In the 2006 House Races, the Democratic Party picked up a total of 31 seats (incl. VT-AL). Unfortunately we missed picking up seats in 19 very close contests, by less than 10,000 votes in each District. We ended up short by 88,577 votes or an average of 4,662 votes per District. By contrast our candidates won 16 seats in districts by less than 10,000 votes. We captured/held those 16 seats by a total of 82,480 votes for an average of 5,155 votes per District.
Some have asserted that if the DCCC had reacted to some of these races and provided necessary funding, we could have picked up more seats. Others have claimed that the DCCC did the best it could with the resources on hand and the fact that the RNCC had to pour money & resources into normally safe GOP Districts, benefited us nationwide.
I’ll let y’all come to your own conclusions about that, because the purpose of this Diary is more from a Statistical/Tactical Perspective for 2008 regarding the lessons we’ve learned from the 2006 Midterms.
Caveat: Races won by over 10,000 votes (either side) are not included in the Parameters of this Study, though any number of those could be in play in ’08, plus many other seats may be on the horizon that were not in-play in 2006. On the same note, many of these races shown below may not be close for us in ’08, but are sure to get some attention.
More below the fold. Enjoy!
1. CT-02
Courtney-D 121,248 50.002%
Simmons-R 121,165 49.998%
Margin= +83 D
2. NC-08
Hayes-R 60,926 50.01%
Kissell-D 60,597 49.99%
Margin = +329 R
3. FL-13
Buchanan-R 119,309 50.008%
Jennings-D 118,940 49.992%
Margin = +369 R
4. NM-01
Wilson-R 105,986 50.02%
Madrid-D 105,125 49.98%
Margin = +861 R
5. GA-12
Barrow-D 71,651 50.3%
Burns-R 70,787 49.7%
Margin = +864 D
6. WY-AL
Cubin-R 93,336 48.3%
Trauner-D 92,324 47.8%.
Rankin-Lbt 7,481 3.9%
Margin = +1,012 R
7. OH-15
Pryce-R 110,714 50.2%
Kilroy-D 109,659 49.8%
Margin = +1,055 R
8. PA-08
Murphy-D 125,667 50.3%
Fitzpatrick-R 124,146 49.7%
Margin = +1,521 D
9. GA-08
Marshall-D 80,660 50.55%
Collins-R 78,908 49.45%
Margin = +1,752 D
10. OH-02
Schmidt-R 120,112 50.45%
Wulsin-D 117,595 49.39%
Noy-NP 298 0.13
Condit-NP 76 0.03
Margin = +2,517 R
11. NJ-07
Ferguson-R 98,399 49.43%
Stender-D 95,454 47.95%
Abrams-WTD 3,176 1.6%
Young-Lbt 2,046 1.02%
Margin = +2,945 R
12. PA-06
Gerlach-R 118,807 51.9%
Murphy-D 115,806 48.1%
Margin = +3,001 R
13. NY-25
Walsh-R-C 110,525 50.8%
Maffei-D 107,108 49.2%
Margin = +3,417 R
14. NV-03
Porter-R 102,232 48.5%
Hafen-D 98,261 46.6%
Silvestri-Lbt 5,157 2.4%
Hansen-I 5,329 2.5%
Margin = +3,971 R
15. FL-16
Mahoney-D 115,832 49.55%
Foley (Negron)-R 111,415 47.66%
Ross-NPA 6,526 2.8%
Margin = +4,417 D
16. NY-19
Hall-D-WFP 100,119 51.2%
Kelly-R-C 95,359 48.8%
Margin = +4,760 D
17. IL-06
18. Roskam-R 91,382 51.35%
Duckworth-D 86,572 48.65%
Margin = +4,810 R
18. VA-02
Drake-R 88,777 51.27%
Kellam-D 83,901 48.73%
Margin = +4,876 R
19. NH-01
Shea-Porter-D 100,691 51.3%
Bradley-R 95,527 48.7%
Margin = +5,164 D
20. KY-03
Yarmuth-D 122,489 50.62%
Northrup-R 116,568 48.18%
Mancini-Lbt 2,134 0.9%
Parker-I 774 0.3%
Margin = +5,921 D
21. WI-08
Kagen-D 141,570 50.95%
Gard-R 135,622 49.05%
Margin = +5,948 D
22. IA-02
Loesback-D 107,683 51.52%
Leach-R 101,701 48.48%
Margin = +5,982 D
23.CO-04
Musgrave-R 109,732 45.61%%
Paccione-D 103,748 43.12%
Eidness-Lbt 27,133 11.28%
Margin = +5,984 R
24. NY-29
Kuhl-R-C 106,077 51.46%
Massa-D-WFP 100,044 48.54%
Margin = +6,033 R
25. CT-04
Shays-R 106,510 50.96%
Farrell- 99,45 47.58%
Maymin-Lbt 3,058 0.15%
Margin: + 7,060 R
26. WA-08
Reichert-R 129,362 51.46%
Burner-D 122,021 48.54%
Margin = +7,341 R
27. KS-02
Boyda-D 114,139 50.6%
Ryun-R 106,329 47.1%
Tucker-F 5,094 2.2%
Margin = +7,810 D
28. AZ-05
Mitchell-D 101.838 50.4%
Hayworth-R 93,815 46.4%
Severin-I 6,357 3.1%
Margin = +8, 023 D
29. FL-22
Klein-D 108,688 50.9%
Shaw-R 100,663 47.1%
Evangelista-I 4,254 2.0%
Margin = +8,025 D
30. NY-26
Reynolds-R-C 109,257 51.98%
Davis-D-WFP 100,914 48.02%
Margin = +8,343 R
31. CA-04
Doolittle-R 135,818 49.1%
Brown-D 126,999 45.9%
Warren-Lbt 14,076 11.28%
Margin = +8,819 R
32. OH-01
Chabot-R 105,680 52.25%
Cranley-D 96,584 47.75%
Margin = +9,096 R
33. PA-04
Altmire-D 124,674 51.9%
Hart-R 115,394 48.1%
Margin = 9,280 D
34. MI-07
. Walberg-R 122,348 49.93%
