Leadership in the 112th Senate

With all but a few races called, it’s a good time to take a look at how the leadership is going to take shape in the Senate and House. Yes, the Republicans will now be the majority in the House, but the leadership changes will be more complex than that, with committee chairs and ranking members leaving the House and party caucus leaders seeking to move up or move out. Here’s a first look at the internal politicking we can expect between now and January for the Senate, with the House version to come in a day or two.

I encourage you to comment on my projections and suggests what Senators you’d like to see in leadership–either now or in the future, after they build some seniority.

SENATE DEMOCRATS

The five main positions are:

Majority Leader: Harry Reid will almost certainly retain his post after his wider-than-expected win in Nevada. There has been some gossip on the internet that Chuck Schumer will make a run against Reid, but I doubt that. Ambitious as Schumer is, he also seems like a team player and won’t want to burn bridges with any fellow Democratic Senators.

Majority Whip and Conference Vice Chairman: Dick Durbin and Chuck Schumer. These two might have been quietly happy if Sharron Angle had defeated Reid, but it looks like they’ll hold their positions for another two years.

DSCC Chair: This seat is open because Bob Menendez is up for re-election in 2012, and he probably would have been challenged anyway after a disappointing tenure at the DSCC helm. Potential replacements such as Debbie Stabenow and Amy Klobuchar are out because they are up for re-election too. We could see Barbara Boxer try to move up, or this could be a chance to bring a new face into the leadership (one of the Udalls, perhaps?) Feel free to suggest someone in the comments!

Policy Committee Chair: Vacated by Byron Dorgan, this is the perfect spot for a wonkish, reasonably liberal Democrat who is not widely known but is looking to move up in leadership. Ron Wyden, Mark Udall, Sherrod Brown, Sheldon Whitehouse, and Mark Warner would all make sense, and I’m sure there are plenty of others who merit consideration.

The Democratic leadership also has several lower-ranking positions that may be in flux this year. Conference Secretary Patty Murray is likely to be back, as will Outreach Chair Jeff Bingaman and Steering Chair Debbie Stabenow. The aforementioned Boxer will retain her job as Chief Deputy Whip unless she decides to move up to something else, and Tom Carper and Bill Nelson should remain as Deputy Whips. However, there will be one Whip spot open, as Russ Feingold has been defeated. Finally, there will be a newRural Outreach Chair now that Blanche Lincoln is heading home, and Democrats have a slew of options here, ranging from fellow Arkansawyer Mark Pryor to stalwart Tim Johnson to a newer option like Jon Tester or Tom Udall.



SENATE REPUBLICANS

Actually, there is barely any action to discuss here. Mitch McConnell, Jon Kyl, Lamar Alexander, and John Barrasso should retain their positions as Minority Leader, Minority Whip, Conference Chairman, and Conference Vice Chair. John Thune may make a presidential run, but until then, he will be Policy Committee Chairman, and Republicans will probably invite John Cornyn to return as NRSC Chair unless he is worn out from this year or challenges one of the higher-ranking leaders. Bob Bennett will vacate the position of Counselor to the Minority Leader, but this appears to be a non-permanent position anyway. McConnell may use this vacancy to bring Lisa Murkowski back into the fold if she is indeed certified as the winner in Alaska, as she lost her leadership position to Barrasso when she decided to go ahead with her write-in bid. Jim Risch, Mike Crapo, and Mike Johanns are all Senators who could move up if one of these positions is open.

SENATE COMMITTEES

The Senate has 17 committees (plus a few special “select committees”), 10 of which should see no change in Chair or Ranking Minority Member. These are: Appropriations (Inouye/Cochran), Armed Services (Levin/McCain), Commerce (Rockefeller/Hutchison), Energy (Bingaman/Murkowski), Environment (Boxer/Inhofe), Finance (Baucus/Grassley), Foreign Relations (Kerry/Lugar), Homeland Security (Lieberman/Collins), Small Business (Landrieu/Snowe), and Veterans Affairs (Akaka/Burr.)

Agriculture: Another spot vacated by Blanche Lincoln. Tom Harkin is next in seniority, but he gave up the chairmanship here to take over HELP following the death of Ted Kennedy. Patrick Leahy, Kent Conrad, and Max Baucus all passed up the Agriculture gavel as well following Harkin’s departure, choosing to remain chairmen of their present committees. That means that fifth-ranked Debbie Stabenow of Michigan is likely to become the next chairwoman of Agriculture, which should aid her with her 2012 re-election bid. For the Republicans, Saxby Chambliss will remain as RM.

Banking: Chris Dodd has retired, opening up this chairmanship for the more moderate Tim Johnson of South Dakota. The ranking Republican is Richard Shelby.

Budget: All the fun is on the Republican side here, as Kent Conrad will remain chairman. After the retiring Judd Gregg, Chuck Grassley is the most senior GOPer, but he is almost certain to remain RM of the Finance Committee. Mike Enzi, RM of HELP, may jump to Budget, but that’s not likely either. The same goes for Jeff Sessions, who ranks on Judiciary. Skip the departing Jim Bunning, and the hot potato passes to Mike Crapo of Idaho, who is looking likely to make the surprising jump from #6 to Ranking Member.

HELP: That’s Senate-speak for Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, and this is only relevant if Tom Harkin grows nostalgic for Agriculture, or if Mike Enzi bolts for Budget. The next Senators in line are Barbara Milkulski and Lamar Alexander, and this would be the first opportunity for either.

Judiciary: Again, only relevant if Jeff Sessions wants Budget. Orrin Hatch is next but he doesn’t seem to want the position anymore (his seniority outranks Sessions’), and once again Chuck Grassley is unlikely to move (I can see why Iowa keeps this guy around….he’s everywhere!) Jon Kyl would be next, and then Lindsey Graham if the Minority Whip is otherwise occupied. Oh yeah, Chairman Pat Leahy isn’t going anywhere.

Rules and Administration: First things first: the chairman is Chuck Schumer. Now, ready for some fun? Bob Bennett is out, and (in order of seniority) Mitch McConnell is the floor leader, Thad Cochran is on Appropriations, Kay Bailey Hutchison is on Commerce, and Saxby Chambliss is on Agriculture. Next is Lamar Alexander, who would fit unless he takes over HELP, and after him is John Ensign, who seems to be a poor fit given his misconduct. That means that, under a perfect storm, Pat Roberts could rise from the most junior Republican to ranking member!

Indian Affairs: This is an oft-overlooked committee that is nonetheless very important to any Senator looking to win re-election in a Native-heavy state. With Byron Dorgan retiring, and Inouye, Akaka, Conrad, and Johnson unlikely to give up their chairmanships of Appropriations, Veterans Affairs, Budget, or Banking for a less powerful post, it looks like Maria Cantwell will be the new chairwoman. Jon Tester, who ranks just below Cantwell, has a much higher Native population in his home state, but I doubt he’ll be able to talk Cantwell out of the gavel.

House version to follow!