Public Policy Polling (PDF) (2/9-13, Tennessee voters, no trendlines):
Bob Corker (R-inc): 41
Phil Bredesen (D): 46
Undecided: 12Bob Corker (R-inc): 50
Jim Cooper (D): 32
Undecided: 18Bob Corker (R-inc): 55
Harold Ford, Jr. (D): 32
Undecided: 14Bob Corker (R-inc): 52
Bart Gordon (D): 29
Undecided: 19Bob Corker (R-inc): 53
Al Gore (D): 38
Undecided: 9Bob Corker (R-inc): 50
Tim McGraw (D): 28
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Clearing the decks on this poll from last week. Unless former Gov. Phil Bredesen (who has crazy 63-19 approvals) makes the race, freshman Sen. Bob Corker looks to be in pretty strong shape. Most of these other names – none of whom I think is seriously considering the race – aren’t especially well known and have middling favorables and are at least half unknown (except Harold Ford, who is despised).
As for Bredesen, while the DSCC would probably be thrilled to have him run, he doesn’t seem very likely, either. In a recent interview, when asked if he’d ever run for office again, he said: “Well, you never say never, but that is not my intention.” But the indispensible Brian Valco digs up an article from a year ago in which Bredesen had this to say about his future plans: “I really like the public sector, and if there are some opportunities there, I’d be open.” So maybe there’s any opening there – though I suspect Bredesen would at best be a Joe Manchin-type candidate. Still, he’d draw resources away from other races, at the very least.
PPP also put out GOP primary numbers (PDF):
Bob Corker (R-inc): 38
“More conservative challenger”: 43
Not sure: 19Bob Corker (R-inc): 50
Marsh Blackburn (R): 30
Undecided: 20Bob Corker (R-inc): 66
Hank Williams, Jr. (R): 13
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.9%)
I personally think a 50-30 margin over an little-known member of the House who hasn’t even come close to announcing a campaign (that would be Blackburn, who represents the 7th CD) is not especially good – nor, of course, are those generic numbers. Hank Williams, Jr., by the way, is the country star, who apparently has said in the past that he’s interested in running for office. Amusingly, PPP also tested country star Tim McGraw in the general – would be kind of awesome if we had a Biggie vs. Tupac-style senate race down in Tennessee between Williams and McGraw.
If it looks like a real opportunity, he may be more inclined to run.
Upon seeing +5%.
This seems a lot like a Joe Manchin-type situation, where a moderate Democratic governor who is very popular initially looks like a strong favorite to win, but once the campaign starts and they are forced to deal more with national issues (HCR, Stimulus, other Obama policies), their standing in the polls go much down. Remember that Manchin had an overwhelming advantage over his opponents early on, but that later shrunk, and in the end if he had been running against someone like Shelley Moore Capito instead of John Raese he might have lost. Corker is definitely more of a Capito-type candidate than a Raese-type candidate, and he is a sitting senator instead of a candidate for an open seat so I think this race is still Lean R if Bredesen runs. However, if a right-winger takes out Corker, I think Bredesen would have at least even odds to win.
that the primary poll shows Corker trailing a “more conservative challenger,” but shows him winning pretty handily against a named challenger who is far more conservative than he is.
How well known is she in TN? I don’t see it in the X-tabs.
If she’s a good a politico as they think, she should be able to take Corker down.
When a Republican gets within even 10 points of a Dem in a blue state, you get the concern chorus here about how that Dems chances may be numbered. You get a Democrat topping a Republican in a red state outside the margin of error and the same chorus is much the same for Democratic chances. This is a ridiculous culture, here.
Marsha Blackburn Voted FOR:
Omnibus Appropriations, Special Education, Global AIDS Initiative, Job Training, Unemployment Benefits, Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations, Agriculture Appropriations, FY2004 Foreign Operations Appropriations, U.S.-Singapore Trade, U.S.-Chile Trade, Supplemental Spending for Iraq & Afghanistan, Flood Insurance Reauthorization , Prescription Drug Benefit, Child Nutrition Programs, Surface Transportation, Job Training and Worker Services, Agriculture Appropriations, Foreign Aid, Debt Limit Increase, Fiscal 2005 Omnibus Appropriations, Vocational/Technical Training, Supplemental Appropriations, UN “Reforms.” Patriot Act Reauthorization, CAFTA, Katrina Hurricane-relief Appropriations, Head Start Funding, Line-item Rescission, Oman Trade Agreement, Military Tribunals, Electronic Surveillance, Head Start Funding, COPS Funding, Funding the REAL ID Act (National ID), Foreign Intelligence Surveillance, Thought Crimes “Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act, Peru Free Trade Agreement, Economic Stimulus, Farm Bill (Veto Override), Warrantless Searches, Employee Verification Program, Body Imaging Screening, Patriot Act extention.
Marsha Blackburn Voted AGAINST:
Ban on UN Contributions, eliminate Millennium Challenge Account, WTO Withdrawal, UN Dues Decrease, Defunding the NAIS, Iran Military Operations defunding Iraq Troop Withdrawal, congress authorization of Iran Military Operations, Withdrawing U.S. Soldiers from Afghanistan.
Marsha Blackburn is my Congressman.
See her “blatantly unconstitutional” votes at :
http://mickeywhite.blogspot.co…
Mickey
She represents CD7 in West TN, which was helpfully gerrymandered by D’s in 2000 so as to connect the GOP suburbs of 3 metro areas (Memphis, Clarksville, and Nashville) and the rural areas in between. Now that the GOP controls redistricting and Blackburn’s adjacent Dem congressmen are gone (John Tanner and Lincoln Davis), her district will likely get slightly less red, maybe lose one metro area, but will probably not change very much.
To politicos, she’s known as a rabid conservative who infuriates liberals and who has some issues with compliance: she hires family members to file her reports, then gets hit with a bunch of FEC complaints (nothing fatal there. Just hire a pro, folks!). She’s mostly unknown to GOP voters outside her district, including the heavily GOP areas of East TN (home to Corker). Given her success in a large red district, base near 3 of the 6 biggest TN cities, and strong conservative record, she could run a formidable campaign to Corker from the right.
However, she seems pretty close to GOP leadership (Wikipedia and her official bio says that she served as Deputy Whip at some point, I’m not sure when). She’s relatively young (58) and turned down statewide races for the last few cycles. She’s probably waiting for Alexander to retire, or some other, more establishment, route to bigger things. Taking on Corker would be a major intra-party fight and there’s nothing in her record that indicates that she’s itching for that.
Also, Wikipedia tells me that after initially backing Romney in 2007, she switched to Fred Thompson, which just sounds like one TN GOP helping out another. I doubt anyone cares about that now.
Finally, my favorite factoid about Blackburn is that she used to be an image consultant, and a fairly good-looking one at that: http://www.nashvillescene.com/…