Author: fbihop

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

The two most dispirited people after hearing the news of Martin Chavez dropping out of the Senate race have to be Republican Senate candidates Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  The two will almost undoubtedly be involved in a contentious and expensive Republican primary, while Udall coasts to easy victory in the Democratic contest.

That will allow Udall to raise more money and have near-universal support among Democrats in the state.  Udall would have almost undoubtedly received a majority of the support of Democrats in the primary.  But the damage Chavez could have done while in the race attacking Udall while attempting to gain traction could have proved fatal to Udall’s chances in the general election.

More under the fold.

But thanks to Chavez’ dropping out of the race, Udall moves even further ahead of his Republican colleagues in the House.  The Udall camp must have been positively giddy to hear the news; to keep that happiness in the Udall campaign offices, pitch in a few bucks to the Udall campaign.  C’mon, it won’t hurt.  

But what about Chavez?  There was some fear among Democrats that Chavez would again change races (he previously abandoned his gubernatorial run for the Senate run) and go for the open First Congressional District seat.  Currently, Martin Heinrich, Michelle Lujan-Grisham and Jason Call are in the race on Democratic side.  I have heard from some people in the know (and Kos agrees) that Chavez will not go for the Congressional seat.

Will he go back to his ill-fated race for governor?  Doubtful. Chavez had a reason for dropping out of the race for governor, and I’m not sure if all that much has changed for his reasoning; if anything, Denish looks even more entrenched as the frontrunner and heir presumptive to Richardson’s post.

So that means Marty is done politically after his second term as mayor and Kos will get his fondest dream, right?  After all, he is term-limited and there aren’t really any other positions in the state to run for (I don’t think I can see Chavez as the Lt. Gov.).  Nope.  He might run for a third term as mayor, challenging the term limits.

Remember this piece from the Albuquerque Tribune a year ago?  

The City Charter might limit the mayor to two consecutive terms, but Martin Chavez doesn’t think that would stand up in court.

Chavez, who is serving his second consecutive term as mayor, said last week he might consider trying for a third term, or running for governor or the U.S. Senate.

Governor?  Tried, failed.  Senate? Tried, failed?  Third term as mayor? …

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Another SurveyUSA poll was released, and this time, they included primaries in their polling.  Not only that, they polled an amazing 1700+ people, resulting in some ridiculously-low MOEs (below three percent).  So these are some pretty accurate polls.  enough jibber-jabber, let’s get straight to the numbers.

In the Republican primary, Heather Wilson is surprisingly strong and is trouncing Steve Pearce, 56-37.  Yes, you read that correctly, Wilson is already twenty points ahead of her Southern NM counterpart, with only four percent undecided.

In the Democratic primary, Tom Udall is similarly ahead of Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez, by a 62-32 margin.  This is even larger than the internal poll released by Udall, which showed Udall ahead of Chavez by a 50-30. Since then, Santa Fe small businessman and green-developer Don Wiviott has dropped out of the Senate race to pursue Udalls now-open House seat.

In the general, Udall is still looking strong, though the gap has begun to close a bit between Udall and his Republican opponents. Chavez, however, continues to bounce around the polls.

Trendlines from polls taken [10/27-10/30] and (10/05-10/08).

Pearce (R) 40% [–] (37)
Udall (D) 54%  [–] (55)
Undecided 5% [–]

Pearce (R) 52% [43] (54) 
Chavez (D) 42% [48] (35)
Undecided 7% [9]  (9)

Wilson (R) 41% [–] (38)
Udall (D) 56%  [–] (56)
Undecided 3% [–]

Wilson (R) 47% [44] (48) 
Chavez (D) 46% [48] (44)
Undecided 7% [8] (8)

Where Udall really distinguishes himself is among the self-described moderates and liberals.

Against Pearce, Chavez garners the support of just 4 percent of moderates and 68 percent of liberals.  Compare this to Udall, who has the support of 63 percent of moderates and 85 percent of liberals.  This is a shocking disparity for Chavez, showing that liberal Democrats really, really do not like Chavez.

