Tag: Jim Cooper

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (2/9-13, Tennessee voters, no trendlines):

Bob Corker (R-inc): 41

Phil Bredesen (D): 46

Undecided: 12

Bob Corker (R-inc): 50

Jim Cooper (D): 32

Undecided: 18

Bob Corker (R-inc): 55

Harold Ford, Jr. (D): 32

Undecided: 14

Bob Corker (R-inc): 52

Bart Gordon (D): 29

Undecided: 19

Bob Corker (R-inc): 53

Al Gore (D): 38

Undecided: 9

Bob Corker (R-inc): 50

Tim McGraw (D): 28

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Clearing the decks on this poll from last week. Unless former Gov. Phil Bredesen (who has crazy 63-19 approvals) makes the race, freshman Sen. Bob Corker looks to be in pretty strong shape. Most of these other names – none of whom I think is seriously considering the race – aren’t especially well known and have middling favorables and are at least half unknown (except Harold Ford, who is despised).

As for Bredesen, while the DSCC would probably be thrilled to have him run, he doesn’t seem very likely, either. In a recent interview, when asked if he’d ever run for office again, he said: “Well, you never say never, but that is not my intention.” But the indispensible Brian Valco digs up an article from a year ago in which Bredesen had this to say about his future plans: “I really like the public sector, and if there are some opportunities there, I’d be open.” So maybe there’s any opening there – though I suspect Bredesen would at best be a Joe Manchin-type candidate. Still, he’d draw resources away from other races, at the very least.

PPP also put out GOP primary numbers (PDF):

Bob Corker (R-inc): 38

“More conservative challenger”: 43

Not sure: 19

Bob Corker (R-inc): 50

Marsh Blackburn (R): 30

Undecided: 20

Bob Corker (R-inc): 66

Hank Williams, Jr. (R): 13

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I personally think a 50-30 margin over an little-known member of the House who hasn’t even come close to announcing a campaign (that would be Blackburn, who represents the 7th CD) is not especially good – nor, of course, are those generic numbers. Hank Williams, Jr., by the way, is the country star, who apparently has said in the past that he’s interested in running for office. Amusingly, PPP also tested country star Tim McGraw in the general – would be kind of awesome if we had a Biggie vs. Tupac-style senate race down in Tennessee between Williams and McGraw.

• CT-Sen: The Chris Murphy/Susan Bysiewicz primary still could turn into a chaotic battle royale, based on this week’s indications. Rep. Joe Courtney is “leaning toward” the run (although that’s not Courtney’s own words, just another insider’s interpretation), and says he’ll have a decision soon. Ted Kennedy Jr. also doesn’t have anything official to say, but he does seem to be stepping up his appearances around the state, including one in Bridgeport next week. One Dem we can probably rule out, though, is former state Treasurer and former Hartford deputy mayor Frank Borges, who disputed reports that he was looking into the race. Here’s also one other Republican who might make the race who seems to have access to big fundraising pools, although it seems like he’d be starting in a big name rec hole against, say, Linda McMahon: state Sen. L. Scott Frantz, who represents wealthy Greenwich in the state’s southwestern tip.

• MI-Sen: After sounding pretty thoroughly disinterested in his few public comments about the possibility of a Michigan Senate race, ex-Rep. and 2010 gubernatorial primary loser Peter Hoekstra is now publicly expressing some interest. He says that he’s “considering it” and will make a decision in a few months. There’s also a poll out of the GOP primary from GOP pollster Strategic National (no word on whose behalf the poll was taken) showing Hoekstra well in the lead, which may be prompting him to get more interested: he’s at 33, with Terry Lynn Land at 15 and Saul Anuzis at all of 1, with 50% still undecided.

• ND-Sen: Rep. Rick Berg has been mentioned often as a potential GOP candidate for the open seat being vacated by Kent Conrad, and chatter seems to indicate the local party seems to have him at the top of the list in terms of someone to unite behind to avoid a divisive primary. Moving from the House to the Senate after only one term is still a pretty unusual move (although it may be less momentous in an at-large state). (In fact, here’s a trivia question for you all, for which I don’t know the answer: who was the last person to successfully jump to the Senate after only one term in the House? I can’t even think of a one-termer getting his party’s nomination since 1994, when Dem Sam Coppersmith ran and lost an open seat race in Arizona to Jon Kyl.) There’s one other name bubbling up to add to the list of the ten-or-more Republicans already listed as possible candidates: Fargo-area state Sen. Tony Grindberg.