Renier-D 112,665 45.98%
Hutchinson-Lbt 3,788 1.55%
Horn-UST 3,611 1.47%
Shwarz-R(WI) 2,614 1.07
Margin =+ 9,683 R
35. IN-09
Hill-D 110,454 50.02%
Sodrel-R 100,469 45.48%
Schansberg-Lbt 9,893 4.5%
Margin = +9,985 D
These Election Results are based on Certified Election Returns from the individual States’ Secretary of State/Board of Elections Sites, or in the case of Illinos, the two County sites, Cook & DuPage, as the State site is pitiful.(The Commonwealth of Virginia site gets an A++.) Should anyone come up with varying results, please feel free to post them and the source info, so that it can be verified.
Percentage calculations are rounded and may not add up to 100.000%. If anyone would like the links to SOS BOE sites for each/any race, please ask and I will provide in a Comment reply.
Originally posted at Daily Kos on 12/18/06. Some typos regarding vote totals and percentages have been since corrected there and here. Thanks for any input.
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In 2002 and 2004, CNN updated their first-rate results page at some point soon after the official Secretary of State numbers were released. Hopefully, they’ll do so again with this year’s numbers so it can be a universal source of final election returns.
It’s interesting that you mention the wide disparity in the quality of SoS websites across the country. I concur with you that Virginia’s is excellent, and am also proud of my home state of Minnesota’s website, which has volumes of precinct-level micro-data.
I usually visit the New England states’ SoS websites since it’s almost impossible to get countywide returns rather than precinct-by-precinct data in those six states. Connecticut and New Hampshire have pretty decent websites, as does Vermont. Massachusetts’ website, at least in 2004, was dreadful. Do you happen to know of any websites where county-level data is available for the New England states, so I don’t have to add by calculator every precinct in Rhode Island and Connecticut to find out how Lieberman and Whitehouse done at the county level?
Thnx. Other than David Leip’s site I know of no others – http://www.uselectio…
It is truly amazing that SoS sites can lack Countywide or Precinct level Data, but I think alot of that is due to their reticence to avail themselves of the technology, or they don’t get enough requests for that type of info, so they don’t post it. Virginia’s is great as not only do you get Precinct level data, you get results for all Statewide Elections by Congressional District. California at least will report some but not all Statewide races by CD’s, nada on Precinct level, you have to go to the County sites and they may not always have that.
CNN hasn’t updated 2006 results in a while.
CQ Politics issued a Final results for Statewide/House elections but I found an error in what they reported in Illinois – 06, so I sent Bob Berenson an e-mail with the links which should provide a corrected result.
I look forward to the day when we have easily accessible Precinct/County & CD level results in all States, hopefully I’ll still be alive by then..LOL.
For me, Database info like this is an integral part in our planning needs for elections and also a tool for monitoring skewed results due to faulty voting equipment,etc.
I wish I had saved the original Red to Blue list, and also the revised one issued 2 weeks prior to the Election.
But off the top of my head I can think of the following Candidates that were early on the list and they didn’t make it:
IL-06 Duckworth, Lois Murphy PA-06, Jennings FL-13 (subject to change), VA-02 Kellam, Madrid NM-01, Derby NV-02,et al. On the up side included were Shuler NC-11,John Salazar CO-03, Allyson Schwartz PA-13 and Jim Matheson UT-02, who all pretty much had a cakewalk.
I’d really like to see how many of the 22 targeted for funding by the DCC actually succeeded. Anyone have a copy of that info?
(Wow only 22??).
and yes, I remember the DCC had more than the initial 22. Which the DCCC sat on for some time.The big question is, how much did the late assignment benefit those candidates in funding? FYI, I’m still getting fund requests from Jerry McNerney-D CA-11. Any chance the DCCC disloses publicly/on-line such expenditures by Congressional District?