A special roundup of tonight’s independent expenditure filings from the DCCC — likely their last major buys for the cycle:
| District | Incumbent | Buy | CTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL-02 | Bright | $266,416 | $1,401,924 |
| AR-01 | OPEN | $538,343 | $1,760,295 |
| AZ-01 | Kirkpatrick | $270,804 | $1,018,678 |
| AZ-05 | Mitchell | $269,473 | $1,089,934 |
| AZ-07 | Grijalva | $82,991 | $178,153 |
| AZ-08 | Giffords | $132,195 | $132,195 |
| CA-11 | McNerney | $471,126 | $1,011,469 |
| CA-20 | Costa | $191,580 | $346,583 |
| CO-03 | Salazar | $258,248 | $1,148,734 |
| CO-07 | Perlmutter | $301,064 | $465,176 |
| CT-05 | Murphy | $274,950 | $274,950 |
| FL-02 | Boyd | $170,422 | $337,516 |
| FL-22 | Klein | $315,840 | $315,840 |
| FL-25 | OPEN | $775,900 | $1,394,729 |
| GA-02 | Bishop | $256,835 | $756,286 |
| GA-08 | Marshall | $11,340 | $42,321 |
| HI-01 | Djou | $126,252 | $814,931 |
| IA-01 | Braley | $166,944 | $180,739 |
| IA-02 | Loebsack | $270,353 | $578,620 |
| IA-03 | Boswell | $157,789 | $723,500 |
| IL-10 | OPEN | $590,722 | $1,725,029 |
| IL-14 | Foster | $526,917 | $1,283,956 |
| IL-17 | Hare | $92,158 | $1,091,570 |
| IN-02 | Donnelly | $179,712 | $729,651 |
| IN-09 | Hill | $454,496 | $1,305,315 |
| KY-06 | Chandler | $133,451 | $452,695 |
| MA-10 | OPEN | $823,059 | $1,390,878 |
| MD-01 | Kratovil | $339,824 | $1,467,081 |
| MI-01 | OPEN | $201,432 | $1,274,577 |
| MI-07 | Schauer | $354,294 | $1,354,383 |
| MI-09 | Peters | $497,250 | $497,250 |
| MN-01 | Walz | $129,922 | $255,726 |
| MO-04 | Skelton | $458,420 | $1,236,357 |
| MS-01 | Childers | $224,934 | $957,497 |
| NC-07 | McIntyre | $62,134 | $202,049 |
| NC-08 | Kissell | $458,101 | $1,705,390 |
| ND-AL | Pomeroy | $294,008 | $795,743 |
| NH-02 | OPEN | $487,837 | $968,365 |
| NJ-03 | Adler | $642,132 | $642,132 |
| NM-01 | Heinrich | $372,240 | $860,469 |
| NV-03 | Titus | $404,364 | $1,354,173 |
| NY-19 | Hall | $409,200 | $502,692 |
| NY-20 | Murphy | $220,230 | $674,536 |
| NY-23 | Owens | $431,140 | $921,679 |
| NY-24 | Arcuri | $260,352 | $987,973 |
| OH-06 | Wilson | $240,781 | $596,578 |
| OH-16 | Boccieri | $296,096 | $1,449,103 |
| OH-18 | Space | $277,311 | $1,512,696 |
| OR-05 | Schrader | $354,767 | $1,239,101 |
| PA-07 | OPEN | $702,325 | $950,105 |
| PA-08 | Murphy | $544,222 | $544,222 |
| PA-10 | Carney | $217,499 | $579,489 |
| PA-11 | Kanjorski | $196,926 | $670,576 |
| PA-12 | Critz | $325,011 | $1,100,181 |
| SC-05 | Spratt | $252,007 | $1,124,024 |
| SD-AL | Herseth | $262,822 | $344,786 |
| TN-04 | Davis | $168,260 | $454,260 |
| TX-17 | Edwards | $568,953 | $626,750 |
| TX-23 | Rodriguez | $169,021 | $815,577 |
| VA-02 | Nye | $88,514 | $788,447 |
| VA-05 | Perriello | $142,123 | $593,713 |
| VA-11 | Connolly | $1,079,867 | $1,458,790 |
| WA-02 | Larsen | $344,383 | $605,930 |
| WA-03 | OPEN | $562,384 | $1,728,123 |
| WI-07 | OPEN | $131,383 | $880,769 |
| WV-01 | OPEN | $210,483 | $1,180,131 |
| Total: | $21,492,332 | $57,853,090 |
Of particular note is the $1 million dropped by the D-trip against Keith Fimian in VA-11.
an extremely cheap market in arkansas-1 is the most expensive d-trip district.
it looks like gene taylor was triaged. good, bad, or revenge?
