SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/26-28, likely voters, 8/31-9/2 in parentheses):
Rick Larsen (D-inc): 50 (46)
John Koster (R): 47 (50)
Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/27-29, likely voters, 8/31-9/2 in parentheses:
Suzan DelBene (D): 45 (41)
Dave Reichert (R-inc): 52 (54)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
SurveyUSA looks at the 2nd and 8th again (where one month ago, shortly post-primary, they found Rick Larsen losing narrowly to GOP challenger John Koster and Dave Reichert with a big lead over Dem challenger Suzan DelBene. This time, the results are considerably better, with 6-7 points worth of movement to the Dems in both races: Larsen now leads (only by 3 points, but hitting the 50% mark), while more surprisingly, DelBene is probably out of reach ultimately but has pulled within single digits of Reichert — who is avoiding debates, isn’t getting his usual cover from the Seattle Times, and generally seems to be trying to run out the clock on this race.
It wouldn’t be a SurveyUSA poll of Washington without a huge pile of millennial conservatives, and in the 2nd, the 18-34 year olds are breaking 59-37 for Koster (while Larsen leads 55-43 among the 65+ set, up from only a 2-pt lead in that demographic last time, which seems to be primarily responsible for the flip in positions). In the 8th, the age crosstabs aren’t that weird; instead, DelBene is making huge inroads among self-described moderates (turning a 4-pt deficit last time into a 57-40 lead now), and has also pulled into a lead among women.
I has this at “Lean Dem” since the primary; the 52% that Democrats collectively got in the primary did not seem to be able to go anywhere except up in the general after Larsen runs an actual campaign (although, to be fair, the enthusiasm gap appears to be nearly nonexistent in Washington). WA-8, however, is a little surprising; after Reichert nearly broke 50% in the primary with DelBene twenty points behind, her campaign was destined to being run in the wrong year. Now, it’s still doubtful she could pull it out, but she certainly has the momentum and seems capable of getting at least within Burner territory of Reichert.
Why is SUSA so off with them?
Reichert is only winning by 4 among white voters (50-46) and losing by 5 among Asian voters (45-50). That means among black and Hispanic voters, Reichert has to be winning by a significant margin. I know that the subsample is small with an astronomical margin of error, but it’s interesting to look at.
I have pretty much stopped believing any polling they put out. Their crosstabs are so ridiculous it’s not really worth spending time analyzing their polls when PPP sets the standard for accurate polling.
I’m not an expert on conducting surveys/polls and releasing data, why do they even calculate/release crosstabs if the sample is so small that the information is useless?
I’m thinking about all the SUSA polls that have GOP candidates sweeping the young vote and being highly competitive for African-Americans when that flies in the face of history and reality.
Tied game in WA-02, Reichert ahead by 10 in WA-08.
People have apparently been saying that Reichert has been brain damaged from a head injury he recently suffered. The fact that he felt the need to push back on it suggests to me that he might have gotten some numbers suggesting it’s hurting his re-elect numbers a bit.
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
…If it wasn’t for the terrible environment.
He made some statements regarding the fakeness of his moderation, and I don’t think environmental groups are supporting him this time.