1Q House Fundraising Round-up

31 thoughts on “1Q House Fundraising Round-up”

1. Good news all round but particularly in open seats. Reasonable quarters in longshots like MO-9, LA-4, NM-2, OH-7, PA-5, WY-AL  

2. Shouldn’t that be 1Q raised, not 4Q raised?

3. This is from Charleston.net today (4/17)

   It noted Ketner outpaced Brown in fundraising – she with $413,875 to his $136,479 – during the past quarter. Brown still has raised about $125,000 more overall, however.

    

4. You have:
   

   MI-07   Tim Walberg   R-inc.   $265K   $604K   $823K
   
   MI-07 Mark Schauer D $323K $751K $885K
   
   MI-07 Sharon Renier D $349K $645K $730K

   But here’s Sharon Renier’s actual fundraising for the quarter:

   1Q Raised: $275.00 (No “K”)
   
   Cash-on-hand: $45.04
   
   Cycle-to-date: $1,830.00

   Mind you, I’d love it if she was raising $349,000. For one thing, it would mean two Democrats in a very Republican district could raise ridiculous amounts of money, and would be a great sign of strength for the party. But, unfortunately, that is not the case.

   Schauer and Walberg’s numbers are right, but I think maybe you accidentally copied Gary Peters’ data into her row.

   Still, thanks for compiling this! It’s a great resource!

5. Do we have a realistic shot at either seat?  For that matter, Al-03?

   It looks like OH and NY are gonna be killing fields…

6. 1. 1Q raised column – the numbers keep getting italicized here and there?  I don’t see any correlation to it.  Mostly in Illinois.  

   2. Scott Harper, Democratic challenger in Illinois raised something like 133K and total it says he’s raised 110K.  Mistake?  Or am I missing something?

   3. We should have a list of Republican held open seats where Democrats are leading the pack (For example, IL-11, AZ-01, etc.)  And vice versa for Republicans (OR-05, AL-05, etc.)

7. John Barrow can feel safe enough now to take a step or two to the left, if he’s so inclined. His voting record makes sense for, say, an R+10 district, but the guy’s got a D+2 that’s almost half African-American.

   I think it’s time to add a few more names to the “Likely R” column of the big SSP House scoreboard. I’d start with Tom Perriello in VA-05. He’s clearly playing to win. (In fact, he seems like a great candidate for Blue Majority endorsement.) I might move Jane Mitakides in OH-03 up to “Likely R” too… she’s outraising Turner, it’s an R+3 that was held by a Dem prior to Turner, and with at least three hotter targets in Ohio, this one might sneak past everyone on the radar.

   As for OR-05, I don’t think it’s as dire as the numbers first look. Schrader and Marks only jumped in the race about a month ago, and Erickson is a self-funding millionaire who’s probably just writing himself checks. (Actually, do these FEC numbers reflect checks you write yourself? I’d never stopped to wonder about that till now.) As for Mannix, well, he has access to the coffers of well-known millionaire sex weirdo Loren Parks. But I think this is one the netroots needs to get on top of once the primary is over; the lay of the land favors the Dems, but they’ll need outside infusions of money.

8. AZ-08, woh!  Tim Bee is going to be incredibly formidable and we very well could lose.  This will be a race we will need to watch and keep an eye on.  They already had polling a bit back showing both well under 50% and with Giffords with not much of a lead.  

   CA-46, why isn’t Rohrabacher raising anything?  It’s a little late for retirements.

   CT-4, looking good!  

   Florida Trio, well done!  I imagine Ros-Lehtinen will pick-up her fundraising now that she sees she has a challenge.  FL-18 is certainly our least likely pick-up of the three, and it shows.  The other two, awesome.  Raul Martinez is putting on the A-game.

   IA-4, Latham’s challenger didn’t do half-bad.  The seat is already Democratic leaning, I could see this being one of the races that coattails help a bit and it being one of the first seats to flip Dem if the election moves past just Democrats doing well to Democrats obliterating and taking everything possible with them.  Kind of like in 2006 with Laesch (if that’s how you spell it), safe incumbent and then all of a sudden, wait what he lost?  If the fundraising continues to be this on par and if this Kurt Meyer runs a good race, who knows, maybe the overwhelming anti-Republican attitude could carry him over.

   IL-10, man is Kirk raising some duckets…..  It came close last time, add in Obama coattails and I think we’ve got it.

   KS-2, probably the most endangered incumbent.  And Boyda doesn’t want any DCCC money, great principle, could cost her the race.  We’ll just have to see…

   LA-4, excellent to see us outraising the Republicans.  Hell, we all thought 2008 would bring about the end of Democrats in Louisiana, could 2008 actually be the reemergence of Democrats in Louisiana?!

   MN-6, my home CD, I really don’t think we have much of a shot here….  Bachmann is a complete nutjob and we can do great advertising that but…  I don’t know, Im quite pessimistic yet hopeful.

   MO-6, EXCELLENT!!!  Kay Barnes is an excellent candidate and her fundraising is spectacular.

   NM-1, I’m also pessimistic about this race.  This is the one seat I think the GOP did a great job at recruiting and I think this will be the one race to really disappoint us.  This should be our seat, it goes blue for President, but for some reason, I feel like we will lose…  Maybe it’s because there has to be one seat I feel we wont win come election day.

   NY-29, is Randy Kuhl even running for re-election?  I predict another NY-GOP slaughter in 2008.  They’ll lose three congressional seats, the state Senate, and will only have three congressional seats left!  One that will be redistricted out and two that will be ours pending retirements.  Seems almost impossible that such a large state will eventually have 0 Republicans at the federal level but congrats everyone, the Dems did it first!