• NE-Sen: You might remember that the mysterious GOP dark money group American Future Fund ran some radio ads in North Dakota last month and Kent Conrad was announcing his retirement within a few weeks after that? Not that there’s likely a causal relationship there, but maybe they’re feeling like lightning might strike twice, and now they’re running a similar ad against Ben Nelson in Nebraska.

• TX-Sen: San Antonio mayor Julian Castro had already given some vague statements of not intending to run for the Democratic nomination for the open Senate seat, but put a finer point on that today by announcing that he’s kicking off his campaign for a second term as mayor. One Republican who has expressed some interest in the race but doesn’t seem likely to run is Rep. Mike McCaul from TX-10; the likelier scenario, at least according to one expert, is that McCaul plans to run for state Attorney General in 2014, which will probably be vacated by current occupant Greg Abbott moving up to the Lt. Governor slot, presuming that David Dewhurst either becomes Senator or doesn’t run again in ’14.

• UT-Sen: You thought that Hasselbeck vs. Cromartie Twitter fight was exciting? That’s got nothing on a good social media smackdown between rival right-wing astroturfers Club for Growth and Tea Party Express. In the wake of TPX head Sal Russo’s comments yesterday praising Orrin Hatch, CfG just dissed TPX, saying they seem “to like Hatch’s record in support of TARP, earmarks…” Roll Call has more on the Club’s plans to go aggressively after Hatch. Russo also seems like he’s getting undercut by his fellow TPX leader, Amy Kremer, who says that Hatch isn’t off the hook yet and will be under their microscope for the cycle.

• VA-Sen: Jamie Radtke, the only person in the race so far offering a challenge from the right to presumed GOP frontrunner George Allen, let everyone know yesterday where she’d stand, putting in an appearance at the initial unveiling of the Senate Tea Party caucus (and its four members… or five if you count Pat Toomey, who was willing to speak to them but not join). Other interesting reading regarding Virginia is this profile of Jim Webb which doesn’t offer many surprises but is a good overview of his ambivalence about the Senate race is pretty much in keeping with everything else about him. And buried in another boilerplate article is a pretty sharp smack at Allen from a fellow GOPer and the last person to successfully pivot from getting bounced out of the Senate to winning a later race (in 1988), Slade Gorton. Gorton says Allen, to win, will first need to apologize to voters, saying “I don’t see anything from him about how he screwed up, even though he did.”

• LA-Gov: See you later, Al Ater. After some semi-encouraging statements about a possible candidacy, the Democratic former Secretary of State now says he won’t run for Governor this year. That still leaves the Dems without any sort of candidate to go against Bobby Jindal, with the clock definitely starting to tick louder.

• WV-Gov: Don’t get too comfortable with the idea of a primary to pick the gubernatorial candidates in West Virginia (tentatively set for June 20); the legislature still has to enact that and there are some grumblings that it might not happen because of the expense involved, which would mean party conventions instead. That could give a boost to one of the less-known Democratic candidates who have stronger relations to organized labor, like House speaker Rick Thompson or treasurer John Perdue. The article also mentions a few other Republicans whose names are emerging in the race, most notably Putnam Co. Prosecutor Mark Sorasia (who’ll be participating in an upcoming candidate forum), also mentioning former state Sen. Steve Harrison and state Del. Troy Andes.

• CT-05: The dance cards in the 5th district are definitely filling up. On the Democratic side, Audrey Blondin is saying that she’ll run; she’s a former Selectwoman from Litchfield, a member of the state party committee, and briefly ran for SoS in 2005. Also considering the Democratic primary is J. Paul Vance, the former leader of the Waterbury board of aldermen and a narrow loser to Michael Jarjura in the 2009 Dem mayoral primary. On the Republican side, Mike Clark is in; he’s Farmington town council chair but he’s best known for leading the FBI team that took down corrupt Gov. John Rowland, and was on Tom Foley’s LG short-list. Several other possible names on the Republican field that are mentioned include state Sen. Kevin Witkos, Torrington mayor Ryan Bingham, and one possible heavyweight in the field (and the guy who actually was Foley’s running mate), Danbury mayor Mark Boughton.

• FL-25: Freshman Rep. David Rivera seems to be in a world of trouble, with an entirely new angle on his corruption arising courtesy of an AP investigation: he paid himself nearly $60K in “unexplained” campaign reimbursements during his eight years in the state legislature. Between that and the already mounting investigation by Florida authorities and the FEC into potential payoffs from a dog track, there’s apparently growing discontent with him behind the scenes in Republican leadership, who may be feeling pressure to make an example out of him as part of their “drain the swamp” promises (although Ethics Committee rules prevent them from using that vehicle, since they can’t take up matters that are already under criminal investigation). Rumors persist that both parties are already sounding out candidates for a potential special election. He isn’t getting much public support from John Boehner, whose only on-the-record comments are that he’s taking a wait-and-see attitude on how things unfold.

