Eighteen Democratic House Candidates with a Cash Edge in Republican Seats

I was looking through the year end reports for the 30 Democrats elected to formerly Republican seats in 2006 and comparing their cash on hand totals to the Republican challenger with the most cash (with the exception of Mark Foley).  The result showed Democrats with a mighty $27 million to $5 million edge for the group.   Of course, we elect House members on a district by district basis.  And the new Democratic reps lead in every district, in all but a handful by an overwhelming margin.  It was pretty clear that cash was going to be a major “defensive barrier” for Democratic control of the House in 2009 and beyond.  Several other questions came to mind.

First, were there any Democrats seeking re-election who had a cash on hand deficit.  Well, yes, there was one.  One in the whole country.  Nikki Tsongas trailed Jim Oganowski $10,900 to $43,500 but Tsongas had raised and spent $2.6 million in the recent special election.  The figure seemed meaningless.  More like a donor respite than donor fatigue.  Second, how many Republican seats were in a similar deficit?

The answer, was skewed somewhat by the recent spate of retirements.  In some districts, a recent open seat pitted an active Democratic candidate against a testing the waters Republican without much of a warchest.  But that, too, is a reality.  Oh, yes.  The answer is eighteen seats, nearly a tenth of the Republican total.  Here is the list with some comments including the district PVI via Benawu’s listings.

CT-4   PVI = D+5

Democrat Jim Himes shows $800,248 in the bank; New England’s last Republican House member, Chris Shays trails with $797,413.  There will be no Lieberman on the ballot with Shays coat tails either.

NJ-3   PVI= D+3.3

The Democratic candidate of choice for an open seat, John Adler shows $590,595 in the bank.  No Republican dented the FEC reports for this open seat currently held by Jim Saxton.

NJ-7   PVI=R+1

Mike Ferguson, 37 year old Mike Ferguson, gave up the ghost and left this seat open.  Linda Stender, who lost a hard fought election by 3,000 votes in 2006, leads the money race with $502,305 in the bank.  Former first daughter Kate Whitman leads the Republicans with $200,535.  Mommy was barely elected governor -twice.  She “cut” taxes but left a mess.  (Property taxes are very high here.  A later rebate was accompanied by roads badly in need of repair in a state with the highest median income in the country.)

NY-25   PVI=D+3

When Jim Walsh unexpectedly announced his retirement he left Dan Maffei with $439,243 in the bank and no opponent.  Looking good.

NY-29   PVI=R+5

Eric Massa has the cash edge in a rematch against Randy Kuhl.  Massa’a got $414,603; Kuhl has $362,513.  Kuhl has his problems and this was a lot closer than the PVI last time around.

AZ-1   PVI=R+2

In a rare battle of two women, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick has nearly a 2-1 edge over Republican Sydney Ann Hay in a battle to succeed the embattled Rick Renzi.  If Democrats hold their seats and win this, they will gain control of Arizona’s House delegation by a surprising 5 to 3 margin.  

CA-4   PVI=R+11

Scandal plagued John Doolittle is off to retirement but Charlie Brown has an early, but solid cash lead with $483,489 to Erik Egland’s $78,700.  Off his near miss in 2006, Brown has the name recognition, too.  It’s a good year, Charlie Brown.

ID-1   PVI=R+19

This may be the biggest stunner on the list.  Freshman Wingnut Bill Sali has $100,023; Walter Minnick has $311,168.  Walter Minnick?

IL-11   PVI=R+1.1

Debbie Halvorson has $393,764; Tim Balderman trails with $50,414 in an open seat battle.  Once more, looking good.

IL-14   PVI=R+5

This is deceptive.  Both candidates are coming off hard primaries.  As of 12/31, millionaire Democrat Bill Foster led multi-millionaire and self-funder Jim Oberweis with $508,792 to $396,975.  Oberweis has already poured $1.6 million into his campaign.  

MI-7   PVI+R+2

Freshman winger Tim Walberg ($438,005) is outraised by Mark Schauer.  Is there an upset brewing?  Only cash seems to stand in the way of gaining seats in Michigan.  

MO-9   PVI+R+7

Kenny Hulshoff recently announced he was running for governor making this an open seat and giving at least a temporary lead to Judy Baker ($101,042).  A girl can dream, can’t she?  Let’s see if Baker gains some traction, here.  

NM-1   PVI=D+2

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Heinrich has a solid  lead over Republican Darren White: $277,146 to $172,558.  Incumbent Heather Wilson, like all the NM Congress critters, is running for the open Senate seat.  We should win this one.  Should anyway.

NM-2   PVI=R+6

Democrat Harry Teague has $362,735; Republican Ed Tinsley has $283,890.  The fall matchup is certainly not set, however.

OH-2   PVI=R+13

Mean Jean Schmidt puts this one in play.  Her 2006 opponent, physician Victoria Wulsin has $344,315; Schmidt lags with $124,857 and is now the leading Republican after “Heimlich maneuvered out.”  It may be easier taking this than keeping it.  Let’s go from there.

TX-10   PVI=R+13

TV judge Larry Doherty has the drop on incumbent Michael McCaul with $267,475 to $115,642.  Doherty first has to get by Dan Grant in a Democratic primary battle.

WA-8   PVI=D+2

In a re-match, Darcy Burner has banked $607,143; incumbent Dave Reichert has $462,828.  Reichert’s local notoriety as the sherriff who put away the Green River Killer is fading; so may be his career in the House.  Burner held him to a virtual tie last time and enjoys better name recognition and more cash than in 2006.  Will this be her year?  Quite possibly.

WY-At Large   PVI=R+19

Gary Trauner nearly pulled this one off in 2006.  He’s got $353,290 in the bank and no Republican has emerged to take the place of Barbara Cubin (Dick Cheney without the charm, who has $1,399 left should she change her mind).  Republicans have to defend two Senate seats in Wyoming and that may also help Trauner.

At least 13 others are reasonably close and many more will become competitive.  The NRCC is cash strapped and the DCCC has a large edge.  Money wise, it looks like a promising cycle at this point.