   OH-2, I still don’t think Wulsin will win or that we should bother spending a cent (it seems to me she will just lose the following election after she wins with Schmidt gone) but her fundraising is quite awesome so we’ll see.  Still seems like a waste of DCCC funds….

   OR-5, why don’t we have a candidate yet who is going to actually do something?!

   SC-01, what the hell?  Who is this Linda Ketner and how did she kick so much ass?

   VA-5, looks like a race we should/could get behind

   VA-10, same as above, looks like a good race.  And Warner coattails, those will help out VA-5,10, 11

   WA-8, we will win this one

   WV-2, very disappointed we lost Unger, very impressed with Barth.  Kind of sucks she wasn’t in the race from the get-go getting to raise money.  Barth is at such a disadvantage now.

9. not only great news, but very useful

   I am working on a BIG diary….an analysis of every race that was close (less than 10 points) in 2006, and this table will make it a lot easier to update fundraising information

10. That is, is debt subtracted?

    1. Link

       While she did post $414K in receipts, this chart compiles money raised — these figures don’t include candidate loans like the $50K that Ketner donated to herself.  If we did post receipts instead of money raised, many of these Republican challengers would look a bit better in terms of their 1Q hauls.

11. Being from the South, I can tell you that the Josh Segall race is one to watch.  That district is ripe for flipping, with nearly 50% Dem performance and being 1/3 African-American.  The last challenger got almost 40% of the vote while spending only $7000 to Rogers’ $1 million, and in ’02 the Dem lost be less than 4000 votes after the DCCC pulled their money with 12 days to go (crazy).  Segall is worked a bunch of campaigns and knows what he’s doing, as evidenced by these fundraising numbers…he outraised the incumbent 2.5 to 1 and brought in more than any other congressional candidate, D or R, incumbent or challenger, in the entire state!  Go Segall in AL-03!
    
    This is another big Obama effect race too…  

12. I’m getting concerned about John Yarmuth in KY-03.  He knocked out Anne Northup 51-49 in 2006, after she had held the seat for ten years.  She has always proven to be a fundraising monster along with her mentor, Mitch McConnell.  

    I was so happy when Yarmuth won and he has not disappointed.  His Progressive Punch score is 95%, and for a district that is something like D +1, that is better than we could hope for from a freshman.  Indeed, considering the PVI and his PP score, he may be the most outstanding freshman we have.  He has condemned Bush’s reckless Iraq policy and has voted against expanding Bush’s unchecked warrantless wiretapping powers on American citizens.  And he’s from Kentucky!

    In 2006, there was no presidential race and no state-wide race in KY.  This year, current polls have McCain winning KY by more than 30 points (it will come down).  Plus, McConnell will pour money into Ky-03 (his old hometown) to help Northup.

    In 1Q, Northup outraised Yarmuth, although he still leads in cash on hand, having had more time.  

    I’d love to see the Netroots adopt Yarmuth, or really push to help him out.  He seems to be off our radar screens, and he deserves better.  Indeed, only 27 contributions to him have been made on Act Blue.  http://actblue.com/entity/fund…

    1. Republican held Open seats where Democrats are leading the fundraising:
       
       AZ-01 – Ann Kirkpatrick, IL-11 – Debbie Halvorson, LA-04 – Paul Carmouche, NY-25 – Dan Maffei, NY-26 – Jon Powers, OH-07 Sharon Neurhardt, VA-11 Gerry Connelly

       Democratic held Open seats where Republicans are leading the fundraising:
       
       AL-05 – Wayne Parker, OR-05 – Mike Erikson

       Also, I recommend putting up numbers for NM-03, NJ-01, CO-02, and ME-01 for their respective Democratic primaries.  Although ME-01 probably has Pingree running away with it, and Don Wiviott sounded like he was going to self fund whatever it took to win, so that race might not be needed either.  

       Also – FL-15 = competitive Republican open-seat district where Democrats don’t have a frontrunner or top tier candidate.  I suppose it looks like Bill Posey (R) is going to start running away with it financially.  

13. Currently, slightly less than 10% of House Republicans are women (19 out of 198 filled seats per the Clerk of the House of Representatives).  For Democrats the number is much higher and is around 22%.

    For Democrats, women were the leading fund-raisers (presumed leader and/or nominee) in 28 of the 123 races on your big board.  That percentage (22.7%) is not markedly different than for Democratic House members as a whole.  Five of the Democratic women were incumbents defending their seats.

    Among Republicans, women were the leading fund-raisers in just 13 of 123 seats with eight of the 13 being Republican incumbents defending their seats.  One of the remaining five, Anne Northrup, is seeking to regain her seat.  Again, the results are surprisingly typical for current Republican House membership as a whole.

    Given the number of retirements (Deb Pryce, Heather Wilson, Barbara Cubin)and deaths (JoAnn Davis), the number of Republican women is likely to decline slightly while the number of Democratic women in the House is likely to increase.

    Last cycle, 27 of the 30 successful Democratic challengers raised $1 million or more and one of the other three (Nancy Boyda) went over $1 million if DCCC expenditures are counted).  Only David Loebsack and Carol Shea-Porter managed to win with less and Loebsack was competing against Jim Leach in a race where neither man spent much (Leach was a little over $500 K; Loebsack was over $400 k).
    
    Shea-Porter while nowhere near a million yet has already raised a lot more than she did in 2006.

14. Are off.  He’s raised over 700K total.  

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