Who do you want to see run for Senate in 2008? That’s what we’re talking about in this post.
This is the second Senate recruitment open thread here on Swing State Project (the first one was here, and we saw all kinds of great suggestions). We’re going in alphabetical order, five GOP-held seats at a time. Links are to the Race Tracker wiki, and incumbents are in parens:
6) Kansas (Pat Roberts)7) Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)
8) Maine (Susan Collins)
9) Minnesota (Norm Coleman)
10) Mississippi (Thad Cochran)
As I said the first time:
Don’t limit yourself to politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists – even athletes or celebrities (think Heath Shuler or Al Franken) – are all fair game. Even seemingly outlandish suggestions are welcome. Would you have ever predicted that the guitarist from Orleans would now be a Congressman-elect?
However, please do limit yourself to the five races listed in this post. I know everyone is eager to talk about the whole slate of races we’ve got lined up, but I promise that we’ll get to each batch separately. I think we can have a more productive discussion, though, if we stay focused and only deal with a chunk of races at time.
So, what’ve you got?
. . . that are worth our time and energy on this list are Maine and Minnesota. For Maine, I would say Congressman Tom Allen is a good option, since he’s popular and well-known in the more populous of the state’s two congressional districts. And for Minnesota . . . first, let me proclaim to everyone who visits this blog . . . NOT AL FRANKEN!!! I got to meet him at a Q&A session after a screening of his lackluster documentary a few months ago. The whole experience left me thoroughly unimpressed. His heart is in the right place, and I know he wants to restore Wellstonian ideals to the state of Minnesota (which I wholeheartedly condone,) but . . . he’s just not the guy to do it. For a comedian, he is incredibly self-serious, and comes across as angry at times. He does not have the politician’s touch of making people warm up to him. In a more assuredly blue state (e.g. Maryland, where Ben Cardin won despite having all the oomph of a wooden plank,) Franken’s demeanor wouldn’t matter as much. But Minnesota swings. We need someone who can appeal to voters across the board in that state, much the way Amy Klobuchar did this time around. And I would say that candidate is Rep. Betty McCollum.
Kansas – Obviously it would be Kathleen Sebelius. After that, I’d say Dennis Moore.
Kentucky – #1 would be Ben Chandler, followed by George Clooney. After that I don’t know.
Maine – Allen, of course…
Minnesota – Ford Bell (?) or McCollum, or Franken. Doesn’t matter much to me here.
Mississippi – Mike Moore, who would very likely win if Cochran retires.
In Kansas, I would not want Moore to run because we would likely lose his House seat. Same with Chandler in Kentucky. In Maine, Tom Allen would be a pretty good choice, as his district has a PVI of D+10 and would be fairly easy to hold.
….would probably be most likely to elect either St. Paul Congresswoman Betty McCollum or former State Senator Steve Kelley over Norm Coleman in 2008. Neither one is a slam dunk and has potential liabilities, but are both earnest and likable pols who should pass the “character test” among conservative Democrats (particularly those in the western side of the state) who often deny their votes to candidates like Gore and Kerry who they don’t feel they can trust.
McCollum would be a good antidote to Coleman in St. Paul. While Coleman was easily bested in St. Paul by Walter Mondale back in 2002, he still did far better than most other Republicans in the past decade. The downside is that McCollum is unknown outside of the east metro, and some narrow minds will likely balk at the prospect of electing a second brunette female to the U.S. Senate is as many years.
Kelley’s previous electoral successes in the second-ring suburbs will be very useful to carry over in a statewide election against Coleman, who soared like an eagle in the suburbs back in 2002. His downside is two primary/nomination defeats this year, which dimmed his star considerably.
One guy who has suggested he may run but should stay far away is former Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson, who was defeated in his home district last month. I like Johnson alot, but his faux paus about gay marriage has made him seriously damaged goods.
Al Franken also strikes me as unelectable. I’m willing to be persuaded otherwise, but the amount of verbal baggage that can be foisted on Franken based on his books and radio shows tells me that his campaign would be DOA….not to mention the fact that I can’t see him campaigning at hog farms in Worthington.
