As we wait for former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) to reveal his plans for the open Senate seat left behind by retiring Republican John Warner, I thought it might be useful to take a look at the track record of Governors who ran for the Senate during the last 10 Congressional elections. By my count, there have been 24 Governors (sitting, retiring, or former) who ran for Senate seats between 1986 and 2006. 15 of them were victorious. Here’s the full list (italics denote a challenge to an incumbent; all other races were open seats):
2004Alaska: Tony Knowles (D), lost by 3% 2002
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaeen (D), lost by 4% Oklahoma: David Walters (D), lost by 21% Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R), won by 10% 2000
Delaware: Tom Carper (D), won by 12% Missouri: Mel Carnahan (D), won by 2% Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D), won by 2% Virginia: George Allen (R), won by 4% 1998
Indiana: Evan Bayh (D), won by 29% Ohio: George Voinovich (R), won by 12% 1996
Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D), lost by 14% Maine: Joe Brennan (D), lost by 6% Massachusetts: William Weld (R), lost by 7% 1994
Missouri: John Ashcroft (R), won by 24% Wyoming: Mike Sullivan (D), lost by 30% 1992
New Hampshire: Judd Gregg (R), won by 3% 1990
(none)1988
Nebraska: Bob Kerrey (D), won by 15% Nevada: Richard Bryan (D), won by 4% Virginia: Chuck Robb (D), won by 42% 1986
Florida: Bob Graham (D), won by 10% Idaho: John Evans (D), lost by 3% Missouri: Kit Bond (R), won by 5% North Carolina: Terry Sanford (D), won by 4% Vermont: Richard Snelling (R), lost by 29%
There was actually a 25th Governor that I did not include: former Massachusetts Governor Endicott Peabody (D), who served for one two-year term in the mid-1960s. Two decades later, he moved to New Hampshire and ran for Senate against Republican incumbent Warren Rudman, losing by a wide 32% margin. But I’m only going to count Governors who ran for the Senate seat of the same state.
Overall, Governors have had a 63% success rate in Senate races over the past 10 cycles, and a similar rate in open seat races. Interestingly, over two-thirds of these Governors with Senatorial ambitions have been Democrats.
Did I miss anyone?
In 2002, former Governor David Walters (D) lost to Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe (R) by 21 points.
Good work, though. Interesting to see these all together like that.
Zell Miller… where would he place here? He’s definitely an interesting case scenario.
63% is an impressive track record although the R’s running in Blue states and the D’s in red states do remind us that governor and senate races have very different dynamics. In particular a candidate can more easily stay away from hot button social issues in a governors race than in a senate race.
Of course Virginia is much more a swing state than Alaska, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Massachusetts, or Wyoming which are the examples above of a governor trying to get cross over appeal against the traditional national nature of the state.
Mark Warner’s 70 percent approval will come down somewhat if/when he gets in but then again you can bleed a lot of support when you start at 70 and still win.
It seems to me that the primary advantage a former governor has is that it is very hard for the opposition to define him or her because he or she is already a known quanity. Against a well funded opponent (which Davis will be if he is the nominee) this is a very important factor.
since i was asking about this the other day. i had suggested that the success rate for governors was very good – and 63% is very good. i’d be interested by a comparison with former house members and maybe at large house members separately, over that same ten year period (the most common jumping off point for senators).
despite governors’ strong support and popularity – the national envirnoment still plays a huge role. if 2008 is a bad year for republicans – gov fruedenthal of wy, gov sebelius of ks, gov napolitano of az would all be strong candidates, but in a bad year for democrats they would all likely lose.
of course national senatorial committees already know this and spend a few days every week on their knees in front of governors begging them to run. of course many governors – who were the big chesse in their home states and don’t like washington dc, say no.
Could you break it down by which seats were challenging incumbents and which ones were open seats?
Alaska- Knowles(D)was running in a ruby red state during a presidential year. Murkowski(R) benifited from Bush’s coattails and Stevens position as chairman of Senate Appropriations committee. Knowles won both of of his governor’s race due to division in the AK GOP party.
Delaware- Carper a multiple statewide vote-getter. was running against an aging Republican Incumbent (Bill Roth) in a blue state during a presidential year.
Florida- Graham- popular former Governor running against a first term US Senator- Paula Hawkins- who narrowly won her first election.
Georgia- Miller- popular former Governor running against a former US Senator Mack Mattingly that lost his seat in 1986.
Idaho- Evans was running against a republican incumbent in a ruby red state.
Indiana- Open Seat- Bayh was a popular former Governor- Rising Star for national office. Republican nominee was the Mayor of Fort Wayne- Paul Helmke.
Maine- Open Seat- Brennen was running against a Rockefeller Republican- Susan Collins.
Massachusetts- Weld – a popular Rockefeller Republican Governor in the middle of the completion of his 2nd term. was running against a popular incumbent in a Solid Blue State.