• WI-01: Is this just a bit of monkeying around with Paul Ryan now that he’s temporarily a celebrity, or are Dems seriously thinking about making a target out of him now that he’s more notorious? (He’s in what’s currently an R+2 district, certainly within reach in a Dem-friendly year with a good candidate, and leads veteran House Republicans in terms of ideological out-of-whackness with his district lean… though that may have changed with the newest crop of teabaggers) At any rate, mailers are being sent out to voters in his district, having a bit of sport with his Medicare-voucherization proposals.

• Chicago mayor: We Ask America is out with another poll of the Chicago mayoral race (taken during the brief period when it looked like Rahm Emanuel might have been off the ballot). It looks like, as speculated, the whole debacle may have actually increased sympathy for Emanuel (with 72% of respondents saying his name should stay on the ballot), as this is the first poll to show him over the magic 50% mark that would help him avoid a runoff. He’s at 52, with Gerry Chico at 14, Carol Mosely Braun at 11, and Miguel del Valle at 4. It also provides support for the theory that Chico, not Mosely Braun, would have been the chief beneficiary if Emanuel had gotten kicked off, as Chico led a Rahm-free option at 33, with Mosely Braun at 17 and del Valle at 7 (with 38 undecided).

• Nassau Co. Exec: This may pretty much spell doom for any future political efforts by Republican Nassau Co. Exec Ed Mangano, who was elected in a narrow upset over Tom Suozzi in 2009. Mangano has, since then, closely stuck to the teabagger/underpants gnome playbook of governance (step 1: cut taxes; step 2: ???; step 3: profit!), and lo and behold, found his county government insolvent. The state government has been forced to step in and seize control of the finance in the county on Long Island, one of the nation’s wealthiest.

• Redistricting: I can’t see this going anywhere legislatively even if Dems still held the majority (and I’m not sure it would pass constitutional muster anyway), but Heath Shuler and Jim Cooper are introducing legislation in the House that would switch every state away from partisan redistricting to requiring use of a five-person bipartisan commission. (They’re picking up the flag from fellow Blue Dog John Tanner, for whom this was a personal hobby horse for many years until he recently left the House, but they may also have some personal stake in wanting this to succeed, seeing as how they suddenly find themselves in states where the Republicans now control the trifecta.) Also, the public rumblings of worry from prominent Republicans about how the GOP isn’t financially or mentally prepared for this round of redistricting (something that seems dramatically out of character for them) seem to keep coming, this time from Ed Gillespie.

• Voting: Montana seems to be taking a cue from its nearby neighbors Oregon and Washington, and moving toward a vote-by-mail system. The measure cleared the House and will soon move to the state Senate. Despite the fact that the GOP controls that chamber and this was a Democratic bill, there was enough Republican support to move it forward. (Studies have shown that vote-by-mail tends to noticeably increase participation by traditionally-Democratic constituencies that ordinarily aren’t very likely voters.)

Tennessee Statewide

Governor: Bill Haslam R v. Mike McWherter (OPEN)

Safe R

Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam is going to absolutely crush Jackson businessman Mike McWherter on November 2nd. The son of Ned Ray McWherter was mistakenly allowed a free pass in the Democratic Primary, after which he proved himself to be completely inept and unqualified to be running for Governor, with only his father’s legacy and last name to recommend him. Haslam in contrast proved himself to an adept campaigner and by far the most qualified candidate in both the primary and general elections. While McWherter has run arguably the worst campaign of any credible candidate in Tennessee history, while Haslam has run perhaps the best organized and executed in the state’s history. On Election Day the most qualified and deserving candidate will be elected Governor of Tennessee, and in this instance it will be a Republican.

Tennessee Congressional Delegation

TN-3: Chuck Fleischmann R v. John Wolfe (OPEN)

Safe R

Fleischmann is going to easily win this Republican leaning district by a 2-1 margin over the under-funded Democrat, John Wolfe. No analysis needed.

TN-4: Scott DesJarlais  R v. Lincoln Davis D (i)

Tossup

A month ago I would have argued that Davis would be favored over a Republican who would be second-tier in most any other cycle, but recent polling in the district and prevailing national trends have moved this race into tossup territory. If I had to wager I would still bet on Davis as the incumbent, but DesJarlais has about made the odds 50/50 that he will be going to Washington.