Writer John Grisham would make a great candidate. Not only is he a big supporter of the Democratic Party, but he has expressed interest in the past about running for office. During Katrina, he was very visible in lending support and rebuilding MS. Maybe that could be his platform.
Kansas – Sebelius – no-brainer, right?
Kentucky – Ben Chandler. Dan Mongiardo. Maybe George Clooney?
Maine – Allen’s expressed interest. I say go for it.
Minnesota – Does narrowly losing a campaign actually help someone a few years down the road? Maybe Mike Hatch could make a go of it. I’m all for Al Franken too.
Mississippi – It’s obvious that Mississppi Republicans fear Mike Moore. I agree that John Grisham would do great as well.
KS- It will be competitive if Roberts retires. You will have a highly competive primary between the moderate say ex Governor Bill Graves and conservative- say US Rep Todd Tiahrt. Top Tier Democrats- are Sebelius or Glickman. Kansas rarely elects Democrats to the US Senate. The best Democratic recruitment will be ex Lt Governor John Moore- Kathleen Sebelius former runningmate.- Moore is a former Republican. ala James Webb.
KY- ex Governor Breten Jones. popular former Democratic Governor.
ME- US Rep Tom Allen or Independent Governor Angus King
MN- US Rep Betty McCollum
MS- competive if Cochran retires- Mike Moore or Mike Espy or Ronnie Musgrove or Ronnie Shows.
I’m surprised by the number of people who have posited George Clooney as a possible challenger for McConnell. Sure, there’s name ID and fundraising would be a breeze, but surely Clooney is too liberal for the upper south. Not to mention, Hollywood money doesn’t exactly play well outside of…well, Hollywood.
Finally, does anyone know if Clooney is even qualified to be a U.S. Senator? Say what you want about McConnell’s politics (and I could say plenty), but he’s got a pretty deep resume.
I’m most interested in the MN race, since I’m from MN and would consider returning to work on a campaign. I have mixed feelings about Al Franken as a candidate in Minnesota. Basically I agree with everything The Caped Composer said above.
Here are all my ideas (including unoriginal and bad ones) in the spirit of a brainstorm.
I consider all the U.S. Representatives to be weak or unlikely as Senate candidates. I’m mainly listing them to preempt non-Minnesotans from suggesting them.
—Betty McCollum is the one everyone’s talking about, and i can’t figure out why. She’d better get some legislative accomplishments pronto if she wants to run against Coleman.
—Collin Peterson and Jim Oberstar. Both are committee chairs, so they’re not going anywhere.
—Keith Ellison and Tim Walz. Both are freshmen. Ellison barely cracked 50% in the 5th, so no way he’s running in a statewide. I doubt Walz is interested in fundraising all the way through his one congressional term.
Here are two self-funders. Unfortunately, all the Minnesotans on Forbes’s list are big Republican donors.
—Jim Pohlad. Son of Twins owner (and billionaire banker) Carl Pohlad. He’s a Democrat, and everyone knows the Pohlad name. The Twins stadium could be an albatross.
—Vance Opperman. Son of West Publishing magnate Dwight Opperman (a Republican). He’s long been active in the DFL, and he considered running for Senate against Rod Grams in 2000.
There’s a bumper crop of past senate candidates who lost in primaries in 2000 and 2006, and some of them have hinted over the years that they’d like to run for office again. In no particular order:
—David Lillehaug. One of my favorites on this list: I can’t remember whether I voted for him or Dayton in the 2000 primary. He was close to Wellstone, and he may want to run for Congress if Ramstad retires.
—Mike Ciresi. Is he played out? Is that an understatement?
—Jerry Janezich. He’s from the Iron Range, and actually won the party endorsement back in 2000, but is not a great fundraiser.
—Rebecca Yanisch. Unlikely, given how much people scoffed at her bid to replace Wellstone on the 2002 ballot.
—Stephen Miles. A doctor at the U of M who ran on health care. I don’t know whether he’s interested in running again, but I think he could be an interesting candidate if he had more than one issue.
—Ford Bell. I wasn’t in Minnesota in 2006, so I don’t have a comment.
