Field & Zogby Polls

The latest California Field Poll has Shwarzenegger up by double digits but still under 50%. Feinstein also up by double digits, with slight slippage within the MOE. Unfortunetly no polling on the “down the ticket” or Congressional races.

11/1/2006 MOE 3.5% Both Polls

Gov:

Shwarzenegger 49 (44)

Angelides 33 (34)

Other 6 (7)

Undecided 12 (15)

Angelides is only leading in LA County-42% to 36% and tied in the SF Bay Area, not good news. Looks like the Gropenator will pull this out but interesting that he still hasn’t popped 50%. 78% believe Shwarzenegger will win.

Sen:

Feinstein 55  (57)

Mountjoy 33  (29)

Other  4 (6)

Undecided 8 (8)

No regional info. Interesting slip though its within the MOE and I only just saw my first Feinstein TV Ad today.

AZ-08


Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Graf (R) 41 (37)

Giffords (D) 54 (45)


CO-07


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


O’Donnell (R) 40 (34)

Perlmutter (D) 54 (45)


CT-02


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Simmons (R) 47 (44)

Courtney (D) 42 (41)


CT-04


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Shays (R) 44 (41)

Farrell (D) 51 (46)


IL-06


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Roskam (R) 40 (38)

Duckworth (D) 54 (43)


IN-02


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Chocola (R) 39 (39)

Donnelly (D) 52 (49)


IN-09


Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Sodrel (R) 46 (38)

Hill (D) 48 (46)


IA-01


Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Whalen (R) 42 (34)

Braley (D) 49 (47)


KY-04


Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Davis (R) 42 (42)

Lucas (D) 45 (36)


MN-06


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Bachmann (R) 52 (46)

Wetterling (D) 42 (43)


NM-01


Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Wilson (R) 44 (40)

Madrid (D) 53 (50)


NC-11


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Taylor (R) 43 (40)

Shuler (D) 48 (51)


OH-18


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Padgett (R) 33 (36)

Space (D) 58 (45)


PA-06


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Gerlach (R) 44 (41)

Murphy (D) 49 (43)


VIRGINIA (2nd CD)


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Drake (R) 51 (42)

Kellam (D) 43 (46)

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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3 thoughts on “Field & Zogby Polls”

  2. Field 2 for 2
    1. CA Gov: Predicted +10%R, actual was +17%R, MOE was 3.5%, Undecided was 15%. Actual for “Others” was 5%, Predicted 6%.

    CA Gov Results
    Republican Schwarzenegger
    (Incumbent)
      4,020,679  56%
    Democratic Angelides
      2,787,531  39%
    Green Camejo
      161,528  2%
    Libertarian Olivier
      94,848  1%
    Peace & Freedom Jordan
      56,007  1%
    American Independence Noonan
      50,715  1%
    99% precincts reporting – Updated: 8:28 p.m. ET 11-13-06 (CNN)

    2. CA Sen: Predicted +28%D, actual was +24%D, MOE was 3.5%, Undecided was 12%. Actual for “Others” was 6%, Predicted 4%.

    CA SenFeinstein
    (Incumbent)
      4,193,833  59%
    Republican Mountjoy
      2,479,517  35%
    Green Chretien
      115,816  2%
    Libertarian Metti
      110,594  2%
    Peace & Freedom Feinland
      95,332  1%
    American Independence Grundmann
      62,266  1%
    99% precincts reporting – Updated: 8:28 p.m. ET (CNN)>/blockquote>

