Liveblog Thread #2

9:11pm: Follow us over here.

9:00pm: Sorry things are getting a little pokey with our servers. IN-07 has been called for Andre Carson, so we can stop worrying about that one. IN-02, with 85% in, is a 48-47 lead for Joe Donnelly. This one’ll be tight. Also close: MA-10, where Keating is up 46-44 with 10% reporting. Barney Frank is crushing in MA-04, that was a lot of panic over nothing. Also good news: Patrick Murphy leads 52-48 in PA-08 with 2% reporting. Lots of bad news, though: we’re trailing in NJ-03, NJ-12, MI-01, and MI-07.

8:57pm: NC-Sen has been called; Richard Burr beats the curse on the cursed seat. It’s a GOP hold, as he leads Elaine Marshall 54-44.

8:54pm: How about some House races where we’re winning? WV-01, WV-03 (thanks to the Manchine coattails), NC-02, NC-08, NC-11, MA-05, and MA-06.

8:52pm: Some other House races where we’re currently trailing: KS-03, TX-23, TX-17, SC-05.

8:50pm: Two more House calls, both GOP pickups: Daniel Webster beats Alan Grayson in FL-08, and Todd Young beats Baron Hill in IN-09.  

8:45pm: Well, this is a drag, although a moment that was always likely. VA-05 has been called for Robert Hurt, beating Tom Perriello.

8:44pm: Two gubernatorial calls: TN-Gov called for Bill Haslam, which is a GOP pickup. Arkansas stays in Mike Beebe’s hands (a Democratic hold).

8:41pm: Two very important Senate calls: Joe Manchin has won in WV-Sen, and Richard Blumenthal has won in CT-Sen. Do the math: that makes GOP control well nigh impossible, short of some sort of Lieberman-related hijinks. However, one more Senate GOP takeaway to report: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln. With 0% reporting! They’re that sure.

8:40pm: Here are some House race calls. IN-08 for Larry Buchson, one more GOP pickup. OH-09 and OH-10 are called for Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich, respectively.

8:35pm: Other northeast gov races are going according to plan: Martin O’Malley is winning in MD, 54-44 (4% in), and Deval Patrick is winning in MA, 49-43-7 (2% in). Dan Onorato is actually up in PA, 51-49 (1% in, but I won’t expect that to last). Further afield, TN and OK are headed for the GOP column, though not called yet. Bill Haslam’s up 71-28, while Mary Fallin’s up a more pedestrian 59-41.

8:32pm: Yikes, here’s one more House takeaway, and it’s one a lot of prognosticators didn’t see coming. Rick Boucher loses to Morgan Griffith in VA-09. Cap ‘n’ trade’s first casualty.

8:30pm: Two very tight gubernatorial races in New England. In CT-Gov, it’s 49-49 between Malloy and Foley, with 2% in. And in Maine, it looks like Eliot Cutler made a race of it after all. He and Paul LePage are tied 41-41, with Libby Mitchell at 18, with 1% reporting.

8:27pm: Ted Strickland is still hanging in there in OH-Gov, up 51-45 with 13% reporting. Marco Rubio still leads 50-30-20 over Crist and Meek, with 46% in, not that it matters as that’s been called.

8:23pm: Our first House loss of the night is certified: FL-24 is called for Sandy Adams, who wins about 60-40 with 44% in. (Remember that Suzanne Kosmas had one of the biggest victory margins of all the 08 frosh, over the hapless Feeney.)

8:19pm: In MD-01, Harris leads Dem Frank Kratovil by 56-41 with 0.7% in. In TX-17, Chet Edwards is up 53-46 in the early vote, while Quico Canseco leads Dem Ciro Rodriguez by 50-46 with 1% in.

8:15pm: Some other various gube updates: Deal’s up 59-37 in GA-Gov with 6% in, and Scott’s up 50-46 with 14% in in FL-Gov. In Ohio, Ted Strickland is somehow leading by 53-43, and Nikki Haley leads Vince Sheheen by 53-46 in South Carolina. In Vermont, Dubie (R) leads by 52-45.

