Congressional races round 2: California

Here’s part three of the second round of congressional races.

California has 53 representatives: 34 Democrats and 19 Republicans

Filing deadline March 7; primary June 3

District: CA-01

Location Northern coast of CA, bordering OR, and going inland to include suburbs of Sacramento

Representative Mike Thompson (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 66-29

2004 margin 67-28 (remainder Green)

Bush margin 2004 38-60

Notes on opponents Neither was well funded

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 47th lowest percentage Black of any district (1.9% Black)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-02

Location The 2nd roughly parallels the first, but is inland, but not on the NV border, includes Yreka and Chico

Representative Wally Herger (R)

First elected 1986

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents In 2006, Sekhon raised $150K to Herger’s $711K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 42nd lowest percentage Black (1.2%); 48th most veterans (15.7%)

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-03

Location One of the many oddly shaped CA districts, this one loops around Sacramento, and then runs west to the NV border

Representative Dan Lungren (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 62-35

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Durston raised $300K to Lungren’s $600K

Current opponents Bill Durston and a Libertarian

Demographics 49th most veterans (15.7%);

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-04

Location North western CA, bordering OR and (mostly) NV

Representative  John Doolittle (R) retiring

First elected  1990

2006 margin 49-46

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Charlie Brown raised $1.6 million (against Doolittle’s $2.4 million)

Current opponents Charlie Brown

Demographics 27th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment Ordinarily, an open seat is easier than running against a Republican. This may be an exception – Doolittle was just so bad.  OTOH, the high number of veterans may make this a better year than most for Democrats in this district, and Brown now has name recognition….. Possible

District: CA-05

Location Sacramento and some suburbs

Representative Doris Matsui (D)

First elected 2005

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Notes on opponents Neither opponent raised money

Current opponents Paul Smith

Demographics One of the few district that has high number of Blacks (14.4%, 106th place), Latinos (20.8%, 75th place), and non-white, non-Black, non-Latinos (21.4%, 13th place).  Only 13 districts have more than 10% of each of these groups (the district that is the ‘most’ this way is TX09).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-06

Location Coastal CA north of San Francisco

Representative Lynn Woolsey (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 70-26

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 28-70

Notes on opponents Neither raised money.  Never had a close race

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $59K, 43rd place) and very Democratic (Cook PVI D+21, 45th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-07

Location Starting NE of San Francisco and continuing NE to Vacaville and east to Pittsburg (no, not the one in PA!) also including El Cerrito and San Pablo

Representative  George Miller (D)

First elected  1974

2006 margin 84-16 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 76-24

Bush margin 2004 32-67

Notes on opponents the 2004 opponent had no money.  No close race since 1974

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 70th fewest Whites (43.2%), with large numbers of Latinos (21.4%, rank = 69), Blacks (16.8%, rank = 95), and others (18.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-08

Location San Francisco

Representative Nancy Pelosi (D)

First elected   1987

2006 margin 80-11

2004 margin 83-12

Bush margin 2004 14-85

Notes on opponents Amazingly, the 2006 opponent raised $150K and got only 19,000 votes. Pelosi hasn’t been under 75% since her first race

Current opponents Dana Walsh

Demographics Fewer veterans than all but 24 districts (6.8%), and more people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White than all but 14 districts. Also the 18th most Democratic district per Cook PVI

Assessment  Vulnerable.  Ha!  Just seeing if you were paying attention.  Safe.

District: CA-09

Location Oakland and Berkeley and some eastern suburbs of San Francisco

Representative Barbara Lee (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 86-11

2004 margin 85-12

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bermudez raised almost $500K.  She got 31,000 votes.  

Current opponents John den Dulk

Demographics Like the 5th, but more so.  35% White (57th lowest), 26% Black (rank = 61), 19% Latino (83rd place), also 15.4% Asian (rank NA). Only 5 districts are more Democratic – and 4 of those are in NY.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-10

Location Eastern suburbs of San Francisco

Representative Ellen Tauscher (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent raised $150K; the 2006 opponent raised $7K. They got the same votes

Current opponents Nicholas Gerber

Demographics The 23rd wealthiest district (median income = $65K), it also has a large number of minorities.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-11

Location Central Valley, east of San Francisco

Representative Jerry McNerney

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, McNerney ousted the odious Richard Pombo; Jerry spent $2.4 million, Pombo spent $4.6 million

Current opponents Dean Andal has declared, others are considering it

Demographics Quite similar to the 10th, with a lot of wealth (median income = $62K) and a lot of Latinos (19.7%, rank = 80).  

