Quinnipiac (10/13-17, likely voters, 9/15-19 in parens):
Joe Sestak (D): 46 (43)
Pat Toomey (R): 48 (50)
Undecided 5 (7)
(MoE: ±3%)
While Quinnipiac doesn’t quite give us the hat trick of three polls in a row with a lead for Joe Sestak, it does show, similarly, significant movement in Sestak’s direction, not just from the undecided column but also directly out of Toomey’s share. While Quinnipiac doesn’t give registration or 2008-vote numbers, Barack Obama’s approval is 44/53, showing this is a similar-looking sample to Tuesday’s PPP poll. As with that poll, the difference is Dems finally consolidating around Sestak, who’s 89-7 among Dems. (Toomey leads 56-35 among indies here, which explains their slightly more favorable overall result for Toomey.) Also, worth noting: Quinnipiac’s survey period was ending at the same time that PPP’s was beginning (see below), so there may have been slightly less Sestak surge for them to measure at that point.
Public Policy Polling (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-16 in parens):
Dan Onorato (D): 46 (35)
Tom Corbett (R): 48 (48)
Undecided 6 (17)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
The gubernatorial race has gotten short shrift all cycle long — partly because it hasn’t been very interesting — and even as it’s been clear Sestak was making his move, there wasn’t any matching movement in the gubernatorial race… until now. Here’s the gubernatorial half of the PPP sample, and it’s the best result Dan Onorato has gotten all cycle. Republican Tom Corbett still has better favorables (47/34 to Onorato’s 45/39), and he hasn’t lost any ground in the toplines, but Onorato has closed the gap among indies (to the same 48-46 Corbett lead as the toplines).
Muhlenberg (10/17-20, likely voters, 10/16-19 in parens):
Joe Sestak (D): 43 (44)
Pat Toomey (R): 43 (41)
Undecided 14 (15)Dan Onorato (D): 38 (40)
Tom Corbett (R): 49 (47)
Undecided 12 (14)
(MoE: ±5%)
Muhlenberg’s daily tracking poll splits the difference: they keep seeing a tossup race between Sestak and Toomey (although the tie is down a few points from yesterday’s results), but not seeing what PPP is seeing regarding the gubernatorial race.
With PA-Sen, PA-Gov, and PA-07 moving toward us, I can’t help but think that Gerlach might be sweating at least somewhat.
that PPP Gov is somewhat of an outlier. It’s not really being supported by any other polling.
Senate is now clearly a tossup. Would be interesting to see where these Dems that are coming home are from, if its Philly/burbs or Western PA. That fact could determine a lot of House races.
The poll has Toomey winning independents 3:2. Of course, quinnipiac did not release the partisan breakdown of the respondents. My guess is that they are predicting an even percentage of Republicans and Democrats as a total of the electorate.
The Muhlenburg poll shows that only 10% of likely voters are 18-39 whereas in 2008, they made up about 40% of actual voters, and in 2006 they made up about 30%. I know there is expected to be an enthusiasm gap, but will the proportion of the under 40 vote really go down three or four-fold?
what with their substituting hard c’s with k’s?
Rasmussen has the GOP running away with races that everyone else says are tight. Even when Ras concedes tightening, they show a bigger GOP margin than anyone else.
PPP goes the opposite way on some of theirs, although their PA-Sen poll has been vindicated by Muhlenberg and Quinnipiac. But PPP is really out there on PA-Gov and IL-Gov, and also CO-Sen giving Bennet an outright lead when no one else will except Dem internals.
Needless to say, I really hope PPP is vindicated across the board. But I’ve been obsessively following elections long enough to know that today’s polling champ is often tomorrow’s chump.
If Sestak is really winning Democrats 89-7, I don’t see him losing. Even Santorum (!) got 7% of Democrats in 2006. This is why I liked Sestak’s debate performance. It really appealed to PA Dems like me. Sestak doesn’t have to win independents (only 19% of voters in 2006) to take this race, but losing them by 20 points would make me very nervous.
Nate Silver this morning: “Still think it’s a tough race for Sestak to close when Ds getting killed in Rust Belt. If he does it he’s an amazing politician.”
I don’t want to pick on Nate Silver alone for this one, because pundits (Chris Matthews) back in 2008 were even more obnoxious about portraying my home state as a “rust belt” state.
OK. Philadelphia and its suburbs are ALL OF 90 miles away from the DC beltway – maybe some people should take a drive. Philly and its suburbs are in NO WAY rust belt territory. They are part of the northeastern megalopolis and you better believe they vote that way. Obama took a 650,000 vote advantage out of Philly and the suburbs in 2008, and won every single Philly ‘burb county by at least 9 points. Not every Pennsylvania voter is an angry, gun-hoarding, former union member who rants about Washington spending.
And Nate is now definitively a beltway analyst. He chides us for paying too much attention to outliers. Now that there are corroborating polls confirming a tight race, he falls back on beltway bullshit. What a hypocrite.
I worry about is Sestak peeking too early. Does this trend last two weeks? I still think Toomey is going to prevail. Probably by a two or three point margin though.