Author: fbihop

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

Click on photos for larger versions.  More available on my Flickr page, as always.

Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel of Illinois was in the state and saw a good chunk of it in a short period of time — at least up and down I-25.  

I’m not quite sure where he met up with Second Congressional District candidate Harry Teague for a fundraiser, but Emanuel stopped by Gabriel’s Restaurant north of Santa Fe for a fundraiser and quick talk with the press (which is to mean myself and Steve Terrell of the Santa Fe New Mexican).  

Emanuel spoke about the big year Democrats had in 2006 and how we won; it wasn’t just the war.

Yes, the war was a big factor. But the deteriorating economic condition in the middle class was a big factor in the fact that the Democrats took back the House and the Senate.  And it will again be a contributing factor because people realize that under the Republican Party stewardship, the middle class has been hurt.

After the Ben Ray event, it was time for Emanuel to hop in his rented car (I assume) and head down I-25 to Albuquerque for a press conference with Martin Heinrich, Santa Fe County Sheriff Greg Solano, Captain Ahren Griego IAFF Local 244 and other firefighters from IAFF Local 244.  

“We can fund our labs, and create new jobs, and we can fund our police departments across the United States,” Emanuel said in his short speech. “I’m going to be here to help Martin because it’s time for a change.”

President Bush took a beating — not a good sign for his staunch supporter, Darren White.

I got to speak to Heinrich for a few minutes after the event.  “It was a proud day to stand up there with them and to say I’m going to stand with them on these issues where we’ve seen President Bush and his allies cut back the COPS program dramatically, cut things like the Byrne Grants, do things that directly impact our first responders in a negative way.”

Byrne Grants help fund drug enforcement for the police.

But the cuts went deeper for Solano.  After all, he has to deal with the cuts to the funding; he’s a sheriff and knows firsthand what they do.

“Santa Fe County used to get enough money to get about 10-15 bullet proof vests a year.  Which wasn’t enough,” Solano told FBIHOP. “We have a department of about 90 officers, it wasn’t enough to fund it all — but it helped a lot.  Last year, we got funding for one vest, $500.  This year, we don’t expect any funding at all.”

This caused Solano to do something he “never would have imagined” doing a year ago — backing the opponent of a law enforcement officer for a Congressional seat.  

“You would think that Darren White, with his connections to Bush would have spoken up for us,” Solano said.  “And I’ve never heard of him doing so.”

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

The Tom Udall fundraising machine is still running strong, with no signs of stopping — if anything, the fundraising efforts are gaining steam.

Democratic candidate Tom Udall has raised over $2.1 million in the second quarter for his Senate run according to a press release from his campaign.

In the second quarter, which ended at the end of the day on June 30, Udall raised more than he had in any other quarter so far.

“We are so grateful to Tom’s strong, statewide base of committed supporters for making this our best fundraising quarter so far,” said Udall campaign manager Amanda Cooper in a press release. “Because of their generous support our campaign is able to knock on thousands of doors, have a strong statewide presence, and dominate the airwaves with hard-hitting TV ads.”

Udall’s most recent ad is “Tragedy” which speaks about his work on DWI laws.  The ad also invokes the infamous Gordon House crash where House killed four people while driving drunk nearly 20 years ago.

Since the May 14 pre-primary reporting deadline, Udall raised nearly $1.5 million. He had raised a little less than $640,000 between April 1 and May 14.

The campaign was not able to give firm numbers on how much they had spent in the quarter but will be able to do so when they file.  The filing deadline for all U.S. House and Senate races is July 15.

Udall’s previous quarterly high in fundraising was $1.3 million in the first quarter of this year.  In both the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, Udall outraised both of his Republican opponents, Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  Steve Pearce won a close primary election over Wilson, while Udall was unopposed.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

It looks like Tom Udall is the big winner of the money race again.  

His campaign sent out a press release minutes ago touting the fact that he will enter the general election with $2,876,030 cash on hand.  Nearly three million dollars cash on hand — before June.

From the release:

Udall reported total expenses of $431,865 and finished the period with $2,876,030 cash-on-hand.

