Texas is one of those states that is causing problems for Democrats in general. While all but 3 of its 32 congressional districts are not in play, 2 of those that are in play are held by Democrats and one of those is a major Republican target.
A strong play in other states will force Republicans to play more defense than offense which is why it is imperative that we offer assisstance to the candidates that we identify as strong contenders in any way we can. Whether that is spending time voulnteering for their campaigns, sending money, or blogging about them to raise internet awareness like we do here.
I send many thanks to some posters here that have made me aware of candidates like Benjamin Lodmell who, if given the money and time, could make a solid challenger in a Republican district forcing the Republicans to spend some of the precious little money that they have. As of the third quarter fundraising, the Democrats have enough money to spend slightly over 200,000 dollars on everyone of the 104 races I have thus far identified and still have enough money left over to match the NRCC dollar for dollar in every race they spend money on.
Here in Texas, the first race I’ll cover is the only good news in the state. the 10th CD is the one Democratic pick up opportunity I see in this state at this time. Larry Doherty and Dan Grant are going to battle it out for the Democratic nomination but I believe that Larry Doherty, a Judge on the television show Texas Justice, and successful Houston Attorney, will come out on top in this race. Larry Doherty is then well positioned to take this fight to the Republicans. His CoH totals after the third quarter were slightly more than 100,000 behind Republican Congressman Micheal McCaul. With an infusion of cash and some help in this district, we can once again take the fight to the Republicans.
Now, the bad news begins, the next 2 districts are Democratic defense districts. To no one’s surprise, Texas 22 and Congressman Nick Lampson is on this list. Lampson won this district last year after Tom DeLay left a sour taste in the mouth of the constiuents but now it appears this district is ready to head back to its roots and elect a Republican. Lampson has been raising money like crazy and has over 800,000 in the bank. His main opposition is split in a 3 way primary with a few gnats flying around waiting for the time to strike to reach the top tier. Former Sugarland Mayor Dean Hrbacek, Navy Veteran Peter Olsen, and the 06 nominee Shelley Sekula-Gibbs are all raising serious cash (over 100,000 dollars, Sekula Gibbs has over 600,000 at the top of the list) but Former Pasadena Mayor John Manlove, Judge Jim Squier and State Representative Robert Talton are all starting to raise money and could seriously compete in this race. A 6 way primary could be just what the doctor ordered to save Lampson.
Texas 23 is my final race here, where Ciro Rodriguez handily defeated the incumbent Republican in 2006. While I can’t locate an FEC report for Ciro, the green papers list one of his opponents, businessman and attorney Francisco Canseco has raised over 800,000 dollars but has a primary challenger in the form of County Commissioner Lyle Larson, who enetered the race just before the deadline.
These 2 seats could be very intersting and it could also be interesting to watch the only other piece of decent news coming out of the state. While Glenn Melancon in the 4th district is unable to make my list here and now, he may be able to do so in the future. I will be going back over some races and doing additions as the 4th quarter fundraising numbers become available, so keep checking for updates.
that district is lean Dem at the Presidential level without Bush on the ballot and is 65% Hispanic.
The reason that race is on there is due to the huge fundraising disadvantage that Ciro appears to be at at this time. I can find no FEC report on file for him and his opponent has over 800,000 CoH and thats before we add his fourth quarter numbers. Until I see Ciro with atleast some cash that he has to spend, and I’m talking in excess of half a million dollars, Ciro is in danger in my opinion. Money talks. I’ve seen peopel lose due to a lack of a campaign even were they were a good fit for their seat on the local level before.
had to make a quick check of my posting, but I see that I did infact include Larson. I don’t know a whole lot about him but your right, he does come from a large portion of thedistrict and could be quite the challenge. Though he lacks in the money race right now.
According to the FEC website, Ciro Rodriguez finished the 3rd quarter with $592,000 cash on hand. Francisco Canseco had $300,000 cash on hand, but almost all his money is from a personal contribution.
I’d love a link to the page you’ve got those stats on, assuming it isn’t password protected. Also, looking at those numbers, it is defeintly a safe bet to remove Ciro from the endangered list. I’ll be doing Texas again after the primaries incase anything happens during them that surprises people so I’ll just update it then.
If CD 10 is in play, then why isn’t CD 32?
From http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/red…
CD-10
U.S. SENATOR
Hutchison – R 107,988 62.5%
Radnofsky – D 64,818 37.5%
U.S. REP 10
McCaul – R 97,712 57.8%
Ankrum – D 71,415 42.2%
SUPREME CT 2
Willett – R 89,899 54.4%
Moody – D 75,343 45.6%
STATEWIDES**
Democratic 40.7%
Republican 59.3%
CD-32
U.S. SENATOR
Hutchison – R 79,000 63.4%
Radnofsky – D 45,679 36.6%
U.S. REP 32
Sessions – R 71,461 57.8%
Pryor – D 52,269 42.2%
SUPREME CT 2
Willett – R 63,704 54.5%
Moody – D 53,250 45.5%
STATEWIDES**
Democratic 40.4%
Republican 59.6%
Those aren’t much different.