Assessment One of the few competitive districts in CA. McNerney will probably have a challenge.  His website is here .

District: CA-12

Location Southern suburbs of San Francisco

Representative currently vacant following death of Tom Lantos.  I don’t know when the special election will be.

First elected  NA

2006 margin Lantos won 76-24

2004 margin Lantos won 68-21

Bush margin 2004 27-72

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None announced, nor any Democrats yet

Demographics 14th wealthiest CD (median income = $70K) with 33.6% people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White (rank = 13); 28.5% Asian.

Assessment Probably safe for Democrats.

District: CA-13

Location The eastern shore of San Francisco Bay

Representative Pete Stark (D)

First elected  1972

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 72-24

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Quite similar to the 12th

Assessment Safe.  Stark is one of the most outspoken liberals in the House.  Go Pete! Tell it like it is. Someone has to!

District: CA-14

Location Coastal CA south of San Francisco, including Menlo Park and Palo Alto

Representative Anna Eshoo (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin 70-27

Bush margin 2004 33-68

Notes on opponents Neither recent one raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Third wealthiest district (only NJ11 and VA11 are higher median income), also 17th highest percentage of non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-15

Location A long, narrow district running north-south, from Santa Clara to Gilroy

Representative Mike Honda (D)

First elected 2000

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 72-28

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Each recent one raised about $50K.  

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another wealthy (median income = $75K) district with lots of minorities (29.2% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-16

Location San Jose and south of San Jose to San Martin

Representative Zoe Lofgren (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 71-26

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Neither recent one raised any money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Very similar to th 15th.  The 8th most non-Latino, non-Black, non-Whites of any district; 6th most outside Hawaii.  

Assessment Safe

District: CA-17

Location Coastal California from Santa Cruz south to Monterrey and beyond

Representative Sam Farr (D)

First elected  1993

2006 margin 76-23

2004 margin 67-29

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent, Mark Risley, raised over $100K, Farr raised about $600K and won easily

Current opponents  Jeff Taylor

Demographics The 31st most Latinos of any district (42.9%)

Assessment Safe.  Farr has quietly worked on district issues, while being solidly liberal on national ones

District: CA-18

Location Central Valley

Representative Dennis Cardoza (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 68-33

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent raised over $100K, but it did him little good.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Like the above districts, the 18th has a lot of Latinos (41.9%, 33rd). Unlike them, it is quite poor (median income = $34K, 84th lowest).

Assessment Safe.  Cardoza is relatively centrist, and wins easily in this swing district.

District: CA-19

Location If there is a middle of CA, this is it

Representative George Radonovich (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 66-27

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent, TJ Cox, raised almost $900K to Radonovich’s $1.1 million.  

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another district with lots of Latinos (28.2%, rank = 55)

Assessment It looks like a long shot, but Radanovich has played fast and loose with some rules.  In 2004, he may have violated campaign finance laws, and he is increasing violation of his pledge to serve only 10 years.  If we can get a strong Latino candidate, it may get interesting.

District: CA-20

Location More of the Central Valley

Representative Jim Costa (D)

First elected 2004

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 53-47

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents His 2004 opponent raised about $1 million.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 25th fewest Whites of any district (21.4%), and 13th most Latinos (63.1%)

Assessment A moderate Democrat in a swing district, Costa seems relatively safe, but this is one of the few California districts that might get competitive

District: CA-21

Location Porterville and north of Porterville in the Central Valley

Representative Devin Nunes (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents Steven Haze, in 2006, raised over $100K to Nunes’ $1 million

Current opponents None declared; Haze has withdrawn.

Demographics Similar to the other Central Valley districts

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-22

Location Runs east-west, the southern edge of the Central Valley

Representative Kevin McCarthy (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Notes on opponents Beery, in 2006, raised no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on variables I track

Assessment Long shot.