The same can be seen against Heather Wilson.  Chavez has the support of just 51 percent of moderates and a better 73 percent of liberals. But Udall eclipses both of those numbers, with 66 percent of moderates and 86 percent of liberals. 

Similar numbers can be seen among party identification, with Udall doing better among both Democrats and Independents than Chavez.  And, it goes without saying, Udall does better than either Wilson or Pearce in these categories as well.  Among Independents, the only match-up where the Republican does better is Pearce vs Chavez.

The polls were taken 11/16/07 through 11/18/07 by SurveyUSA.

(From the diaries. Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP. – promoted by James L.)

Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez has been touting his roots to New Mexico.  Just take a look at his bio on his campaign site:

A native son of New Mexico, Martin Chávez was born and raised in Albuquerque, New Mexico. His family’s roots in New Mexico have been traced to the 1500s.

Many New Mexicans who have had family in the state for generations are proud of their “native roots”.  These are the people who can name their family back to the Spanish settlers.  But the Albuquerque Tribune asked an interesting question: What role will being the only “native son” play in the Senate election?

After doing a bit of research, probably not much.

“When given a choice, New Mexicans usually prefer a native son.”
-Mark Fleisher, Martin Chavez Campaign Manager

It sounds great.  Sounds completely plausible; after all, even Stephen Colbert planned on running for President (but only in South Carolina) as a “favorite son.”

But in New Mexico, where you were born or grew up does not seem to make much of a difference in whether or not New Mexicans will vote for you.  After all, as the Tribune article wrote:

[A]ll three of the other leading contenders for the Senate – Reps. Tom Udall, a Santa Fe Democrat, Heather Wilson, an Albuquerque Republican, and Steve Pearce, a Hobbs Republican – were born outside New Mexico.

They are all Representatives with multiple elections under their belt — and have defeated “native sons” along the way.

Most recently, Heather Wilson defeated Patricia Madrid in the 2006 election by less than a thousand votes.  While Madrid was born in Las Cruces, NM, Wilson only moved to Albuquerque in 1991. 

In the Second District, Steve Pearce defeated native son Gary King (Stanley, NM) in 2004.  And King even has the pedigree of a father (three-time governor Bruce King) who was also born in New Mexico.  Pearce did, however, move to Hobbs at the age of two.

Udall has easily defeated all comers in the Third Congressional District in recent years, but his closest call came against then-incumbent Bill Redmond; a Chicago native.  Before Redmond, the seat was held by now Gov. Bill Richardson.

Richardson was born in Pasadena, CA, and did not move to Santa Fe, NM until 1978.  He ran for Congress against longtime incumbent Manuel Lujan in 1980 and lost.  He succeeded in 1982.  Richardson defeated John Sanchez (55-39) in 2002; Sanchez was a native of Albuquerque.  He then easily defeated Santa Fe-born John Dendahl in 2006, with a record margin.

The last time Chavez ran for statewide office, for governor in 1998, he lost to Gary Johnson.  Johnson was born in South Dakota.  I could not find, however, when exactly Johnson moved to New Mexico.

While Chavez will continue to tout his nativeness to the state, in the grand scheme of things… it probably doesn’t make a whole lot of a difference.

With Tom Udall entering the race for the open Senate seat of the retiring Pete Domenici, there is yet another open House seat in New Mexico.  And Santa Fe green developer Don Wiviott is going to switch his campaign over from the Senate race to the race for the now-open Third Congressional District seat.

Democracy for New Mexico first reported on the change, saying, “Don intends to seriously explore running for Congress in NM-03.”  Later yesterday, Heath Haussamen got a quote from Wiviott saying he would officially change over to the House race.

Read what he had to say under the fold.  Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Wiviott said Udall is a friend, in addition to being his congressman. He will defer to him in the Senate race, but said he plans, in running for Udall’s House seat, to stay in the fight to end the Iraq war, protect the environment and improve the education system.