This is the third consecutive reporting period Udall has outraised both of his potential GOP opponents combined. He reported a strong total of over $1.3 million in the first quarter of 2008, which ended March 31, and in the final months of 2007 he raised over $1 million.

Not only did Udall raise more money than both combined, his cash on hand advantage is tremendous.  

The AP reported on the numbers from Pearce and Wilson.  

Pearce’s campaign spent more than $964,000 from April 1 to May 14, according to a fundraising summary released today by his campaign.

Wilson spent more than $776,000 during the same period.

Wilson, however, has a larger stockpile of campaign cash for the closing weeks of the hotly contested race.  Her campaign cash balance stood at $712,476 as of last week; Pearce reported $247,207 cash on hand.

Pearce raised about $357,000 during the latest campaign finance reporting period, and Wilson received contributions of about $291,000.

Combined,t he two have a cash on hand balance of just $959,683 heading into the general election — and with lots of money being spent by the two on television ads in the final days leading up to the primary, it’s not  of the realm of possibility that the winner could come out of the race actually in debt.

Even if the numbers stay where they are now, Udall has three times the cash on hand of Wilson and Pearce — combined.  Well, actually 2.996854 times the money of the two Republicans combined.

Not the way one wants to start the general election.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

Hat tip to Heath Haussamen

For the second quarter in a row, Tom Udall outraised both Republican candidates — combined.  The $1.3 million he raised in the first quarter was about $350,000 more than the $943,000 the Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce campaigns raised combined.

I wrote his fundraising success in the fourth quarter of 2007 was astonishing.  To do so two quarters in a row is beyond astonishing.  It shows that Udall clearly has more momentum than either Pearce or Wilson.

Wilson topped the Republican side with $517,000, or less than half of Udall’s take, while Pearce raised just $426,000; or slightly more than one third of Udall’s fundraising number.  

Pearce reported spending $433,000 in the first quarter and ended with slightly more than $850,000 cash on hand.  In other words, Pearce had a negative cash flow in the first quarter of 2008 despite raising more money than he did in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Udall has $2.6 million in the bank, half a million dollars more than Wilson has raised total in the campaign.  

Yesterday was the filing deadline in New Mexico. So today, we definitively know who is running for the Senate, First Congressional District, Second Congressional District and Third Congressional District seats on for both the Democratic and Republican nominations.  

And every single seat has at least one competitive primary for a very simple reason: All three House seats in New Mexico and a Senate seat are all open seats without an incumbent running.  Crazy times in New Mexico.

So  the final, definitive edition of Who’s Running in New Mexico for 2008, and a little bit of analysis, is below the fold:

A version of this post appears at New Mexico FBIHOP

Senate Race

Tom Udall is the only candidate running for the Senate seat on the Democratic seat.  Leland Lehrman, who expressed his interest in running for the seat even after Udall jumped into the race, did not file in time to run for office as a Democrat.   Tom Udall will face absolutely no primary competition, not that Lehrman was expected to be even a speed bump, let alone an obstacle.  With his impressive fourth-quarter fundraising, Tom Udall has the momentum and looks to be the favorite to win the seat even nine months out from the elections.

On the Republican side, it will be a battle royale between Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  Both currently serve as New Mexico Representatives, and both officially filed Tuesday.  The primary between the two should be very interesting; Steve Pearce has the support of the far-right Club for Growth, but Wilson is an experienced campaigner who has survived tough battles before.  However, she has never faced a tough battle in a primary.  Tom Benavides did not file his papers to run again, surely much to the chagrin of Jay Miller.

First Congressional District

The First Congressional District, currently held by Republican Heather Wilson, is in central New Mexico and contains much of the Albuquerque area.  Albuquerque is New Mexico’s largest city. The district also extends into rural areas of surrounding counties, but the largest voting bloc is in Albuquerque.  It has a PVI of D+2, but has had a Republican Representative for its entire existence.

Among Democrats, Martin Heinrich, Michelle Lujan-Grisham, Rebecca Vigil-Giron, Jessica Wolfe and Robert Pidcock are all vying for the Democratic nomination.  Heinrich is clearly the frontrunner here, and should win the Democratic primary easily; he has the most money, the most momentum and the most established and visible campaign so far.  Heinrich’s campaign looks to be actually in gear and running, while the others are waiting for something to jumpstart theirs.  In the case of Vigil-Giron and Wolfe, they both only jumped in the race within the last couple of weeks.

