Ohio Gerrymandered Both Ways

I spent the better part of the last 10 days diligently working on an exhaustive map of California (curse you, microscopic precincts of Contra Costa County!) using a method I don’t believe anyone on here has tried yet. And wouldn’t you know it, when I was just finishing up San Diego this morning, Safari decided it was going to quit and my entire map died with it. Too upset to go all the way back to CA-01 and start again, I decided I was going to post a diary today anyway, Safari-be-damned. So here are two maps of Ohio, one a Republican gerrymander and the other a Democratic gerrymander, that I drew a while ago but never got around to posting. Enjoy, let me know what you think, and I promise you I’ll get that California one up eventually!

Note before I begin: I’ve never been to Ohio, so I’m a bit of a rookie when it comes to the political niceties of the state. If I’m missing anything obvious, please let me know.

Ohio Republican Map: The “Four-Steve Plan”

Southwest Ohio and Cincinnati

OH-01 (Blue): Steve Driehaus (D) vs. Steve Chabot (R)

This district is drawn to help Chabot regain and hold his old seat in Congress. It’s still Cincy-based but gains a good portion of deep-red exurban Butler County from the current OH-08, and loses some of its inner-city portions. This configuration is probably R+1 or 2. Driehaus trails in the polls as it is, and this plan has a nasty surprise for him, as 15,000 of the black voters who swept him into office are now constituents of….

OH-02 (Green): Jean Schmidt (R)

This district, which only gave 40% of the vote to Obama, was hoarding Republican votes as it was but I didn’t want to hurt the notoriously weak Schmidt too much. Still, she’s capable of taking on the aforementioned 15,000 black votes, and also adds a little bit more of rural Southern Ohio.

OH-03 (Purple): Mike Turner (R)

Turner and Steve Austria inconveniently chose to live about 20 miles from each other, forcing the former’s district to stretch quite a bit and eat up some of Zack Space’s territory (his district is a casualty of this map.) Montgomery County (Dayton) voted for Obama and is the population center of this district, but OH-08 gets all the black precincts. Thus, Turner’s R+5 district is now R+9, with McCain getting 55%.

Columbus Area

OH-04 (Red): Jim Jordan (R)

Franklin County, home of Columbus, is fast-growing and trending more Democratic by the day. It gave 60% of its votes to Obama, but luckily for Republicans is an island of an ocean of conservative Ohio goodness. Thus, part of the city is sliced off and is attached Texas-style to the 60% McCain counties that border Indiana. No idea what the PVI is because I don’t know the precinct-level data for Franklin, but Jordan’s safe.

OH-07 (Grey): Steve Austria (R)

Austria takes in the sparsely populated and more moderate south of Franklin County, and holds onto most of his old district.  This is the swingiest of the four Columbus-area seats, but PVI-wise its probably not too different from Austria’s current 54% McCain seat.

OH-08 (Indigo?): John Boehner (R)

The Minority Leader currently has the most Republican seat in Ohio, and I doubt GOP map-drawers would disturb his seat too much. He gets 75% McCain Mercer County tacked onto the the northern end of his district in exchange for adding some more of downtown Dayton to help Turner.

OH-12 (Pale Blue): Pat Tibieri (R)

Tibieri is rewarded for holding down his Obama district against the 2006 and 2008 waves with a large swatch of conservative territory to the northeast of Columbus. His district contains less of Franklin than it used to, but now has most of the majority-minority precincts. The portion of the district outside of Franklin, which makes up about 3/5 of its population, voted 61% for McCain.

OH-15 (Orange): Steve Stivers (R)

This district is designed with Stivers in mind and is very similar to the neighboring 12th: a quarter of Franklin County attached seven exurban and rural counties that voted 3:2 for McCain. If Stivers came within a few hundered votes of winning a fairly strong Obama district in ’08, this one should be easy for him.

Note: I don’t know which of my districts Mary Jo Kilroy lives in, but she’d face an uphill fight in any of them. Also, while it is still possible to gerrymander Franklin County into 4 GOP seats, by 2020 it may be wiser to consolidate central Columbus into one safely Democratic district.