8:14pm: Our first catch of the day: DE-AL has been called for John Carney.

8:12pm: NH-Gov has been called for Dem incumbent John Lynch.

8:10pm: In VA-11, Keith Fimian leads Dem Rep. Gerry Connolly by 51-47 with 4% in.

8:09pm: A bit of good news — Joe Donnelly has pulled ahead in IN-02, 49-46 with 55% reported.

8:07pm: Kelly Ayotte wins NH-Sen.

8:06pm: Also, the early returns are favoring Joe Manchin in WV-Sen by 53-45, but only 0.1% is in.

8:04pm: We have some Senate calls: Marco Rubio wins FL-Sen, Chris Coons wins DE-Sen and, shockingly, Barb Mikulski beats the odds and wins re-election in Maryland.

8:00pm: Some results from the Tarheel state: In NC-02, Etheridge (D-inc) leads 71-27, David Price (D-inc) trails 49-51 in NC-04, Mike McIntyre (D-inc) leads 55-45 in NC-07, Larry Kissell (D-inc) leads 52-45, and Jeff Miller (R) leads by 10% over Heath Shuler (D-inc) in NC-11.

7:59pm: A boatload of states are just about to close… AL, CT, DE, IL, KS, ME, MD, MA, MI, MS, MO, NJ, ND, OK, PA, SD, TN, and TX.

7:54pm: IN-03 was just called for Republican Marlin Stutzman. Hardly a surprise, but I think there’s a campaign pollster out there that either should be shot or should not have allowed the campaign to put out such a whiffer of a fudged poll…

7:51pm: Does Allen Boyd have any chance? He’s down 55-39, with 3% in. In OH-06, Charlie Wilson leads 51-45 in what looks like the early vote.

7:48pm: Hey, a vulnerable Democrat is ahead! In GA-02, embattled Dem incumbent Sanford Bishop leads 58-42 with 1% in. In, GA-08 GOPer Austin Scott is crushing Dem Jim Marshall by 58-42 (also with 1% in). Conservadem kingpin John Barrow’s up 55-45 in GA-12.

7:47pm: In VA-05, Hurt’s back in lead at 52-46 with 27% in; in VA-09 Griffith leads Rick Boucher by 52-46 (with 16% in).

7:44pm: Per CNN, KY-03 has been called for John Yarmuth. Well, at least we’re keeping two of the frosh class of 2006 (counting Vermont’s Pete Welch in the equation).

Time to change the sheets.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

256 thoughts on “Liveblog Thread #2”

  5. Marshall is losing Pulaski County, a county he had carried in his tough re-election in 2006.

    In GA-02, Bishop is losing Mitchell County despite Barnes winning it thus far.  Not a good sign, but not completely devastating either.

    Barnes is winning is some rural counties that don’t go Democratic.  This is a good sign.

    Barrow is sweating, but that’s probably a factor of the counties currently coming in.

  8. I’m hoping there might be a few pleasant surprises there, at least Nathan Deal not winning.

    Barrow — I know it probably won’t happen but sometimes I think he will switch parties.

    I’m not crazy about the Democrats who think saying they won’t vote for Pelosi will convince anyone, but I hope Marshall pulls through. His opponent seems so generic and will probably just do as he’s told, not what is best for the district.

  9. Hey…should these FL-GOV numbers for Sink be frightening to us so far…she’s down about 6 pts with 22% in. If she wins this will make the night slightly better for me.

  10. US House District 2

    Bob Etheridge (D) (i)6,898 76%

    Renee Ellmers (R)2,125 23%

    Tom Rose (L)1001%

    US House District 4

    B.J. Lawson (R)27,241 50%

    David Price (D) (i)27,209 50%

    US House District 7

    Mike McIntyre (D) (i)10,521 55%

    Ilario Pantano (R)8,561 45%

    US House District 8

    Harold Johnson (R)5,149 51%

    Larry Kissell (D) (i)4,696 46%

    Thomas Hill (L)3283%

    US House District 11

    Jeff Miller (R)22,232 56%

    Heath Shuler (D) (i)17,259 44%

    http://www.wral.com/news/polit…

  12. My 32 year incumbent state rep and former high school teacher is trailing a woman who makes Angle look like a Harvard law professor. Still time though, not a HUGE lead he can and hopefully will pull it out. FYI we lost the IN St. House. Also Florida called for Rubio and DE for Coons.  

