have a new chair and ranking member, as Republicans and Democrats will switch roles. Several chairmen have also retired or lost re-election, so there are chances for members to move up. Finally, John Boehner plans to enforce a strict term-limits rule: no Republican who has served as chair OR ranking member for six years (3 terms) may chair that committee again. This is different from the Senate, where years spent as RM do not count against term limits.

Agriculture: Chairman Frank Lucas, Ranking Member Collin Peterson. Tim Holden is currently Vice Chair; I don’t know if he has an agreement in place with Peterson to take over at some point.

Appropriations: Current RM Jerry Lewis and second-ranked Bill Young are both ineligible due to term limits, so Hal Rogers gets to be King of Pork for the next two years. Norm Dicks will take over for Dave Obey on the Democratic side.

Armed Services: Buck McKeon takes over the reins, while the top four Democrats on the committee all lost: Ike Skelton, John Spratt, Gene Taylor, and Solomon Ortiz. That leaves Silvestre Reyes with a decision: stay at Intelligence or move to Armed Services. If Reyes stays put, Adam Smith would jump from 7th to Ranking Member.

Budget: Paul Ryan will be chairman, and perhaps the most watched member of the House. This fosters many questions: Will he leave to run for Herb Kohl’s Senate seat? Will Democrats make him a top target? Will Scott Walker ensure that does not happen during redistricting? Also, I don’t know how Allyson Schwartz gained seniority on this committee so quickly (how did she leapfrog Marcy Kaptur?), but she’s the top Democrat now that John Spratt is out.

Education and Labor: John Kline of Minnesota is the surprise chairman here, while George Miller of California will be Ranking Member.

Energy and Commerce: Phew–Joe Barton is term limited and won’t be chairman. Ralph Hall, who ranks on Science and Technology, is next in line here but may either stay put or not chair a committee at all because, well, he’s about 150 years old. Fred Upton waits in the wings if Hall’s a no-go. Henry Waxman will return to the minority and have to wait at least two more years to try and pass his cap-and-trade bill again.

Finance: Spencer Bachus and Barney Frank. It won’t be dull!

Foreign Affairs: Cuban-born Ileana Ros-Lehtinen will be an intriguing chairwoman, while Howard Berman will be the RM.

Homeland Security: Time for some fun again. The top Republican, Peter King, is term limited and not happy about it. The next two Republicans in line–Lamar Smith and Dan Lungren–are the top dogs on Judiciary and Administration. Homeland Security is a very intriguing committee, but it does not appear to be as powerful as many of the others, so they may stay put. If that’s the case, it’s Chairman Mike Rogers (the Alabama one), and Ranking Member Bennie Thompson of neighboring Mississippi.

Judiciary: More of the unknown. Lamar Smith has first dibs at the chairmanship, and can choose either this or Homeland Security. If he’d rather fight terrorists than pick judges, Howard Coble is next in line, but fifth-ranked Bob Goodlatte is Vice Ranking Member. Does Goodlatte have some sort of arrangement with Coble and Elton Gallegy that he will become chairman if Smith leaves? Or will seniority win out? Oh yeah, John Conyers will be the Democratic leader, with Jerry Nadler in reserve if he steps aside due to age.

Natural Resources: Doc Hastings and Nick Rahall. Next.

Oversight and Government Reform: Well, I bet you know the answer to this one. Darrell Issa will indeed be chairman, and will make life hell for anyone and everyone he chooses to investigate. Ed Towns will shuffle over to the RM spot.

Rules: I bet you never saw this one coming. There are only four Republicans on this committee, and David Drier is term-limited, Lincoln Diaz-Balart is retired, and Pete Sessions may be too busy at the NRCC to chair this crucial committee as well. That seems to leave only……Virginia Foxx. Yes, that Virginia Foxx. Louise Slaughter, of the Slaughter Solution, will rank during at least two years of Foxx Trotting.

Science and Technology: This committee is in transition, perhaps on both sides. Chairman Bart Gordon has retired, giving Jerry Costello a chance to be Ranking Member. Ralph Hall can choose between this and Energy and Commerce, which may be more attractive to a Texan. If he leaves, there’s Global Warming-ranker Jim Sensenbrenner (who’s done a little bit of everything during his long tenure), who has two years of eligibility left–he chaired this for four years before moving to Oversight.  Dana Rohrabacher would be next if Sensey passes it up.

Small Business: Sam Graves gets the gavel for the first time, while Nydia Velazquez gives it up.

Standards of Official Conduct: Also known as Ethics, this committee will be led by Jo Bonner, with Zoe Lofgren as RM. Bonner will hold considerable sway over the futures of Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters, who will come to trial soon.

Transportation: Chairman Jim Oberstar narrowly lost his seat, and next-in-line Nick Rahall is unlikely to leave Natural Resources, so Peter DeFazio is likely to be the top Democrat. John Mica will chair.

Veterans’ Affairs: Vietnam vet Cliff Stearns is the top dog now, and Bob Filner ranks for the minority.

Ways and Means: Dave Camp gets the unenviable job of being the Republicans’ top tax-writer, while Sander Levin will continue to lead the Democrats unless Charles Rangel’s name is cleared during his ethics trial.

Intelligence: With Pete Hoekstra out of the way, it’s the Elton Gallegy show, while Democrat Silvestre Reyes can stay here or become the RM on Armed Services, making Alcee Hastings the top Democrat.

Global Warming: Jim Sensenbrenner again! He can go to SciTech if he likes, or stay here with cap-and-trade author Ed Markey. Candice Miller would be chairwoman if Sensey leaves, assuming John Boehner even keeps this committee, which was Nancy Pelosi’s idea. It may become a subcommittee of Energy, Natural Resources, or Science, any of which would make sense.

Whew! Thanks for reading, and have fun sharing your thoughts!

With all but a few races called, it’s a good time to take a look at how the leadership is going to take shape in the Senate and House. Yes, the Republicans will now be the majority in the House, but the leadership changes will be more complex than that, with committee chairs and ranking members leaving the House and party caucus leaders seeking to move up or move out. Here’s a first look at the internal politicking we can expect between now and January for the Senate, with the House version to come in a day or two.

I encourage you to comment on my projections and suggests what Senators you’d like to see in leadership–either now or in the future, after they build some seniority.

SENATE DEMOCRATS

The five main positions are:

Majority Leader: Harry Reid will almost certainly retain his post after his wider-than-expected win in Nevada. There has been some gossip on the internet that Chuck Schumer will make a run against Reid, but I doubt that. Ambitious as Schumer is, he also seems like a team player and won’t want to burn bridges with any fellow Democratic Senators.