District: CA-23

Location A weird, long, skinny strip along the coast from San Luis Obispo to Oxnard, not really contiguous, plus a couple islands.

Representative Lois Capps (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 40-58

Notes on opponents each recent opponent raised about $100K

Current opponents Don Regan

Demographics Another district with a lot of Latinos (41.7%, rank = 34)

Assessment Safe.  Don Regan lost to Capps in 2004

District: CA-24

Location Just interior to most of CA-23

Representative Elton Gallegly (R)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, Martinez raised $131K and in 2004 Wagmer raosed $207K

Current opponents

1. Jill Martinez

2. Chip Fraser

3. Elliot Maggin

and some Republicans

Demographics The 35th wealthiest district (median income = $68K).

Assessment Gallegly has had a couple close races (in 2000 and in 1992) and, if this is a big Democratic year, this could be competitive

District: CA-25

Location

Representative Buck McKeon

First elected 1992

2006 margin 60-36

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents In 2006, Robert Rodriguez raised $230K to McKeon’s $1.4 million

Current opponents Jacquese Conaway

Demographics 56th most Latinos (27.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-26

Location Northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles, east to Upland and Rancho Cucamunga

Representative David Dreier

First elected  1980

2006 margin 57-38

2004 margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents Neither of his recent opponents raised more than about $25K

Current opponents Russ Warner

Demographics A fairly wealthy district (median income = 59K, rank = 44) with a lot of Asians (15.2%)

Assessment Dreier is vulnerable.  His recent opponents raised no money and still held him under 60%.  The DCCC is targeting him, and this is one of the few California Republican districts that has a good chance to go blue.  Warner looks like a good guy, too.

District: CA-27

Location Shaped like an upside-down U, the middle of the U is CA-28.  This is north of Beverly Hills, and includes Northridge and Reseda

Representative Brad Sherman (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 62-33

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Notes on opponents neither raised much money.  Sherman’s first elections were close, but that was a decade ago.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another district with a lot of Asians (10.5%) and Latinos (36.5%, rank = 38).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-28

Location San Fernando valley, including Van Nuys. The 28th is shaped like an upside-down T

Representative Howard Berman (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 74-19

2004 margin 71-23

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents neither raised money.  Berman has been over 66% in every election since 1996

Current opponents No declared Republicans, one Green

Demographics Fewer veterans (5.9%) than all but 13 districts.  Fewer Whites (31.4%) than all but 47 districts. More Latinos (55.6%) than all but 21.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-29

Location Another oddly shaped district, shaped sort of like a number 7, with two antennae coming out of the top.

Representative Adam Schiff (D)

First elected 2000

2006 margin 63-27

2004 margin 65-30

Bush margin 2004 37-61

Notes on opponents In 2004, Henry Scolinos raised $600K to Schiff’s $1.0 million.  Schiff has gotten nearly identical percentages in every race since his first

Current opponents Charles Hahn

Demographics More non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos than any but 5 districts (23.7% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-30

Location Coastal California, Beverly Hills to Malibu

Representative Henry Waxman

First elected  1974

2006 margin 71-26

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents In 2004, Victor Elizalde raised $262K to Waxman’s $455K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Wealthy (median income = 61K, rank = 44), lots of Asians (8.8%), few veterans (8.3%, rank = 41).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-31

Location Yet another oddly shaped district, something like a W on its side, centered on Hollywood

Representative Xavier Becerra (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 80-20

Bush margin 2004 22-77

Notes on opponents Vega in 2004 did not raise much.  No close race since his first

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer veterans than any other district (3.7%), fewer Whites (9.8%) than any except NY16, more Latinos (70.2%) than any but 5 districts. More Democratic (per Cook PVI) than any but 32.

Assessment Safe.

District: CA-32

Location Yes, it’s another oddly shaped district, it’s shaped a little like NY State, in the northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles.  

Representative Hilda Solis (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 85-15 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Notes on opponents neither raised money. Never had a close race

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Like the 31st, but not quite as extreme.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-33

Location This one is shaped sort of like a teakettle in Los Angeles.  This is one of the smallest districts in the US (just 48 square miles).