TN-5:  David Hall R v. Jim Cooper D (i)

Likely D

Cooper is favored to win his district, despite Republican hopes to the contrary, by a less than comfortable margin over Republican David Hall. It probably won’t be a win as large as Cooper is used to racking up, but he has done the minimal amount of work necessarily to probably avoid some fluke upset in even the largest of Republican waves. While Hall winning cannot be completely discounted, Cooper is clearly favored as a incumbent in a Democratic leaning district.

TN-6:  Diane Black R v.  Brett Carter D (OPEN)

Safe R

Diane Black will likely win this district by a roughly 2-1 margin. No Democrat seriously had a shot at holding this seat this cycle except for Bart Gordon.

TN-8: Stephen Fincher R v. Roy Herron D (OPEN)

Likely R

Roy Herron was never the best Democrat to run for this seat. He hails from a safe State Senate district where he had never faced serious challenges during his long political career (House or Senate), and his political abilities were severely overrated – as I have mentioned in previous posts. Fincher on the other hand won a hard fought campaign and proved his mettle in the most expensive primary in the nation. The 8th has become extremely hostile to the Democratic brand since the election of President Obama, and it would have taken an older ultra-conservative Democrat like former House Transportation Chairman Phillip Pinion (Union City) or a geographically advantaged and youthful conservative Democrat like Lowe Finney (Jackson) to beat the weakest and most generic of Republicans this cycle. So despite serious questions over Fincher’s campaign finance disclosures and a questionable campaign loan from a local bank, Fincher has ridden out the General Election refusing to answer these serious questions or debate with little detrimental effect.  A majority of the electorate is just not inclined this year to send another conservative Democrat to Washington, and Stephen Fincher as flawed and unqualified candidate as he is, appears almost certain to go to Washington as the 8th District’s next Congressman.

Best Case Scenario: 6R-3D (-2 D)

Worst Case Scenario: 7R-2D (-3D)

Tennessee House

TN-2: Tony Shipley R (i) v. Nathan Vaughn D

Lean R

In this 2008 rematch Democrat Nathan Vaughn is trying to regain his House seat from Republican Tony Shipley. This district bucked the Republican inclination of East Tennessee in 2002 by not only electing a Democrat, but an conservative African-American Democrat. Shipley ran a really nasty campaign and upset Vaughn in a race that he took for granted.  Shipley has to be favored in this environment, but Vaughn can’t be wrote off out of hand as he is a known quantity and Shipley has a habit of making crazy statements.

TN-4: Jerome Cochran R v. Kent Williams I (i)- Speaker of the House

Lean I

In a 3rd rematch of these two, former Representative Jerome Cochran attempts yet again to knockoff the man, Kent Williams,  who beat him in the 2006 and 2008 in Republican Primaries, and went on to become Speaker of the House in league with the House Democrats in 2008. Since then Williams has had to become an Independent, and thus the rematch moves to the General Election setting. Williams is favored, but not out the woods.

TN- 10: Don Miller R v.  Larry Mullins D (OPEN)

Tossup

This seat was opened up after Democrat John Litz decided against running for re-election. This is a district in traditional Republican East Tennessee, based around Morristown/Hamblen County.  This district leans Republican, but has some Democratic base to rely on as an old industrial town. In an open seat scenario the seat should lean Republican, but the Democrat is competent and has a fighting shot, so it’s hard to rank it worse than a toss-up.

TN-11: Jeremy Faison R v. Eddie Yokley D (i)

Lean D

Eddie Yokley has successfully held his seat through two tough re-election challenges since 2004, and in light of that fact he has to be slightly favored to win re-election in this naturally Republican leaning district due to his ability to have won and held the seat in any cycle.

TN-32: Julia Hurley R v. Dennis Ferguson D (i)

Likely D

TN-33: John Ragan R v. Jim Hackworth D (i)

Likely D



TN-36: Dennis Powers R v. Keith Clotfelter D (i) (OPEN)

Lean R

This seat was opened up after Dennis Powers upset a first-term Republican incumbent, and now faces Democrat Keith Clotfelter. The district leans Republican, but some Democratic base exists to work with in the right cycle/environment. However, this district has been represented by a Republican for a long time, so it’s hard to see it swinging to a Democrat due to any lingering divisions from the Republican Primary.

