On Friday, the DCCC released its list of 90 targeted races (both offense and defense) to watch this year. We’ve transcribed the full list in a few handy charts below — have a look. Italics denote the races that have been given “Red to Blue” status so far.
Offense:
| District | Incumbent | District | Incumbent | District | Incumbent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-02 | OPEN (Everett) | IL-06 | Peter Roskam | NY-03 | Peter King |
| AK-AL | Don Young | IL-10 | Mark Kirk | NY-13 | Vito Fossella |
| AZ-01 | OPEN (Renzi) | IL-11 | OPEN (Weller) | NY-25 | OPEN (Walsh) |
| AZ-03 | John Shadegg | KY-02 | OPEN (Lewis) | NY-26 | Thomas Reynolds |
| CA-04 | OPEN (Doolittle) | LA-04 | OPEN (McCrery) | NY-29 | Randy Kuhl |
| CA-26 | David Dreier | LA-06 | OPEN (Baker) | OH-01 | Steve Chabot |
| CA-50 | Brian Bilbray | MD-01 | OPEN (Gilchrest) | OH-02 | Jean Schmidt |
| CO-04 | Marilyn Musgrave | MI-07 | Tim Walberg | OH-14 | Steve LaTourette |
| CT-04 | Chrissy Shays | MI-09 | Joe Knollenberg | OH-15 | OPEN (Pryce) |
| FL-08 | Ric Keller | MN-03 | OPEN (Ramstad) | OH-16 | OPEN (Regula) |
| FL-09 | Gus Bilirakis | MN-06 | Michele Bachmann | PA-03 | Phil English |
| FL-13 | Vern Buchanan | MO-06 | Sam Graves | PA-06 | Jim Gerlach |
| FL-15 | OPEN (Weldon) | MO-09 | OPEN (Hulshof) | PA-18 | Tim Murphy |
| FL-18 | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | NC-08 | Robin Hayes | VA-02 | Thelma Drake |
| FL-21 | Lincoln Diaz-Balart | NJ-03 | OPEN (Saxton) | VA-10 | Frank Wolf |
| FL-24 | Tom Feeney | NJ-07 | OPEN (Ferguson) | VA-11 | OPEN (Davis) |
| FL-25 | Mario Diaz-Balart | NM-01 | OPEN (Wilson) | WA-08 | Dave Reichert |
| IA-04 | Tom Latham | NM-02 | OPEN (Pearce) | WV-02 | Shelley Moore-Capito |
| ID-01 | Bill Sali | NV-02 | Dean Heller | WY-AL | OPEN (Cubin) |
| NV-03 | Jon Porter |
Defense:
| District | Incumbent | District | Incumbent | District | Incumbent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-05 | Harry Mitchell | IN-02 | Joe Donnelly | NY-24 | Mike Arcuri |
| AZ-08 | Gabrielle Giffords | IN-08 | Brad Ellsworth | NC-11 | Heath Shuler |
| CA-11 | Jerry McNerney | IN-09 | Baron Hill | OH-18 | Zack Space |
| CT-02 | Joe Courtney | IA-03 | Leonard Boswell | PA-10 | Chris Carney |
| CT-05 | Chris Murphy | KS-02 | Nancy Boyda | PA-04 | Jason Altmire |
| FL-16 | Tim Mahoney | KY-03 | John Yarmuth | PA-08 | Patrick Murphy |
| FL-22 | Ron Klein | MN-01 | Tim Walz | TX-17 | Chet Edwards |
| GA-12 | John Barrow | NH-01 | Carol Shea-Porter | TX-22 | Nick Lampson |
| GA-08 | Jim Marshall | NH-02 | Paul Hodes | TX-23 | Ciro Rodriguez |
| IL-08 | Melissa Bean | NY-19 | John Hall | WI-08 | Steve Kagen |
| IL-14 | Bill Foster | NY-20 | Kirsten Gillibrand |
from 4Q 07? or more recently? it’s one way to judge how they’re doing.
58 offensive, 32 defensive races.
The numbers are on the side of the DEM party. No doubt about it. Sheer numbers.
And the RNCC is broke. How in the world is it going to be able to protect 58 endangered seats, let alone try to flip some endangered DEM seats, especially since some of them (Shea-Porter, NH-01) really aren’t endangered?
But I bet they are salivating to get IL-14 back….
drool.
drool.
drool.
20 Republican Reps in Texas and not a single one targeted. It’s a reflection of how far the party deteriorated over the last 20 years. Things are turning around, however. If we could just pick up a few more state reps, we could have fair redistricting, which would put some of these seats in play in 2012.
and yet still very winnable.