Representative Diane Watson

First elected  2001

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 89-11 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 16-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents David Crowley, and a primary opponent who lost to Watson in 2006 by 91%-9%

Demographics Relatively poor (median income = $32K, 46th lowest), with many minorities (29.9% Black, rank = 37; 34.6% Latino, rank = 33) and very Democratic (Cook PVI = D+36, rank = 7)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-34

Location Los Angeles, centering on Broadway

Representative Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin 74-26

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents neither raised money. Roybal-Allard has had no close races

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer Whites than any but 3 districts; more Latinos than any but 3 districts (TX15,16 and 28) and lower median income ($30K) than any but 24 districts.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-35

Location Los Angeles, including Gardena, South Central, and Inglewood

Representative Maxine Waters (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 84-8-8 (against two minor parties)

2004 margin 81-15

Bush margin 2004 20-79

Notes on opponents No money.  No close elections

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 3rd fewest Whites (10.4%), 32nd most Blacks (34.1%) and 26 most Latinos (47.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-36

Location Los Angeles along Santa Monica Bay and the Pacific

Representative Jane Harman (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 63-32

2004 margin 62-33

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised much.  No close elections since 2000.  Harman was also in Congress from 1992-1998, with very close elections each time

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 27th most non-Blacks, non-Whites, non-Latinos

Assessment Safe

District: CA-37

Location Long Beach

Representative Laura Richardson (D)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA (she won her 2007 race 67-25, with almost no one voting – a total of about 21,000 people)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 25-74

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Similar to the other Los Angeles districts

Assessment Maybe a primary, but safe for Democrats

District: CA-38

Location Another weirdly shaped district, shaped sort of like a 7 on it’s side, with the middle of the 7 in East Los Angeles, then extending south about 8 miles to Norwalk, and east about 20 miles to Pomona

Representative  Grace Napolitano (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Notes on opponents No money.  Never had a close race

Current opponents none declared

Demographics Again, similar to those above

Assessment Safe

District: CA-39

Location Horseshoe shaped district including Whittier, Cerritos and Lynwood

Representative Linda Sanchez (D)

First elected   2002

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 61=39

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents Tim Escobar, in 2004, raised $750 K, almost identical to what Sanchez raised

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st fewest Whites (21%), 18th most Latinos (61.2%), modest income (median = $45K, 153rd place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-40

Location An inverted horseshoe, it caps CA47 and includes Cypress, Fullerton and Orange

Representative Ed Royce (R)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hoffman raised $140K, Royce got 10 times that

Current opponents :

1. Florice Hoffman, the 2006 opponent (although her website is down)

2. Christina Avalos (note to the web savvy – she looks like a good candidate, but her website could use some help)

Demographics Demographically, hard to distinguish from the Democratic districts in the area

Assessment A long shot, but Avalos might bring in more of the many Latinos in the district

District: CA-41

Location A wedge shaped district, running east-west. In the west, it includes Redlands, Highland and Yucalpa (the eastern edge of the Los Angeles basin) and runs west through desert to the border of AZ and NV

Representative Jerry Lewis (R)

First elected 1978

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents :

1. Rita Ramirez-Dean

2. Tim Prince

3. Louis Contreras

4. Patrick Meagher

Demographics Lots of veterans (16.1%, 39th place)

Assessment There were rumors Lewis would retire, but he is apparently running.  This is a Republican district, but Lewis is a crook, connected with Duke Cunningham and other crooks.  Who knows?

District: CA-42

Location A funnel shaped district, with the top running from La Habita to Chino, and the point in Mission Viejo

Representative Gary Miller (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents Recent opponent had no money; Miller’s winning margins have been growing

Current opponents :

1. Ron Shepston who blogs at Daily Kos under the name CanYouBeAngryAndStillDream.  YES WE CAN (where have I heard that?)

2. Ed Chau

Demographics 13th wealthiest district (median income = $70K), with a large Asian population (15.9%)

Assessment Another Republican district, but Miller may also be a crook: He seems fond of claiming that his land was taken under eminent domain, and thus dodging taxes, and is under FBI investigation. He also uses his staff to run his personal errands…..uh oh.

District: CA-43

Location Runs east-west from Ontario to San Bernadino

Representative Joe Baca (D)

First elected  1999

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money

Current opponents Scott Folkens (a Republican) and possibly a couple Democrats in a primary (see the Wiki)

Demographics Similar to many of the California districts: Lots of Latinos, few veterans, few Whites.