—Patty Wetterling. Please no!
Sorta along the same lines, there are the “juniors” who all ran for governor in 1998. I think all three are bad ideas:
—Skip Humphrey, son of VP Hubert; Ted Mondale, son of VP Walter; Mike Freeman, son of Governor Orville.
There are some former congressman who could possibly run.
—Bill Luther, a Blue Dog who got redistricted out of a seat, is a tough campaigner. He jumped into the AG race last fall, so he clearly is willing to run for office again.
—David Minge, another Blue Dog, has a cushy judgeship, so I doubt he’d want to run.
—Tim Penny would be on this list, except that he jumped to the IP. There’s no way I’d support him if he ran for the nomination, but would other people?
Some state legislators:
—Steve Kelley has lost a heckuva lot of primaries. But, then again, so had Mark Dayton before he won in 2000.
—Dean Johnson. Sure, he just lost re-election. But he’s not from the Twin Cities, and he might have cred with independents as a former Republican (the opposite of Norm Coleman). According to the Star Tribune, he’s mulling a run.
—Larry Pogemiller. The man badly needs a new hairdo, but he’s very knowledgeable about education, has a new platform as Senate Majority Leader, and he strikes me as the sort of guy who could make appeal to liberal caucus-goers.
—Margaret Anderson Kelliher. The new House Speaker. She’s quite young, so I could imagine her waiting for a while to run for higher office. She’s a little like Amy Klobuchar, in that she lives in Minneapolis but has an outstate background.
Mayors:
—Chris Coleman of St. Paul. (No relation to Norm.) Would neutralize Norm Coleman overperformance in St. Paul, and has connections with a bunch of big names who campaigned for him against DINO Randy Kelly. (And what about his brother, Nick Coleman, liberal columnist for the Star Tribune?)
—R.T. Rybak of Minneapolis. This idea strikes me as a non-starter, but I can’t put my finger on why.
And here are some miscellaneous crazy ideas.
—Defensive Tackle and Associate Justice Alan Page. He’d have to resign his place on the Supreme Court, as Senator Cornyn did when he ran for AG in Texas, but he’s a smart guy who’s proven that he can win a statewide election as a celebrity candidate. Could the fourth elected Black senator be a Minnesotan?
—David Durenberger. He was a corrupt Republican senator, but hey, nobody’s perfect! He supported Kerry in 2004, opposes Bush on Iraq, and is fairly liberal on health care and education.
—Tom Friedman or Aaron Brown. Both went to high school in St. Louis Park with Al Franken. Tom Friedman is oft-mocked on blogs, but he has a certain Very Serious Person image that might be effective as a candidate for all I know. I don’t know whether anyone remembers who Aaron Brown is anymore. Like Franken, they’d have to move back to Minnesota.
—If nobody else wants to run, there’s always Dick Franson.
KS: Have Sebelius wait to run until 10, when she can go for Brownback’s seat. Unless Roberts retires, I don’t think we can make this that competitive.
KY: I’m not very familiar with KY politics, but Chandler might have a good chance.
ME: Tom Allen–duh
MN: My home state. Either US Rep Betty McCollum, or Minneapolis mayor RT Ryback. Both have low name ID and can build themselves however they want. NOT Al Franken and DEFINITELY NOT Mike Hatch or Judi Dutcher. Obviously, of the discussed candidates, Tim Walz (my congressman-elect) would be the best senator, but he ain’t running.
MS: If Cochran doesn’t retire, don’t make it a race where we waste a ton of money. If he does, ex-AG Mike Moore, and current US Rep Gene Taylor would be preferable candidates. Either one would probably be a slight favorite in an open-seat contest.
I’d be okay with Chandler running in KY. Having a good chance to pick up a Senate seat offsets by far the potential loss of a House seat. And I suspect we’d have a good chance to keep the seat, what with the corrupt governor’s race being at the top of the ticket.