Majority Whip and Conference Vice Chairman: Dick Durbin and Chuck Schumer. These two might have been quietly happy if Sharron Angle had defeated Reid, but it looks like they’ll hold their positions for another two years.

DSCC Chair: This seat is open because Bob Menendez is up for re-election in 2012, and he probably would have been challenged anyway after a disappointing tenure at the DSCC helm. Potential replacements such as Debbie Stabenow and Amy Klobuchar are out because they are up for re-election too. We could see Barbara Boxer try to move up, or this could be a chance to bring a new face into the leadership (one of the Udalls, perhaps?) Feel free to suggest someone in the comments!

Policy Committee Chair: Vacated by Byron Dorgan, this is the perfect spot for a wonkish, reasonably liberal Democrat who is not widely known but is looking to move up in leadership. Ron Wyden, Mark Udall, Sherrod Brown, Sheldon Whitehouse, and Mark Warner would all make sense, and I’m sure there are plenty of others who merit consideration.

The Democratic leadership also has several lower-ranking positions that may be in flux this year. Conference Secretary Patty Murray is likely to be back, as will Outreach Chair Jeff Bingaman and Steering Chair Debbie Stabenow. The aforementioned Boxer will retain her job as Chief Deputy Whip unless she decides to move up to something else, and Tom Carper and Bill Nelson should remain as Deputy Whips. However, there will be one Whip spot open, as Russ Feingold has been defeated. Finally, there will be a newRural Outreach Chair now that Blanche Lincoln is heading home, and Democrats have a slew of options here, ranging from fellow Arkansawyer Mark Pryor to stalwart Tim Johnson to a newer option like Jon Tester or Tom Udall.



SENATE REPUBLICANS

Actually, there is barely any action to discuss here. Mitch McConnell, Jon Kyl, Lamar Alexander, and John Barrasso should retain their positions as Minority Leader, Minority Whip, Conference Chairman, and Conference Vice Chair. John Thune may make a presidential run, but until then, he will be Policy Committee Chairman, and Republicans will probably invite John Cornyn to return as NRSC Chair unless he is worn out from this year or challenges one of the higher-ranking leaders. Bob Bennett will vacate the position of Counselor to the Minority Leader, but this appears to be a non-permanent position anyway. McConnell may use this vacancy to bring Lisa Murkowski back into the fold if she is indeed certified as the winner in Alaska, as she lost her leadership position to Barrasso when she decided to go ahead with her write-in bid. Jim Risch, Mike Crapo, and Mike Johanns are all Senators who could move up if one of these positions is open.

SENATE COMMITTEES

The Senate has 17 committees (plus a few special “select committees”), 10 of which should see no change in Chair or Ranking Minority Member. These are: Appropriations (Inouye/Cochran), Armed Services (Levin/McCain), Commerce (Rockefeller/Hutchison), Energy (Bingaman/Murkowski), Environment (Boxer/Inhofe), Finance (Baucus/Grassley), Foreign Relations (Kerry/Lugar), Homeland Security (Lieberman/Collins), Small Business (Landrieu/Snowe), and Veterans Affairs (Akaka/Burr.)

Agriculture: Another spot vacated by Blanche Lincoln. Tom Harkin is next in seniority, but he gave up the chairmanship here to take over HELP following the death of Ted Kennedy. Patrick Leahy, Kent Conrad, and Max Baucus all passed up the Agriculture gavel as well following Harkin’s departure, choosing to remain chairmen of their present committees. That means that fifth-ranked Debbie Stabenow of Michigan is likely to become the next chairwoman of Agriculture, which should aid her with her 2012 re-election bid. For the Republicans, Saxby Chambliss will remain as RM.

Banking: Chris Dodd has retired, opening up this chairmanship for the more moderate Tim Johnson of South Dakota. The ranking Republican is Richard Shelby.

Budget: All the fun is on the Republican side here, as Kent Conrad will remain chairman. After the retiring Judd Gregg, Chuck Grassley is the most senior GOPer, but he is almost certain to remain RM of the Finance Committee. Mike Enzi, RM of HELP, may jump to Budget, but that’s not likely either. The same goes for Jeff Sessions, who ranks on Judiciary. Skip the departing Jim Bunning, and the hot potato passes to Mike Crapo of Idaho, who is looking likely to make the surprising jump from #6 to Ranking Member.

HELP: That’s Senate-speak for Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, and this is only relevant if Tom Harkin grows nostalgic for Agriculture, or if Mike Enzi bolts for Budget. The next Senators in line are Barbara Milkulski and Lamar Alexander, and this would be the first opportunity for either.

Judiciary: Again, only relevant if Jeff Sessions wants Budget. Orrin Hatch is next but he doesn’t seem to want the position anymore (his seniority outranks Sessions’), and once again Chuck Grassley is unlikely to move (I can see why Iowa keeps this guy around….he’s everywhere!) Jon Kyl would be next, and then Lindsey Graham if the Minority Whip is otherwise occupied. Oh yeah, Chairman Pat Leahy isn’t going anywhere.

Rules and Administration: First things first: the chairman is Chuck Schumer. Now, ready for some fun? Bob Bennett is out, and (in order of seniority) Mitch McConnell is the floor leader, Thad Cochran is on Appropriations, Kay Bailey Hutchison is on Commerce, and Saxby Chambliss is on Agriculture. Next is Lamar Alexander, who would fit unless he takes over HELP, and after him is John Ensign, who seems to be a poor fit given his misconduct. That means that, under a perfect storm, Pat Roberts could rise from the most junior Republican to ranking member!

Indian Affairs: This is an oft-overlooked committee that is nonetheless very important to any Senator looking to win re-election in a Native-heavy state. With Byron Dorgan retiring, and Inouye, Akaka, Conrad, and Johnson unlikely to give up their chairmanships of Appropriations, Veterans Affairs, Budget, or Banking for a less powerful post, it looks like Maria Cantwell will be the new chairwoman. Jon Tester, who ranks just below Cantwell, has a much higher Native population in his home state, but I doubt he’ll be able to talk Cantwell out of the gavel.

House version to follow!

This is a post-primary version of a diary that I wrote almost 2 months ago, that detailed the most likely route Republicans would have to take to reclaim the House–in other words, if the GOP were to win the chamber by one seat, which districts would they have to flip? A lot has changed since late July–more forecasters are calling a takeover “likely,” but many Democratic incumbents have put out polling showing that they are in better shape than some had thought. In addition, some races that weren’t on many people’s radars are now hotly contested. So, six weeks before the election, here’s a suggested path to 39.