Hey- Our guy Bill Foster is the incumbent.
on a candidate in WV-1 who’ll probably end up jumping to the Republicans if he wins, or at least vote with them most of the time?
First of all, they should have pressured Berry, Baird, Obey, and Stupak to run for reelection, including with pleas from Obama. These seats would all likely be safe if we had incumbents there.
Dems leading early voting in IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, but DCCC still going negative on all the Republicans makes me think they are less than fully confident. I heard a radio ad today (DCCC) about Brad Zaun’s 2001 incident when a police officer had to warn him to stay away from his ex-girlfriend.
Iowa Dems say Culver now leads Branstad in IA-02. If that’s true, it’s hard for me to imagine a significant number of Culver/Miller-Meeks ticket-splitters.
Unsurprising Incumbents
Kosmas (FL-24)
Driehaus (OH-01)
Kilroy (OH-15)
Dahlkemper (PA-03)
Mildly Surprising
Markey (CO-04): Pelosi’s apparently left her and Dahlkemper out to dry, which is surprising.
Grayson (FL-08): Or does he just have enough $ to sink or swim on his own?
Shea-Porter (NH-01): They didn’t want to buy in the Boston media market?
Teague (NM-02)
Kagan (WI-08): Self funding?
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b…
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b…
Good on them for doing some ground work there.
One…million dollars! Don’t know if that says much about the competitiveness of the district, or just how expensive it is to advertise in the DC area.
Unless they’re seeing something I haven’t, I think the Boyd ad buy is a waste of $170,000; I would rather that money have gone elsewhere. I’m not sure what the runner up is….
A week ago, I would have said the D-Trip was nuts to drop over a half mil on Causey. I’m still not sure that it isn’t but I won’t flat out say that.
Also mildly surprised to see that they’re not playing in AZ-03.
Louisville media market isn’t that much and covers most of the district. That will go far. Republicans have still spent more. I see Young ads all the time. Still them spending to me indicates Hill’s RUMORED internal was probably accurate as they would not spend on him if he was down. Then again he’s an incumbent who took a lot of tough votes, they probably promised they would spend on him. I mean there spending on Boyd who is toast.
Why does the DCCC CONSTANTLY IGNORE CA-44?!?! It’s a better investment that stupid AZ-07, which may give Grijalva a smaller margin, but he isn’t going to lose.
Hedrick on the other hand, could REALLY win this one, yet everyone has written it off for some god damn reason. WHAT THE HELL!? We saw a poll about three weeks ago that showed him closing in quickly on Calvert. CONSERVATIVES HATE CALVERT TOO!! God Damn it. If the DCCC did their god damn job in the first place, and examined all potentially close races, Hedrick would be in congress right now, but instead, he lost by 2% in 2008, which lit a fire under Calvert’s ass, who started raking in the cash to put out the potential problem that was Hedrick.
Nice job DCCC. You F@%ing Morons.
Have not seen that much on union commericals. I heard on NPR or CSPAN radio the other day that the utnions state that they are spending a lot of money but it does not appear to be on advertising. So some of the Republican strategists were worried that this money was solely going to pay for GOTV. Has anyone heard this as well?
Perlmutter is seriously in trouble? Really? And nothing for Markey?
And that seems like a freakin’ enormous amount of money in Ike Skelton’s district – or is media there a lot more expensive than I’d have thought?
Off the top of my head I can name:
Callahan, Bera, Trivadi, Delbene, and Hedrick
What the heck are the DCCC thinking??!?!?!?!?
Why drop over 500k for an open seat in AR-1 when you have more deserving and realistic opportunities? All of them have PVI better than AR-1.
At the very least, Seals and Hanabusa is being sent reinforcements.
Dunno what that means, except that maybe Dems have stopped the bleeding in the Philly burbs, and it made sense to drop some cash there (whereas previously Patrick Murphy had been written off).
Some numbers from the two nominally separate groups have trickled in over the evening.
Listing the media buy numbers only, not the media production cost…
CA-20: $328K
GA-02: $123K
HI-01: $76K
IN-02: $170K
MO-03: $241K
NC-11: $241K
ND-AL: $238K
NY-22: $256K
OH-16: $438K
TN-04: $263K
TX-23: $322K
Now here’s something fishy to me…
CO-SEN: $646K
IL-SEN: $1025K
NV-SEN: $556K
WA-SEN: $1040K
Wow. Huge spending in the 3 out of 4 of the Senate races that NRSC skipped today? Does that sound like illegal coordination?