TN-38: Kelly Keisling R v. Leslie Winningham D (i)

Likely D

TN-39: David Alexander R v. George Fraley D (i)

Tossup

This traditionally Democratic rural Middle Tennessee district is an area where being a Republican was still an unfeasible political affiliation until recently. George Fraley is a poplar Democrat, problem is that he advancing in age and perhaps should have thought about retiring last cycle. Lingering doubts about Fraley open him up to defeat by his capable Republican opponent, David Alexander. This race will boil down to whether the electorate has faith in Fraley’s ability to serve one more term.

TN-40: Terry Lynn Weaver R (i) v. James Hale D

Lean R

This rural Middle Tennessee district that was traditionally Democratic until it was opened up by a retirement in 2008. During that cycle the Democrat who emerged from the primary ran an abysmal and lazy campaign where “this has always been Democratic district” mentality cost the Democrats a winnable seat. Weaver as an incumbent in this environment is favored, but the Democrat is capable and has an outside chance to win.

TN-41: Patrick McCurdy R v. John Mark Windle D (i)

Likely D

TN-42: Ryan Williams R v. Henry Fincher D (i)

Lean D

Fincher has held this district since 2006, but has never faced a Republican in a general election. So while he is favored, his lack of political testing has to be an area of concern.

TN-44: Matt Wynn R v. Mike McDonald D (i)

Likely D

TN-46: Mark Pody R v. Stratton Bone D (i)

Toss Up

This district is based around Lebanon and eastern Wilson County, and is part of the Nashville metro that is seeing suburban/exurban growth and trending Republican. In this environment an entrenched Democrat like Stratton Bone could be upset due to changing demographics combined with an awful political environment finally flipping the seat.

TN-48: Joe Carr R (i) v. David B. LaRouche

Likely R

A traditional Democratic seat in Murfreesboro/Rutherford County, aka metro Nashville, that was won by Republican Joe Carr in an open seat scenario in 2008. This type of district is trending away from its Democratic roots, so it’s hard to see how the Republican can lose it this cycle.

TN-49: Mike Sparks R v. Kent Coleman D (i)

Toss Up

Another Murfreesboro/Rutherford County seat, but here an entrenched Democrat, Kent Coleman, faces a serious race where his votes in Judiciary Committee open him up to attack over all sorts of hot button issues. Rutherford County shifted Republican on the County level in August, and that does not bode well for Coleman.

TN-60: Jim Gotto R v. Sam Coleman D (OPEN)

Toss Up

A Metro Nashville/Davidson County seat long held by a conservative Democrat, Ben West, is the only open seat in friendly Democratic territory. This race is between two locally well known councilmen who know their way around politics and campaigns. This seat should lean D as Obama won the district; but Gotto is a strong candidate running a strong campaign in a Republican year, so he has a solid chance of beating the odds and picking up a Democratic leaning seat.



TN-64: Sheila Butt R v. Ty Cobb D (i)

Lean D

Ty Cobb unseated a Republican incumbent in 2008 by a hefty margin to regain a traditionally Democratic seat, as one of the few highlights for Democrats on election night for that cycle. Now he faces a far weaker opponent on paper, but a much worse economic (GM’s Spring Hill plant is in this district) and political environment, despite this Cobb should be capable of holding his seat.

Tn-65: Billy Spivey v. Eddie Bass (i)

Likely D

TN-66: Josh Evans R (i) v. Billy Carneal D

Lean R

Evans won this long-held Democratic seat in 2008 after a hard-fought race where the Democratic incumbent suffered a heart-attack and was taken out of action late in the campaign. Evans is not the strongest candidate Republicans could ask for, and faces a tough opponent in the Mayor of Springfield, Billy Carneal; but at the end of the day he has to be slightly favored as the incumbent.

TN-67: Neil Revlett  R v. Joe Pitts D (i)

Likely D

TN-69: Wayne White R v. David Shepard D (i)

Likely D

TN-75: Tim Wirgau R v. Butch Borchert D (i)

Lean R

Butch Borchert is in his 4th term serving this rural mainly West Tennessee based district. He faces an extremely strong and competent opponent in Republican Tim Wirgau, who nearly beat Borchert in 2008. Borchert is another aging Democrat who faces questions about his ability to serve another term.  Wirgau has the geographic base (Henry Co.) to finish off Borchert this cycle due to the probably lower turn-out in his base counties (Benton, Stewart).

TN-76: Andrew Holt R v. Mark Maddox D (i)

Likely D



Mark Maddox is noted only because he hails from Weakley County, the home county of Roy Herron and Ned McWherter. He faces a novice political neophyte in Andrew Holt, who in a normal cycle would be a token opponent; but in this cycle, where long-term incumbents are facing a backlash and the top of the ticket is a disaster, an upset here would be a huge deal. If Maddox was to be beaten, the Democrats statewide in the House will have likely lost upwards of 10 seats.