1. Tennessee’s 6th (Middle TN)–Rep. Diane Black. She’d best get used to the title, it could be hers for a long time. (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. New York’s 29th (South Tier)–Likewise, Corning Mayor Tom Reed can start thinking about how he wants to decorate his office, although he’ll be potentially vulnerable after redistricting. (PR: 4)

3. Louisiana’s 3rd (South)–The October 2nd runoff is the last primary race of interest, and the late date is annoying for likely winner Jeff Landry. But not too annoying. (PR: 2)

4. Arkansas’ 2nd (Central)–Smooth sailing for Tim Griffin. Arkansas looks like trouble for Democrats, both now and over the next decade. (PR: 3)

5. Kansas’s 3rd (KCK)–Stephene Moore is doing little to suggest that she’s going to hold this seat, and Democrats may have a better chance at breaking through in KS-04 (more on that matchup later) than hanging on here. Kevin Yoder is a good match for this area. (PR: 7)

6. Ohio’s 1st (Cincinnati)–The Buckeye State looks like it’s going to be fertile ground for Republicans this fall. Call me crazy, but the gubernatorial and Senate races could both end up 58/42 if Democrats don’t do something to get their voters to the polls. But either way, Driehaus is in a deep hole and is probably looking to 2012 and a chance for revenge with Obama coattails. (PR: 11)

7. Indiana’s 8th (Southwest)–The famed Bloody 8th never stays with one party for too long, and although Brad Ellsworth had a strong hold on this district, it looks like it’s ripe to change hands again. Larry Bucshon would, I believe, be the only member of the House Cardiovascular Surgeon Caucus, if he defeats Trent Van Haaften. (PR: 8)

8. Virginia’ 5th (Southside)–Even this loyal Republican will admit that Tom Perriello is everything a Congressman should be: hardworking, principled, and honest. And if he lived one district south, in NC-13, he’d be assured of a long career. But this district is just too conservative for a progressive Democrat to hold this year, and all polling has Rob Hurt in the lead. (PR: 9)

9. Virginia’s 2nd (VA Beach)–Glenn Nye represents a district politically and demographically similar to Perriello’s, but is a more conservative Democrat. On the other hand, he has a much better challenger in Scott Rigell, who grabbed the lead here a while ago and has shown no signs of fading. (PR: 13)

10. Ohio’s 15th (Columbus)–Mary Jo Kilroy has been in trouble since the day she took office after a squeaker of a victory, and Steve Stivers has been running for almost 4 years now. In a neutral year, Stivers would probably be a slight underdog, but the environment and upticket races make him the favorite. Look for the Ohio GOP to pull its hair out over trying to protect him in redistricting. (PR: 14)

11. Maryland’s 1st (Eastern Shore)–Frank Kratovil’s internals show that he’s not out of this, but Andy Harris’ strong primary victory over credible opposition suggests that the GOP is more united this time. The 1st is 22 points more Republican than Maryland, meaning Ehrlich will romp here and Mikulski will lose if she’s held under 70 statewide. (PR: 6)

12. Mississippi’s 1st (North)–This race hasn’t really changed much. Travis Childers and Alan Nunnelee have recently each posted leads in internals. While not a particularly representative area of the rest of the country, it’s a great night for Democrats if they hold this one. (PR: 10)

13. North Dakota–The DCCC pulled out, which is as strong an indicator as any that Rick Berg is ahead of Earl Pomeroy here. This remains below the other seats because Pomeroy has survived tough cycles before and there’s time for him to pull an electoral rabbit out of the hat. Remember, 70% of people who vote in this election will do so just after voting for John Hoeven. (PR: 13)

14. New Hampshire’s 2nd (West)–A bit of a downgrade here, as Charlie Bass underwhelmed in his primary while Annie Kuster posted a strong showing. Nonetheless, Bass has led in every public poll, and Kuster’s fate probably hinges on late magic from Paul Hodes in the Senate race. (PR: 5)

15. Pennsylvania’s 7th (Western Philly Suburbs)–Pennsylvania may not be the bloodbath Ohio is, but the GOP looks poised to win several statewide races and House seats. Senate nominee Joe Sestak’s open seat remains the best opportunity, but…..

16. Pennsylvania’s 11th (East Central)–Not by much, as the 11th looks likely to flip as well. Paul Kanjorski can thank President Obama for extending his stay in Congress by 2 years, but it’s hard to see how he does it on his own this year. Lou Barletta may finally win despite himself. (PR: 17, 20)

17. Colorado’s 4th (East)–Steady as she goes for Cory Gardner, who continues to impress in his campaign to unseat Betsy Markey. (PR: 21)

18. Arkansas’ 1st (East)–This race, like the whole state, has really slipped away from Democrats recently. Chad Causey’s most recent internal has him up 2, but he’s trailed in all other polling and Rick Crawford has proven to be a worthy opponent, which may be all he needs this year. (PR: NR)

19. Illinois’ 11th (Exurban Chicago)–Likewise, things have gotten out of hand for Debbie Halvorson since late July. She appears to be trailing Iraq vet Adam Kinzinger in a district Brady and Kirk will both win on Election Day, and her campaign has not exactly caught fire like it did in 2008. (PR: 41)

20. Illinois’ 14th (North Central)–The race in the neighboring 11th has gotten much more of the attention, but this contest is strikingly similar. Super-freshman Bill Foster has never run in anything but a good environment for Democrats, has never had to deal with upticket problems, and has never faced an opponent as strong as Randy Hultgren. (PR: 19)

And, if Democrats can hold their losses right there, it will be cause for celebration from Martha’s Vineyard to San Francisco. But let’s keep going……

21. Washington’s 3rd (Southwest)–Jaime Herrera surprised many with her strong performance in the top two primary, and now must be considered a slight favorite to win this open seat. Denny Heck is a strong nominee as well and will keep this interesting. Polling has Herrera up but the race tightening. (PR: 36)

22. Michigan’s 1st (North and UP)–This race moves up slightly because the governor’s race looks safer for the GOP than it did last time. The Democrats have a strong nominee, but the Republicans did the right thing in nominating Dan Benishek, who is both a Yooper and an outsider. These are the kinds of open seats you can’t really lose if you want to take the House. (PR: 24)

23. Wisconsin’s 7th (Northwest)–Sean Duffy is a candidate who has over-performed to this point, as many considered this district safe for Democrats even without Dave Obey. But the former reality star has run a great show to this point, and the DCCC seems worried about Julie Lassa’s ability to keep up with him, hammering him with attacks that may or may not stick. (PR: NR)

