With a few filing deadlines past, I think its time we take a look at which races we should be looking at in the coming year. There will be many races where fundraising will be key and netroots support can make that fundraising possible.
Illinois is going to be an interesting place come this November, especially if Barack Obama is the Democrats presidential nominee. With Dick Durbin a safe bet for his Senate Seat, the Democrats could have 2 very big coattails for their downballot races and there are many opportuities in this state.
We have a great chance to get rid of a DINO in Dan Lipinski early on in the 3rd Congressional District with Mark Pera, who would then be a safe bet to win come November. It is imperative that we give Pera our full support early on as he will need every dollar to overcome the now splinterd anti-Lipinski vote. Everyone here understands that we will need Democrats of all shapes and colors to overcome the Republicans, but what we really need are good Democrats, especially in Districts that should have good Democrats like this one should.
The second race to watch is the 6th congressional district, where 30 year army veteran, local businesswoman, and the former director of the Illinois Department of Homeland Security, Colonel Jill Morganthaler is running. While the current holder of the seat, Peter Roskam beat Tammy Duckworth by the skin of this teeth, he did so during a year that has no presidential or senatorial coattails to assist the downballot races. Col. Morganthaler can give Roskam yet another race for his life and anywhere we can put Republicans on the defense is one less place they can attack us and leaves less money for them to defend other seats.
The Democratic held 8th CD is next on my list, though at first look, it appears Congresswoman Melissa Bean will escape a real challenge this year. The main Republican candidate is businessman Steve Greenberg, and while he is raising some money, Congresswoman Bean has over 1 million dollars more than Greenburg has all together and Greenburg will have to spend that money beating back a couple of minor primary challengers and introducing himself to the district. I expect this district, which Republicans hope to contest, won’t be much of a race, but Bean has had recent close contests, is listed as a Frontline Dem by the DCCC and is on the NRCC target list, so we’ll keep an eye on this race until it proves to be the blowout I’m expecting.
the 10th congressional district will see a Democratic primary between 2006 nominee Dan Seals, and a Clinton Administration official, Jay Footlik. Seals is the favorite to win the primary at this time and is raising significant amounts of money. He will once again challenge Republican Mark Kirk and with his name recognition higher after last years close defeat, the DCCC should play heavily here. Coattails can also play a part in this race as well. Just like 06, this race will once again be a race to watch (and spend money on)
In the 11th CD, state senate majority leader Debbie Halvorsen is in the race for this open seat. It appears that New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman will be her opponent though he has to face some minor primary challengers first. Halvorsen has significant support and name recognition as her state senate district overlaps this congressional district. I’d give Halvorsen a slight edge in this race thus far and it is by far one of our best pick up opportunities in the state.
For my last major pick up opportunity, we go to Illinois 14th district, formerly held by the Congressman no one on this site will miss in Denny Hastert. John Laesch is the 2006 nominee and he is back again this year but has had some lackluster fundraising numbers thus far, not including his 4th quarter totals. Meanwhile, Bill Foster, a scientist and local businessman has over 500,000 cash on hand and appears to be the favorite to get the Dem nod, especially after getting the endorsement of Senator Durbin. The Republicans will have a serious primary between State Senator Chris Lauzen and the businessman who has lost a race for just about everything, Jim Oberweis. Oberweis appears to be the favorite of the Republican establishment but Lauzen has raised more money. Lets hope they beat the crap out of each other and that things get really really nasty.
On the bottom of my listing here, are 4 races that have candidates who seems to be doing ok in fundraising but aren’t excelling, though with a little netroots help, may just make life even more miserable for the GOP in this state and nationwide.
Scott Harper in the 13th congressional district, Robert Abboud in the 16th congressional district, the 18th congressional district, where Democrats will choose who the nominee will be after the only filed candidate, Dick Versace, dropped out, and Joe McMenamin in the 19th congressional district have all raised over 50,000 dollars and could become thorns in the side of a GOP that is going to be stretched to its limits. These lower races here could also burst onto the scene in a similar fashion as those of Carol Shea-Porter and Nancy Boyda, especially if Obama is the nominee. Illinois has the potential to be a hotbed of Democratic activity next year and we need to give them all the support we can.
I’ll be doing the rest of the states shortly and then intend to update the lists as things go on.
All of the New Mexico congressional races and the Senate race should be VERY interesting. Udall’s coattails might give us an edge in NM-1. NM-2 will be difficult, but can be done with enough money and a crappy GOP nominee.
In Illinois 10, Jay Footlik has outpaced Dan Seals with his fundraising and is gaining support by the day. With three debates this week and increased media coverage, I expect Seals’ “frontrunner” status to do as much for him as it did for Hillary Clinton in Iowa, disappearing fast.
Footlik, who has done things to make positive change in people’s lives, is a change agent with experience, and will beat Kirk. Seals’ inability of effect any change or show experience would be crushed by Kirk this time.
footlik’s campaign doesn’t seem able to get off the ground. voters don’t know who he is, despite receiving a number of mailers (this observation comes from people knocking on doors). the campaign is largely non-responsive — hidden even — from those who aren’t let in. it may be one of the best funded “secret” campaigns of all time. it will be interesting to see if footlik can crack the 30% barrier. seals has this one wrapped up…
Okay, I’m a novice and this might not be the right place to ask, but…where does one plug in who’s got time and energy to go to a swing state like Illinois and do some ground work in the summer? Isn’t this how Swing State Project started out? Is it just a blog now? Do tell.