Who’s Running in New Mexico? After the Filing Deadline Edition

Yesterday was the filing deadline in New Mexico. So today, we definitively know who is running for the Senate, First Congressional District, Second Congressional District and Third Congressional District seats on for both the Democratic and Republican nominations.  

And every single seat has at least one competitive primary for a very simple reason: All three House seats in New Mexico and a Senate seat are all open seats without an incumbent running.  Crazy times in New Mexico.

So  the final, definitive edition of Who’s Running in New Mexico for 2008, and a little bit of analysis, is below the fold:

A version of this post appears at New Mexico FBIHOP

Senate Race

Tom Udall is the only candidate running for the Senate seat on the Democratic seat.  Leland Lehrman, who expressed his interest in running for the seat even after Udall jumped into the race, did not file in time to run for office as a Democrat.   Tom Udall will face absolutely no primary competition, not that Lehrman was expected to be even a speed bump, let alone an obstacle.  With his impressive fourth-quarter fundraising, Tom Udall has the momentum and looks to be the favorite to win the seat even nine months out from the elections.

On the Republican side, it will be a battle royale between Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  Both currently serve as New Mexico Representatives, and both officially filed Tuesday.  The primary between the two should be very interesting; Steve Pearce has the support of the far-right Club for Growth, but Wilson is an experienced campaigner who has survived tough battles before.  However, she has never faced a tough battle in a primary.  Tom Benavides did not file his papers to run again, surely much to the chagrin of Jay Miller.

First Congressional District

The First Congressional District, currently held by Republican Heather Wilson, is in central New Mexico and contains much of the Albuquerque area.  Albuquerque is New Mexico’s largest city. The district also extends into rural areas of surrounding counties, but the largest voting bloc is in Albuquerque.  It has a PVI of D+2, but has had a Republican Representative for its entire existence.

Among Democrats, Martin Heinrich, Michelle Lujan-Grisham, Rebecca Vigil-Giron, Jessica Wolfe and Robert Pidcock are all vying for the Democratic nomination.  Heinrich is clearly the frontrunner here, and should win the Democratic primary easily; he has the most money, the most momentum and the most established and visible campaign so far.  Heinrich’s campaign looks to be actually in gear and running, while the others are waiting for something to jumpstart theirs.  In the case of Vigil-Giron and Wolfe, they both only jumped in the race within the last couple of weeks.

For Republicans, things are much more simple.  Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and State Representative Joe Carraro are vying for the Republican nomination.  White has the support from the Republican establishment, but Carraro is a firebreather who could give White headaches throughout the campaign.  Carraro will get significant free press just because he is charismatic and likely to say something… let’s just say not smart.  White is the favorite on the Republican side, however.

Second Congressional District

The Second Congressional District is in the highly conservative Southern New Mexico and is currently held by far-right Republican Steve Pearce.  The district is larger than the state of Pennsylvania and includes population centers like Las Cruces, Alamagordo, Roswell and Socorro.  The district has a PVI of R+6 and has always been held by a Republican.

There are four Democratic candidates running for the Second Congressional District.  Harry Teague, Bill McCamley, Al Kissling and Frank McKinnon all will run for the Democratic nomination for the seat.  McCamley and Teague are in the top tier while Kissling and McKinnon are in a lower tier.  Teague will have significant institutional and financial support among the oil and gas industry in southern New Mexico, but McCamley has been working hard, traveling throughout the large district, meeting Democrats in every county so far.

For Republicans… wow, things are crazy.  Even though Bob Cornelius did not file and instead endorsed Terry Marquardt, there are still six candidates running.  Aubrey Dunn, Jr., Ed Tinsley, C. Earl Greer, Monty Newman, Greg Sowards and the aforementioned Marquardt are all running.  Phew. This one should be a doozy.

Third Congressional District

The Third Congressional District is highly Democratic and is currently held by Democrat Tom Udall.  It includes all of northern New Mexico including the capital city of Santa Fe.  It has conservative population centers such as Clovis and Portales in Eastern New Mexico and Farmington in the Four Corners area.  But the rest of the district is a Democratic stronghold, including Taos and Las Vegas.  The district was briefly held by a Republican, but that was a fluke and besides that has been held by either now-Governor Bill Richardson or Udall for the rest of its time as a district.  It has a PVI of D+6.

Multiple Democrats are vying for the Democratic-leaning Third Congressional District.  Ben Ray Lujan, Don Wiviott, Harry Montoya, and Jon Adams are all running for the seat.  The conventional wisdom goes that Lujan is the favorite to win.  Wiviott and Shendo, Jr should pose a bit of a challenge to Lujan; Adams and Montoya are lower-tiered candidates.

Among Republicans… well, it doesn’t really matter in this heavily Democratic-seat in what looks to be a heavily-Democratic year. For what it’s worth, Marco E. Gonzales and Dan East are both running for the right to be the Republicans to lose in the general election.