OH-06 (Teal): Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Zack Space (D) vs. Generic R

The new 6th, in the southeast of the state, is made up of the most conservative parts of the current 6th and 18th. Thus, Charlie Wilson and Zack Space are heading for a primary fight on a rather level playing field. The winner of this hard-fought contest will emerge to take on a Republican in a 56% McCain district with a lot of  territory unfamiliar to him. Not an impossible hold, but a tough one for Democrats in a region sliding away from them.

Northeast Ohio

OH-05 (Yellow): Bob Latta (R)

Latta’s district shifts westward and loses a point or two (down to  51-52% McCain.) He scoops up the rural, conservative leftovers of counties the voted for Obama but have given their liberal sections to Democratic districts. Also, the population center of this district is now in exurban Cleveland, which means Latta may face a primary from that area. I’ve never cared for him anyway.

OH-09 (Sky Blue): Marcy Kaptur (D)

Nothing new here, folks. The dean of the Ohio delegation keeps her base in Toledo and hugs Lake Erie like Lois Capps hugs the Pacific. Obama won 62%.

OH-10 (Pink): Dennis Kucinich (D)

High 50’s for Obama in western Cleveland and its suburbs. I decided to save Kucinich rather than pit him against one of the other northeastern Democrats because his “nay” votes from the left are nonetheless helpful for Republicans.

OH-11 (Lime): Marcia Fudge (D)

There are just enough African-Americans in Cleveland to keep a VRA majority-black seat in Ohio. Fudge’s percentages on the east side of the city are 51% black, 85% Obama.

OH-13 (Tan): Betty Sutton (D)

Sutton’s district is now dominated by her home county of Summit (Akron) but also takes in the college town of Kent and the west side of Canton. Obama scored in the high 50’s, much like in Sutton’s current district.

OH-14 (Taupe?): Steve LaTourette (R)

LaTourette is stuck in a tough place for a Republican. To the west is Cleveland, to the south Youngstown, and to the north Lake Erie. There is some conservative territory to the east, but it’s in Pennsylvania so that’s a no-go. He does have to expand somewhere, though, so I chose rural Trumbull and Portage counties, which are hopefully more conservative than the counties are as a whole, and the surprisingly Republican south and east of Cuyahoga County. This should be enough to nudge McCain over 50, a slight improvement over the current 14th.

OH-16 (Bright Green): Tim Ryan (D) vs. John Boccieri (D)

This is the Youngstown district, and Ryan should have no problem dispatching of Boccieri in the primary and whoever the GOP puts up in the general. East Canton as well as the liberal parts of Wilson’s district are thrown in for good measure. Boccieri could move and try to run against Latta, but it would be an uphill fight for him.

Summary: 3 Lean R (1, 6, 14), 3 Likely R (5, 7, 15), 5 Safe R, 5 Safe D

Ohio Democratic Map (the “Two-Steve Plan”)

Southwest Ohio

OH-01 (Blue): Steve Driehaus

Driehaus sheds the Butler County portion of his district and now has all of Cincinnati and its inner ring of suburbs. The black percentage ticks up to 25 and Obama probably was in the mid-to-high 50’s. Chabot might still have a chance this year, but Driehaus’ odds are far improved down the road.

OH-02 (Green): John Boehner (R) vs. Jean Schmidt (R)

It’s pretty easy for Democrats to eliminate the arch-conservative Schmidt by tossing her in with Boehner. This very red (McCain 60% +) district is made up of Cincinnati’s and Dayton’s exurbs and should be no trouble at all for the Minority Leader or any Republican who succeeds him.

OH-03 (Purple): Mike Turner (R)

The area between Toledo, Cincinnati, and Columbus is sort of a Bermuda triangle for Democrats, as you’ll be hard pressed to find anyplace that Obama broke 45%. The new 3rd combines the only county in this area that Obama won, Montgomery (Dayton) with marginal Clark County to create a 52/48 Obama district. Nevertheless, the PVI is R+1 and Turner will be favored. This seat becomes a tossup when he retires or runs for higher office.

OH-04 (Red): Jim Jordan (R)

This slice of rural Ohio goodness is about as clean-looking a Republican vote sink as you’ll ever see. McCain was in the 60’s here; a stronger Republican would flirt with 70% of the presidential vote. This might be the safest seat for the GOP in the Midwest.

OH-07 (Grey): Steve Austria (R)

Austria is one of the few Republicans who would prefer this map to my GOP gerrymander. He picks up most of Schmidt’s old district along the Kentucky border and retains his base southwest of Columbus.  With McCain in the high 50’s, Austria has this seat as long as he wants it.