For Republicans, things are much more simple.  Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and State Representative Joe Carraro are vying for the Republican nomination.  White has the support from the Republican establishment, but Carraro is a firebreather who could give White headaches throughout the campaign.  Carraro will get significant free press just because he is charismatic and likely to say something… let’s just say not smart.  White is the favorite on the Republican side, however.

Second Congressional District

The Second Congressional District is in the highly conservative Southern New Mexico and is currently held by far-right Republican Steve Pearce.  The district is larger than the state of Pennsylvania and includes population centers like Las Cruces, Alamagordo, Roswell and Socorro.  The district has a PVI of R+6 and has always been held by a Republican.

There are four Democratic candidates running for the Second Congressional District.  Harry Teague, Bill McCamley, Al Kissling and Frank McKinnon all will run for the Democratic nomination for the seat.  McCamley and Teague are in the top tier while Kissling and McKinnon are in a lower tier.  Teague will have significant institutional and financial support among the oil and gas industry in southern New Mexico, but McCamley has been working hard, traveling throughout the large district, meeting Democrats in every county so far.

For Republicans… wow, things are crazy.  Even though Bob Cornelius did not file and instead endorsed Terry Marquardt, there are still six candidates running.  Aubrey Dunn, Jr., Ed Tinsley, C. Earl Greer, Monty Newman, Greg Sowards and the aforementioned Marquardt are all running.  Phew. This one should be a doozy.

Third Congressional District

The Third Congressional District is highly Democratic and is currently held by Democrat Tom Udall.  It includes all of northern New Mexico including the capital city of Santa Fe.  It has conservative population centers such as Clovis and Portales in Eastern New Mexico and Farmington in the Four Corners area.  But the rest of the district is a Democratic stronghold, including Taos and Las Vegas.  The district was briefly held by a Republican, but that was a fluke and besides that has been held by either now-Governor Bill Richardson or Udall for the rest of its time as a district.  It has a PVI of D+6.

Multiple Democrats are vying for the Democratic-leaning Third Congressional District.  Ben Ray Lujan, Don Wiviott, Harry Montoya, and Jon Adams are all running for the seat.  The conventional wisdom goes that Lujan is the favorite to win.  Wiviott and Shendo, Jr should pose a bit of a challenge to Lujan; Adams and Montoya are lower-tiered candidates.

Among Republicans… well, it doesn’t really matter in this heavily Democratic-seat in what looks to be a heavily-Democratic year. For what it’s worth, Marco E. Gonzales and Dan East are both running for the right to be the Republicans to lose in the general election.

Tom Udall is a part of the True Blue New Mexico donation campaign.

This post is crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

I wrote earlier about Tom Udall’s impressive fundraising total: more than a million dollars in a single quarter for a candidate in a Senatorial race.  A race for Senator in New Mexico.  This isn’t exactly New York or California where we are accustomed to seeing politicians raise huge amounts of money for these races.  Even important federal races; while Heather Wilson raised nearly $5 million in 2006, she didn’t do so in the fourth quarter of 2005.

But then comes some news that Udall not only raised an insane amount of money; it was actually more than both GOP candidates combined in the third quarter.

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall raised more than $1 million for his Senate bid during the fourth quarter of 2007, beating the combined total raised by the two leading Republicans in the race, U.S. Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson.

Udall raised more than a million dollars, as I mentioned before.  So what did Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce raise in that same time period (actually, more on the time period later)?

Read more under the fold.

Wilson came in second in fundraising for the quarter, raising just under $517,000. She spent just under $194,000 and begins 2008 with almost $1.1 million in the bank.

[…]

Pearce reported raising just under $426,000 for the quarter, spending just under $206,000 and having almost $820,000 on hand.

Remember, the two Republican candidates will be forced to spend money on a primary battle, while Udall will be free to conserve and continue to accrue money during the same time period. Did someone say time period?

Udall entered the race in November.  Wilson entered within 48 hours of Domenici’s retirement in early October.  Pearce entered mid-October.  So Udall had less time to raise money, and still outraised the combined efforts of both his rivals.

