StephenCLE’s Election Rankings – October 21

Welcome to this super-massive edition of StephenCLE’s Election Rankings:

With election day now just 12 days away, in an effort to avoid spamming up the diaries area, I have combined all of my prognostications into one, industrial-sized effort. So here we go.  

Ladies and gentlemen of SSP, I am frustrated.  I am also annoyed.  The reason for my trouble is that I don’t know what to believe.  This whole time, democrats in the House have been running ahead of the national generic ballot, and I held onto the belief that at some point, either the national polls or the state/district polls had to relent and fall in line with the other.  It now appears obvious that this is not likely.  This week actually saw most Senate democrats improving their position in all regions except for the west coast, and though some House democrats struggled this week, others improved their position.  Yet the generic ballot got worse for Team Blue, surging from a 4.5 point republican advantage last week to a 6-point lead in the most recent pollster.com average.  So now I’m stuck between trying to decide who is the real adjudicator of truth.  In most cases, I’m starting to hedge a bit on the individual district polls, subtracting a point or two from the democratic totals to attribute for the generic ballot.

The other big development within the past week is that the playing field has expanded, not just on the democratic side, but the republican one as well.  Many R-leaning seats that appeared out of reach seem to be attainable for the democrats, prompting many leftward changes.  So without further ado, here’s where we stand:

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 219 Democrats, 216 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +37

Democratic Pickups (6) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1, WA-8

Republican Pickups (43) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, AZ-5, CA-11, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, GA-8, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MS-1, NH-1, ND-1, NC-8, NY-19, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, PA-7, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, WI-7, WI-8, WV-1

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – AZ-5, IL-17, NC-8, NH-1, PA-10, TN-4, WV-1

Republican to Democrat – NH-2, PA-8

Net Seats Changing By Region:

Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) – R+8

Southeast (Border South & Deep South) – R+15

Midwest (Great Lakes & Plains) – R+10

West (Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast) – R+5

The Map:

Ratings Changes for October 13-20:

1.New York-22 – Solid D to Lean D – It’s not good to lose your cool in politics.  For shame Hinchey.

2.Ohio-10 – Solid D to Likely D – I’ve always thought Kucinich’s unpopularity could make this interesting.

3.Maine-2 – Likely D to Solid D – Polling suggests that Michaud is pretty much safe now.

4.Ohio-6 – Likely D to Lean D – Rumors of Wilson’s domestic abuse are disquieting.

5.California-20 – Likely D to Lean D – The Central Valley could be intimidating, but Costa still leads.

6.Arkansas-4 – Lean D to Likely D – Ross leading big in polling this week, is looking good.

7.Pennsylvania-13 – Likely D to Solid D – Philly Burbs are moving back to Ds, good news for Schwartz.

8.New York-23 – Lean D to Toss Up – 2-way race makes it harder on Owens to win.  

9.New York-24 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D – Arcuri has been surprisingly strong this cycle.

10.New Jersey-12 – Likely D to Lean D – Polls show Holt only up by 5.

11.Minnesota-1 – Likely D to Lean D – Walz in slightly tighter race than thought, but still ahead.

12.Oregon-5 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D – Schrader locked in a tight one with Bruun.

13.Illinois-17 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Hare got caught totally flatfooted, and the top of ticket sucks.

14.North Carolina-8 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt R – This move is more national, Kissell’s probably eroded.

15.New Hampshire-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Shea-Porter consistently behind in polling.

16.New Hampshire-2 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D – Phenomenal surge by Kuster recently.

17.Pennsylvania-3 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R – Re-election chances slipping away for Dahlkemper.

18.Pennsylvania-8 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D – Philly burbs going blue gets Murphy over hump.

19.Pennsylvania-10 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – District simply too red for Carney this year.

20.Tennessee-4 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Dejarlais has lead, and generic ballot is scary.

21.Washington-3 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R – Herrera might win this without even campaigning.

22.Arkansas-1 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R – Causey still alive in close race with AR improving barely.

23.Arizona-3 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R – Hulburd lead from PPP means it’s game on here.

24.Arizona-5 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Can’t make up my mind on this one, national move.

25.West Virginia-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Same here, national move over local race.  

26.California-44 – Likely R to Lean R – Hedrick showing competitive in polls, if only he had the cash.