  19. St Joe County pretty much came in all together (like nothing to 70% in) — he’s now up by 2.5%

  20. With about half of the precincts in VA-05 reporting, Hurt leads Perriello 52.8 to 44.9.

    However, nearly every precinct I have looked at in Charlottesville (only 1 bucks the trend here) and Danville, Tom is outperforming his percentages from 2008.

    In other news, with all 11 precincts reporting in Prince Edward County, Perriello has won it 53.1 to 45.0. He won it by a margin of 53.8 to 46.1 in ’08. Jeffrey Clark, the teabagging independent, is having some effect as he won 1.67% in Prince Edward Co.

  24. Mark and Tekzilla are looking prescient.

    Virginia is looking it’s going to go from 6-5 Dem to 9-2 GOP. Enormously disappointing.

    And most of them are gone to stay, except that I can’t picture a Northern Virginia district electing a hard-right doofus like Fimian in anything but a GOP wave year.  

  26.  It looks like the exit polls show Toomey ahead by 2 which shows that the Democratic areas probably turned out to narrow it but not enough to win. Also, Coons won immediately too and the Connecticut Senate race was characterized as “a state with a Blumenthal lead.” Also, North Carolina being too early to call in itself is good news. I’m worried about Florida though.  

  28. but I’m worried, because in Polk County, turnout is highest in Republican areas (that is, good for Zaun). Might just reflect that more Dems voted early, or Boswell might be ok with independents, but I am worried.

    If we lose the secretary of state’s race, that will be terrible. Iowa has a great secretary of state, and the GOP candidate is just an ignorant robot.

  29. As has been the case for months, the Free Press is predicting a “lop-sided” victory for Republican Rick Snyder.  No numbers just out, yet.

  31.    Coons is the next Senator from Delaware.  But according to the exit polls, Christine O’Donnell WON white voters and only barely lost white women.

  33. I feared the worst and the worst is here.

    It appears Hill and Boucher have lost IN-9 and VA-9 respectively.

    What an umitigated disaster!! We’ll be lucky to have 200 House Dems after the night is over (sob!!)

  38. Rick Scott is winning the I-4 corridor (though not every county in it) and maintaining a lead in Miami-Dade.  Not going to be a rout or anything, but I see him holding on for the wing.

  45. actually looking good so far — White’s up 53-44 with 0.6% reporting (per TX SoS website.)  Bad news, though, is that about half the votes that are in so far are from TX-15 and TX-28, two Dem strongholds.

  46.  Sink is leading by 17 points in Osceola County and 7 points in Orange County. Miami Dade County being tied is worrisome but if these are all early numbers, then we probably have a shot to overcome Scott’s 80,000 vote lead.  

  54.  Early votes give Strickland a 39,000 vote lead in Ohio. That is too little in my opinion. A 21 point lead in Cuyahoga County is not enough.

  55. Unfortunate and frustrating. I interned for the guy last winter, he’s incredible and definitely has a future in politics. I always thought he might try for the governor’s race in 2013 and why not.

    Ironically, his home county of Albemarle is the reason he’s going to lose. All the precincts that have come in there are way under-performing compared to ’08. In his other strongholds, the numbers appeared similar to ’08 percentage-wise but Albemarle is way off the pace.

  57. this is like rossi winning king (in terms of how democratic it is), it doesn’t happen.  it’s both the most democratic county in VT and shumlin’s home county.

  59. Wake County has done most of the reporting tonight, with very little in from Durham and Orange where Price seems to be cleaning up.

  63. really underperforming McCain in North Florida (wonder if all the talk firing government employees hurt him with voters):

    Wakula – 48 Scott, 47 Sink | 61.7 McCain, Obama 36.9

    Gulf and Dixie county shows basically the same thing as above.

    Lafayette – 56 Scott, 39 Sink | McCain 79, Obama 19

    He underperformed McCain in Nassau.