Astonishing.

It seems like it is once again time to take a look at who, exactly, is running for the four open seats (three House and one Senate) here in New Mexico.  The last update was more than a month ago!  Some important dates: the filing deadline is February 12.  The pre-primary nominating conventions are March 15.  The primaries are on June 3.

On to the races!

Senate Race

Democrats

• Tom Udall
  

• Leland Lehrman

Tom Udall is the odds-on favorite to win.  Lehrman will have trouble getting his way onto the primary ballot.

Republicans

• Steve Pearce
  

• Heather Wilson

These two candidates will be fighting it out.  Both are currently in the House and both are experience campaigners.  And, perhaps best for Democrats, neither are above a little bit of dirty politics — even in the primary.

For the Congressional races, go below the fold.

First Congressional District

Democrats

• Martin Heinrich
  

• Michelle Lujan-Grisham
  

• Robert Pidcock

Heinrich is the current favorite in this race.  He has the momentum, the endorsements and — this is important — his campaign seems to have a plan.  Lujan-Grisham has been largely our of the public eye.  And Pidcock… well, I really don’t know anything about him.

Republicans

• Darren White
  

• Joe Carraro

The two were involved in a PR disaster after their secret debate this weekend.  White is the favorite to win, and has the backing of the Republicans in DC.  But Carraro is outspoken and will make things interesting, if not competitive.

Second Congressional District

Democrats

• Al Kissling
  

• Bill McCamley
  

• Frank McKinnon
  

• Harry Teague

Harry Teague has the support of the oil and gas industry, which is a big boost in Southern New Mexico.  He’s a conservative Democrat, and will surely have a big bundle of cash.  McCamley will also have a good amount of cash to campaign in Southern New Mexico, and he has been on the campaign trail for a while.  He is going out to communities and speaking to people.  The Kissling and McKinnon seem to be fringe candidates at this point.

Republicans

• Bob Cornelius
  

• C Earl Greer
  

• Aubrey Dunn, Jr
  

• Ed Tinsley
  

• Monty Newman
  

• Greg Sowards
  

• Terry Marquardt

Yes, seven candidates for the Republicans.  I am not even going to attempt to delve into who is the favorite here… but my personal favorite is Greg Sowards, but only because of his campaign slogan.

Third Congressional District

Democrats

• Jon Adams
  

• Ben Ray Lujan
  

• Rudy Martin
  

• Harry Montoya
  

• Benny Shendo, Jr
  

• Don Wiviott

Lujan looks to be the favorite here.  He is hispanic and his father, the Speaker of the House, has northern New Mexico support.  But Wiviott has the cash, and has pledged to spend a big chunk of his own money on the campaign.  Benny Shendo, Jr is a Native American, and they comprise 19 percent of the district.  Very interesting.

Republicans

• Marco E. Gonzales
  

• Dan East

It doesn’t matter which one wins in June.  This seat will stay Democratic.

An effort of the New Mexico Netroots including Democracy for New Mexico and New Mexico FBIHOP.

For more, see Democracy for New Mexico’s post and words from one of the candidates himself, Martin Heinrich with guest blogs at both of the blogs.

We are in a unique situation in New Mexico.  There is an open Senate seat as well as three open House seats.  The other Senate seat is already held by a Democrat (Jeff Bingaman).  This means four out of five federal seats are up for grabs. In other words, we have an opportunity to make a True Blue New Mexico.  

Today, on January 23, the George W Bush administration, current and former employees alike, will do their best to get Republicans elected.  Dick Cheney will hold a fundraiser in DC for Senate candidate Steve Pearce.  He has already held  a similar DC fundraiser for Heather Wilson.  And none other than Karl Rove himself will headline a fundraiser today. Rove will be in Artesia, NM to raise money for the New Mexico Republican Party.

You can do your part by donating to great progressive Democratic candidates at our ActBlue page.  So why are we doing this drive now?

All this is money — which  will come from wealthy Republicans — will be used to blunt the possibility of a True Blue New Mexico.  So what can we do?  Show them their $5000/PAC, $2000/person dinners with Vice President Dick Cheney are no match for our people powered politics.