Wiviott loaned himself $400,000 and raised an additional $137,189, so he will enter the House race with a significant amount of campaign cash to play with.  It will be some time before we find out exactly who will oppose Wiviott.  We know, however, that state Rep. Peter Wirth will not seek the job.

As for the Democratic side of the Senate race, Jim Hannan said immediately following Domenici’s retirement a month ago he would drop out of the race if Udall stepped in.  But Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez and Mother Media editor Leland Lehrman both vowed to stay in the race for the US Senate seat.

Chavez’s campaign manager was confident in Chavez despite the Udall entry into the race.

Chavez’s campaign manager Mark Fleisher said today that the mayor believes he absolutely can beat Udall. Fleisher says the mayor is known around the state probably as well as Udall.

Udall and Chavez’ opponent Lehrman issued a press release explaining why he would not back off his run for Senate:

Although his votes on the environment and civil liberties make us all proud, his Washingtonian willingness to avoid tough issues means that he cannot be trusted with the leadership role a US Senator must take.

One example Lehrman gave was Udall’s vote to table a bill which would start impeachment hearings on Vice President Dick Cheney, a proposal set forth by Dennis Kucinich.

The announcements for people running for New Mexico’s Second Congressional District open seat are starting to come in at a fast and furious pace.  The current Representative, Steve Pearce (R), is leaving the seat to take a crack at the now-open Senate seat.

Today, State Rep. Jose Campos and restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley announced their intentions to run.  Jose Campos has political experience as a State Rep for four years and mayor of Santa Rosa for nearly a decade.  Tinsley’s political experience comes in the form of running against Pearce in 2002, when he lost to Pearce while running for the open seat.

More under the fold.  Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Campos joins fellow Democrats Bill McCamley and Al Kissling in the race.  Another Democrat in the race is Frank McKinnon, a former schoolteacher.

They are expected to be joined soon by State Rep Joseph Cervantes and (officially) by Harry Teague.  Teague already told Democratic officials of his intention to run, but will make it public within the coming week.  And Cervantes, who has been rumored in every cycle in the recent past to run for the seat, is widely expected to also throw his hat in the ring.

On the Republican side of things, Tinsley is the first announced candidate, but will not be the last to opt for a shot at the open seat. 

Sid Goddard, chairman for the Republican Party of Doña Ana County, said he’s aware of about eight to 12 Republicans who are considering joining the race, but, other than Tinsley, none has stepped forward definitively yet. Potential candidates are likely gauging support, their competition and their odds, he said.

What makes this so interesting is not every candidate will get their names on the ballot.  In fact, at most, four candidates from each party will get their names on the ballot, thanks to a new law enacted by the state legislature this past session.  To get his/her name on a ballot, each candidate must garner the support of 20 percent of convention goers.  Previously, candidates who did not reach the 20 percent threshold were able to gather signatures on a petition to get their name on the ballot. 

No longer. And with three Democratic candidates already in the race, two more ready to jump in and possibly double-digit numbers of Republicans… things could get interesting before the March pre-Primary convention.

Actually, things seem to be getting interesting already when it comes to the Second Congressional District.

In an ABQJournal opinion piece by Michael Coleman, Sen. Pete Domenici is compared to someone he would rather have no connection to — Sen. Larry Craig from Idaho.

Craig, as you may know, is the Idaho Republican arrested on June 11 by an airport police officer and pleaded guilty to misdemeanor disorderly conduct. Craig, according to police, used “a signal used by persons wishing to engage in lewd conduct” while in a men’s airport bathroom according to the police report. You can read the full police report here. Craig has since said he would like to rescind his guilty plea.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

So what does Craig have to do with Domenici?  Coleman lists how they are politically similar; both conservative Republicans.  Both supported the “dangerous and irresponsible” Yucca Mountain bill.  And both are supporters of President Bush.  Oh yeah, and “they’ve each hired a defense attorney to help absolve them of separate problems with the Senate Ethics Committee.”

