The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
AZ has 8 congressional districts: 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans
The districts held by Democrats are
Confirmed
dist Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
AZ04 D+14 .20 Pastor No Safe
AZ05 R+4 .47 Mitchell Yes Slight vul
AZ07 D+10 .27 Grijalva Yes Safe
AZ08 R+1 .46 Giffords Yes Slight vul
As for those held by Republicans:
AZ-01 R+2 .19
AZ-01 is the entire northeastern part of AZ, except for the odd blob in the middle that is AZ-02
Renzi, first elected in 2002, had close races in 2002 and 2006, and is retiring.
Confirmed Democrats include: Allan Affeldt ; Howard Shanker ; Ann Kirkpatrick and Mary Kim Titla and several others who might run. This looks like a good pickup possibility.
AZ-02 R+9 .47
AZ-02 is one of the most bizarrely shaped districts. It includes the western part of AZ (bordering NV, CA and UT, and then a thin strip of land into a blob in interior AZ, and another blob in the south to the western suburbs of Phoenix
Franks, first elected in 2002, has won fairly easily against underfunded opponents.
The Democratic challenger is John Thrasher , who lost in 2006 by 59-39, although he raised very little money.
AZ-03 R+6 .49
AZ-03 is the northern suburbs of Phoenix and Paradise Valley
Shadegg, first elected in 1994, was held under 60% in 2006 by Herb Paine, who raised less than $100,000.
The Democratic challenger is Bob Lord who has raised more money than Shadegg, and has more COH. Could get interersting.
AZ-06 R+12 .50
Flake, first elected in 2000, has not had a Democratic opponent since 2002.
In 2008, Richard Grayson
Summary
AZ-01 is definitely competitive, AZ-05 might be. I don’t know how vulnerable Mitchell and Giffords are.
If McCain is the GOP nominee, then AZ-05 and AZ-08 will have to be defended vigorously.
AZ-03 looks to be very competetive with Bob Lord running and AZ-02 has some great potential if Thrasher can raiose some decent funds. He fought his way through a 3 way primary 2 years ago so many of the fund he did rasie went to that so he had very little left to spend against Franks.
I am running in AZ-06 against Flake simply because I was disgusted that I couldn’t vote for a Democrat in 2006 and annoyed that no one ran in 2004, either. I have been trying to get a real candidate like a local Democratic officeholder or someone with community experience to run, but so far I have been unsuccessful. It seems like the 25% of the Democrats in AZ-06 aren’t really interested in even a symbolic token campaign against Flake, but that’s OK with me. At least I’ll be able to vote for a Democrat even if it’s just myself.
For whatever it’s worth, Emily’s List has thrown its considerable fund-raising muscle behind Ann Kirkpatrick. Their profile of her can be found here:
http://www.emilyslist.org/cand…
As usual, their endorsement means the candidate is female and pro-choice and that the Emily’s List vetting process indicates she has a credible chance to win. It does not preclude the possibility that one of the other Democrats running in the primary race might be even more progressive, or have some other claim to attention. I haven’t done my homework on this district yet, myself, and would welcome an informed comment on any of the other candidates in the race.
in the long run, it doesn’t matter if any other candidate is more progressive or deserving of attention in this race. Kirkpatrick has it in the bag. It would take a major scandal to change this outcome.
Mostly because the Republicans have yet to recruit a top-tier challenger, and the good ones have already disclaimed interest. If they were smart, they’d get a draft behind State Sen. Tom O’Halleran or Apache County Supervisor Lewis Tenney (both of whom have said they won’t run), but the Republicans in the district are surprisingly unorganized this year. FYI, Affeldt dropped out months ago.
I wouldn’t count Lord out of CD-3, though Shadegg is loved there. Same with Bee in CD-8, not because Giffords has any trouble, but because Bee is genuinely popular in his own right after bucking much of his own party to get a budget through the Legislature that Gov. Napolitano could sign.
I think the most exciting race will be CD-5. Never underestimate Harry Mitchell — JD Hayworth did that last cycle to his peril — but there are some damn big names in that field. Biggest of all is Corporation Commission President Jeff Hatch-Miller, one of the most popular Republicans in the state. I wouldn’t want to have to run against that guy.