NE-Sen: Clash of the Titans?

According to the Lincoln Journal Star and the Omaha World-Herald, Agriculture Secretary and former Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns will announce his entry into the Republican primary next week for the seat currently held by the departing Senator Chuck Hagel:

It looks like Republican Mike Johanns is ready to come home and run for the U.S. Senate.

Johanns, who is U.S. agriculture secretary, spent part of last week shopping for a home in Omaha, said Michael Kennedy, a Johanns supporter and GOP activist.

The former governor will have a “major announcement” next week, Kennedy said.

“I’m fairly confident Mike’s announcement will be positive for the citizens of Nebraska,” Kennedy said Tuesday night.

Johanns, a popular former Governor, would be the heavyweight in the GOP primary against state Attorney General Jon Bruning, former Representative and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, and businessman Pat Flynn.  He would also prove to be a formidable opponent to former Democratic Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey, who is expected to announce a decision of his own in the very near future.

Kerrey had to have been expecting a tough candidate like Johanns to run against, so I’m not sure if this development will affect his deliberations.  In any event, it looks like the Nebraska Senate race could prove to be a clash of two statewide titans.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

22 thoughts on “NE-Sen: Clash of the Titans?”

  1. If we’re going to label it clash of the titans… I want to see some yelling.  At least some yelling… Come on.  It wouldn’t be epic without a little.

  2. It’s still not good for the Republicans, if Kerrey runs the NRSC will still be forced to dump quite a bit of money to defend the seat. With the massive fundraising gap between the NRSC and the DSCC and the huge disproportional number of Republican senate seats up for grabs compared to Democratic ones, I’m actually look forward to this race

  3. I’ll take your word for it that you’re a democrat – but you consistently predict disaster that even folks like Cook, Rothenburg, and Cilizza don’t for democrats.

    You’re about the only person not officially representing republicans who thinks Schaffer is as strong a candidate as Udall (Schaffer’s lost twice in the last 4 years – do you think Coloradans are warming up to him? Do you think the current environment favors Republicans either in Colorado or nationally?) and now you’re spouting Republican talking points “Kerrey’s moved to NYC (cue the Pace picante sauce NEW YORK CITY!?) to run an experimental left-wing college while Johanns has nobly moved to the wonderful honest city of Washington DC to SERVE as Ag Secretary.  Kerrey won’t run or will get creamed.  Johanns is more popular.”

    What is any of the above based on?  Do you have polling?  “Person on the street” interviews?  How much $$ did Johanns raise for all his races?  How much did Kerrey?  Why do you think Kerrey doesn’t have fire in the belly or energy?  Has he discussed this with you in his quite moments smoking a hookah in Greenwich village?:)

    Buck up, ColoDem, if you’re a dem, we need your energy, too.

  4. Thanks for your thoughtful reply.  I base my belief that Nebraska is a tossup seat on 3 things:
    SPS1.  It’s an open seat and open seats are easier to win than beating incumbents (Sununu may be the one case where that’s not true).  But Coleman, Collins and Smith are all going to be very tough to beat.
    SPS2.  The national environment: The war is the number one issue in NE just like everywhere else and deomcrats have a better position on the war.
    SPS3.  He is 3-0 in high-profile statewide races in NE and even won by a large margin 1994.  And he is a decorated war veteran.  And he served on the Iraq War Commission giving him probably the ideal position to talk about the war – again the number one issue in every state in the U.S.
    SPS4.  Johanns is probably going to have a contentious primary and Kerrey will not.
    These are the facts as I understand them.  I don’t know the polling now.

    Your reasons that you think he will/should lose:
    CD1. A personal source has said he doesn’t have the “fire in the belly.”
    CD2.  You don’t like him or his positions and want someone else to run.
    CD3.  You think Johanns is more popular.
    CD1 is important but without knowing what this person said exactly or how he/she knows Kerrey I don’t know what to make of it or at least I wouldn’t weight it more than SPS1-4.
    CD2 is interesting and may or may not reflect the feelings of some in NE but again it doesn’t seem to relate to his chances of winning, at least not more than SPS1-4.
    CD3 is most relevant of course, but without polling, I don’t know.

    And I worked for McGovern, too…when I was 8 years old.

    1. Someone’s gotta do it. Great social movements, contrary to popular wisdom, are not built on pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking. They are built on careful strategies that eschew — sometimes painfully and at with great discipline — all tactics not likely to work. That’s one very good reason why Gandhi and MLK tried so hard to prevent violence on the parts of their followers.

      We cannot afford to waste effort if we hope to maximize our gains before the pendulum swings.

      I’m pessimistic about Kerrey because that’s my realistic assessment of his chances. Same with LaRocco in Idaho. Many other Senate candidates, on the other hand, I’m very optimistic about, based on objective information.

      Oh, and Nebraska is not the place you want to target if your goal is to drain the other side of money. I don’t know the ad rates in Topeka, but I’m willing to guess you can’t spend $2m statewide if you try. And on top of that, Johanns is likely to have a stronger individual giving list than Kerrey, since he’s run more recently and there is more R money in Nebraska than D. So if they are equally funded more will come from DSCC than NRSC.

  5. 1st of all – then your source has credibility and props to you for getting it right.

    but if it’s true – let’s hope fahey runs since he could conceivably beat a primary-battered johanns.  pure candidates (like the “dreamy” scott kleeb) w/no electoral success are not good candidates in red states.  it becomes a 2nd a or 3rd tier race.

    and i will be the depressed one.

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