National Democrats have exactly three targets in New Jersey that they would like to seriously contest: Mike Ferguson (7th District), Jim Saxton (3rd District), and Frank LoBiondo (2nd District). In two of those three races, the DCCC has their preferred candidates: state Rep. Linda Stender is in for a rematch against Ferguson, and state Sen. Jim Adler is taking on Saxton. If state Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew entered the race against Republican incumbent Frank LoBiondo, he would complete the trifecta. The only problem? Van Drew is currently locked in a tooth-and-nail campaign against Republican state Sen. Nicholas Asselta, and he has to win that race first before thinking of another promotion.
Van Drew didn’t do much to quiet the speculation today, as he played it coy on the question of a potential 2008 congressional campaign:
“What I’ve made clear is there’s only one thing on my mind now, and that is winning the State Senate seat in the first legislative district,” said Van Drew. “I have a lot of my plate and that’s all I’m thinking about. And that’s all I’m going to comment.”
That non-committal response is in stark contrast to his campaign’s official line last month:
“He’s not running for Congress. He’s got way too much on his plate right now,” said Allison Murphy, who is managing Van Drew’s campaign to oust Asselta. “I can safely say he’s not running next year, but maybe sometime soon.”
Unsurprisingly, Asselta is slamming Van Drew for the statement.
LoBiondo would be a tough foe to beat. His campaign coffers are flush with over $1.5 million on hand and he has always dominated his district by wide margins. Not in his favor, however, is the following fact about his district: its PVI is D+4. While Kerry actually lost the district by one point in 2004, Gore carried it by a healthy 11 point margin in 2000. Rather than changing demographics, we saw a 9/11 bounce for Bush that was pronounced throughout New Jersey. And, if the Republican presidential nominee is anyone other than Rudy Giuliani, I expect those top-of-the-ticket numbers to return to their 2000 level. If Democrats and progressives hope to expand their caucus, this is exactly the kind of seat they should be targeting.
We’ll just have to wait and see if Van Drew can win his state Senate race this fall before we know who LoBiondo will line up against.
Race Tracker: NJ-02
That New Jersey Democrats suffered heavily from Toricelli and especially McGreevey in 2004, and this hurt the most apparently in Southern New Jersey districts.