24. Florida’s 24th (Space Coast)–Suzanne Kosmas has not done much to endear herself here, and changing her vote on HCR may be a fatal mistake. GOP nominee Sandy Adams is neither the strongest nor the weakest challenger I’ve ever seen, but she looks capable of getting to 50%+1. Democrats are hoping that Adams’ views will come off as “extreme,” but in the age of O’Donnell they’ll have to do a lot better than attacking her on the 17th Amendment. (PR: 25)

25. Ohio’s 16th (South of Cleveland)–Nothing has changed about this race since my last installment, but Ohio as a whole has become more hostile to Democrats, and Jim Renacci remains a very difficult opponent for freshman John Boccieri, whose path to victory is narrowing. (PR: 28)

26. Florida’s 2nd (Tallahassee)–Allen Boyd barely survived his primary and faces a fairly generic Republican in Steve Southerland. This one comes down to the Dixiecrats: do they stick with the Blue Dog, who flipped his vote on HCR, or do they go with the outsider, who’s looking to join Charlie Wilson in the House Mortician Caucus? Crist could save Boyd here. (PR: NR)

27. Tennessee’s 8th (West)–GOP nominee Steven Fincher won his primary convincingly and now faces a strong Democrat in Roy Herron. That this race has moved down has less to do with any developments here as it does to do with positive movement for the GOP in other districts. If Fincher wins, it will represent the end of an era in West Tennessee politics. (PR: 23)

28. New York’s 19th (Hudson Valley)–Dr. Nan Hayworth has been running a solid campaign under the radar for a while now, and the first poll of this race shows her slightly ahead of John Hall. Plenty of time for Hall to turn it around, but Hayworth’s cash advantage is not going to make things easy for him. Joe DioGuardi, who is doing surprising well in his longshot Senate race, is from this area. (PR: 32)

29. New York’s 24th (Central Upstate)–Mike Arcuri, who barely held on two years ago, apparently realized the importance of campaigning hard and early this time around, as he’s led in the last two polls of this race. But Richard Hanna still has room to define himself, especially in the rural areas of the district, and can use Arcuri’s HCR waffle to his advantage. (PR: 16)

30. New Hampshire’s 1st (East)–Carol Shea-Porter is still her quirky self, but she now knows her opponent: Frank Guinta, the former mayor of Manchester. That’s good news for her, as Guinta has less money and more baggage than some of his primary opponents. But he also carries a strong home base into the general, and the Granite State may be growing tired of CSP’s antics. (PR: 22)

Since the last installment, the playing field has changed to the point where anything under 30 seats picked up will be a disappointment for Republicans. The following 13 seats separate an “adequate” night from a very good one.

31. Florida’s 8th (Orlando)–I don’t know what to make of this race. Alan Grayson is essentially a louder form of Jerrold Nadler transported from Manhattan to a slightly Republican area of Central Florida. But he’s also a machine of a fundraiser and touts a poll that seems almost too good to be true. Daniel Webster emerged rather decisively from a crowded primary and has a long history in the district (good news for him), but has little money and has a Tea Party candidate to deal with (bad news.) In the end, this will be a battle of The Bold and The Bland, and the district could go either way in the upticket races. (PR: 15)

32. Pennsylvania’s 8th (Berks County)–Laddies and lassies, we’ve got a fine O’Tossup on our hands. Mister Murphy and Mister Fitzpatrick both be claimin’ they’re ahead, and they’ve each run some fine ads on the telly. I tell ye, it may come down to how well Mister Toomey does here. Pour yerself a pint o’ Guinness, political junkies–this one’s going to be fearful close! (PR: 38)

**Apologies to my fellow Irish SSP readers for this stereotyping of our ethnic community**

33. South Carolina’s 5th (Midlands)–John Spratt is more of an institution than an elected official in this area, but he seems to have lost a step on the campaign trail, and being Budget Chairman in 2010 is not going to help him. Mick Mulvaney seems to know what he’s doing here, and this once-unthinkable upset is looking more and more possible. (PR: 35)

34. Pennsylvania’s 3rd (Northwest)–The fundamentals of this race remain the same. Kathy Dahlkemper is vulnerable, and Mike Kelly is non-controversial enough to win. Whether those facts will translate into votes for Kelly on Election Day is unknown, so for now this one stays right where it was. It’s amazing how much better Democrats would be doing if everyone had taken a position on HCR and stuck by it. (PR: 34)

35. Michigan’s 7th (South)–The GOP bungled the primary and nominated retread Tim Walberg, giving second life to freshman Mark Schauer. But Schauer only defeated Walberg by 2 points last time, and this is a bad year for Democrats in Michigan, so he’s not out of the woods yet. It should be noted that the Green Party isn’t running a candidate this year; the Green took 3% in ’08. (PR: 29)

36. New Mexico’s 2nd (South)–Few incumbents appeared as endangered as Harry Teague over the summer, but then again, few incumbents have seen as many good polls over the past month as Teague. In retrospect, the GOP could have done better than Steve Pearce here, but Teague’s vote for cap-and-trade may yet do him in. This should be a good fight. (PR: 12)

37. Arizona’s 5th (Scottsdale)–Harry Mitchell faces off against David Schweikert again after decisively winning Round 1. A Republican pollster has Mitchell down 7, which probably means this race is a tossup, which means this is a good place for it. (PR: 30)

38. Wisconsin’s 8th (Northeast)–This was the majority-maker last time, but GOP fortunes in Wisconsin have improved greatly since then. Ron Johnson should win this district even if he loses to Feingold, and Reid Ribble looks like a solid challenger to sophomore Steve Kagan, who seems like a pretty generic, party-line type. (PR: 43)

39. Nevada’s 3rd (Las Vegas suburbs)–Dina Titus is another incumbent who has posted leads in independent polling since last time around, and Harry Reid has also improved his standing. This remains a winnable race for Joe Heck, but he’s going to have to contend with what looks to be a strong Democratic GOTV operation in this area. Both sides really need this one, and it’ll be a fight to the end. (PR: 26)

There’s your 39th pickup, but of course, even the most ardent Republicans are conceding that Democrats will pick up a few seats of their own, and some Democrats think they could take as many as 10 Republican seats this cycle. For now, I’m going to limit Democratic pickups to:

Delaware, which can say hello to Rep. John Carney (order the business card!)