A lot of these seem like pipe dreams on both sides. I mean there was some awesome potential, just they never happened in terms of recruitment. I don’t see them happening anymore.
Offense:
CA-50: Bilbray
IA-04: Latham
NY-03: King
NY-13: Fossella
PA-06: Gerlach
VA-02: Kellam
Of course this goes both ways,
Defense:
CT-02: Courtney
CT-05: Murphy
FL-22: Klein
IN-02: Donnelly
IN-08: Ellsworth
IA-03: Boswel
MN-01: Walz
NH-02: Hodes
NY-19: Hall
NY-24: Arcuri
NC-11: Schuler
OH-18: Space
TX-17: Edwards
TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez
I notice one end got exaggerated more than the other.
This might be a stretch but if the DCCC target the GA 10th district, democrats potentially can pull an upset in this district that is 2/3 republican. The GOP Primary is going to be brutal & the winner of that primary is going to be bloodied & beatened up for Bobby Saxon who is a conservative democrat who supports gun rights.
First let me say, I like the DCCC’s list. I especially like that they’re going all-in on Florida. There’s so much low-hanging fruit there that just gets ignored year after year. That said, I went through and found all the GOP representatives in marginal/swing territory who aren’t on the list, and ordered them by PVI (stopping at R+4). Most of them, I assume they’re missing from the list because they don’t have strong challengers (although that didn’t seem to stop some other inclusions on the DCCC list… PA-06 and IL-06 come to mind). On the other hand, some of these omissions I’ve never even heard of, and it may just be because some of these backbenchers maintain such low profiles no one has ever thought of challenging before! (The old ‘hide under a pile of coats’ strategy…)
PA-15 gets a personal WTF?, as I thought Sam Bennett was supposed to be a credible challenger. And FL-10, I’ll give that an honorary WTF? too, as we really need to throw some money at that seat in order to mess with Bill Young’s head and hasten his retirement decision (although I don’t know if we have anyone at all lined up to take him on). Anyway, this list contains a number of the other districts that always seem to be ‘white whales,’ that always seem to be in range for an easy harpooning but never get the money or candidates they need, like NJ-02 and OH-12.
Especially if Obama is the nominee. Jim Esch came within 9% last time, but polling in the 2nd CD suggests Obama might actually win in the district. If he can do that, Esch or Carter might be able to knock off Terry.
I’m calling two “shock the world” upsets:
Debbie Cook knocks off Dana Rohrbacher in CA-46.
Andrea Miller does the same to J. Randy Forbes in VA-04.
I love the fact the Democrats are being more aggressive this time around. Sure, the list isn’t perfect, but it is better than them playing defense.
a few more that are out in somewhat darker red territory, but may actually be better bets than anything else on my list.
IL-18 R+5 Open
Although we still don’t know who our candidate will be after Dick Versace bailed out, this still seems like a good bet because of a) the GOP candidate, who is a twenty-something who seems to reveal a deeper and deeper level of ignorance each time he opens his mouth, and b) serious Obama coattails.
VA-05 R+6 Goode
We’ve got a solid candidate here (Tom Perriello?), and Virgil Goode is one of those wingnuts who’s perpetually extracting his foot from his mouth.
CA-44 R+6 Calvert
CA-41 R+9 Lewis
CA-44 R+10 Miller
There aren’t that many ‘scandal seats’ left; they’ve all either flipped to the Dems already or are open (AZ-02, CA-04). Except for these three adjacent seats in the Inland Empire, all held by guys currently under investigation for various forms of corruption. Add in a huge Latino influx into these districts since the last re-districting (although I don’t know how many of them are voters), and you might have something here.
Some of those races you listed seem more vulnerable to take-over. PA-15 oversight also gets a WTF from me. Garrett has a good challenger in Schulman.
There had been rumors circulating about two newly elected NJ State Senators, either Jeff Van Drew (D-Cape May) or Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic City) challenging Frank LoBiondo in NJ-02. Both knocked off incumbent Republicans in conservative-ish districts in a year that was only mediocre for NJ Dems. Hopefully one of them will jump in?
The DCCC means it when they decide to back a race. Here at Gary Peters For Congress we’ve had events with Congressman Emanuel, Chairman Van Hollen, and we have one tomorrow with Majority Leader Hoyer. This support, combined with extraordinary support from the Michigan Delegation including Senators Levin and Stabenow, has excited Democrats in the district.
I was thrilled to see the race included as a Red to Blue target. MI-09 is R+0. We’re ready to beat Joe Knollenberg.