TN-77: Bill Sanderson R v. Judy Barker D (i)

Lean D

Judy Barker won a hard-fought and extremely close race in an open seat against Bill Sanderson in 2008. Barker is arguably the hardest campaigner in Tennessee and won’t go down without a fight. She has voted her district and has an extremely solid support throughout Republican and Democratic circles in the district. If the “say and do anything” to get elected Bill Sanderson was to win on election night, it will be due to the R next to his name swaying low information voters, not because the district’s voters thought he was the better candidate.

TN-79: Curtis Halford R (i) v. Joe Shepard D

Toss Up

This traditionally Democratic district has been Republican since 2002, and was recently won in a close race by Republican Curtis Halford in 2008. Had Joe Shepard run in 2008 he would have certainly won, as he served as Gibson County Sheriff for 20 years and just finished as County Mayor in 2010. Gibson County accounts for roughly 4/5 of the district’s population, so Shepard has a clear advantage.  However, now he faces a moderate incumbent who is fairly acceptable to a voter of any stripe, but is a very weak campaigner on the ground. The southern portions of Gibson are booming with affluent suburbanites leaving Jackson for the public schools of the exurb of Medina, while the Carroll County part of the district has a fairly strong Republican inclination. These factors play well for Halford, but if Shepard can win a big enough margin outside of Medina and Carroll County he is the best chance for a Democratic pick-up of the cycle.

TN-80: Mark Johnstone R v. Johnny Shaw D (i)

Lean D

This horribly drawn district was drawn to create a rural African-American majority district. It has been represented by Johnny Shaw since 2000, a conservative African American Democrat who represents a district encompassing most of the city of Jackson/half of Madison County, and portions of Hardeman County. This district has changed dramatically since 2002, as its northern Madison County portion has become suburbanized with white affluent professionals. Many of these voters are not keen on Democrats, and even less on African American Democrats after the election of President Obama. Johnny Shaw is conservative enough that he should win such a district one last time until redistricting, but if the AA vote doesn’t turn out, then his “say anything to get elected” opponent, Mark Johnstone, has a solid shot of eking out the narrowest of wins.



TN-81: Jim Hardin R v. Jimmy Naifeh D (i) Former Democratic Speaker of the House

Lean D

Speaker Naifeh has faced tough races in the past (2002, 2004), as half of his district (Tipton Co.) is trending Republican via suburban growth fueled by migration increases out of Memphis. However, in the past he has been able to leverage his possession of the Speakership and deep roots to Tipton County to blunt Republican challengers in his home county, while leveraging Haywood County’s minority-majority base of Democratic voters as a reserve to bolster his election night results.  Jim Hardin though is posed to upset the former Speaker, as Naifeh no longer has the Speakership, nor can he count on AA turnout in his district to bolster his numbers. While Naifeh remains slightly favored, his destiny is tied to his GOTV operations.

TN-82: Johnny Edwards R v. Craig Fitzhugh D (i)

Lean D

Craig Fitzhugh represents one of the strongest Democratic districts in rural West Tennessee – in normal years. Unfortunately, half his district is Crockett County, home of TN-8 Republican nominee, Stephen Fincher, where traditional Democrats will overwhelmingly support Fincher. Fitzhugh has to win a large margin out of Lauderdale County (his home county), hope to win his portion of Dyer County, and then rest his hopes on Fincher not carrying Edwards to a huge victory in Crockett.  Fitzhugh is favored as the incumbent, but an upset is very possible under the right conditions.

TN-93: Tim Cook R v. Mike Kernell D (i)

Likely D



Kernell should never be in trouble in his Democratic leaning Memphis district, but he is always on the radar for the fluke upset. Why? The simple answer that while he is competent and a nice guy, he often comes across as “a weird dude in a suit who just emerged from a nap in a dumpster”. In other words his appearance and communication skills are sometimes lacking. The right Republican in the right year could upset Kernell, and this looks like a year where the stars could finally align for just such an upset. With that said, Kernell will most likely win because of the lean of his district, but his “uniqueness” is a persistent marketing problem.

Best Case Scenario: 53R-45D-1I (-3D)

Worst Case: 63R-36D (-12D, -1I)

Tennessee Senate

TN-7: Stacey Campfield R v. Randy Walker D

Lean R

Stacey Campfield is extremely well known for his radical and far-right wing antics in the State House since winning office in 2004. He is a completely polarizing figure who has somehow managed to defeat repeated better funded Republican primary challengers due to his persistent ability to work the ground game. Now he is posed to move up to the Senate, but faces one last opponent in Democrat Randy Walker. Campfield is favored due to the strong Republican lean of this Knox County district, but the possibility that this larger electorate might prefer a one-term Democrat over the extremely controversial Campfield cannot be ruled out.