Hawaii’s 1st, which even Colleen Hanabusa (the Dino Rossi of the South Pacific) should manage to win

Louisiana’s 2nd, where I think Joe Cao will lose, but by less than expected

Illinois’ 10th, which is far from a done deal, but where Dan Seals is the better match for the district

That’s four right there, with several others also in play. However, if the Republicans are going to win the House, they have to hold all of those, so let’s only add four more pickups to their side.

40. Indiana’s 9th (South)–Baron Hill has drawn a cocky, young, and surprisingly not-Mike-Sodrel challenger in Todd Young, who has led in the only released poll of the race (an internal) but doesn’t seem to fit with the district for some reason. However, Hill touted a tie in the generic ballot as good news for his campaign in a recent letter to supporters, which shouldn’t instill confidence in anyone. (PR: NR)

41. West Virginia’s 1st (North)–Steady polling leads for Mike Oliverio here, but we haven’t seen a poll of this one since the Raese surge in the Senate race, and I’ll bet it’s a much closer race now. This is the most Republican district in West Virginia, so if Raese runs close to Manchin, you can expect him to win here and drag David McKinley across the finish line. Also, there have been rumors that Oliverio would change parties if elected, perhaps even before he’s sworn in, so that would count as a pickup as well. (PR: 37)

42. Alabama’s 2nd (Southeast)– Yes, Bobby Bright has become popular here and aside from voting for Pelosi has given his constituents no reason to fire him. Yes, this is 2010 in Alabama, Bright barely won last time, and the GOP nominee is credible. I’ve heard both sides of the argument several times, and since anything to do with this race incites passion, I’ll be noncontroversial and won’t move it. (PR: 42)

And, the district that swings the nation is…..

43. Texas’ 17th (Central)–The majority-making seat was a tough call, but it’s become harder and harder to see how Chet Edwards survives if the GOP does indeed take the House this fall. Bill Flores has proven to be the strongest opponent Edwards has ever faced, and the incumbent looks vulnerable in his ads, where he’s having a hard time landing punches on his challenger. This was the one seat that the DeLay-mander did not deliver for Republicans, and Flores seems like the right guy to both win this seat and cast the 218th vote on January 3rd. (PR: NR)

Majority Padders (Democratic seats that would not be among the first 43 to flip, but are endangered nonetheless): MA-10, CT-05, NY-01, NY-23, PA-10, PA-12, NJ-03, VA-11, NC-08, GA-02, GA-08, FL-22, TN-04, OH-13, OH-18, MI-09, IL-17, IA-03, IN-02, SD-AL, MO-04, TX-23, NM-01, CO-03, AZ-01, WA-02, OR-05, CA-11

Other Democratic Targets: CA-03, CA-45, KS-04, FL-12, FL-25, MN-06, PA-06, PA-15

If you think Democrats will pick up 6 seats instead of 4–which is not a stretch at all–add AZ-01 and NC-08 as the 44th and 45th pickups. Go ahead and draw the cutoff line wherever you like, and feel free to argue that races should be moved up, down, off of, or onto the list!

There are currently 75 women serving in the House, an all-time high but still less than 18% of the chamber as a whole. A similar percentage (17 of 100) of Senators are women. The female percentages have gradually crept up over the past 50 years, but with the Republican lean of this cycle, I wondered if we would see the number of women in Congress actually decrease in 2010, given that women are more likely to be Democrats. The State of the Female Lawmaker, below the jump.

HOUSE INCUMBENT WOMEN

Safe Female (by seniority)

Marcy Kaptur, OH-09

Louise Slaughter, NY-28

Nancy Pelosi, CA-08

Nita Lowey, NY-18

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, FL-18

Rosa DeLauro, CT-03

Maxine Waters, CA-35

Corrine Brown, FL-03

Anna Eshoo, CA-14

Eddie Bernice Johnson, TX-30

Lucille Roybal-Allard, CA-34

Nydia Velazquez, NY-12

Lynn Woolsey, CA-06

Sheila Jackson Lee, TX-18

Zoe Lofgren, CA-16

Sue Myrick, NC-09

Jo Ann Emerson, MO-08

Diana DeGette, CO-01

Kay Granger, TX-12

Carolyn McCarthy, NY-04

Lois Capps, CA-23

Barbara Lee, CA-09

Tammy Badwin, WI-02

Shelley Berkley, NV-01

Judy Biggert, IL-13

Grace Napolitano, CA-38

Jan Schakowsky, IL-09

Shelley Moore Capito, WV-02

Jane Harman, CA-36

Susan Davis, CA-53

Betty McCollum, MN-05

Marsha Blackburn, TN-07

Candice Miller, MI-10

Linda Sanchez, CA-39

Melissa Bean, IL-08

Virginia Foxx, NC-05

Cathy McMorris Rodgers, WA-05

Gwen Moore, WI-04

Allyson Schwartz, PA-13

Debbie Wasserman Shultz, FL-20

Doris Matsui, CA-05

Jean Schmidt, OH-02

Kathy Castor, FL-11

Yvette Clarke, NY-11

Mazie Hirono, HI-02

Laura Richardson, CA-37

Jackie Spier, CA-12

Donna Edwards, MD-04

Marcia Fudge, OH-11

Lynn Jenkins, KS-02

Cynthia Lummis, WY-AL

Judy Chu, CA-32

Otherwise Safe Female

CA-33–The retiring Diane Watson will be replaced by Karen Bass.

FL-24–Rep. Suzanne Kosmas has a female challenger in GOPer Sandy Adams

MN-06–Likewise, Michele Bachmann’s challenger is a woman, Tarryl Clark

SD-AL–Ditto for Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Kristi Noem.

NY-14–Carolyn Maloney faces only a long-shot primary challenge, but it’s from a woman.