6) Kansas: – Gov. K. Sebelius-D
7) Kentucky: Cong. Ben Chandler III-D KY-06, Out of the Box Choice: George Clooney
8) Maine: Cong. Tom Allen-D ME-01 (Not Jean Hay Bright)
9) Minnesota: Cong. Betty Mc Collum-D MN-04 (Not Wetterling or Hatch or Franken)
10) Mississippi: Ex-AG Mike Moore-D
…he’s actually qualified, in the sense that he has legislative experience: he was a Democratic representative in the Mississippi House from 1983-1990!
John Grisham would generate loads of free publicity and attention to the race. I’ll bet he could draw in donations from out of state, too. This is sort of a very rare perfect storm of a celebrity who’s actually qualified to run for office.
back to Mississippi from Charlottesville, Virginia – he was a terrific asset this last cycle, too, and helped raise a ton of money for Jim Webb. I’m all for it.
For Kentucky, I *don’t* want to see Ben Chandler run. I’d rather see him save his political capital for the brawl that will be the open seat race to replace Jim Bunning in 2010.
. . . John Grisham would be a GREAT candidate for Mississippi! That could be our only chance for a win down there! I say go for it.
I agree with the idea that Ben Chandler should wait it out for Bunning’s seat to open up. George Clooney probably wouldn’t go over well in KY, since he is perceived (rightly so) as being a Hollywood liberal (a compliment by my estimation, but the majority of Kentuckians do not share that viewpoint.)
Unless Cochran retires I doubt there will be more than a token opponent. Cochran is more popular than Lott and has always been more moderate as well..
John Grisham – As someone else mentioned he served a number of years in the Missisisppi legislature before becoming a writer
Morgan Freeman He lives in the Delta near Greenwood now and is very active in a number of causes. His name has been mentioned at times as a possibility for political office.
Former AG Mike Moore
Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
Former Gov. Ray Mabus
Atty. Gen Jim Hood
Cong. Gene Taylor
Former Cong. Ronnie Shows
Former Cong. & Sec. Of Agriculture Mike Espy
Bob Pittman – Founder of MTV and Nickelodeon, former top executive at AOL Time Warner. Owns newspapers and other interests in Mississippi.
John Arthur Eaves – prominent trial lawyer
who should never run for anything in the state of minnesota ever ever again! He is nothing but a partisan hack who cares only about his own political future and is a polar opposite to Sen. Wellstone. Judi Dutcher…don’t even get me started on that retarded woman
Coleman is definately beatable in Minnesota. He is way too conservative for Minnesota and was pretty much elected as an accidental Senator. In regards to Franken, I am not so sure if he is unelectable. Jesse Ventura said some pretty radical things and he was elected over Coleman. All I know is that we need to find somebody good to run against Coleman.
I would also like to see Collins get the Chaffee treatment in Maine. There is no reason why a blue state like Maine should continue to send somebody to the Senate who puts right wingers like Lott and Santorum into leadership positions.
I do worry about Mary Landrieu and Tim Johnson. I know that Landrieu probably starts out as the underdog for reelection unless she gets a weak oponent. I hope that Mike Rounds doesn’t run against Johnson, but if he does, Johnson would be smart to play the farm supports card, which Daschle did not do. Democrats are often able to save themselves in South Dakota by letting voters know that the Republicans would cut farm supports.
For Democrats in Mississippi, the only thing awaiting them is putting together the winning team for 2007 & 2008, and it appears another bastion of the Republicans will fall. Already, preparing for the Governor’s race, some candidates are bowing out in favor of the clear front runners. Former U.S. Congressman Wayne Dowdy (D), who lost a bid for U.S. Senate in 1988 to Trent Lott (R) and current State Democratic Party Chairman, has bowed out – soon to be followed by Secretary of State Eric Clark (D), to clear the way for the “Big Three” as former Governors Ronnie Musgrove, Ray Mabus, and former Attorney General Mike Moore are known.
The rumours out of Mississippi have the makings of a dynamic ticket of Former Governor Ray Mabus seeking a second term for Governor in 2007 with a ticket mate of none other than former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. In addition, in 2008, Democrats would turn to former Attorney General Mike Moore, the winning attorney in the landmark suit against the Tobacco Companies, to be their nominee for U.S. Senator in 2008.