So who are the candidates we’re supporting with the True Blue New Mexico donation drive?  

For Senate, the choice is obvious.  Tom Udall is currently a true progressive voice in the House. Udall will be a true progressive voice in the Senate when he is New Mexico’s next Senator.  Not only will this be a great change from Sen. Pete Domenici, but much better than the two main Republican choices.  The ultra-conservative Steve Pearce and fake-moderate Heather Wilson would be disasters for New Mexico.

In the First Congressional District, Martin Heinrich is another great progressive voice.  As an Albuquerque city councilor, Heinrich spoke out against the War in Iraq when it was not a popular thing to do.  He has won environmental awards and has called for an Apollo-type program for energy independence.  And Heinrich spearheaded a successful effort to raise the minimum wage in Albuquerque.  He is a true progressive.

The same cannot be said of his likely general election opponent, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White.  White was the Bernalillo County Chair of the Bush/Cheney campaign in 2004.  In other words, he is partially responsible for helping deliver the county to Bush in 2004.  He does not even have the illusion of moderation that Heather Wilson has; as one person told me, “He isn’t even Heather Wilson — he’s Steve Pearce.”  Not what the First Congressional District needs — now or ever.

In the Second Congressional District, we are lucky enough to have another great candidate in Bill McCamley.  McCamley has experience in Southern New Mexico; he is a Doña Ana County Commissioner and a New Mexico State Alum.  Lobo fans (like myself) will have to give him a pass on that last one, but only because he has great stances on the issues and would make a fine Representative.

McCamley’s Republican opponents will surely be ensnarled in a costly and bitter primary.  The Republicans see this as a safe Republican seat; but last election, it took an incumbent Republican (Pearce) a ten-to-one money advantage to reach 60 percent against an underfunded and unknown Democratic opponent.  This seat isn’t outside the realm of possibility, and if anyone can deliver it, it would be McCamley.

The Third Congressional District is a bit more muddled.  It’s a problem that most districts in the country would love to have: too many great progressive candidates any one of which can win the general.  So instead of asking people to donate to one progressive candidate in the primary, we ask that money be donated to the NM-03 Democratic Nominee Fund.  The money raised for this will go to the eventual Democratic nominee after the June 3 primary elections.

So once again, please donate to some great Democratic candidates and show  Dick Cheney and Karl Rove that they can’t decide who wins elections by top dollar fundraisers.

Speaker of the House Ben Lujan (D) says he will support easier ballot access once again according to Heath Haussamen.

“Yeah, I will support any possible way of getting more people to be able to participate in the process,” Lujan said. “The more the merrier.”

This is an about-face from previously when Lujan only grudgingly admitted it might be needed; when he said he would instead push for an “instant run-off”, and then only if no candidate received the 20 percent support necessary.

More under the fold.

Originally posted at New Mexico FBIHOP

Now, after political pressure from all sides, Lujan seems to be changing his tune a bit.  This change by Lujan just ahead of the January 15 start to the Legislative Session may be because of a potential backlash against his son, Ben Ray Lujan (D).  Ben Ray is running for Congress in the Third Congressional District, and is currently viewed as the frontrunner.  Because of that, he may be the one with the most to gain from less people on the primary ballot.

There is an additional hurdle to jump, however.  To implement such a bill before the June pre-primary nominating conventions, the bill would need to receive at least two-thirds of the votes in both the state House and Senate.  This is because it would be an emergency clause.

This is doable, however, because of broad bipartisan support for such a measure.  In the Senate, both party leaders support such a bill.  This is because the new rule could effect both Republicans and Democrats in the coming elections — Democrats in the Third Congressional District and Republicans in the Second Congressional District.

Lujan deciding to support such legislation should help.  Without the support of the the Speaker of the House, a bill has virtually no chance of being heard let alone passing.

After the announcement of Martin Chavez’ departure, to start the weekend, it only seemed fitting to end the weekend with another rundown of just who is running for the House and Senate in 2008.  With all a Senate seat up for grabs along with all three House seats, it promises to be an exciting year in New Mexico politics.

The primaries will be held on June 3rd for all these races, but the preprimary nominating conventions will be held March 15.  It is at the preprimary nominating convention where the candidates attempt to get on their party’s ballot for the primary.