Likely/Leans Female Holds

Loretta Sanchez, CA-47

Mary Bono Mack, CA-45

Gabrielle Giffords, AZ-08

Betty Sutton, OH-13

Niki Tsongas, MA-05

Chellie Pingree, ME-01

Female Incumbents In Tossups/ Lean Male Takeover

Carol Shea-Porter, NH-01

Kathy Dahlkemper, PA-03

Debbie Halverson, IL-11

Mary Jo Kilroy, OH-15

Ann Kilpatrick, AZ-01

Betsy Markey, CO-04

Dina Titus, NV-03

Safe Male Takeover

Ginny Brown-Waite, FL-05

Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, MI-13

Mary Fallin, OK-05

HOUSE PICKUP OPPORTUNITIES

Safe Female Pickups

Terri Sewell, AL-07 (Artur Davis)

Diane Black, TN-06 (Bart Gordon)

Frederica Wilson, FL-17 (Kendrick Meek)

Lean/Likely Female Pickups

Jaime Herrera, WA-03 (vs. Denny Heck for the seat of Brian Baird)

Colleen Hanabusa, HI-01 (vs. Charles Djou)

Tossups

Vicky Hartzler, MO-04 (vs. Ike Skelton)

Martha Roby, AL-02 (vs. Bobby Bright)

Julie Lassa, WI-07 (vs. Sean Duffy for the seat of Dave Obey)

Jackie Walorski, IN-02 (vs. Joe Donnelly)

Nan Hayworth, NY-19 (vs. John Hall)

Lean/Likely Male Holds

Annie Kuster, NH-02 (vs. Charlie Bass for the seat of Paul Hodes)

Ann-Marie Buerkle, NY-25 (vs. Dan Maffei)

Lori Edwards, FL-12 (vs. Dennis Ross for the seat of Adam Putnam)

Beth Anne Rankin, AR-04 (vs. Mike Ross)

Joyce Elliott, AR-02 (vs. Tim Griffin for the seat of Vic Snyder)

Paula Brooks, OH-12 (vs. Pat Tibieri)

Mariannette Miller-Meeks, IA-02 (vs. Dave Loebsack)

Stephene Moore, KS-03 (vs. Kevin Yoder for the seat of her husband, Dennis Moore)

Suzan DelBene, WA-08 (vs. Dave Reichert)

SENATE INCUMBENT WOMEN

Safe Female Holds

Barbara Mikulski, MD

Kirsten Gillibrand, NY

Otherwise Safe Female Seats

Barbara Boxer, CA (vs. Carly Fiorina)

Leans Female Hold

Patty Murray, WA

Likely Male Takeover

Blanche Lincoln, AR

Lisa Murkowski, AK (Miller or McAdams, unless she wins as a write-in)

SENATE PICKUP OPPORTUNITIES

Leans Female Takeover

Kelly Ayotte, NH (vs. Paul Hodes for the seat of Judd Gregg)

Leans Male Hold

Sharron Angle, NV (vs. Harry Reid)

Robin Carnahan, MO (vs. Roy Blunt for the seat of Kit Bond)

Elaine Marshall, NC (vs. Richard Burr)

Linda McMahon, CT (vs. Richard Blumenthal for the seat of Chris Dodd)

Likely/Safe Male Hold

Christine O’Donnell, DE (vs. Mike Castle, then Chris Coons)

Roxanne Conlin, IA (vs. Chuck Grassley)

CONCLUSIONS

In the House, women will be lucky to break even. The certain losses of Kilpatrick, Watson, Brown-Waite, and Fallin will be made up for by the certain additions of Wilson, Bass, Black, and Sewell. However, there are 7 female incumbents in serious danger of losing to men and 6 more who cannot be considered safe at this point. The likely addition of Hanabusa, and somewhat likely addition of Herrera, will help somewhat, but if all or most of the endangered women lose it will be up to the likes of Lassa, Hayworth, et al to keep the number of women at 75.

In the Senate, the picture is similarly discouraging. There are two clear losses on the horizon, and only race in which women are favored to pick up a seat (NH, if Ayotte wins her primary.) If Republicans do even better than expected, it will help women in the Senate, as the additions of Angle and McMahon, plus Ayotte, would mean a net change of +1 woman.

Fun facts: Three of the four “Congresswidows” (women who succeeded their deceased husbands in the House) are from California (the fourth is from MO, home of the most recent Senate Widow,) and three women are running underdog Senate campaigns against men with the initials RB.  

Thirty-nine is an important number to consider heading into this fall’s elections–it’s the net number of House seats the GOP will have to gain in order to take control of the chamber. There’s been quite a bit of prognosticating and guesswork going on as to how many seats will change hands this fall, and I’m not seeking to add to those, but to predict which seats are most likely to change hands, sort of like what Chris Cillizza does with his Friday Lines. So, without further ado, one humble SSP user’s suggested “path to 39.”

1. Tennessee’s 6th (Middle TN)–Democrats have given up on holding Bart Gordon’s district, this Thursday’s primary will determine the next Rep.

2. Louisiana’s 3rd (South)–See above. Republican Hunt Downer is likely to represent this district for its final two years of existence.

3. Arkansas’ 2nd (Central)–Joyce Elliott is an intriguing woman who would be a good candidate in many parts of the country, but not in Arkansas, and certainly not this year.

4. New York’s 29th (South Tier)–Ah, the Empire State, home to the country’s most pathetically dysfunctional state GOP (sorry, Florida, you’re a close second), as well as several freshman and sophomore Democrats in swing districts. If the House is going to flip, Republicans are going to need 3 takeovers in New York, and not even the state party should be able to screw this open-seat race up.

5. New Hampshire’s 2nd (West)–Most people have this ranked much lower, but Charlie Bass is a great candidate for this cycle and district. He’s led in every public poll of the race, and his fundraising disadvantage won’t be particularly significant in this small-market district.

6. Maryland’s 1st (Eastern Shore)–If Frank Kratovil is keeping things close here on election night, it will be a great sign for Democrats nationwide.

7. Kansas’ 3rd (KCK)–Some people are high on Stephene Moore as a candidate, but I’m just not seeing it. Again, if Republicans can’t win here, they won’t be winning many places at all.

8. Indiana’s 8th (Southwest)–Brad Ellsworth would have held this seat with little difficulty, but as an open seat it represents one of the Republicans’ easier pickups. Indiana has tacked rightward since giving its electoral votes to President Obama in 2008.

9. Virginia’s 5th (Southside)–It took Robert Hurt a while to get his campaign off the ground, but polling now indicates that he’s consolidated conservative support. Perriello is a great fundraiser but the money alone may not be enough.

10. Mississippi’s 1st (North)–The GOP fielded the best candidate it could in Alan Nunnelee, but Travis Childers hasn’t really given his constituents any reason to fire him. Should he survive, he may be in for a career like his colleague Gene Taylor’s.

Now, if Democrats curb losses at 10, that’s a great night for the President’s Party. However, given the current environment, we’ll keep going.

11. Ohio’s 1st (Cincinnati)–Steve Chabot is back for revenge after losing this seat in 2008, in large part because of unprecedented levels of minority turnout. If Driehaus loses here, watch for him to try again in 2012 with Obama atop the ballot.

12. New Mexico’s 2nd (South)–The battle of the oilmen! With fundraising not likely to be a problem for either side, the environment and the reddish nature of this district should give Steve Pearce an edge.