OH-06 (Teal): Charlie Wilson (D)

Wilson’s district pushes ever so slightly north into the Democratic vote warehouse of Youngstown, taking about a quarter of the city. The rest of the district is made up of a selection of the least Republican counties of Southeast Ohio (a lot of 50/50 areas.) It’s not much, but the improvement does flip this slight McCain district into a slight Obama one. Wilson’s safe, but this is trouble for Democrats down the road.

Columbus Area

OH-08 (Indigo?): Zack Space (D)

Mr. Space, welcome to East Columbus! As the only endangered Democrat for hundreds of miles in any direction, Space is rewarded for his two wins in tough territory with a large chunk of Franklin County, attached by a thin strip to his home county of Tuscarawas. Who says ugly can’t be beautiful?

OH-12 (Pale Blue): Pat Tibieri (R)

Tibieri is a winner in both my maps, as once again he trades his part of Columbus for exurban and rural counties. This time, he gets almost all the red counties in Central Ohio, and is sitting comfortably in a 60% McCain district.

OH-15 (Orange): Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

Kilroy needs all the help she can get, so I gave her even more of Columbus than she has now. Then, I traded dark-red Madison and Union Counties for the more moderate Pickaway and Ross Counties to the south of the city. This move pushes Obama into the upper 50’s and should be enough for Kilroy to fend off the pesky Steve Stivers.

Northern Ohio

OH-05 (Yellow): OPEN

This new seat in north-central Ohio is designed with Democrats in mind, as Obama carried it with 54% of the vote. However, it’s not out of the reach of Republicans, especially not this year. Still, since this essentially replaces Latta’s district and we don’t want to spread the votes too thin in Northern Ohio, it’s acceptable. Latta could try his luck here but most of this territory is new to him.

OH-09 (Sky Blue): Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Bob Latta (R)

Sorry Bob, this one’s not gonna happen. Dominated by Lucas County (Toledo), the dean of the delegation should have no problem retaining her seat. Even with the Republican-voting northwest, the new 9th still gave 61% of the vote to Obama. Kaptur’s small sacrifice frees up the lake counties to the west for the new 5th.

OH-10 (Pink): Dennis Kucinich (D)

This district takes Wayne and Medina Counties, which voted for John McCain by a combined 15,000 votes, and neutralizes them with a large slice of western Cuyahoga County (Cleveland). Kucinich could theoretically be in trouble here, but the most likely scenario is that he runs into a strong suburban primary challenger who goes on to easily hold this one for the Democrats.

OH-11 (Lime): Marica Fudge (D)

Exactly the same in both gerrymanders. 51% black. Ho hum.

OH-13 (Tan): Betty Sutton (D)

Sutton has it about the same on both maps as well. Once again, she claims all of Summit County (Akron) and has enough Democratic votes there to allow her to swallow Republican precincts in southern Cuyahoga and Steve LaTourette’s home precint (more on him later.) 57% for Obama this time.

OH-14 (Taupe?): Tim Ryan (D)

Ryan keeps all of his home county, Trumbull, as well as the majority of the city of Youngstown. Those alone are enough to keep him safe, which allow him to grab Ashtabula and Lake Counties as well as parts of Geauga and Cuyahoga from LaTourette’s old district. Mix it all together and you get a 59% Obama seat.

OH-16 (Bright Green): John Boccieri (D)

The most junior Democrat in the region, fittingly, gets the leftovers district. Those leftovers consist of Stark (Canton) and Portage (Kent) Counties, which Obama carried, as well as Carroll and part of Geauga, which McCain carried. Throw in the rest of Cuyahoga and Mahoning, and you get a 53% Obama district, which although no sure thing is better than Boccieri’s old district.

Steve LaTourette, of course, is the odd man out. Where would he run? He lives in Sutton’s district, but the geography and the partisan numbers favor Betty Sue there. Most of his old district is in Ryan’s, but that configuration voted for Obama almost 3:2. Boccieri’s district is the most Republican-friendly, but he only represented about 8% of this area previously. Whatever option he chooses, it’s an uphill fight.

The Bottom Line: 4 Safe R, 1 Lean R (3), 3 Lean D (5, 6, 16), 2 Likely D (1, 15), 6 Safe D