TN-13: Bill Ketron R (i) v. Debbie Mathews D

Likely R

TN-15: Gary Steakley R v. Charlotte Burks D (i)

Likely D

TN-17: Mae Beavers R (i) R v. George McDonald D

Lean R

Mae Beavers is another polarizing figure in Republican politics, and has burned some bridges over local issues within her Senate District. Democrat George McDonald has raised significant funds and worked the ground game sufficiently to stand an outside chance of winning the race by exploiting voter discontent over Beaver’s habit of putting ideological purity over the needs of the district. Beavers as the incumbent is favored, but this seat poses the best chance of a Democrat knocking an incumbent Senator.

TN-21: Steven Dickerson R v. Douglas Henry D (i)

Lean D

One of the last Democratic warhorses of the State Senate faces a serious challenge in keeping his affluent Nashville Senate District.  None the less, Henry has to be favored to win one last term despite his advanced age.

TN-25:  Jim Summerville R v. Doug Jackson D (i)

Likely D

TN-27: Don McCleary R v. Lowe Finney D (i)

Lean D

In 2006, party-switching Republican Don McLeary lost this Jackson centered State Senate seat to Lowe Finney in an extremely close and hard fought race. Now in 2010, after be humiliating in a Republican Primary for County Mayor of Madison County (Jackson) in 2007, the severely “brand damaged” McLeary has re-emerged to attempt to retake his old seat.  Lowe Finney though has strong ties to the Republican leaning professional class in the affluent sections of North Jackson, cutting into the natural Republican base McLeary has to lock up in order to overcome the more Democratic leaning counties of the district (Gibson and Carroll). Internal polling released by Finney on October 25 showed him winning 51-44, which syncs up the with the massive and almost exclusively negative media campaign McLeary has waged up until Election Day – a sure sign of a trailing campaign. Finney is favored as the well-liked incumbent, while McLeary’s hopes hinge on the R next to his name carrying him across the line with low-information voters.

TN-29: Robert Hill R v. Ophelia Ford D (i)

Likely D



Ophelia Ford apparently suffers from severe personal/health problems, which keeps her from showing up to vote in the Legislature very much over the last several years. These problems aren’t stopping her from seeking re-election as the entitled member of the crumbling Ford family political machine that used to dominate much of the Memphis vote. She won a controversial special election and recount in 2005 to replace her brother John Ford after his conviction for bribery; an election in which she lost on Election Day, but won after enough votes were found via the recount to squeak out a win.  Ford is favored, but she is facing an African-American Republican, Robert Hill, who has a solid argument that he would better serve the district by just showing up to work in Nashville on a regular basis.

Best Case Scenario:  18R-15D (+1D)

Worst Case Scenario: 20R-13D (-1D)

• CT-Sen: CQ looks at how Rob Simmons has been consolidating all of the establishment support in the GOP primary, despite it being a crowded field: he just got the endorsement of state House #2 GOPer (and former state party chair) Bill Hamzy. He’s also endorsed by state House minority leader Larry Cafero and 20 members of the state party’s central committee. Meanwhile, looking all the way ahead to 2012, Alec Baldwin backed down from earlier provocative statements, saying that he doesn’t actually intend to run against Joe Lieberman.

• FL-Sen: Another indicator of a bumpy ride for Charlie Crist in the upcoming primary: he lost a straw poll vote among the Bay County GOP to Marco Rubio by the lopsided margin of 23 to 2. Bear in mind, of course, this is the hardcore party activist faithful in one of the state’s most conservative counties in the Panhandle.

• UT-Sen: The Club for Growth has leaped into the circular firing squad in Utah, with a letter-writing campaign targeted at the 3,000+ delegates going to the state GOP’s nominating convention next year. AG Mark Shurtleff and potentially Rep. Jason Chaffetz consider taking out long-time Sen. Bob Bennett, who’s only very conservative and not super-duper-extra conserative.

• CA-Gov: Two separate polls (from little-known local pollsters) of the Democratic gubernatorial primary show San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom way behind ex-Gov. Jerry Brown. Moore Methods finds Brown leading Newson 49-20 statewide among Dems, while David Binder polled only Dems in San Francisco, where Newsom’s support should be its strongest, but finds Brown leading 51-34 even there, with Newsom winning only among the 30-and-under set.