This is a comparison Domenici — and any politician — will do anything to avoid.  He did himself no favors among the Republican base when he urged restraint in late August and asked Republican lawmakers to not rush to kick Craig out of the Senate.

“We cannot rush to judgment here,” Domenici said in a statement provided to the Journal. “The action being taken by the Senate Republican leadership is a good first step toward getting the facts. It’s important that we allow the legal process to run its course and the Senate Ethics Committee to conduct a thorough and fair investigation.”

Of course, the legal process did run its course; Craig pleaded guilty to the offense.  It is no surprise Domenici wants to drawn-out Senate Ethics Committee process to run its course as well — Domenici is under preliminary investigation by that same committee for his improper (though improper in a much different way than Craig’s actions) phone calls to David Iglesias.

This was bad timing for Domenici.

A day later, CNN and other news outlets released a tape of Craig’s interrogation by police after his arrest. In an effort to distance himself from Craig, his guilty plea and that squirmingly uncomfortable interrogation tape, Domenici- who is up for re-election- quickly announced that he would shed $2,500 in campaign cash given to him by Craig’s political action committee.

Oops.

Even more troublesome for Domenici, when the various Republican scandals are listed (you can see a selection of them here), Domenici’s name is in the same list as Craig and Ted Stevens.  Not exactly a distinguished list.

It seems that Pete Domenici and Heather Wilson are now both in trouble from both sides of the political spectrum. While the two toers-of-the-GOP-party-line generally don’t expect support from the progressive Dems, when the hawkish Republicans go after them… then they know they’re in trouble.

And this group is spending some serious cash on the two New Mexico Republicans.  According to a list e-mailed from Americans United for Change, reprinted at Daily Kos, the group is spending over $250,000 on these ads targeting Wilson and Domenici.  This is the fourth-most being spent in a single area, remarkable considering two of the other targets are in Philadelphia, PA and Washington DC — much more expensive media markets.  This group really is going after Domenici and Wilson.

I won’t get into the problems with the right-wing ad itself — I’ll let Americans United for Change do that, in a video you can see below the fold, but instead discuss its effects on Domenici and Wilson.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

The funny thing about the attack from a group of Bush supporters is it is based on, for Domenici and Wilson at least, what they have said in the press.  Not on what they have actually done, but what they’ve said.  They’ve talked about a new direction in Iraq, they’ve publicly tried to soften their position on Iraq… but then their actions, their votes, betray them.

Take a look at Domenici on “War and Peace”.  Every single time he has voted on a bill concerning the war in Iraq, he has gone with the hawkish “stay the course” message.  He even was among the majority who voted to protect the Halliburtons of the world by voting “NO on investigating contract awards in Iraq & Afghanistan.”  In other words, Domenici was not only for no-bid contracts, he was also for not investigating the waste of money afterwards.  Not exactly fiscally conservative, is he?

It’s no surprise to anyone with any knowledge of Domenici’s past that he is so hawkish.  But it is a bit ironic that the right-wing group

Heather Wilson, the Congressional Representative for New Mexico’s First Congressional District, has been making the rounds around the state.  Wilson has been making public appearances in, among other places, Las Cruces and Los Alamos; both areas well outside her congressional district.

Joe Monahan draws the obvious conclusion:

Read it under the fold. Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

She’s recently been in Clovis, Los Alamos and Las Cruces. Now one of the Alligators has an unconfirmed report that ABQ GOP Rep. Heather Wilson has had an appearance slated for Farmington. You know the score, but it bears repeating. Wilson is positioning herself for the US senate seat held by Senator Domenici–just in case. Domenici is indeed running for a seventh term in ’08, but frail health is the opponent that could keep him out of the race. He is 75.

Some Democrats complain that Wilson is in denial after having only won her ’06 reelect by less than 900 votes and that appearing around the state is a sign of arrogance. But with the Dems set to start a heated primary to see who will win the right to challenge her in ’08, Wilson is largely out of their line of fire, giving her the opportunity to roam freely. A US senate opening in NM is a once in a generation event, if that. If Wilson has any ambition for the seat, she must stay positioned, regardless of the current political odds. Ditto for GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce who is doing the same, but further below the radar than the determined congresswoman.