Missouri- 1986- OPEN SEAT
1994- OPEN SEAT
2000- Republican Incumbent was a Conservative Wingnut- The Deceased Democratic Governor was a popular Governor with bipartisan appeal.
Nebraska- 1988- Kerrey a popular former Governor was running against a Republican incumbent that was appointed to the seat.
1996- OPEN seat- Nelson was a sitting Governor in the middle of his 2nd term.
2000- OPEN Seat- Nelson was a popular former Governor that left office with high approval ratings- Republican nominee was a conservative Republican State AG.
Nevada- 1988- Bryan was a popular sitting Governor- The Republican incumbent- Chich Hecht- was a first termer.
New Hampshire- 1992- OPEN Seat-
2002- OPEN Seat- Republican nominee was a son of a popular former Governor
North Carolina- 1986- OPEN Seat.
Ohio- 1998- OPEN Seat-
Oklahoma- 2002- Walters had negative baggage.
Tennessee- 2002- OPEN seat. Tennessee is a red state.
Vermont- 1986- Democratic Incumbent is a popular political figure.
Virginia- 1988- OPEN seat-
2000- Weak Democratic incumbent.
Wyoming- 1994- OPEN Seat- Republican nominee was a sitting At Large US House Member.
2008- Two former Governors are running for the US Senate- Shaheen(NH) and Warner(VA).
Shaheen(NH)is running against a weak first term Republican incumbent that narrowly defeated her in 2002-Pro GOP year. Since Shaheen’s narrowly loss. NH has became increasingly Democratic. Democrats unseating the Republican incumbent Governor in 2004 and Two Republican incumbent US house members in 2006. NH will be a blue state at the Presidential level. 2008 is a pro Democratic year. Double digit victory for Shaheen(D)
Warner(VA) is running in a open seat election. However Republican has credible candidates- Tom Davis a US House Member from NoVA and Jim Gilmore- a former Governor. VA is a battleground state at the Presidential level.
Warner vs Gilmore race is an easy win for Warner- Gilmore is a wingnut ideologue- Wingnut ideologue loses to a Centrist Moderate.
Warner vs Davis race could be slightly difficut but Warner is strongly favored win. Davis could be portrayed as a Washington insider- Davis is part of the Culture of Corruption. Davis has a voting record that can be scrutinize
Brown-started a campaign for the Senate for 1992, but gave it up to instead run for President.
Askew-started a campaign for the Senate in 1988, but gave it up due to lack of fundraising.
Zell Miller-technically was appointed first, but did win the special election soon after appointment.
Joan Finney (Kansas)-lost the Democratic primary to Jill Docking in 1996
Granted, Mark Warner will win the primary if her runs, but still …
Allen & Carnahan were elected by defeating other former governors. Chuck Robb was VA Gov. from 1977-81, and John Ashcroft was Missouri Gov. from 1984-92.
“Governors are expected to be strong in Senate races. If Governors really were strong candidates for Senate, they’d be winning Senate races 80% of the time, not 63%.”
I guess I look at the record of the past 10 elections, and see Governors in a position of strength, given that they win far more often than they lose–even against incumbent Senators, who are traditionally very difficult to beat. You seem them as underperforming expectations. But I’d have to say, for a Democrat to almost win the Senate in Idaho (Evans), or to make John Kerry sweat feverishly in Massachusetts (Weld), that alone is the power of the Governor’s seat at work.
Governors are almost always much more popular than Senators. In fact, unpopular governors are somewhat rate (the late Gov. Taft of Ohio notwithstanding). In any random encounter between a sitting governor and an incumbent senator, I’d expect the governor to have higher name ID and favorables, possibly much higher. I’d expect in most of those cases that the governor would be favored going in.
Ben Nelson only won by 2%? Chuck Robb only lost by 4%? Those both surprise me.
And then, Chuck Hagel beat Ben Nelson by 14? Kerry only beat Weld by 7? And this John Evans guy in Idaho only lost by 3?
It’s not directly related, but Conrad Burns only losing by 1% surprised me too.
These numbers don’t all tell one story, in fact in some cases they tell opposite stories (Robb and Burns stronger than they should have been, Nelson and Kerry weaker than they should have been), but they’re all surprising to me in one way or another and suggest a little more uncertainty in Senate races than I’d been allowing for.
The House is actually weird in some of the same ways too. Nancy Johnson losing by 10+, Rob Simmons losing by 90 votes, and Shays winning by 3? What’s the logic there?
That would be like Gordon Smith losing by 12, Susan Collins winning by 7, and Norm Coleman going 50-50 with Al Franken. Or, since I kindof expect that, reverse it: Norm Coleman losing by 12, Gordon Smith winning by 7, and Susan Collins going 50-50 with Tom Allen. Why? There’s a lot of difficult-to-account-for variation in some of these election results.