…you put Schock and Oberweis into the same room?
What a strange coincidence that the only PA race with a progressive about win the nomination isn’t on the list. Siobhan Bennett is a wonderful progressive, and she should get DCCC support in the future. The insular and conservative Lehigh Valley Democratic establishment hates Bennett. She doesn’t suck up to them. Of course, God forbid the Lehigh Valley Democrats lift a finger to find a “good” alternative to challenge Dent. The candidates in PA-06 are craptacular.
Is a real mystery. One thing I have seen is that McCotter has latched on to two things that are prevalent in the district, he has made major inroads with labor households, and he has capitalized on his catholicism.
FL-10 is like DE-At Large, one of those seats we will win pretty much automatically once the incumbent retires. Each of those reps (Young and Castle) have reasons to retire. Castle has health problems and is in the minority. Young is the senior Republican in point of years of service in the House. He was pushed aside years ago and there is no way that moderate Bill Young ever gets that chairmanship back (some doubt whether it goes to an honest person).
OH – I am very happy to see OH-14 on the list. In the 4 Mar primary the Democrats combined to +44,046 votes as compared to the Republicans in OH-14. OH-03 also had Democrats at +31,084 – another potential Midwestern pick up depending on if our candidate is a good one.
FL – with eight seats in play (and on the list) with a potential ninth (FL-10) – I call FL the “jail break” for Democrats this election. If McCann picks Gov Crist as VP -will this be due to the need for a “rear guard” action against losing these House seats?
VA – with three seats already on the list, and the potential for more (VA-5), a Virginian such as Sen Webb as VP on the ticket combined with a State already drifting blue may lead to great, synergistic results
Van Drew rumors even back when he was in the Assembly. He’s probably waiting for an open seat, or at least to solidify his position in the Senate first. (Even though his jumping in could scare LoBiondo out, just like Adler jumping in scared Saxton out.)
Shea Porter (NH-01) is safe? Have you looked at the history of that district.
I live in that district and I’m proud to have her represent me … but I just don’t see how it can be considered safe. It’s very much a swing/R-leaning district.
I have a feeling CA-04 is going to turn blue this year. With two Republican carpetbaggers fighting each other to take over for Doolittle, Charlie should be able to make this competitive.
The “specials” were deemed safer than the freshmen.
Yes, Bill Foster is on the endangered list but Andre Carson in IN-7 is not. That is rather startling to me. In fact, the omission of Nikki Tsongas and Laura Richarsdson also makes sense.
Missing among the freshmen (as far as I could tell) were Ed Perlmutter, CO-7; Bruce Braley, IA-1; Dave Loesback, IA-2; Peter Welch, VT-AL; and the redoubtable Joe Sestak in PA-7. Loesback is a surprise. A flock of Republicans have filed to take him down whereas Braley only got a surprise challenger in the last 1:15 of the filing period (an hour and fifteen minutes, no exact time filed).
This time around, Leonard Boswell’s principal challenger is fellow Democrat Ed Fallon. Boswell is a perpetual money drain who cost the DCCC nearly $800,000 last cycle. Still, he does not belong on this list and Loesback does.
Is Michael Arcuri really being pushed hard in NY-24. Didn’t John Hall get dropped off the GOP list? Still Kirsten Gillibrand is getting a fairly strong challenger.
And yes, NJ-5 needs to be on this list, pronto. Camille Abate’s stupid, vain primary challenge prevented attention in the 2006 cycle and she is doing it again. You are doing more than anyone else in the district to give Scott Garrett a free ride. Hang it up, Camille and tune in to the Mean Jean Schmidt/Barbara Cubin of the Northeast, DCCC.
Named last Thursday. At least that is her TV name; her full (married name) is Colleen Callahan Burns. She has 31 years on the schock jock and clearly is not nearly as gaffe prone. She’s been running for this since Versace dropped out and has slowly seemed to eliminate the competition.
I’m late to make this observation, but lemme go on record how pleased and proud I am to see 14 districts on this DCCC target list are in the former Confederacy. In 2006 it wasn’t half as many, and Larry Kissell’s race in NC was the worst missed opportunity of the season. And sure, 8 of these targets are in one not-so-Southern state, Florida. But that’s O.K. Most of the South ain’t so Southern anymore, if Southern means backwater Dixiecrats, and Strom Thurmond-type racist Repubs. The South is changing as the George Wallace-in-the-schoolhouse-door generation dies off, and younger voters take a fresh look at politics. So it is time that we take the battle to the Repubs and put them on the defensive in a region they thought was all theirs.