Assessment Safe for Democrats; Baca is fairly centrist, so the primaries might be worth looking at

District: CA-44

Location runs NE to SW, with the northeasternmost city being Riverside, and the southwesternmost being San Clemente

Representative Ken Calvert (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-35

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents Louis Vandenberg ran both times, neither time did he raise money

Current opponents :

1. Louis Vandeberg

2. Bill Hedrick

3. Regilio Morales

Demographics Another district with many Latinos (35.0%)

Assessment A Southern California Republican.  Ethical and legal troubles.  Calvert also has ties to Duke Cunningham. He was also found in a car with a prostitute, with her head in his lap, and both of them partially unclad.  He said they were just talking.  hmmmm. Where are his ears?  

District: CA-45

Location A long narrow district running east west near the southern end of CA, from Moreno Valley in the west to the AZ border

Representative Mary Bono (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents David Roth, in 2006, raised $722K, Bono raised about double that

Current opponents :

1. Paul Clay (another website that could use some help)

2.  David Hunsicker (no site)

Demographics Also heavily Latino (38.0%, rank = 35)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-46

Location Coastal CA including Long Beach and Costa Mesa, and some islands

Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-33

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents Jim Brandt ran twice and neither time did he raise $100K

Current opponents Debbie Cook

Demographics Another wealthy district (median income = $62K, rank = 34) with a lot of Asians (15.4%)

Assessment Another Southern California Republican with ethics problems – he’s tied to Abramoff.  Still, this is a Republican district.  

District: CA-47

Location East of the 46th and south of the 40th (both Republican) is the 48th (which is Democratic). It runs north-south, including Anaheim and Santa Ana

Representative Loretta Sanchez (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents Both Nguyen (2006) and Coronado (2004) were relatively well funded. In 1996, Sanchez pulled off a great upset, beating Robert Dornan by 984 votes

Current opponents Dina Biederman  

Demographics More Latinos (65.3%) than all but 11 districts, also 13.9% Asian.  Fewer Whites (17.3%) than all but 10 districts, fewer veterans (5.2%) than all but 9.

Assessment  Should be safe

District: CA-48

Location Coastal California from Newport Beach south to Laguna Niguel.

Representative John Campbell (R)

First elected  2005

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 58-40

Notes on opponents In 2006, Steve Young raised $400 K, Campbell 5 times that

Current opponents Steve Young again.

Demographics The 15th wealthiest district (median income = $70K)

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-49

Location A V shaped district, running from Oceanside (on the coast) to Parris and into San Diego county

Representative Darrell Issa

First elected  2000

2006 margin 63-33

2004 margin 63-35

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised more than $100K

Current opponents Robert Hamilton

Demographics Another heavily Latino district (29.5%, 52nd place)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-50

Location Coastal California from Carlsbad south to Solana Beach and a little beyond, and inland to Escondido, surrounding San Diego.

Representative Brian Billbray (R)

First elected  2006, but was in House 1994-2000

2006 margin 53-43

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents In 2006, this must have been one of the most expensive races (I haven’t recorded these data).  Billbray spent $2.6 million, his challenger Francine Busby, spent almost a million more than that

Current opponents Nick Leibham

Demographics Relative wealthy (median income = $59K, 40th place).

Assessment A long shot.  

District: CA-51

Location The southwest corner of CA, bordering Mexico and AZ

Representative Bob Filner (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 62-35

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents Each raised about $100 K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 22nd most Latinos (53.2%), 23rd fewest Whites (21.3%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: CA-52

Location An L shaped district, running from the San Diego suburbs east and then north through mountains and desert

Representative Duncan Hunter (R) retiring

First elected  1980

2006 margin 65-32

2004 margin 69-28

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised $100K

Current opponents

1. Mike Lumpkin

2. Jim Hester

3. Vicki Butcher

and a bunch of Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment It’s a fairly Republican district, but in a Democratic year, who knows?

District: CA-53

Location Central San Diego, and some suburbs

Representative Susan Davis (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 66-29

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised a bit under $100K

Current opponents Delicia Holt

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe