I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.
crossposted to swingstateproject
These are all states with filing deadlines in early April
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of tShe district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
TN has 9 congressional districts, 5 Democratic and 4 Republican
AL 7 districts, 5 Republican and 2 Democratic
NJ has 13 districts, 7 Democratic, 6 Republican
The districts held by Democrats are
Confirmed
district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
AL-05 R+6 .56 Cramer Yes Safe
AL-07 D+17 .11 Davis No Safe
NJ-01 D+14 .37 Andrews No Safe for
Democrats, Andrews
may run for Senate
NJ-06 D+12 .31 Pallone No Safe
NJ-08 D+12 .34 Pascrell No Safe
NJ-09 D+13 .28 Rothman No Safe
NJ-10 D+34 .07 Payne No Safe
NJ-12 D+8 .56 Holt No Safe
NJ-13 D+23 .18 Sires No Safe
TN-04 R+3 .79 Davis No Safe
TN-05 D+6 .31 Cooper No Safe
TN-06 R+4 .74 Gordon No Safe
TN-08 D+0 .58 Tanner No Safe
TN-09 D+18 .07 Cohen Only primary Safe for Dem
As for those held by Republicans
AL-01 R+12 .40
AL-01 is the southwest corner of AL, bordering MS, FL, and the gulf of Mexico.
Bonner, first elected in 2002, has won easily even against an opponent with reasonable funding (in 2004, when Bonner got about the same as Bush).
His opponent this time is Ben Lodmell (nice looking site… With links to YouTube and lots of documentation on the evils of Bonner), and, if I am reading the FEC report correctly, he already has $50,000 COH.
AL-02 R+13 .48
AL-02 is the southeast quarter of AL, bordering FL and GA.
Everett, first elected in 1992, is retiring
There is no confirmed Democratic challenger, although the mayor of Montgomery, Bobby Bright, is considering it.
AL-03 R+4 .43
AL-03 is eastern AL, bordering GA.
Rogers, first elected in 2002, won a narrow victory in 2002, and got only around 60% in 2004 and 2006, despite (in 2006) having a funding edge of more than 100-1.
The confirmed challengers are Greg Pierce , who lost in 2006, and Joshua Segall . Bobby Bright (see AL-02) is also mentioned, but, since Everitt is retiring, Bright will probably run there.
AL-04 R+16 .82
AL-04 is an east-west strip in northern AL, not quite at the border with TN (TN borders AL-05, another east-west strip), but running from MS to GA.
Aderholt, first elected in 1996, hasn’t had a close race since then, although his opponents have had little money.
The confirmed challenger this time is Greg Warren . Barbara Bobo, the 2006 challenger, might run again, as might Ron Sparks
AL-06 R+25 .74
AL-06 is a weird shaped district in the middle of the state. Why weird? Well, AL-06 is 89% White and R + 25; AL-07 is 62% Black and D+17.
Bachus, first elected in 1992, has won unopposed or with only token opposition since he got in.
There is no confirmed challenger
NJ-02 D+4 .49
NJ-02 is the southernmost part of NJ, bordering DE, Delaware Bay, and the Atlantic and including Atlantic City
LoBiondo, first elected in 1994, has won easily against underfunded opponents.
There is no confirmed challenger, but assemblyman James Whelan might run.
NJ-03 D+3 .56
NJ-03 is an east-west strip from PA to the Atlantic, including Philadelphia suburbs and a lot of the Jersey shore, and the pine barrens.
Saxton, first elected in 1984, is retiring, and there is no confirmed Republican running (!)
The confirmed candidate on our side is John Adler
NJ-04 R+1 .58
NJ-04 is just north of NJ-03, and includes Trenton, Freehold, and Point Pleasant.
Smith, first elected in 1980, has won easily against underfunded opponents.
There are two confirmed challengers: Amy Vazquez who looks like a true progressive (but whose website needs updating) and Josh Zeitz, who needs a website, but who seems to be raising a fair amount of money.
NJ-05 R+4 .79
NJ-05 is a boomerang shaped district running along the northernmost part of NJ, bordering NY and PA, and including some NYC suburbs.
Garrett, first elected in 2002, has been held to relatively narrow margins (55-45 in 2006) despite out-spending his opponent about 2-1.
There are a lot of potential Democratic candidates, and two confirmed challengers: Dennis Shulman and Camille Abate . From what I can tell quickly, Abate looks more progressive.
NJ-07 R+1 .72
NJ-07 is an S-shaped district (well sort of) across the middle of the state. It is the 5th highest income district in the country.
