The losses may not be over:
With the recent update of election results from Wayne County, it appears Republican Ann Marie Buerkle has edged ahead of Democrat Dan Maffei in the race for the 25th District Congressional Seat.
Prior to the release of Wayne County’s preliminary results, Maffei had led Buerkle by about 3,000 votes. Now, Buerkle leads by less than 1,000 votes with roughly 6,000 absentee ballots remaining to be counted.
Oy. This could take a while, though – absentees aren’t due until November 9th (and military absentees on the 24th). 8,371 absentee ballots have been received so far (out of 11,645 that were mailed out). Sounds like we’ll have to let this one grease for at least a few more days.
538 gave Maffei a 93% of winning.
When it’s all said and done, we could end up under 190 seats. I think we’ve won AZ-07, WA-09, and VA-11.
Top-of-ticket problems in NY were overblown. If anyone says that GOP overperformed because of downticket effects from good performance in governor’s races, you can point to NY as a solid counterexample.
if this is true, the GOP in one night wiped out all of the gains made in New York, except for Bill Owens.
I thought this was a given. A gimmee. No way with Cuomo on top of ticket could this happen. Didn’t expect Wayne (rural and farm country) to swing so much. However, it should not be suprising – Paladino got 43% of the vote here.
Tack on this being a very red part of Maffei’s district and you got the perfect storm of the nutty conservative base coming out.
Doing some quick math – Maffei got 53% in Onondonga County (City of Syracuse). 80% of the absentee ballots are in Onondonga County – good for Maffei. Say its 10K – that will lead to about 600 votes in favor. This will wipe out Buerkle, however, the remaining 20% are in counties, like Wayne, which makes me conclude she will eek out a win by a small margin.
Upstate, Democrats are mostly wiped out, so whatever 2 seats get cut could end up Republican ones and Upstate is definitely where the cuts will occur. Even if Republicans do get some say in the process, I think redistricting will still damage them here. Democrats don’t have much to think about now in terms of who to protect.
In Wayne County, where only 60% of the vote is counted, and the only county not 100% in, Buerkle leads 62-38.
and the remaining 3,200 are mostly from the Syracuse area that went heavily for Maffei. Another 2,800 military absentees are still outstanding.
Berkle’s lead is only 659 votes so it is not inconceivable that the absentees could swing it back to Maffei