Both former Governors lost narrowly to populist Republicans whose promises of smaller government turned their administrations sour in the end. Mabus lost to Kirk Fordice in 1991, after a bruising primary fight with Dowdy who was attempting a comeback. After that, Mabus served as U.S. Ambassodor to Saudi Arabia under President Clinton as well as a key spokesperson for former U.S. Senator Bill Bradley in his Presidential bid in 2000. Mabus still retains the ability to draw a crowd and is well liked by the African-American, Labor, and rural Farm Communities of the Delta. This could be a significant coalition to unseat first term Governor Haley Barbour. As one Mississippi legislator states, “Ray (Mabus) has that suave charm that forces you to like him, even if you don’t agree with him.”
At the recent Neshoba County Fair stump speaking, a must for all Mississippi politicos, Mabus took a direct stab at Barbour, pointedly remarking, “We teach our children not to cheat in schools. Its time to teach the politicians to stop cheating our schools!” With a mix of Biblical references and oratorical flourish, Mabus outshined Barbour and did severe damage to what could become a knock down, drag out romp on his comeback to the Governor’s mansion.
Musgrove meanwhile balances Mabus’ urbane charm with his country boy, aw shucks attitude. Its an attitude, which Musgrove first successfully employed to serve a term as Lt. Governor from 1995-1999, when he narrowly defeated U.S. Congressman Mike Parker for Governor. Musgrove as Governor brought Nissan to Mississippi which has employed many of the state’s workers and revitalized this mainly agrarian economy. Also, as Governor, Musgrove achieved a feat rarely accomplished which is fully fund education in the state. It also would not be unusual for Musgrove to go back and serve a second term as Lt. Governor.
That brings us to Mike Moore who has been the Democrats’ dream candidate for some time. Moore almost stepped out of retirement and prior to Hurricane Katrina was in line to have challenged, and quite possibly defeated Trent Lott this year. Instead Moore wisely held back for the plum many Mississippi politicians have awaited, an open Senate seat.
With Lott cutting off senior Senator Thad Cochran’s bids for leadership in the U.S. Senate; and the fact Cochran, who has served since 1978, is getting rather old; and because he is once more in the minority position, many believe Cochran will retire. This will clear the way for U.S. Congressman Chip Pickering to step up the ladder. U.S. Congressman Gene Taylor might love to run, but with Democrats controlling the House and a Chairmanship opening up for Taylor, its highly doubful. This clears the primary field for Moore to challenge Pickering. When you compare the two, Moore is the more adept debater, has a statewide organization, and speaks better on the stump than Pickering. One more thing, although the tobacco lobby might weigh in, Moore would be able to easily outraise Pickering.
from BluegrassReport.org
Chandler’s Out
It’s official. Rep. Ben Chandler (D) is not running for governor next year:
For Immediate Release:
11.30.06
Press Availability 4pm today at Congressman Chandler’s Lexington District Office
Chandler Makes Announcement Regarding Political Future
LEXINGTON, KY (November 30, 2006) Congressman Ben Chandler will stay
in Congress and will not run for Governor in 2007. Long and careful
consideration with his family and friends across Kentucky led to
this decision.
I’m making this post because I don’t know much about MS politics, but has he shown any interest in going up against Haley Barbour in 2007, or is he hoping for Cochran to retire?
Could he defeat either Barbour or Cochran as incumbents, or do you think he only stands a chance in an open-seat race?
I hate to rain on your parade, but this isn’t happening. Mabus was a possibility two years ago, but he’s got a job he likes now. Moore is waiting for Thad Cochran to retire from the Senate in ’08, and Musgrove has run into some embarrassing news in the last few months. None of them will challenge Barbour, who is far more imposing an incumbent now than he was before Hurricane Katrina.
Democrats may very well pick up Cochran’s Senate seat in a couple of years, but it won’t be a part of some widespread liberal wave washing over the state. Mississippi remains, and probably always will be, hostile territory for moderates and liberals.
MS – Moore
ME – Allen
KS – One of Sebelius’ lieutenants, perhaps? Would either Moore or Parkinson go for it?
KY – Abramson / Chandler / Mongiardo
MN – McCollum / Rybak