Wrapping up this series…. states with very late filing dates – after mid-July
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
NY has 29 congressional districts: 23 Democrats and 6 Republicans
VT has 1 district, with a Democrat
HI has 2 districts, both Democrats
DE has 1 district, with a Republican
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.
The districts held by Democrats are
Confirmed
dist Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
HI-01 D+7 .00 Abercrombie No Safe
HI-02 D+10 .01 Hirono No Safe
NY-01 D+3 .69 Bishop Yes Safe
NY-02 D+8 .68 Israel No Safe
NY-04 D+9 .52 McCarthy No Safe
NY-05 D+18 .09 Ackerman No Safe
NY-06 D+38 .03 Meeks No Safe
NY-07 D+28 .08 Crowley No Safe
NY-08 D+28 .23 Nadler No Safe
NY-09 D+14 .16 Weiner No Safe
NY-10 D+41 .04 Towns Only primary Safe for Dem
NY-11 D+40 .04 Clarke No Safe
NY-12 D+34 .05 Velazquez No Safe
NY-14 D+26 .30 Maloney No Safe
NY-15 D+43 .09 Rangel No Safe
NY-16 D+43 .07 Serrano No Safe
NY-17 D+21 .17 Engel No Safe
VT-AL D+9 .84 Welch No Safe
Trivia: HI-01 has the highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino: 75%. NY-11 is the smallest district in the country (just 12 sq. miles). NY-15 and 16 are tied for the most Democratic Cook PVI in the country.
Those held by Republicans
DE-AL D+5 .50
DE is a small state, made outsize by politics
Castle, first elected in 1992, is the last remaining Republican in the state government; he’s among the most moderate Republicans. In 2006 he was held under 60% for the first time since he got in. He might yet retire, as he has been ill.
Confirmed challengers: Jerry Northington who is possum on dailyKos and Karen Hartley-Nagle
NY-03 D+3 .75
NY-03 is the middle of Long Island – the eastern part of Nassau and the southern edge of the western part of Suffolk
King, first elected in 1992, was held to 56% in 2006 against David Mejias, even though King spent more than twice as much
There are no confirmed challengers – very disappointing, this is a competitive district!
NY-13 D+1 .30
NY-13 is mostly Staten Island, which is technically NY City, but is really different from the rest of the city
Fosella, first elected in 1997, has had closer races lately: He got 59% in 2004, and 57% in 2006. In 2006, he outspent Stephen Harrison by 11-1.
Harrison is running again; as is Domenic Recchia (no web site).
Summary
DE-AL might be competitive; if Castle retires, it’s a likely pickup
NY-03 ought to have a good challenger.
NY-13 is competitive.