  I don’t quite agree with the first sentence of the second paragraph — what Democrats are “complain[ing]” about Wilson being in denial?  Of course she is, she is not safe in her own seat, but Democrats will not “complain” about this.

Instead, they will view it as an opportunity to not only pick up a seat in the House, but also a seat in the Senate, if another viable statewide candidate steps in from the Democratic side. 

But Wilson wouldn’t even be safe in the Republican primary.  She would face stiff competition from the right in Steve Pearce.  If Domenici retires (a big “if” at this point), there would be a fierce battle between Wilson and Pearce.  And Wilson’s posturing at being a “moderate” (even though she is far from one) will hurt her in a primary. 

So Wilson, on her Tour de New Mexico, has to delicately balance between her purported position as a moderate and a position as a hardcore conservative which would help her in a hard-fought primary. 

Of course, all this is moot if Domenici steps aside after the primary in favor of Wilson.  This wouldn’t be the first time — remember the ol’ Damron-Dendahl switcheroo?

[Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP and MyDD.

Heath Haussamen has the goods on a letter Rep. Steve Pearce sent to supporters asking for cash.  Cash to stave off Bill McCamley, Al Kissling and the DCCC.

It is no surprise the ultimate far-right GOP representative would resort to scare tactics even in fundraising for his own campaign.  But the tone of his fear of the DCCC is palpable.  He almost dismissed McCamley and Kissling out of hand, but read what he had to say of the DCCC below the fold.

Another liberal — or two, or three — could jump into the race. Or worse, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) could get involved in our race.

That’s the last thing we need. They have the funds and power to make a real impact in any race they choose and we need to keep them out of the Second District.  They are guaranteed to target us unless we make the hurdle too tall to climb.

Of course, a DCCC entrance into the race would only result if there was a strong candidate.  I believe McCamley could be the strong candidate; the “spin” (as Haussamen calls it) against McCamley shows Pearce is wary of McCamley as well. 

Pearce attacks McCamley in the letter without using his name, as if McCamley is Beetlejuice.  Pearce writes:

We have one opponent who has a left-wing record including a history of voting for tax increases and fighting against prayer at county commission meetings…

Of course, this is an outright exaggeration.  Not exactly a lie, but it is pretty darn close.  Haussamen, unlike Pearce’s people, actually looked into McCamley’s votes.

McCamley did vote for one tax increase, to raise salaries for sheriff?s deputies and create paid firefighter positions, but so did all commissioners, including two Republicans, and the action had widespread bipartisan support in the community, including the endorsement of Republican District Attorney and Pearce supporter Susana Martinez. McCamley also voted to allow voters to decide whether to raise taxes to help fund Spaceport America, but that?s not the same as voting for a tax increase.

Pearce also tries to play to his base with the prayer shot.  Haussamen looks into the truth on that as well, saying McCamley proposed “a policy modeled after that in the U.S. House of Representatives, which requires non-sectarian prayer.” McCamley challenged Pearce to put his money where his mouth is and take up the issue with the House chaplain.

Kissling was given similar treatment. 

And another opponent who favors the death tax and has said he’s “more scared of our own American National Guard than Islamic terrorists!” Unreal!

What is unreal is Pearce taking quotes out of context and using GOP frames on every issue.  Every issue.

First, the “death tax” knock.  The estate tax, as it is known, only applies to estates of $2,000,000 or more.  It jumps up to $3.5 million in 2009.  And only the money over $2 million is taxed.  In other words, unless you are in a top-tax bracket, this will never affect you.

Some even call it the Paris Hilton tax cut.

As for the quote,

Kissling was speaking specifically about his belief that National Guard soldiers should not have been policing American airports after 9/11.

Republicans like Pearce thrived in the climate of fear after 9/11.  They continue to fall back on those times to try to pump up the base.

So what can you do to help out the non-crazy candidates running for Congress in the second district?  Contribute!  Go to my ActBlue page and donate your money to the New Mexico Democrats willing to take on Pearce.