    Scott is doing better in Central Florida, but it’s still early in many of those counties and Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade are all at 0% reporting.

    I am wrong to think Sink is an OK shape here?

  66. Something strange is going on… Politico and NYT called it for Boucher but other organizations are calling it for Griffith. Griffith is up by about 10,000 votes right now.

  70. In TX-23, the Texas SoS is currently showing Quico Canseco in… third place, at 22%, with independent candidate Craig Stephens getting 35%.

  78. Might this be a relatively localized thrashing: Midwest, Appalachia, certain parts of the south? Almost like the GOP trying to take back some of what we won in 2006 and 2008? Because the results in the Northeast aren’t too bad outside of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Just looking at CT and MA it’s not too bad.

    Murphy is up, Courtney is cruising, even Niki Tsongas is up 61-37, and Keating leads by two in MA-10. The margins aren’t spectacular, but they aren’t awful either.

  94. but I am most certainly ALARMED!!!

    The spread of the lossess and trends are just brutal. At this rate, we are most certainly going to fall below 200 and to just over 190 seats.

    Sweet Jesus, what a mess!  

  96.  Massachusetts, we are doing well right now. We are leading by 16 in Middlesex while Coakley won there by about 3 or 5. Also, we are winning Bristol County which Coakley lost.  

  108.  Although the Cook County lead may be not what we want (I think 30 points is enough) but also Giannoulis seems to be winning some Downstate counties too. He is winning a small county in southern Illinois and the county with E. St. Louis.  

  109. Maes is running in the mid-30s in the CO-Gov exit poll. I think that he really actually did do much better than expected, because I can’t imagine an exit poll sample being that bad.

  110.  And I am NOT saying that because Philadelphia is reporting. For the Governor’s race, Ontarato is leading by 8 points in Luzerne County where Kerry won by 5. Also, Ontarato is leading in Monroe, Bucks and Dauphin counties, all the bellwethers. And we though that Ontarato would lose in that area and make it from it in West Pa.  

  112. Breaking news!  Rand Paul is still boring as hell.

    Also, FL-12 GOP hold.  Never thought it was at risk, but I know it was on a few people’s lists.  Expect a call for FL-02 soon, GOP up nearly 2 to 1

  116. Looking at NYT Governor race you can see all of the districts have come from the western 1/2 of this district (so not Ann Arbor suburbs) meaning it’s hardcore Tea Party. Schauer will come back here.

    Don’t worry until about 50% in. Also, in 2008 Schauer was behind until 86% of vote was in.

  118. Looking at NYT Governor race you can see all of the districts have come from the western 1/2 of this district (so not Ann Arbor suburbs) meaning it’s hardcore Tea Party. Schauer will come back here.

    Don’t worry until about 50% in. Also, in 2008 Schauer was behind until 86% of vote was in.

  119.    They look better than the House, to say the least.  Manchin way outperforming the polls.  Blumenthal also tossed McMahon aside.  Hey Chris Dodd, I love you.  Please don’t run for office again.

  124. Less than 20% of the vote in on ANY race is useless info.  Under 50% is barely of worth. I’ve been doing this since 1982 and I can attest to it.

    We are doing MUCH better than the 60 seat, 70 seat loss predictions.  We were going to lose the house regardless.   I think we will end up in the 40’s.  

    The Senate is as good as could be expected as well, at 9:19 at least.  

  125. Connolly up 1% with 66% reporting. Reminder, he won this by 12% in ’08. I would say Connolly will narrowly hold on as there are 35 precincts left in slightly blue Fairfax County and only 15 left in slightly red Prince William County.

  126. Miller leads in SC-02 by six points with a third of the vote in. Rep. Spratt is just two points behind in SC-05 with half the vote in. Most shockingly, Sheheen leads statewide by seven points, almost a third of the vote in.

  127.    McCain wins by 20% in ’08, Sestak leads by 4% now with 70% of precincts in.  Vote totals look normal.  WTF is going on there?!  The neighboring counties show no such anomaly.  It is a very rural county…WEIRD!!!

     I hope it’s not a boring data entry error.  

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