    Zogby:
    1. Way OFF=5: IL-06 Duckworth-D +14%. Actual: Roskam-R +2%.
    2.  CT-02 Simmons-R by 5%. Actual- Courtney-D by 0.1%.
    CT-04 Farrell-D by 7%. Actual- Shays-R by 3%.
    PA-06 Murphy-D by 5%. Actual- Gerlach-R by 2%.
    NM-01 Madrid-D by 9%. Actual Wilson-R by 0.1% (not called yet).
    KY-04 Lucas-D by 3%. Actual- Davis-R by 7%.
    Right-On (within MoE)=5:
    OH-18  Space-D by 25% Actual- Space-D by 24%
    IN-09 Hill-D by 2%. Actual Hill-D by 4%
    NC-08 Shuler-D by 5% Actual- Shuler by 8%
    MN-06 Bachmann-R by 10%. Actual- Bachmann-R by 8%
    CO-07 Perlmutter-D by 14%. Actual- Perlmutter-D by 13%

    3.Correct but margin off=4:

    VA-02 Drake-R by 8%. Actual- Drake-R by 2%.
    IA-01 Braley-D by 7%. Actual – Braley-D by 12%
    IN-08 Donnelly-D by 13%. Actual- Donnelly-D by 8%.
    AZ-08 Giffords-D by 17%. Actual- Giffords-D by 12%.

    Hmmm. On Zogby, I’d say not so hot given the odds. 9 Correct calls out of 14, but actual margins were outside the MOE on 4 of those. I’ll continue to take Zogby with the proverbial “grain of salt”.

  3. occurred in a numberof Districts that Zogby called very wrong.
    After having the personal experience of talking to three voters who had experienced this littlle form of hell, there is little doubt in my mind that these robocalls cost us some seats.

     

    Of those targeted by the NRCC with this illegal voter suppression, these 14 fantastic candidates lost:

      CA-04 – LOST Charlie Brown $5,036, $29,913
      CO-04 – LOST Angie Paccione  $243,557, $167,854
      CO-05 – LOST  Jay Fawcett $141,160
      CT-04 – LOST Diane Farrell $31,117, $26,105
      IL-06 – LOST Tammy Duckworth $18,095
      KY-04 – LOST Lucas $2,799, $539,240
      NM-01 – LOST Patricia Madrid $414,826, $4,039
      NY-29 – LOST Eric Massa  $176,626
      NV-02 – LOST Jill Derby  $7980, $177,679, $44,241
      NV-03 – LOST Hafen $8,000, $382,580
      OH – 02 – LOST Wulsin $22,411, $19,153, $3,017, $5,824, $2,182
      OH-15 – LOST Kilroy  $314,740
      VA-02 – LOST Kellam $175,528
      WA-08 – LOST Darcy Burner $5,981

      CT-02 – TIED Courtney $12,150, $8,750
      GA-08  – TIED Jim Marshall  $2,707, $77,131
      PA-06 –  TIED Lois Murphy  $3,506
      PA-08 – NOW DECLARED WINNER! Pat Murphy $1,981, $8,479
      WY-00 – TIED Trauner  $241,078

      Those 9 who won despite this voter suppression were:

      CT-05 – WON Chris Murphy $11,843 
      FL-22 – WON Klein $31,578
      IA-01 – WON Braley  $25,394, $303,685
      MN-01 – WON Tim Walz  $35,248
      NC-11 – WON Heath Shuler  $2,948
      NH-02 – WON Paul Hodes $8,000
      NY-24 – WON Arcuri  $3,636, $5472
      PA-10 – WON Carney $2,537
      TX-22 – WON Lampson $235,338
      Via Daily Kos (Kos) and (dotcommodity)

    Not in Zogby Poll above, but an Exemplary Loss none the less:

    Florida’s 13th District, where Christine Jennings is currently locked in a recount battle. The final tally shows her down 386 votes. In the last three weeks of the election, the NRCC spent $58,326.78 on robo calls against Jennings…
    (Kos 11-13-06)

    I was wondering why the “Wave” results appeared so strange to me.
    Why seats that should have fallen to us(given the comparables), seemingly went the other way. Factoring in the robcalls it all makes sense. It may not be a matter of Zogy being screwy, we may have to factor-in the impacts of robocalling dirty tricks into any polling we see in the future(unless we get it to go away that is).

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