We’ll start with the big race, where it looks like the field is set — though that’s what I said last month and we’ve had a big change since then.

Senate

For the Democrats, the clear frontrunner is Tom Udall, who only gained more momentum when Martin Chavez dropped out of the race.  Also in the race is alternative magazine publisher Leland Lehrman who is running a campaign from the far-left.

On the Republican side of things, it is Representative Steve Pearce against Representative Heather Wilson.  Both are, like Udall, giving up their House seats to take a run at being a US Senator.  

There is an Independent in the race, Zach Boatman, a teacher at Santa Fe High School.

First Congressional District

The First Congressional District seat is in central New Mexico and serves Albuquerque. It has been held by Republicans since the state received a third Congressional District in 1969.  The seat has been held by Republican Heather Wilson since 1998.  Wilson has been rocked by scandals, but is now running for the open Senate seat (above).  The district has a PVI of D+2.4.

The Democrats in the race are led by Martin Heinrich, with Michelle Lujan-Grisham a step below the former Albuquerque city councilor.  Two lesser-tier challengers are also in the race, Jon Adams and Jason Call.

Prominent author Alisa Valdez-Rodgriguez is also considering a run at the seat.

For Republicans, the former Bernalillo County Bush/Cheney campaign chairman and sheriff Darren White is the frontrunner, followed by the, shall we say, outspoken state Sen. Joe Carraro.  

Also considering the race, though it looks increasingly less-likely she will enter with each passing day, is Janice Arnold-Jones.

Second Congressional District

New Mexico’s Second Congressional District encompasses much of New Mexico south of I-40, including the cities of Las Cruces, Roswell, Carlsbad, Hobbs and Socorro.  The seat has been in the hands of Republicans since 1981 and Rep. Steve Pearce has held the seat since 2003.  Pearce is running for the Senate seat (above).  The district’s PVI is R+5.7.

For Democrats, the crowded field of challengers is led by State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, who had been mentioned as a possible challenger to Pearce for previous cycles.  Also in the race are Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County commissioner Harry Teague. Retired Roswell school teacher Frank McKinnon and Presbyterian minister Al Kissling round out the field of official entrants in the race; the last two will have a tough time reaching the 20 percent number at the preprimary convention.

Two Democrats still have not made a decision on running; State Sen. John Arthur Smith and State Rep. Jeff Steinborn.

For Republicans, this is a chance of a lifetime; it is a seat that is solidly Republican and has been held by a far-right Republican for years.  Former Bernalillo County GOP executive director Bob Cornelius, rancher Aubrey L. Dunn Jr. and businessman Ed Tinsley have all officially thrown their hat in the ring for the Republican nomination.  

The Republicans who have been reported to be considering taking a run at the seat are Domenici staffer Clint Chandler, Sierra County GOP chair C. Earl Greer and former state representative Terry Marquardt.  No matter what, this looks to be a crowded primary race on both sides.

Third Congressional District

New Mexico’s Third Congressional District came into existence in 1983 and has been held by Democrats ever since then except for a term from 1997-1999.  The district covers most of Northern New Mexico, including Santa Fe, most of Rio Rancho, Taos and Farmington.  Rep. Tom Udall has held this seat since 1999 and is leaving the seat to run for Senate (above).  The PVI for the district is D+5.5.

This is the seat most friendly to Democrats in the state, and is considered a “safe Democrat hold” by all political observers.  In the race so far are Santa Fe green developer Don Wiviott, Santa Fe County commissioner Harry Montoya and  secretary for the state’s Indian Affairs Department Benny Shendo Jr.  

But the big name in the room is a Democrat who is still officially in the “consideration” stages — Public Regulation Commission chairman Ben Ray Lujan.  Lujan’s father is Ben Lujan, the Speaker of the state House.  Also considering are Santa Fe County sheriff Greg Solano and former state Rep. Patsy Trujillo.

As of yet, no Republicans have officially entered the race to be the sacrificial lamb to take on whichever Democrat wins the nomination.  But considering are LANL engineer Ron Dolin, and state Rep. Brian Moore.  Dolin lost to Udall by an incredible margin in 2006.