• NJ-Gov: There’s a weird feeling in the air that things may actually be starting to turn around in New Jersey… the main question remains whether Jon Corzine got himself into too deep a hole to dig all the way out in time. A lot of that has to do with the ethical malfeasance spotlight swinging back toward Chris Christie, as possible Hatch Act violations and unreported loans tarnish him, stories that dominated a disastrous Christie conference call with reporters yesterday despite Christie’s intent of using the call to tar Corzine with the Wall Street brush.

But most significantly, there was the poll that came out yesterday from Republican internal pollster Neighborhood Strategies that showed Christie up only 39%-36% over Corzine among “definite” voters, with Chris Daggett at 6% (and 37-35-6 among likely voters). Even more ominously for Christie, the poll found that the undecided electorate “skews heavily to the left.” One big caveat, though: this isn’t Christie’s pollster, but rather a firm run by Rick Shaftan that worked for Christie’s ultra-conservative primary rival Steve Lonegan (it also has a big fat margin of error). Does the Lonegan camp still have an axe to grind? But if they do, how would releasing a juiced poll long after the primary help them out?

• NY-Gov: Tea leaf readers think that Rudy Giuliani is moving closer to running for Governor in 2010. Rudy says he’ll decide within the next 30 to 60 days, but some see his involvement in the state GOP party chair imbroglio as evidence of his desire to have the party machinery working smoothly behind him if he runs. Rudy apparently successfully talked state party chair Joseph Mondello into resigning yesterday, but he still has one more hurdle, steering key ally Henry Wojtaszek into the chairman position instead of the presmued frontrunner for the position, Ed Cox (who was a McCain backer in 2008). (Of course, Giuliani’s most daunting problem would be one he has no control over — getting the Democrats to not force David Paterson out to make way for Andrew Cuomo, who all polls show flattening Giuliani.)

• SC-Gov: The South Carolina GOP is back to talking about impeachment again at their legislative retreat next weekend, as Mark Sanford is at a bit of a low point again, thanks to disclosures about his abuses of state and private planes. Meanwhile, AG Henry McMaster made it official that he’s getting into the gubernatorial race for the GOP, McMaster launched his bid with a swipe at Sanford, saying there’s been too much dishonesty and scandal in the state.

• AL-05: Freshman Rep. Parker Griffith has announced he won’t be voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker again, saying she’s too divisive. Griffith is girding for a difficult first re-election in this R+12 district.

• CA-18: Republicans nailed down a challenger against Dennis Cardoza: Turlock Irrigation Board member Mike Berryhill. This Hispanic-majority district hasn’t seen a competitive race in a long time, but at D+4 isn’t exactly a slam dunk for Dems.

• GA-04: DeKalb County Commissioner Lee May is now considering a primary challenge to Rep. Hank Johnson, in this district that has seen its share of successful primary challenges recently (although both were against Cynthia McKinney). Based on his closeness with DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, it seems like he’d be coming at the very liberal Johnson from the right.

• NE-02: Speaking of primary challenges from the right, here’s one in an unusual place: Nebraska’s 2nd, where Lee Terry is a reliably conservative vote (although he did vote in favor of TARP, and also famously tried to sell himself to Obama-Terry voters last year). Still, he’s facing a possible serious challenge from health care technology company president Matt Sakalosky, who seems to have the money to self-fund. Sakalosky just confirmed he’s in the race and has his first campaign event set for Saturday.

• OH-16: Calling all Arena Football fans! (All 2 of you!) Co-owner of the Columbus Destroyers (and former mayor of Akron suburb Wadsworth) Jim Renacci has filed to take on freshman Dem John Boccieri in the Canton-based R+4 district.

• TN-05: Daily Kos is bird-dogging Blue Dog Jim Cooper, and finds he’s got some mediocre numbers among the folks back home, with 47-41 favorables and a re-elect of 36% (with 41% consider someone else and 23% definitely replace). R2K also finds that he’d lose support among both Dems and independents if he opposed public option.

• TN-09: Mercurial Memphis mayor Willie Herenton says that he won’t, after all, run in the special election to succeed himself, caused by his resignation. Instead, he’ll focus on his primary challenge to Steve Cohen in the 9th, which was the point of his original resignation.

• KY-St. Sen.: There’s a big special election tonight in northeastern Kentucky, where a vacant state Senate seat will be filled. The two candidates are Democrat Robin Webb and Republican Jack Ditty, who are trying to replace GOPer Charlie Borders, who was appointed by Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear to the Public Service Commission. Republicans currently control the Senate 20-16-1 (and this 1 vacancy).