27.Tennessee-5 – Solid D to Likely D – The PVI suggests that Cooper could be in trouble in a wave state.

The Senate:

The situation in the Senate has improved rather dramatically for Team Blue in the last several days, to the point where it is now fairly conceivable to see them keep 55 or 56 seats if everything goes their way on election night.  Pennsylvania is definitely the biggest mover, as I now have that seat moving into the blue column while Nevada actually drifted the other way.  West Virginia is now on the positive side of the ledger as well (unless you’re a republican).  Missouri and Kentucky are definitely races to watch now as well, as Carnahan and Conway saw good polling results this week, especially the latter.  I’ve moved both races to toss-up.  In all honesty, I think that Missouri could be this week’s Pennsylvania, and that a Carnahan close similar to Sestak could be coming.  New Hampshire is still out there, but it’s a very unlikely victory I think.  The 4th and final seat that the democrats might have a shot at is Alaska, which has de-generated into a 3-way free-for-all.  For the purposes of that race, I consider Miller and Murkowski one in the same, and the Dem chances are solely the chances that McAdams wins.  I’ve included my probabilities of each seat flipping on the commentary.

First off, to the map:

Senate Math:

Current Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

New Senate – 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

Swing – Republicans +6

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem pickups – none

Rep pickups – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada

Ratings Commentary:

1.North Dakota (100%) – This one’s a lock.  

2.Arkansas (99%) – This seat is virtually gone as well.  Blanche is becoming marginally better in polling, but Boozman is still well over 50%.  This would be a real miracle.

3.Indiana (96%) – Now that Ellsworth is up with ads all over Indiana, I wonder if this race has tightened at all.  The dearth of polling here makes it hard to tell.  Still, Coats is extremely likely to win here.

4.Wisconsin (85%) – Feingold is improving marginally in the polls now, but Johnson is still pulling in at least 49% in every poll I’ve seen.  Still hard to see how Feingold pulls it out unless if Johnson loses his favorables somehow as Feingold is a known quantity.

5.Colorado (58%) – This race is still close, with both sides claiming a lead in various surveys.  I’m surprised that the independent nature of the CO electorate hasn’t turned against Bennet, he’s actually been quite impressive and has about a 4 in 10 chance of pulling it off.

6.Nevada (52%) – Angle has moved into the lead, barely.  But the fact that she has any lead at all speaks to just how much Nevadans don’t like Harry Reid.  This is going to be a very ugly finish on both sides, and it’s a jump ball.

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7.Illinois (49%) – This begins the start of the blue column, and it’s a cliffhanger right now between Giannoulias and Kirk.  The fact that PPP had Kirk leading this week really concerns me, as it shows that maybe Democrats won’t come home to Alexi like I thought they would.  Still, I think Giannoulias wins this one because of IL’s partisan lean.

8.Pennsylvania (46%) – This race started moving a bit last week, and I got some flak for moving this race into the toss-up column.  While I don’t want to self-gloss, that was the right call, as earlier this week Joe Sestak surged into a statistical tie with Pat Toomey and probably a very small lead if PPP, Quinnipiac, and Muhlenberg are to be believed.  This one is better than IL because Sestak is better than Giannoulias.

9.West Virginia (39%) – We have a bit of conflicting data right now in WV.  Some polls late last week made it look like Manchin was pulling away, yet Scotty Rass came to Raese’s rescue earlier this week with both his original recipe and extra crispy polling.  I suspect that Manchin is winning, and that he’ll pull away late because of his extremely strong favorables.

10.Washington (34%) – Unlike other parts of the country, it appears that the west coast is moving rightward right now, and Dino Rossi has closed the gap somewhat on Patty Murray.  I’ve yet to see him get over the 46% mark in any polls though, and that has to be a concern for any GOPers that are hoping for a pickup here.  Murray’s favorables are still very good.

11.Kentucky (32%) – Kentucky makes a foray into the rankings on the back of several good polls for Jack Conway.  This is probably a low single digit race now, and if the undecideds break away from Paul, who knows, this one could turn over.  I’m ambivalent though because after all, this is Kentucky.

12.Alaska (23%) – The crazy three-way nature of this race makes this one unpredictable.  The major question on everybody’s mind is whether or not people will write in for Murkowski like they are telling pollsters, and if not, to whom will they go, Miller or McAdams?  This is probably a 35-35-28 race right now, putting it in the same neighborhood as CA and MO, just slightly higher because of ballot situation.