13. Virginia’s 2nd (VA Beach area)–Glenn Nye has done a better job of voting his district than has Tom Perriello, but there seems to be enough anger in his district to make that point irrelevant. This may come down to how much of his own money Scott Rigell is willing to spend.

14. Ohio’s 15th (Columbus)–Steve Stivers came oh-so-close to winning this open seat in 2008, and is back for another shot at now-incumbent Mary Jo Kilroy, who has been a reliable liberal vote so far. If Kilroy survives, it probably means Strickland and Fisher are on their way to victory.

15. Florida’s 8th (Orlando)–Lightning rod Alan Grayson, the Michele Bachmann of the left, is just as good as the Tea Party Queen at raising big money from national donors. The difference? Bachmann’s district is R+7, Grayson’s is a tough R+2.

16. New York’s 24th (Central Upstate)–The second GOP target in New York is the seat of sophomore Michael Arcuri, who’s been an underwhelming Congressman to this point and again faces his 2008 challenger, quirky businessman Richard Hanna. The further away from this race the state party stays, the better Hanna’s chances will be this time.

17. Pennsylvania’s 7th (Philly Suburbs)–Like New York, Pennsylvania is chock-full of one- and two-term Democrats in swing districts, the result of the 2001 GOP “dummymander.” And like New York, the Republicans will need at least 3, and probably 4 seats out of the Keystone state to retake the House. The easiest pickup is Joe Sestak’s open seat, which despite its PVI is fertile Republican turf (see Nate Silver’s excellent article on “PPI” from this week for more details on this).

18. North Dakota (the whole state)–Earl Pomeroy is a political survivor, and Republicans haven’t even bothered seriously challenging him in almost a decade. But Rick Berg is Pomeroy’s toughest opponent since the 90’s, and John Hoeven will provide some good coattails atop the ticket. If Pomeroy wins this year, this will be his seat for life.

19. Illinois’ 14th (North Central)–Yet another large state with several freshman and sophomore Democrats in swing seats (broken record, I know). Illinois looks tougher than NY or PA for Republicans, but Bill Foster is an obvious target in the 14th. He’s won twice against a less-than-perfect opponent, and now faces St. Sen. Randy Hultgren in Dennis Hastert’s old district. Full Disclaimer: I’m dating a Hultgren volunteer, and she’s ordered me to keep this race in the top 20. Interpret this ranking as you will.

20. Pennsylvania’s 11th (East Central)–Another Keystone opportunity for Republicans, this time for the seat of the embattled Paul Kanjorski. Touted small-city mayor Lou Barletta has is back for a third run at this seat after a close loss in ’08, and his signature issue of immigration has been on the forefront of everyone’s minds this year. Is this the cycle Barletta breaks through?

21. Colorado’s 4th (East)–On paper, this looks like a fairly easy pickup, but the Colorado GOP’s self destruction in the gubernatorial race gives Betsey Markey a better shot at holding her seat after flipping her HCR vote. Still, Cory Gardner is a strong challenger who will keep this one interesting regardless of how the statewide elections go.

22. New Hampshire’s 1st (East)–Here’s the other, and more conservative, Granite State seat, held by the enigmatic Carol Shea-Porter. Once again, this is an easy target on paper–an incumbent elected on a now-unimportant single issue (getting out of Iraq) who is about two clicks to the left of her district and has never fundraised well. Yet Shea-Porter has won twice against the odds, and I’ll only believe she’s beatable if January rolls around and she’s out of office.

23. Tennessee’s 8th (West)–The second open seat in Tennessee will be a much tougher takeover than the first. Republicans have three strong candidates, but need someone to survive the primary intact in order to have a shot. Well-funded Democrat Roy Herron awaits the winner in this ancestrally Democratic district.

24. Michigan’s 1st (North and Upper Peninsula)– See “Tennessee’s 8th” above. Open seat, traditionally Democratic, GOP primary, good environment, good Democrat, gubernatorial race to drive turnout………let’s just call ’em both pure tossups for now. The PVI here is a little better for Dems though.

25. Florida’s 24th (Space Coast)–Suzanne Kosmas also got herself into trouble by vacillating on HCR and this time must face a Republican who is not Tom Feeney. Sandy Adams excited the base when she entered the race but has been an unimpressive fundraiser, and the other Republicans in the field all have their flaws as well. But, if the national mood persists, might “generic R” be good enough here?

At 25 seats gained, this is the dividing line between a “good” and “very good” night for the GOP. All seats below this point are uphill battles, yet still winnable.

26. Nevada’s 3rd (South Vegas Suburbs)–Dina Titus is a tough politician who will not go down without a fight, but it’s hard to envision a Republican controlled 112th Congress that doesn’t include Joe Heck.  This tossup may come down to how well the Reids are faring atop the ticket.

27. North Carolina’s 8th (South Central)–Democrat Larry Kissell narrowly lost his first bid for this seat in 2006, and then roared back to win it in 2008. The key difference? The 8th is 26% black, and Obama’s presence atop the ticket turned out the voters Kissell needed to put himself over the top. Can he validate that win this year against a rather generic Republican opponent? Stay tuned.

28. Ohio’s 16th (South of Cleveland)–This looks like a slugfest. Challenger Jim Rennacci has matched freshman Rep. John Boccieri dollar for dollar in the fundraising department each quarter so far in this slight McCain district. A pure tossup that will probably indicate the direction the other Ohio races are going in this year.

29. Michigan’s 7th (South)–Another freshman in a marginal district, Mark Schauer scored less than 50% last time and now faces a much more difficult environment. However, his saving grace may be that Republicans could nominate Tim Walberg to run for his old seat again instead of the more electable Brian Rooney. This will move up or down the list depending on who wins the primary.

30. Arizona’s 5th (Scottsdale area)–Harry Mitchell is a very lucky politician. First, he had the chance to knock out erratic Rep. JD Hayworth in 2006. Then, a brutal Republican primary seriously weakened his opponent in 2008 and Mitchell ran up a big margin. And now, with the national headwinds finally on their side, Republicans run the risk of beating themselves up again. If the primary is more civil this time, we’ll learn if Harry Mitchell is really lucky or just plain good.

31. New Mexico’s 1st (Albuquerque)–Never expected to see this on the road to retaking the House, but Jon Barela has been one of the most pleasant Republican surprises of the cycle. He’s running strong against freshman Martin Heinrich, who posted a big win here in ’08. There are other options for the GOP if Heinrich recovers before Election Day, but a loss here would make the math a lot harder for Democrats.