(Having a former US Attorney take on Pete Domenici would be almost perfect. But read on to learn more about what sort of candidate John Kelly might make. – promoted by DavidNYC)

UPDATED BELOW

[Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP]

A former United States attorney is considering a run against Senator Pete Domenici. John Kelly, the US Attorney for New Mexico under Bill Clinton, reportedly thinks he should be the Democrat to take on Domenici.

The Albuquerque Tribune:

One Democrat who isn’t running against Wilson is former U.S. Attorney John Kelly. He said Wednesday he’s considering taking on U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici instead.

“I do feel obligated to consider it and am going to look seriously at it,” he said.

Perhaps it is fitting the article was about Heather Wilson’s troubles since Wilson is the other New Mexican member of Congress tainted by the David Iglesias scandal. And perhaps it is fitting that a former USA would go after Domenici, who contributed to the downfall of David Iglesias, the last USA in New Mexico.

Kelly wrote an editorial in March in the ABQJournal denouncing Domenici’s actions.

Read about it below the fold.

Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., in his statement defending his call to then-U.S. Attorney David Iglesias, says that the FBI completed its work on the courthouse corruption case “months” before the call. He expresses concern about “unresolved new federal cases” and the inability of the federal prosecutor to “move more quickly on cases.”

The clear inference is that the courthouse corruption case should have been indicted earlier, and Iglesias is to blame for delaying the process.

Domenici’s critique is misleading and unfair. In a high profile, multi-defendant investigation, the FBI’s report is just the starting point for the prosecutor’s case evaluation. Routinely the prosecutor will want additional interviews conducted, key testimony locked in before the federal grand jury, and pre-indictment pleas negotiated with lower level targets who agree to testify.

He also criticized Iglesias for Iglesias’ failure to report the calls from Wilson and Domenici. Iglesias has admitted this was a critical mistake that he made.

Kelly unsuccessfully ran against Heather Wilson in 2000, losing 51-44. To his credit, he did better than either of Richard Romero’s runs. He still lost by a significant margin, partially because of his role in the Wen Ho Lee scandal. And Domenici was vocal in his disapproval of the Executive Branch’s handling of the Wen Ho Lee situation.

New Mexico’s Republican Sen. Pete Domenici was among numerous Republicans and some Democrats who lashed out at the executive branch in the early days of the Lee saga. At a May 1999 Senate hearing, Domenici portrayed the government’s investigation as a “tragedy of errors.”

While Kelly would undoubtedly be strong in an area of weakness for Domenici – the US Attorney scandal – so would Domenici be strong in an area of weakness for Kelly.

Already, two New Mexican Democrats are going after Domenici, but they are not top-tier candidates; Neither Leland Lehrman or Jim Hannan have any significant political experience. Two other lesser-tier candidates are thinking of a run against Domenici.  Javier Gonzales and Don Wiviott are more qualified than Lehrman and Hannan, but would not strike fear into the heart of Domenici. One more rumored name is Hector Balderas, the current New Mexico State Auditor.

Update:
Jim Hannan wrote in to correct me of my comment that he had no significant political experience.  I’ll let his words speak for themselves.

I served as the political chair of the Sierra Club for five years, oversaw our lobbyist and political endorsements.  I served as Treasurer of the Santa Fe County Democrats.  Together with Bill Sisneros, we raised over $60,000 in the 2000 cycle, money which put Al Gore over the top in New Mexico.  I also served as Chapter Chair of the Sierra Club in New Mexico, under my watch we sued and won a lawsuit against the San Juan Generating Station.

I worked for Mo Udall in Congress in the 1970’s, and have been involved with political and activist campaigns ever since.

My apologies to Mr. Hannan, and in the future I will be sure to list his accomplishments.  My source came from an Albuquerque Tribune article’s sidebar, which listed Hannan’s experience thusly:

He ran unsuccessfully for Santa Fe City Council in 1996.

Again, I apologize.