Here’s part seven of the second round of congressional races. Earlier parts are here
Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans
Filing deadline was Feb 22, primary is May 6
Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans
Filing deadline is March 14, primary is June 3
Kansas has 4 representatives: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans
Filing deadline is June 10, primary is August 5
District: IN-01
Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles
Representative Peter Visclosky (D)
First elected 1984
2006 margin 70-27
2004 margin 68-32
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Mark Leyva, who lost in 2004 and 2006
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: IN-02
Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo
Representative Joe Donnelly (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Notes on opponents Donnelly ousted Chocola while spending less than half what he spent (Donelly – $1.5 million, Chocola $3.4)
Current opponents Luke Puckett or Tony Zinkle
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Not completely safe, but Chocola was harder to beat than either of the challengers Superribbie ranks this as 23rd most vulnerable Democratic seat.
District: IN-03
Location Northeastern IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne
Representative Mark Souder (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin 69-31
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Notes on opponents In 2006, Souder actually got outspent – both spent about $700K, but Thomas Hayhurst spent a little more
Current opponents Michael Montagno
Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI
Assessment Gotta be a long shot, but Superribbie ranks it as 68th most vulnerable Republican seat
District: IN-04
Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis
Representative Steve Buyer (R)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 69-28
Bush margin 2004 69-30
Notes on opponents In 2006, David Sanders spent $133K to Buyer’s $500K
Current opponents Nels Anderson
Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment long shot
District: IN-05
Location Central IN, including eastern suburbs of Indianapolis
Representative Dan Burton (R)
First elected 1982
2006 margin 65-31
2004 margin 72-26
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Notes on opponents Katherine Carr, the opponent both times, raised very little money
Current opponents Chester Kelsey and Mary Etta Ruley
Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most conservative per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot
District: IN-06
Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH
Representative Mike Pence (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-31
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Barry Welsh
Demographics 41st fewest Latinos
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable Superribbie ranks him the 79th most vulnerable Republican
District: IN-07
Location Indianapolis and suburbs
Representative None (Julia Carson died in office) special election will be Andre Carson (D) vs. Jonathan Elrod (R)
First elected NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 42-58
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents see above
Demographics 50th most Blacks (29.4%)
Assessment Quite vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 37th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 91
District: IN-08
Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville
Representative Brad Ellsworth (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Notes on opponents Ellsworth ousted Hostetler, and also out-raised him – $1.7 million to $580K
Current opponents Greg Goode or Paul Abramson
Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Vulnerable Superribbie ranks this the 27th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 95
District: IN-09
Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington
Representative Baron Hill (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Notes on opponents Hill and Mike Sodrel have been exchanging this district for years; in 2006, Hill raised $1.9 million to Sodrel’s $2.7 million
Current opponents Sodrel is running, as is Aaron Hawkins
Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment One of the most vulnerable Superribbie ranks this the 7th most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 110
District: IA-01
Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL
Representative Bruce Braley (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Notes on opponents This was an open seat, Braley and the Republican each had about $2.4 million
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)
Assessment Superribbie (link above) gives this a vulnerability of 86 (45th most vul Democrat) but Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent. Of course, if no one runs, it’s completely safe.
District: IA-02
Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids
Representative Dave Loebsack (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Notes on opponents Loebsack ousted Jim Leach, in a race where each spent about $500 K
Current opponents Lee Harder (per WIKI, but perhaps others)
Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)
Assessment Superribbie gives this one a 94, but Harder does not appear to be a serious threat.
District: IA-03
Location Central IA, including Des Moines
Representative Leonard Boswell (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 52-46
2004 margin 55-45
Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)
Notes on opponents In 2006, Boswell and Lamberti each raised about $2 million
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)
Assessment Superribbie gives this a 94; Boswell has had only one comfortable win (in 2000). If Lamberti runs, this may be competitive
District: IA-04
Location Northern central IA, including Ames.
Representative Tom Latham (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 61-39
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Notes on opponents In 2006, Selden Spencer raised about $500K to Latham’s $1.1 million. The 2004 opponent raised less
Current opponents William Myers
Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)
Assessment Superribbie gives this a vulnerability of 95; in national elections IA-04 has been very close. But Latham has won reasonably easily. I don’t know much about Myers
District: IA-05
Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs
Representative Steve King (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 59-36
2004 margin 63-37
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Notes on opponents Joyce Schulte ran in 2004 and 2006, raising about $70K each time
Current opponents :
Rob Hubler
and
Bob Chambers
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)
Assessment Long shot
District: KS-01
Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO
Representative Jerry Moran (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 71-20
2004 margin 91-9 (vs. a Libertarian)
Bush margin 2004 72-26
Notes on opponents John Doll, in 2006, raised about $60K
Current opponents James Bordonaro (no site)
Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot
District: KS-02
Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka
Representative Nancy Boyda (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 51-47
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 59-39
Notes on opponents Boyda ousted Jim Ryun, while spending $300K less than he did ($700K to $1 million)
Current opponents Jim Ryun and Lynn Jenkins
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 3rd most vulnerable Democratic seat, with a score of 112. If Ryun wins the primary, it’s probably not too vulnerable, but Jenkins has a good shot
District: KS-03
Location Kansas City and suburbs
Representative Dennis Moore (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 65-34
2004 margin 55-43
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Notes on opponents In 2006, Chuck Ahner raised $400K to Moore’s $1.8 million; in 2004, Kris Kobach raised $1.2 million to Moore’s $2.4 million
Current opponents Joel Balam, Nick Jordan and possibly Chuck Ahner and Paul Showem
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Superribbie gives KS-03 a 88 (42nd most vulnerable Democrat). Moore had several close races before 2004.
District: KS-04
Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita
Representative Todd Tiahrt (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 66-31
Bush margin 2004 64-34
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents Donald Betts
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment At first glance, this looks like a long shot; but, prior to 2004, Tiahrt had several close races, and Betts, a state senator, is his first serious opponent. Could be interesting
The DCCC spent heavily in this district very late (the last week or two of the campaign). The net result was that Boyda and “friends” barely outspent Ryun and his allies ($1,357,000 total to just over $1.3 million). Considering the timing, Boyda and allies had to pay full price on ads down the stretch. This was the one race nationally where late money from the DCCC made the most difference.
This time around, Nancy Boyda should have a cash advantage. She has $654,279 in the bank compared to $416,241 for Jenkins and $369,789 for Ryun. Look for them to drain each other in the primary. (figures as of 12/31 per the FEC)
Just an aside, but the 30 successful Democratic challengers in 2006 spent in total 85% of the amount that the Republicans (mostly incumbents) did counting third party money. Beyond a certain point, money seemed to have less effect. A challenger who spent $3 million had plenty to make his/her case even if the Republican spent $4.5 million.
The only successful challenger who was completely and totally outspent but still won was Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire. She spent less than 30% what the incumbent Jeb Bradley did (under $300 K to Bradley’s million).
Leonard Boswell has a stiff primary challenge from Ed Fallon before he gets to the general election. Fallon ran for governor in 2006 and carried this congressional district in the primary. (Chet Culver won the primary and won the general election, too, for the Democrats).
held Tiahrt’s district prior to 94, I believe. Dan Glickman represented it for many years as a popular blue-dog. He may have been defeated in 1994, but it was close, and afterwards he was appointed Secretary of Agriculture, in respect to his 18 years of congressional experience on the issues. Later he became head of the Motion Picture Association, his current position, taking over after Jack Valenti and there have been occasional rumors of him running for the seat. Apparently he was in his early thirties when he won in the late 1970s, I believe, because he’s still only in his early sixties, and younger than many first time candidates that have been viable.