Ferguson, first elected in 2000, is retiring. He won a very tight race in 2006 against Linda Stender (winning by less than 3,000 votes out of 200,000).
There are several Republicans interested, but the only Democrat is Linda Stender . She almost knocked off an incumbent, so I have to think she has an excellent shot (but her website doesn’t seem to go anywhere, unless it’s me).
NJ-11 R+6 .79
NJ-11 is a sort of blob shaped district in north central NJ, and is the 2nd wealthiest district in the nation.
Freylinghausen, first elected in 1994, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2006, he beat Tom Wyka 62-37, although he raised 100 times as much (Wyka only raised $12,000).
Wyka is running again.
TN-01 R+14 .68
TN-01 is the eastern part of TN, most of the narrow part of the state, bordering VA and NC.
Davis, first elected in 2006, won the GE easily after a tough primary battle.
There are no confirmed challengers, but several people are considering running.
TN-02 R+11 .58
TN-02 is the southeastern part of TN, including Knoxville
Duncan, first elected in 1988, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2004 he got 30,000 more votes than Bush
There are no confirmed challengers
TN-03 R+8 .58
TN-03 is shaped like a barbell: Two blobs with a stick in between. The southern blob includes Chattanooga and the northern part is mostly rural. It runs north south and borders both VA and KY and GA.
Wamp, first elected in 1994, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2004, he got about the same number of votes as Bush.
There are no confirmed challengers, and the 2006 challenger, Brent Benedict, has one of the strangest websites I’ve seen for a Democrat.
TN-07 R+12 .74
TN-07 is the southwestern part of TN, bordering MS and AL
Blackburn, first elected in 2002, was unopposed in 2004 and won easily in 2006.
There are no confirmed challengers
Summary: AL and TN look pretty bleak, although we might have a shot in AL-02. At least the Democrats are safe, too.
NJ is a different matter. All the Democrats are safe, but NJ-03 might be a gimmee, NJ-05 is at least possible, NJ-07 is likely. I’d say we pick up two in NJ
NJ-03 has two Republicans in a primary battle. Medford Mayor Chris Myers is the Burlington County candidate, and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly is the Ocean County candidate.
Garrett had two hard fought Club For Growth funded primaries against the moderate Republican incumbent, Marge Roukema. Roukema bailed out of a third war and Garrett stepped in. His vote has gone done three straight times from 61% to 58% to 55%. While NJ has five of the last of the GOP moderates in the House, Garrett is way out of step.
I live in the neighboring district (NJ-11) which is pretty much the most hopeless one in the state but I met Aronsohn and sensed some of the vibe from Abate’s previous primary challenge. Normally primaries are good but this wound up taking the air out of Aronsohn’s campaign. Abate’s whole line was really not pro-Abate but anti-Aronsohn. Another run like that and we’ll have two more years of Garrett. Any Democrat would be a huge improvement on Garrett (Progressive Punch score of 4)and Aronsohn really had a feel for the working people, the diabled and the elderly. A united Democrat will win this. Hundreds of fewer votes were cast for Garrett than for Keane, Jr. in town after town (many blanks) in the Bergen County part of the district. Btw, nor surprisingly,Aronsohn is now supporting Schulman. If I lived in the district, I would, too.
that we haven’t put up a formidable challenge in AL-03 since 2002, when the district was drawn to elect a moderate-conservative Democrat. I hope we can reverse it this time around, but I remain skeptical.
I don’t want LoBiondo to retire before either Whelan (or recently elected state senator Jeff Van Drew, should he choose to run in 2010) are ready to run (and they are not ready in 2008 simply because it looks really, really bad for them to run for Congress this soon). I would much rather LoBiondo win another term and perhaps choose to retire in 2010 (or 2012, if that’s when he’s going to call it quits) rather than face either of our two top-tier candidates, so that it will be an open seat rather than LoBiondo retire (which could happen as early as this cycle), and someone else win against a lower-tier challenger, and have them be set up as an incumbent. I pretty much think that the seat will belong to either Van Drew or Whalen should they time it right so they are running for it as an open seat.
Just my opinion, but I don’t mind if we run a sacrificial lamb in 2008, because we’re looking to pick up NJ-3 and NJ-7 while we’ve got the strongest challengers we’re going to get in those districts in the next decade, the incumbents have been frightened into retirement, and all the best non-incumbent challengers on the GOP side have been scared away. Let’s do our best to time it right so that the same happens when we’re ready to take LoBiondo’s seat.