Here’s part two of the second round of congressional races.
Alaska has one representative – A Republican, and the filing deadline is June 2, primary August 26
Arizona has 8 representatives – 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Filing deadline is June 4, primary Sept. 2
Arkansas has 4 representatives – 3 Democrats and 1 Republican. Filing deadline is March 10, primary May 20
District: AK-AL
Location You know where Alaska is!
Representative Don Young (R) possibly retiring
First elected 1973
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 71-22
Bush margin 2004 61-36
Notes on opponents Benson, the 2006 opponent, raised almost $200K; Young raised 10 times that
Current opponents
1. Ethan Berkowitz
2. Jake Metcalfe
3. Diane Benson
and possibly
Mark Begrich (mayor of Anchorage)
and, if Young retires, a bunch of Republicans.
Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it’s also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.
Assessment Ordinarily, AK is about as Republican as it gets, but this year, all bets are off.
District: AZ-01
Location The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO
Representative Rick Renzi (R) Retiring
First elected 2002
2006 margin 52-43 (remainder libertarian)
2004 margin 59-36 (remainder libertarian)
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Notes on opponents In both 2004 and 2006, there were well-funded opponents
Current opponents
1. Howard Shanker
2. Allan Affeldt
3. Ann Kirkpatrick
several other Democrats are considering it, and several Republicans are running
Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place; and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)
Assessment A lot will depend on the primaries. This could be very competitive.
District: AZ-02
Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix
Representative Trent Franks (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Notes on opponents Neither of the recent two opponents had much money, but Franks didn’t need much, either
Current opponents John Thrasher who was the 2006 challenger.
Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.
Assessment A longshot
District: AZ-03
Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree
Representative John Shadegg (R) retiring
First elected 1994
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 80-20 (against a Libertarian)
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Notes on opponents In 2006, Paine raised less than 100K
Current opponents Bob Lord and an independent
Demographics Not unusual on any of the statisitcs I track
Assessment This is clearly Republican territory, but Shadegg’s retirement throws it open. No Republican has announced yet.
District: AZ-04
Location Phoenix and Glendale
Representative Ed Pastor (D)
First elected 1991
2006 margin 73-24
2004 margin 70-26
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised much money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).
Assessment Safe
District: AZ-05
Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe
Representative Harry Mitchell (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 50-46
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Notes on opponents In 2006, Mitchell ousted Hayworth, despite raising less than Hayworth did (about $2 million to about $3 million)
Current opponents The Wiki lists a lot of potential challengers, declared challengers include Laura Knaperek, David Schweikert, Jim Ogsbury, and Jeff Hatch-Miller
Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).
Assessment Like most freshmen, Mitchell is vulnerable, particularly if the Republicans put up someone less obnoxious than Hayworth.
District: AZ-06
Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state.
Representative Jeff Flake
First elected 2000
2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)
2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Notes on opponents
Current opponents Richard Grayson
Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).
Assessment This is a longshot
District: AZ-07
Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico
Representative Raul Grijalva
First elected 2002
2006 margin 61-34
2004 margin 62-34
Bush margin 2004 43-57
Notes on opponents Drake, in 2006, raised over $100K
Current opponents Gene Chewning
Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)
Assessment Safe
District: AZ-08
Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM
Representative Gabrielle Gifford
First elected 2006
2006 margin 54-42
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Notes on opponents Graf, in 2006, raised $1.3 million, Giffords $2.4 million
Current opponents Timothy Bee
Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)
Assessment Although no freshman is completely safe, Giffords won pretty easily in 2006.
District: AR-01
Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS
Representative Marion Berry (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 67-33
Bush margin 2004 52-47
Notes on opponents Neither raised much money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 17) districts.
Assessment A safe Democratic seat in a swing district
District: AR-02
Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock,
Representative Vic Snyder (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 58-42
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Notes on opponents Parks, in 2004, raised over 500K, almost as much as Snyder, but still lost easily
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on anything I track
Assessment Safe
District: AR-03
Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK
Representative John Boozman (R)
First elected 2001
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 59-38
Bush margin 2004 62-36
Notes on opponents Both races were relatively even (and relatively low) in spending
Current opponents Dave Pritt
Demographics Not unusual on anything I track
Assessment Longshot
District: AR-04
Location Southern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering LA, TX and OK
Representative Mike Ross (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Notes on opponents The 2006 race was Ross vs. Ross; the Democrat raised $1.25 million, the Republican raised almost nothing
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)
Assessment Safe
AR-04 is the southern half of the state. I suppose Pine Bluff is the largest town in it. Otherwise, great as always.
(PS. I don’t know if you’re still keeping up with the “People to Primary” diary, but I just saw it this morning and added some long-winded substantive thoughts there.)
This is a seat that I am really worried about. Tim Bee is a pretty popular state Senator and a recent poll by the NRCC only showed Gifford leading him 36%-30%. We need to do everything possible to protect her.