13.California (19%) – Fiorina is showing some fight even though her compatriot Meg Whitman is falling in the governor’s race.  She’s even tied with Boxer in some republican polling, although Boxer has a lead in all independent surveys that I’ve seen.  Still, this is going to be a very tough one for Fiorina to pull out because of CA’s democratic electorate.

14.Missouri (17%) – Roy Blunt’s lead on Robin Carnahan has dropped into the mid-single digits, and what I think is telling is that, even in his best of surveys, Blunt was barely hitting the 50% mark.  If Carnahan closes strongly, this could be a race that shocks everybody on election night.  I’ve always thought that Carnahan was the superior candidate anyway.

Pretty much everything is quiet on the gubernatorial side of things.  I only had one governorship changing hands this week, that one being Maine where Paul LePage has led by 3-5 points in most recent polls.  But considering those leads are of the 33-28-14 variety, anything is still possible here.  

The governor races I’m watching most closely are all cliffhangers, those being Florida, Oregon, Vermont, Ohio, and Maine.  Florida and Ohio are huge races not only for the statehouse balance but also for redistricting, as wins by Alex Sink and Ted Strickland would undo republican gerrymanders of congressional seats.  Right now I have Sink barely ahead, Strickland barely behind.  At the moment I have Kitzhaber and Shumlin barely ahead as well, though I’m more confident about the former than the latter.

One last note, Rhode Island, I consider independent candidate Lincoln Chafee as a democrat, so combined between him and Frank Caprio, RI-Gov is a solid D pickup.

Current Governors – 26 democrats, 24 republicans

New Governors – 20 democrats, 30 republicans

Swing – Republicans +6

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem Pickups – Rhode Island, Connecticut, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Florida, Vermont

Rep Pickups – Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois, Ohio, Maine

The Map:

And now, the Big Boards:

2010 House Big Board (as of October 21 update)

Solid Dem – 146 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, KY-3, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, ME-1, ME-2, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-1, RI-2, SC-6, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 28 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-7 (Grijalva)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Michigan-15 (Dingell)

Minnesota-8 (Oberstar)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-10 (Kucinich)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Tennessee-5 (Cooper)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Washington-9 (Smith)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 30 seats:

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-20 (Costa)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-22 (Hinchey)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

Ohio-16 (Wilson)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-27 (Ortiz)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 15 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-23 (Owens)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 27 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Lean Rep – 21 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Likely Rep – 11 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-16 (Pitts)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 156 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-8, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

2010 Senate Big Board (as of October 21)

Solid Dem – 6 seats

Hawaii (Inouye)

Maryland (Mikulski)

New York (Schumer)

New York (Gillibrand)

Oregon (Wyden)

Vermont (Leahy)

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

Delaware (Open)

Lean Dem – 1 seats

California (Boxer)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 4 seats

Illinois (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

Washington (Murray)

West Virginia (Manchin)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 5 seats

Colorado (Open)

Missouri (Open)

Kentucky (Open)

Nevada (Reid)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

Lean Rep – 2 seats

Alaska (Murkowski)

New Hampshire (Open)

Likely Rep – 7 seats

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Florida (Open)

Indiana (Open)

Louisiana (Vitter)

North Carolina (Burr)

Ohio (Open)

Solid Rep – 11 seats

Arizona (McCain)

Alabama (Shelby)

Georgia (Isakson)

Idaho (Crapo)

Iowa (Grassley)

Kansas (Open)

North Dakota (Open)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

South Carolina (Demint)

South Dakota (Thune)

Utah (Open)

2010 Governors Big Board (as of October 21)

Solid Dem – 4 seats

Arkansas

New Hampshire

New York

Rhode Island

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Colorado

Connecticut

Lean Dem – 5 seats

California

Hawaii

Maryland

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Toss Up – 7 seats

Florida

Illinois

Maine

New Mexico

Ohio

Oregon

Vermont

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Georgia

Pennsylvania

South Carolina

Texas

Wisconsin

Likely Rep – 5 seats

Alaska

Arizona

Iowa

Michigan

Nevada

Solid Rep – 9 seats

Alabama

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming