With Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring, Democrats thought they would have a great shot at picking up California’s Governorship. Then, they ran into problems. Jerry Brown who is the Attorney General and former Governor decided to run. He has material to attack and he knocked other candidates out of the primary who would have won the general election more easily like Antonio Villaraigosa. Then Meg Whitman, former CEO of ebay from Silicon Valley decided to run and brought all her money with her. The worst part is that this is a Republican year, putting the national mood against Democrats. Now Jerry Brown is running a tight race with Meg Whitman but since California is so Democratic, Whitman’s $119 million in ads have only been able to tie the race. Jerry Brown is finally campaigning and after a strong debate performance, he is leading by around 5 points. Also, the housekeeper scandal will hurt Whitman. The issue though is that Meg Whitman though can just write herself another check so she can buy the election instead of winning it. Whitman may be able to stifle the housekeeper story and if she does, it can still be a close race. This is why I created the baselines for the race. I factored in Presidential results from 2008 and Attorney General results from 2006.
The baselines are predictions for county percentages if the race is tied. The baselines show Brown doing well in the Bay Area but getting crushed in the Central Valley. He also carries two of three bellwether counties. He wins Lake and San Benito counties but loses Santa Barbara County. He also does poorly in Southern California except for LA County which he wins by 16 points. Also, I have the vote totals for each county below too. I had the turnout levels be 65% of 2008. I did not take into account the fact that some parts of the state might have 55% turnout of 2008 or 75%. For Jerry Brown to win, he will have to either increase turnout in the Bay Area or increase his vote percentage there. Okay, here are the baselines and a few links:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/q… clearer map of California
http://uselectionatlas.org/RES… 2008 results
http://www.sos.ca.gov/election… 2006 Attorney General results
Regional Breakdowns
Bay Area:
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For what it’s worth, here are my projections on best/worst-case scenarios for Brown, along with my current prediction…
Democrat – 42%
GOP – 34%
Independent – 24%
Best-case scenario…
Brown – 90/8/48 = 53%
Whitman – 8/89/44 = 44%
Others – 2/3/6 = 3%
Worst-case scenario…
Brown – 86/4/44 = 48%
Whitman – 11/94/48 = 49%
Others – 3/2/6 = 3%
Most likely scenario…
Brown – 89/6/45 = 50%
Whitman – 8/92/46 = 45%
Others – 3/2/9 = 5%
about this race: but my hispanic friend, whose mother is an illegal immigrant who received amnesty at some point, and who generally leans republican, is now strongly behind brown due to the housekeeper issue
loses on that map. See, e.g, SoS 2006.
….is how far central California swings Republican because of the water issue. Based on the polling we’ve seen for both Dennis Cardoza and Jim Costa, it could be seismic and could theoretically throw the baseline out of whack. I also think Riverside and San Bernardino Counties have the potential to be very ugly. With that said, my money is still on both Boxer and Brown to prevail this year, probably with margins in the five-point range.
Gray Davis lost the Central Valley and Southern California, excluding Los Angeles County, by double digits and still won. Many of these counties only go really heavily GOP when there is a big win for a Republican incumbent, in open seat years, the numbers are softer. I think Brown wins Santa Barbara County, the liberal areas of the city proper will likely turn out for Prop. 19 and that will bring Brown’s numbers up.
Brown will get closer to 60%, but i think there’ll be alot of ticket-splitting for the AG race, i wouldn’t be surprised if Cooley won L.A County. Imperial Co. looks about right, Large Hispanic/Latino presence with Whitman inroads plus its largely socially conservative. If he gets around 39-40% in the OC, Single digits in either Riverside, San Bernardino (likely) or San Diego, i think he’ll win with 5 points.
But you didn’t expect any third party votes? Really? Remember, this IS California we’re talking about… 😉