32. New York’s 19th (Hudson Valley)–I promised you 3 New York seats, and here’s the third and final. In the 19th, we find 70’s crooner John Hall seeking a third term against moderate Republican Dr. Nan Hayworth. The grandmotherly challenger has been a fundraising machine, and was one of the few non-Democratic beneficiaries of the NYGOP’s dysfunction, as her too-conservative primary challenger Greg Ball unexpectedly quit the race. Hall has a tough race on his hands, but will be helped out by Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand’s big margins atop the ticket.

33. South Dakota (the whole thing)–Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is another incumbent who has done nothing to deserve a pink slip, aside perhaps from voting Pelosi for speaker, and seems to fit South Dakota well. However, she faces a strong challenge from young State Rep. Kristi Noem, and could become a casualty if it’s a big national night for Republicans.

34. Pennsylvania’s 3rd (Northwest)–Freshman Kathy Dahlkemper outran Obama by 2 points as she ousted Rep. Phil English, and now faces the underfunded Mike Kelley. However, the district remains fundamentally Republican, and the GOP needs a few wins in Pennsylvania if their pickups are going to be in the mid-30’s or higher.

If 25 seats is a very good night, 35 seats is a national wave, and most waves are marked by the fall of an entrenched titan of the opposing party. If the Republicans get to that point in 2010, the fall guy is likely to be……..

35. South Carolina’s 5th (Midlands)– John Spratt, the stately Southern gentleman whose district has not elected a Republican since Reconstruction. Mick Mulvaney is seeking to break that streak, and his fundraising has been good enough to keep him in the race–which is all he needs to do at this point. If DeMint and Haley can fire up some grassroots anger and seats across the country are flipping, the Budget Chairman will be in trouble.

36. Washington’s 3rd (Southwest)–It’s hard to get a good read on Washington, and particularly on this open-seat race. On the one hand, the district voted for Bush twice and Republicans have an intriguing candidate in Jamie Herrera. On the other, the Democrats in the race are winning the fundraising war and the Pacific Northwest seems to slip further to the left every year. I only see this one flipping if the GOP is close to retaking the House. In fact, given that this is the Pacific time zone, this may be the race that everyone will be up watching on election night.

37. West Virginia’s 1st (North)-This one was much higher on the list until two very favorable bounces for the Democrats. First, they replaced scandal-plagued Alan Mollohan with the cleaner Mike Oliverio, who is just the type of ConservaDem that can win in this district. Then, the Senate special got moved to this year and Joe Manchin will be leading the ticket. However, Appalachia continues to move away from the Democrats and David McKinley is the best candidate the GOP has fielded here in a lo-o-ong time.

38. Pennsylvania’s 8th (NE Philly Suburbs)-The fourth and final Pennsylvania district on this list is an Irish O’Rematch of one of the closest races of the 2006 cycle. Incumbent Patrick Murphy, a rising Democratic star, again faces former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, who has fundraised well since his late entry into the race. Fitzpatrick came very close to holding this in a tough environment four years ago, and now must dismantle the goodwill Murphy has built up while in office.

Which brings us to (drum roll, please)……..

39. Florida’s 22nd (North of Miami)-There’s some big money being raised here. In fact, the $5 million combined that Rep. Ron Klein and challenger Alan West have amassed is probably the highest in the country for a competitive race without a lightning rod (Bachmann, Grayson.) This is an old, white, Jewish district gerrymandered to be a partisan battleground, and Klein beat West by 10 two years ago. A West win would be monumental for the GOP-not only he be a rare black Republican in Congress, he would also be the 218th vote, by my math, for Speaker Boehner.

But wait, there’s more!

As I’m sure you’ve realized, Democrats are looking to play some offense this year as well. And while they’ve won most of the marginal seats over the past two cycles, there are four obvious Democratic pickups on the horizons this year:

Illinois’ 10th, where Dan Seals should win on his third try

Delaware, although Michelle Rollins and her money will keep this interesting

Hawaii’s 1st, where Colleen Hanabusa gets Charles Djou to herself this time

Louisiana’s 2nd, where barring another miracle Joseph Cao will go down

Democrats are targeting about a dozen other seats, but since we’re envisioning an environment where the GOP is in position to take over the House, let’s assume their gains are limited to those four. Which would necessitate:

40. Iowa’s 3rd (Central)-Is this heaven? No, this is the 3rd, and the Field of Dreams is in the 1st. I originally had this higher, but user desmoinesdem has provided consistent good news for Leonard Boswell, and as our resident expert on Iowa politics, I’ll take his/her word here. Still, the road to a Republican majority probably has to run through Iowa, and Brad Zaun will have to find a way to eke one out over Boswell.

41. Illinois’ 11th (Exurban Chicago)-Debbie Halvorson, a strong recruit in ’08, ran up the score in this open swing district. Her first challenger is Iraq Vet Adam Kinzinger, who offers an intriguing, non-generic R, candidacy. If he’s to beat Halvorson, however, he’ll need strong performances from Brady and Kirk to drive Republican turnout here.

42. Alabama’s 2nd (Southeast)-Yep, I have Bobby Bright this low because the man can vote his district, and there’s a good chance that he hangs around even if the GOP takes over the house. But this race remains enticing if only because of the PVI and the fact that Bright barely won two years ago with Obama driving black turnout. The 2nd is unlike some other Southern districts in that it has elected Republicans since reconstruction, so challenger Martha Roby has a shot at knocking off the House’s most conservative Democrat.

And finally, that leaves……(second drum roll)

43. Wisconsin’s 8th (Northeast)-No one is talking about this swing district, where sophomore Steve Kagan has maintained a pretty low profile. Yet this race jumps out at me for a couple of reasons. First, Kagan ran about even with Obama, and has yet to run in anything but a favorable environment for his party. Second, Wisconsin is a good grassroots state, and Scott Walker and Ron Johnson will both be campaigning heavily here. Finally, Kagan’s principle challenger is an outsider with one of the best names in politics: Reid Ribble. It’s nothing overwhelming, but all the small factors are telling me that Green Bay Packer country could be the region that upon which control of the House pivots.

And there you have it. Forty-three possible Republican pickups, countered by four likely Democratic gains, leaves the House with a 218-217 Republican majority. Chet Edwards and Walt Minnick survive, and Dave Reichert becomes the swing vote under this scenario. I’ll leave it to you to draw the cutoff line in my list as to where you think the gains will stop (personally, I have it around 30), and will update as the races begin to take shape this fall.